Two days ago, we heard that TrueCar expects a whopper of a November. Now, Kelley Bluebook and Edmunds have submitted their forecasts also. All agree: This will be a whopper of a November. More or less.
| Unit Sales Forecast November 2012 | ||||||
| TrueCar | Kelley | Edmunds | ||||
| Manufacturer | Nov’12 | YoY | Nov’12 | YoY | Nov’12 | YoY |
| Chrysler | 126,615 | 18.1% | 120,800 | 12.7% | 120,965 | 12.9% |
| Ford | 168,963 | 1.5% | 167,200 | 0.5% | 171,887 | 3.0% |
| GM | 196,575 | 9.0% | 193,100 | 7.0% | 190,236 | 5.5% |
| Honda | 111,108 | 32.4% | 108,150 | 28.9% | 112,354 | 33.9% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 97,430 | 12.5% | 94,150 | 8.7% | ||
| Nissan | 86,527 | 1.6% | 83,250 | -2.3% | 88,573 | 4.0% |
| Toyota | 161,184 | 16.8% | 158,000 | 14.5% | 162,250 | 17.6% |
| Volkswagen | 47,264 | 24.0% | 48,150 | 26.3% | ||
| Industry | 1,120,088 | 12.7% | 1,085,000 | 9.1% | 1,107,378 | 11.3% |
Kelley Blue Book is less enthusiastic than TrueCar. It expects sales to increase by 9.1 percent to 1,085,000 units in November. Which would translate into a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 14.7 million in November.
Edmunds is more on TrueCar’s side. It estimates November sales to increase by 11.3 percent.
On the OEM side, all three more or less agree, very much less when it comes to Nissan. TrueCar and Edmunds see them gaining, Kelley expects Nissan to lose 4 percent in November.
One thing appears to be clear: Ford, GM, and Nissan will lose market share in November, Honda, Toyota and Volkswagen will gain.
We will get the definitive word on Monday.
