The Ford Motor Company’s namesake Ford brand suffered a September 2014 sales decline of 3% as the industry reported gains in excess of 9%.
First thought?
The F-Series, not just Ford’s best-selling model line but the country’s most popular vehicle range, was revealed in new, high-tech form months ago, and we’re rapidly approaching the replacement phase. Some members of the media have even been driving the new truck.
In other words, with factories being overhauled and buyers interested in waiting for a more efficient F-150 with a better power-to-weight ratio, sales of the current model would naturally decline, bringing down a brand that relied on the F-Series for more than three out of every ten sales last year.
Indeed, F-Series sales did decline in September. But only slightly.
At least up until this point, Ford has matched the appropriate level of incentives to the appropriate level of production in order to maintain F-Series sales leadership, while clearly sacrificing some market share.
Through the first nine months of 2014, F-Series sales are down just 0.4%.
On the other hand, the overall Ford brand is off last year’s pace by 1%. September 2014’s 3.2% drop for the Ford brand involved a 1% decline in F-Series sales, equal to 593 fewer units, but a 5.5% decline in Ford car sales, equal to 2952 fewer units.
The C-Max slid 18%, Fiesta sales fell 17%, Focus volume was down 8%, Taurus sales fell 15%. These weren’t anomalies, either, as all four of those cars have reported year-over-year declines over the last nine months. (Not unpredictably, Mustang sales fell 29% in September; they’re up 1% this year.)
Meanwhile in the SUV and crossover corners of the showroom, Ford utility vehicle sales were down 1.9% in September, having risen just 1% through three-quarters despite a massive boom in SUV/crossover sales.
There are reasons for all of this, of course. Moreover, there is one key exception which we’ll get to later. The car lineup is anything but new. The Fiesta’s introduction in its current form preceded new introductions of virtually all direct Fiesta rivals. The Focus is being freshened for 2015, but the segment leaders, Corolla and Civic, are much newer. The Taurus is part of an increasingly less desirable segment. The embattled C-Max – “Where’s my as-advertised fuel economy?” they’ve often asked – has never approached Prius-like sales volume, and it trailed the Prius V by 960 units in September.
Ford’s Edge, of course, is approaching replacement, having been around since late 2006 with small updates scattered throughout its tenure. Expedition sales are up 19% this year, but the 3% decline in September comes as GM’s popular full-size SUVs compete against the outgoing, V8-engined Expedition.
Explorer Police Interceptor sales provided a boost to the overarching Explorer nameplate in September, but sales of the civilian Explorer were up just 0.8%, well off the 5.5% pace achieved through the first three-quarters. More troubling was the Escape’s 3.9% loss. The Escape, last America’s top-selling utility vehicle in 2011, set a sales record in calendar year 2013. Based on the three-quarter performance (sales are up 0.8% this year), it could do so again in 2014. But its competitors are quickly garnering larger portions of the segment.
Escape sales fell by 889 units in September. Of greater numerical significance last month was the 2151-unit decline in full-size commercial van sales at Ford. As the E-Series winds down, with a 38% drop to 5549 units in September, the Transit has not yet wound up. 1225 were sold last month, up from 1099 in August and 496 in July. It’s very early, but if we exclude those numbers, and if we assume Ford will get its full-size commercial van groove back, the brand-wide numbers certainly change. Without the E-Series and Transit, Ford sales fell 2.1% in September.
Regardless, to blame the F-Series for Ford’s stagnation in 2014 is to ignore the responsibility other models have of carrying fair shares of the load. The Fusion, sales of which jumped 9% to 21,693 in September and 6% to 240,585 so far this year, isn’t going to carry the passenger car load on its own.
Perhaps non-truck Fords are simply levelling off before the overall industry does so in 2015 or 2016. Perhaps we can expect surprising growth from Ford when the next Edge arrives. Perhaps we should recognize the F-Series for what it is: Ford’s engine.
Setting aside guessing and surmising, we are able to grasp some facts firmly in our minds. Even if Ford F-Series sales had increased 1% in September rather than declining 1%, overall Ford brand sales would still have decreased by 2.6% last month. And if we exclude the F-Series’ actual tally from Ford’s September results, the brand’s figures look rather worse, falling 4.4%, rather than 3.2%.
You missed the biggest part of the story: Ford’s sales to daily-rental fleets were down 40% in Sept y-o-y. Planned cutback, they’ve been reducing daily-rental sales for months. Looking just at retail sales, Focus was up 17%, Escape up 8%, Fusion up 11%, per Ford US sales chief John Felice on the monthly sales conference call.
This is a very interesting counterpoint. The article above paints some doom and gloom for virtually every product line, but if the “truth about cars (sales)” is that the retail sales for those models is all up, this may be a very good path forward leading to more profit, and higher brand image/prestige than what is garnered by base trim fleet dumps.
Ford retail was up 2% for the month.
But the overall market was up 9% over the same period. So Ford still delivered a disappointing result for September.
Calling the F-Series a single line of vehicles is pretty ridiculous. The F-150 is now a completely different vehicle from the F-250/350.
It reminds me of the mid-80s, when Oldsmobile called 3 completely different vehicles “Cutlass” so they could boast about how good Cutlass sales were.
I agree, but if all the competitors are doing the exact same, well, its really nothing to use against Ford. I’d like to see them seperated as well, as 1500 become increasingly sissified, Id like to see if 3/4+ increase in sales to make up for the lack of options on 1500s.
At least to my eye, the RAM and GM heavy-duty trucks look a lot more like the light-duty models than the Fords do.
Ehh, I can see how you see that, I think also, it strongly depends on the trim level.
A 2wd gas chevy 2500 with no options is a front end change from the 1500 with similar base spec.
A Denali 2500 with diesel 4×4 definately looks different than a similar Denali 1500 though.
The dodge again similar but the front end on the 2500 definately looks better, not that the 1500 is bad, but the 2500 with cummins 4×4 4 door painted black with the beige ish twotone around the bottom is a pretty truck. The dodges similar to Ford has the advantage of the solid front axle which alone makes it looks different.
As old as the Ford 250+ are, I still believe the design is good, its clean and probably one of the most unjumbled looking vehicles in production. None of the beer belly doors like GM trucks and basically every cute-ute has today, which again while old, is refreshing.
Either way none of the 1/2 frames are going to match up to a 3/4 body visa versa. The front end of the new 1/2s simply isn’t made to be as durable as the… Edit deleted a paragraph and a half, went off on tangent.
Don’t forget the F650/750. F series vehicles GM no longer even tries to make. Speaking of… have you seen the 2016 F650? It’s pretty sexy, I can see some compensation pick-up variants in the future looking as good as a poser can.
Of the several imported here, they are used as Promo vehicles, with big shiny chrome wheels, 6 doors and a relatively small Pickup Bed
@eggsalad,
I totally agree.
Why aren’t the pickups broken down into vehicle classes? It wouldn’t be that difficult.
Class 1, US midsize; Class 2, 1/2 ton full size and global midsize; Class 3………………..and so on.
I do know there is some contention d!ck slapping competition between FCA Ram 3500 and F-450. If the vehicles are actually graded against each other it would paint a transparent picture of what’s going on.
But, somehow I don’t think the manufacturers’ want this. Ambiguity is a great tool for the marketer’s.
“It ain’t lying is people don’t know”.
We do have classes based on GVWR, but they have two limitations: one, that everything below 8500 GVWR is Class 1, putting all midsizes and 1/2-tons in the same class, and two, we’ve pretty much hit the ceiling with the class limits and so we’ll have to do some shuffling pretty quick. For instance, a properly equipped Ram 3500 is actually in Class 4, which is why it competes against the F-450. Similarly, an HD Payload Package-equipped F-150 has a GVWR of 8200, which is almost hitting the ceiling. If the numbers keep increasing across the board (and they will thanks to the slightly juvenile nature of competition between the Big 3), soon the traditional class designations will lose all meaning.
It just sounds good from a marketing perspective. Break them up into categories, not so good
My wife was looking at replacing her 2010 Escape with a new one so we rented one for the weekend and she hated it. She says it doesn’t have the visibility the old one had, the dash is to fussy and the fuel economy is poor. I want her to look at the MKC as well as the Audi Q5. She might just hold on to her Escape for a few more years.
This is interesting to me because I too have a 2010 Escape and have been eying the 3rd gen as a possible replacement, but been afraid that I might have a similar reaction. Being quite happy with my current Escape I see no reason to rush into anything. I have also heard the MKC is even less desirable then the current Escape
As the owner of a ’13 Escape, I can tell you that’s a valid concern. If outward visibility is high on your list of features, then I suspect you’d be happier with a Subaru Forester.
Hadn’t thought of the Forester, thanks.
Would a C-Max do better–at least for the fuel
Economy and visibility?
I think many Escape owners would be happier with the C-Max. You have the same interior room and general performance. You give up part of your cargo space with the C-Max, but you almost double your MPG. It seems that Escape buyers (mostly women) want to sit up high and they want a place for their dogs. (They imagine their dogs will stay in the hatchback, but they end up on the front passenger seat.)
I do think Ford will be an interesting manufacturer to keep an eye on over the short to medium term.
Ford is heavily reliant of the F Series, maybe to reliant.
Even with the fanfare the new F-150 might have some debugging. How many will wait to buy one? Ford is smart in allowing the previous model to run for a while until the new F-150 is nutted out.
As great as some claim the aluminium F-150 is, with it’s technology, I do think the greatest and most innovative aspect is the production of the vehicle. The technology here is greater than the vehicle itself. It’s still just a truck.
I do think it is highly proble that Ford F-150 sales will drop. Ford is also facing stiffer competition. Even the new Colorado/Canyon must of had Ford a little worried. They released the F-150 at an opportune time and killed the publicity of the Colorado fast. Good marketing, this is where I do think Ford has the advantage over the others.
The figures I would love to see are the average transaction prices of the new F-150 and Ford’s profit in a 6 months to a year. This will show us how well Ford has done with the F-150.
How much has this pickup cost Ford to design/develop, retool, retraining, etc. Someone must know.
“How much has this pickup cost Ford to design/develop, retool, retraining, etc. Someone must know.”
Someone knows, but you have a better chance of finding the Ark of the Covenant than Ford releasing a breakdown of costs and profits related to the F-series.
If Ford does release that information, look away. I assume it will melt faces like in Indiana Jones.
Ram has a more than competitive product now, especially the diesels. Ram seems to be very aggressive in gaining market share and I suspect that Ford will have difficulty marketing the more costly aluminum trucks w/o eroding margins.
Will Ford market a non-alum version? As a hedge.
Also, GM’s bizarre bankruptcy (Chrysler too?) allows it to carry and use past losses, giving it a significant advantage.
@thornmark,
I do agree strongly with Ram’s pricing. Globally FCA has had a very aggressive pricing strategy.
I do think Ford will lose more sales to Ram. I do know some will use only Ford figures to show that Ford is really losing out.
If you break down the increase in Ram, how many of those should of went to Ford?
Ford is slowing down and this has started a while ago.
I had an interesting debate the other day regarding Ford’s. This is when I realized that the US consumer doesn’t want larger pickups. I do think size matters, but what size down the track?
If people kept on wanting larger and larger pickups, the major pickup players in the US would have gone straight to a ‘HD’ size truck. This would have made it easier on EPA emissions and FE as CAFE would of been made irrelevant.
So Ford is now at the limits of what the broader American will accept for a pickup.
Colorado sales will see if I’m correct. If the Colorado is an excellent mover, then the average Joe wants a smaller pickup. I’m not talking midsize, but smaller pickup.
Some food for thought.
@BAFO – It’s doubtful the new F-150 will see a profit for the 1st 6 months. But do not worry your pretty little head. The F-150 has averaged about 2.5 Billion in net profits, the last 20 years running. That Ford does devulge. So I wouldn’t lose any sleep over the F-150. By the end of the generation, it’ll likely be pushing 3 Billion in net profits yearly.
Sorry but you can’t use F-Series and F150 interchangeably. The new F-Series was not revealed in new high tech form last month. The F150 was. For all we know sales of the F150 tanked last month but sales of 3/4 ton F-Series trucks and larger grew with the market so the net overall effect was only a .4% drop. The way Ford reports their numbers it is really hard to tell WTF is going on with F150 sales.
Most full size half ton trucks are more of a life style than work truck. Ford will have a learning curve with this new truck but it will do well. I do agree with Big Al that the Colorado/Canyon will determine how well a slightly smaller truck will do in the market.
In my area, Toyota’s brand-new, and much-improved, Highlander is already as ubiquitous as the current Explorer has been since its introduction in 2010. There are lots of loyal Toyota people here, but I think the Highlander may be stealing some of those Explorer sales.
Which is a little odd since the Highlander would actually be a closer competitor to midsize CUVs like the Edge, Pilot, Murano and Equinox/Terrain
despite its available (or is it standard?) third row.
Even the 2008 Highlander had better ride characteristics than the new Explorer. The current new and even better Highlander of today improves the experience even further.
It all boils down to what the buyer prefers; the super-quiet, soft and smooth luxury-car like ride of the new Highlander OR the stiffer, taut, truck-like ride and handling of the girthy new Explorer.
Neither is bad, but they are distinctly different.
Short sighted analysis going on here.
Ford is in a very vulnerable position, since it relies on the F Series (and trucks, broadly speaking) to generate almost all of its profit, it has priced its vehicles (trucks and cars alike) at the heftiest premiums of all the volume manufacturers, WHILE the reliability ranking of its lineup is absolutely breaking down – there is a lag here (between consumer experiences of reliability & future purchases/leases) that is already beginning to catch up with Ford.
Add to this that, no matter what anyone claims, aluminum body paneled F Series are going to be much more expensive to repair (even in the case of minor damage; especially in the case of major damage), thus necessitating much higher insurance premiums (collision/comprehensive coverage is 80% of the cost of auto insurance), and the reliability issues plaguing the Ecoboost Ford motors, and Ford is literally betting everything on one of the two colors of the roulette wheel – AGAIN.
Yes, but… Everyone I talk to in my travels from East TN to Chicago believes Ford is the only true American car company left, Dodge = Fiat, GM = Government Motors. Nobody wants to spend $40K on a truck and hear O-Bummer jokes, or have Fix It Again Tony written in the dust on the tailgate.
Unfortunately this does sum up Ford
“Perhaps non-truck Fords are simply levelling off before the overall industry does so in 2015 or 2016. Perhaps we can expect surprising growth from Ford when the next Edge arrives. Perhaps we should recognize the F-Series for what it is: Ford’s engine.”