With China being the world’s largest car market, and the largest market of many of our carmakers, getting good and timely data is essential for stock analysts and journalists alike. Bloomberg has an exasperated story that cries about the absolute mess in China when it comes to hard data. It also describes the great lengths analysts go to when gauging Chinese car sales. No wonder the analyst reports are often messier than even the messiest Chinese data:
- “Yankun Hou, an award-winning auto industry analyst at UBS AG (UBSN), counts Toyotas and BMWs in the parking lots of car factories in China using satellite images from Google Maps to gauge inventory buildups.” TTAC says: Not a good idea. Actually, extremely bad. Google Maps is highly unreliable in China, with maps off by 100 yards or more. People got lost in the desert of Inner Mongolia and died while relying on Google Maps on their cellphones.
- “Scott Laprise at CLSA Asia Pacific Markets said he pretends to be a customer and takes snapshots of showrooms with his BlackBerry to gauge retail demand.” TTAC says: Just watch for the salesmen flashing Vs with their fingers while grinning into the camera.
- “At Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Jeremy Yeo checks order flows at auto parts manufacturers.” TTAC says: Better, but parts manufacturers are secretive. I often asked why they don’t show their wares on-line, only to receive as an answer: “Oh, no. Then the competition would know what we are doing.”
- “Erwin Sanft at BNP Paribas SA (BNP) oversees a monthly survey of 70 dealerships across China.” TTAC says: That seems to be the best idea. However, see parts manufacturers.
The article complains about the well-known fact that reliable data is very hard to come by in China. True.
“Analysts and economists have complained that China’s numbers are opaque and that the country’s growth figures may be overstated.” True.
“With cars, one complaint is that unlike the U.S., Germany and Japan, China doesn’t release figures on private car registrations.” Not true.
Germany and Japan release data based on true registrations (not just private) as compiled by the governments. Just like in China, U.S. sales data are based on reports from automakers. These reports are known to have their issues. (U.S. data compiled by the DMVs are available, but usually with a lot of delay, and nobody bothers.)
Bloomberg goes on to suggest that China should release data based on official registration data. Good idea. For a while, the China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC) released monthly data that allegedly were based on registration data compiled by the Public Security Bureaus (PSB) that are in charge of auto registrations in China. CATARC made headlines because their numbers were released a week in advance of the usually laggardly China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). However, CATARC data were vastly different from the CAAM data. After months of confusion, CATARC was told to shut up and release no more.
The odd thing is that Bloomberg was a big fan of CATARC, back in 2010. Forgot so fast?
Duuuhhh. Yes.
Nice melons.
Careful. Wait… wait… look for the Adam’s Apple!
That’s Thailand.
They’re imitation knock-offs…
Yankun Hou, an award-winning auto industry analyst at UBS AG (UBSN), counts Toyotas and BMWs in the parking lots of car factories in China using satellite images from Google Maps to gauge inventory buildups.
I don’t understand this at all. Hou is counting what the employees are driving? I don’t understand what’s quoted above at all.
Never mind!
Counting cars using google maps….? I wonder if he knows that those are just pics and not real time images? I suppose when he did his second or third count he saw that the numbers of parked cars hadn’t changed.
China has every incentive to make the growth and sells numbers messy, this is by design.
They are partnering with every manufacturer that wants to produce goods there, guess who’s gonna keep all the plants, manufacturing processess, designs and tooling after all this goes belly up? China rigged the game in they favor so that they win if this continues or if it fails.
“China has every incentive to make the growth and sells numbers messy, this is by design.”
Sometimes, there IS…no Conspiracy. Let’s give the possibility of Incompetence its due.
“Never ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence.”
–variously attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte and Robert Heinlein.
Nevertheless, my first memory of China was watching Tienanmen Square on TV, so I’m gonna go with malice on this one.
My limited experience in Chinese market research is very similar, and I don’t think the numbers are going to change any time soon. The only people who seem to truly want hard numbers are people on the outside looking to setup shop or invest… at the most benign level, the business culture of the locals is rather indifferent to having hard national numbers. Having had so much room to grow into, not as many see the same need in accurate market sizing as is outside of China.
If only the “sons” of Sun Yat Sen were as honest as campaigning USA politicians.
Bon-Kyu-Bon FTW!