Car sales accelerate their decline in Europe. The market for new cars was down fourteen months in a row in November, dropping by 10.3 percent compared with November 2011, says the European manufacturers association ACEA. From January to November, 11.25 million new cars changed hands in the EU, 7.6 percent less than in the same period a year ago. Sales in Europe have not been that bad since 1993.
| New car sales Europe November 2012 | ||||||
| Nov | Nov | % Chg | Jan – Nov | Jan – Nov | % Chg | |
| ’12 | ’11 | 12/11 | ’12 | ’11 | 12/11 | |
| AUSTRIA | 24,377 | 30,339 | -19.7 | 317,589 | 332,787 | -4.6 |
| BELGIUM | 35,834 | 40,440 | -11.4 | 464,413 | 523,448 | -11.3 |
| BULGARIA | 1,670 | 1,830 | -8.7 | 17,434 | 17,913 | -2.7 |
| CYPRUS | 710 | 1,175 | -39.6 | 10,397 | 13,369 | -22.2 |
| CZECH REPUBLIC | 14,203 | 15,920 | -10.8 | 161,225 | 158,263 | +1.9 |
| DENMARK | 16,334 | 15,051 | +8.5 | 160,050 | 154,681 | +3.5 |
| ESTONIA | 1,436 | 1,454 | -1.2 | 16,224 | 14,194 | +14.3 |
| FINLAND | 7,710 | 9,060 | -14.9 | 104,836 | 119,239 | -12.1 |
| FRANCE | 144,602 | 179,038 | -19.2 | 1,738,446 | 2,016,412 | -13.8 |
| GERMANY | 259,846 | 269,144 | -3.5 | 2,878,173 | 2,929,133 | -1.7 |
| GREECE | 4,164 | 7,890 | -47.2 | 54,810 | 92,144 | -40.5 |
| HUNGARY | 4,647 | 4,521 | +2.8 | 48,014 | 41,847 | +14.7 |
| IRELAND | 883 | 778 | +13.5 | 79,169 | 89,507 | -11.6 |
| ITALY | 106,491 | 133,284 | -20.1 | 1,314,868 | 1,637,812 | -19.7 |
| LATVIA | 873 | 1,169 | -25.3 | 9,869 | 9,920 | -0.5 |
| LITHUANIA | 948 | 1,054 | -10.1 | 11,328 | 12,190 | -7.1 |
| LUXEMBURG | 3,782 | 3,707 | +2.0 | 47,326 | 47,239 | +0.2 |
| NETHERLANDS | 30,247 | 41,082 | -26.4 | 485,334 | 538,599 | -9.9 |
| POLAND | 23,239 | 24,909 | -6.7 | 252,448 | 250,103 | +0.9 |
| PORTUGAL | 7,127 | 9,555 | -25.4 | 88,945 | 142,156 | -37.4 |
| ROMANIA | 5,698 | 10,279 | -44.6 | 61,608 | 73,988 | -16.7 |
| SLOVAKIA | 5,553 | 5,903 | -5.9 | 64,194 | 61,608 | +4.2 |
| SLOVENIA | 3,714 | 4,212 | -11.8 | 46,159 | 55,137 | -16.3 |
| SPAIN | 48,155 | 60,395 | -20.3 | 648,392 | 741,594 | -12.6 |
| SWEDEN | 25,052 | 26,894 | -6.9 | 252,791 | 279,582 | -9.6 |
| UNITED KINGDOM | 149,191 | 134,027 | +11.3 | 1,921,052 | 1,822,065 | +5.4 |
| EU 27 | 926,486 | 1,033,110 | -10.3 | 11,255,094 | 12,174,930 | -7.6 |
Among the European volume markets, only the UK was up in November by 11.3. Sales were down 3.5% in Germany, 19.2% in France, 20.1% in Italy and 20.3% in Spain.
All major automakers were down in November with the exception of the BMW Group, which saw sales a 0.1 percent hair higher than in November 2011. The GM Group is down 13.2 percent in November, Ford is down 9.9 percent. Fiat is down 13 percent, PSA lost 15.6 percent, Renault is down a whopping 27.7 percent.
Volkswagen could increase its market share to nearly 25 percent for the year. GM is down to 8.2 percent, Ford to 7.6 percent.
Data can be downloaded here as PDF, and here as Excel spreadsheet.
It’s pretty significant that the movers and shakers are Hyundai and JLR. JLR sales are growing at some pace when you consider the European car market is crashing.
Why do car sales in the EU peak in March?
I cannot speak to the whole of Europe, but in the UK it is when a new license plate is available. Same occurs in September. This has some effect on people waiting for the latest plates (so holding off in January and February somewhat).
It used to be just once a year in August and back in the 80’s it was a big deal with people sometimes coming in at midnight to get their new car with the new plate. As Derek has mentioned in other posts the culture of car ownership has changed.
so they get a new plate……why is that important to these consumers?
Instead of model years (2007 Ford Mondeo), many Brits refer to having a “56 plate” Ford Mondeo. That means they bought it mid-year 2006, which is actually September 1 2006 to February 28 2007. 06 plate would be March 1 2006 to August 31 2006.
That plate sticks with the car (unless someone is eligible to get a new plate), so it identifies the age of the vehicle. If it’s February 15, 2012 (61 plate) in the UK, and you don’t wait for the 12 plate on March 1, then it’s sort of like you bought the 2012 model when the 2013s are already out. You’d take a depreciation hit.
I believe about 15-20% of car sales in the UK occur in March, and I believe the number is similar but slightly lower in September.
Fiat Group is down 16% on the year, but it’s Alfa Romeo that’s really hurting, down over 30% for the year and 33.5% this month. I expect that this is a result of the end of the 159 production (the brand is now down to just the MiTo and Giulietta).
The Giulia can’t come soon enough, but based on Marchionne’s plan, it’ll be 2015 before it arrives. By then the Mito will be 7 years old and the Giulietta will be 5.
This poison will eventually spread to the US market.
I see another Carpocalypse coming, especially when considering how pending higher US tax rates will likely increase unemployment and slow the US economy once again. Credit defaults will increase, and the housing and car markets will each slow.
…and yet the Fed money cartel recently tied their interest rate TO the unemployment rate, no hikes until what is it 6.5%?
Clever girl.
“Clever girl.” We know what follows.