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August sales numbers caught analysts by surprise. They had expected a strong August, but they did not aim high enough. All but Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.
| Rank | Analyst | GM | Ford | Chrysler | SAAR | SAAR Diff | OEM Diff | Overall |
| 1 | Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) | 6.4% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 14.5 | 0.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% |
| 2 | John Sousanis (Ward’s) | 1.6% | 11.0% | 16.0% | 14.4 | 0.9% | 12.4% | 13.3% |
| 3 | Alec Gutierrez (Kelley) | 3.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 14.4 | 0.9% | 14.4% | 15.3% |
| 4 | Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) | 3.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 14.2 | 2.3% | 14.0% | 16.3% |
| 5 | Brian Johnson (Barclays) | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 14.2 | 2.3% | 16.3% | 18.6% |
| 6 | Joseph Spak (RBC) | 2.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 14.3 | 1.6% | 17.6% | 19.2% |
| 7 | Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) | 0.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 14.3 | 1.6% | 17.7% | 19.3% |
| 8 | Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) | 3.9% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 14.3 | 1.6% | 18.3% | 19.9% |
| 9 | Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) | 1.0% | 3.4% | 16.0% | 14.0 | 3.6% | 20.6% | 24.2% |
| 10 | Patrick Archambault (Goldman) | 1.2% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 13.9 | 4.3% | 24.0% | 28.3% |
| 11 | Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) | NA | NA | NA | 14.5 | 0.2% | 300.0% | 300.2% |
| 12 | Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) | NA | NA | NA | 14.3 | 1.6% | 300.0% | 301.6% |
| 13 | Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) | NA | NA | NA | 14.2 | 2.3% | 300.0% | 302.3% |
| 14 | George Magliano (IHS) | NA | NA | NA | 14.1 | 3.0% | 300.0% | 303.0% |
| 15 | Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) | NA | NA | NA | 14.0 | 3.6% | 300.0% | 303.6% |
| Average | 3.0% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 14.2 | ||||
| Actual | 10.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 14.53 |
Caldwell called the unexpectedly high SAR of 14.5 million exactly (save for a rounding error). She also came pretty close to the actual showing of the D3. Jessica takes a well earned top spot in the August round of Grade the Analysts.
Caldwell shares the podium with industry prognosticators of Wards and Kelly, with TrueCar in place four. The bankers are far behind.
3 Comments on “Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Carries August, Hits SAAR Bullseye...”
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Why isn’t the bottom ten just cut off? It’s ALWAYS the bankers. Their predictions aren’t worth the scrolling.
After watching these predictions for months, it’s obvious they havea pro-foreign car bias and and an anti-American car bias. They want the American car industry to fail and actively promote that agenda.
Jessica Caldwell consistently gets closer than any other analyst, so why even bother, just listen to her. (and bankers are just plain stupid, we already know that)