The R version of Volkswagen’s Golf isn’t the kind of car Volkswagen intends to sell in large numbers. The most recent iteration found 3894 U.S. owners in 2012, equal to 19.3% of the 20,208 fast Golf buyers, if “fast Golf” means GTI and R.
In 2013, as the Golf R’s availability inventory dried up, the Golf R attracted 1598 U.S. buyers, or 10.7% of the GTI/R total.
In the meantime, Volkswagen sold 23,946 Jetta SportWagens in 2012 and another 22,534 in 2013, years in which, respectively, VW USA sold 40,885 and 30,931 total Golfs. The Jetta SportWagen, you may recall, was and is a Golf wagon underneath. It has even been marketed in Canada that way. But, thought VW USA, the greater popularity of the Jetta nameplate in the United States meant marketing the car under that banner was more lucrative.
As VeeDub fans the world over have already noted, Volkswagen is showcasing the Golf R Wagon at the auto show in Los Angeles this week. It is the dream car for automotive writers: a relatively affordable and rather quick all-wheel-drive German wagon. It’s blue, yes, but they could paint it a lovely shade of brown, right?
Let’s say, for the sake of your dreams tonight, that this car actually ends up in America as a production car marketed and stocked by Volkswagen dealers. How many could we reasonably expect to see?
We’ll use 2012 as our representative year. Volkswagen sold 64,831 Golf-family vehicles, Jetta SportWagen included. Of those, 37% were wagons and 6% were Golf R hatchbacks. 9.5% of the Golf hatchbacks sold were Golf Rs.
Now we have to make assumptions, and the first will be that there are fewer Golf wagon buyers than Golf hatchback buyers who would be willing to upgrade to the R model. But we won’t drive the number down too far, as a high percentage of the wagon buyers which still exist in the U.S. are willing to shell out on higher-priced machines. (It’s not like there are a bevy of affordable true wagon options.)
Over the last three months, with the new Mk7 Golf activated, Volkswagen USA has averaged 3787 total Golf hatchback sales per month. We’ll add the average for the Jetta SportWagen from the same period last year – 2059/month, when it wasn’t at the end of its tenure – to that total for projected monthly output of 5846 units.
This assumes that Volkswagen’s previously held belief that the wagon would do better under the Jetta banner than the Golf’s won’t hold true. We’ll adjust for seasonal differences and call it 65,000 Golf sales per year, with the wagon generating 35% of that total (22,750) and the Golf R accounting for 7.5% of the wagon’s total, down from the 9.5% achieved by the Golf R hatch in 2012.
Our end tally: 1706 Golf R Wagon sales per year in the United States.
It’s a guess, an educated guess perhaps, but not a prophecy that I’ll firmly stand by. History has been our only guide. It’s certainly not a forecast since, after all, Volkswagen will use their discretion to decide how many, if any, Golf Rs can be sold as wagons in wagon-averse America. But a second-generation Tiguan with 296 horsepower? Yeah, they could probably do just fine with one of those.
For the record, 1700 annual U.S. sales is equal to approximately 0.5% of Volkswagen’s anticipated 2014 volume; and about the level of sales achieved in the last ten months by cars like the BMW Z4, Mini Paceman, and Volvo S80.
And what are its chances for landing stateside? Automotive News quoted a VW spokesman who said Volkswagen has no plans to sell the wagon variant in the U.S. Volkswagen’s own press release on the matter clearly spells out: “Car goes on sale in Europe in Spring of 2015.” Thus, the car’s production debut in Los Angeles may just be a strange form of teasing. Automakers, provoke not your prospective buyers to resentment.
Timothy Cain is the founder of GoodCarBadCar.net, which obsesses over the free and frequent publication of U.S. and Canadian auto sales figures.
Does it come in brown?
You know, you can write a keyboard macro for that response…
I tried, but it keeps adding diesel and stick
Heh… good one.
Great reply!
VW in the USA seems to equate with ‘low rent’. Ask the Phaeton faithful how the experiment with high end VW’s went. Or even the Touareg.
When VW ‘dumbed down’ their vehicles and started to equal the price per cubic feet equation that most American consumers use when costing a vehicle, their sales improved.
This appears to be an enthusiasts or car sophisticates type of vehicle. A wagon with ‘go’.
In Europe the get it. Not in the USA.
Canada likes wagons and Quebec really likes wagons and European vehicles. But we are cheap and usually buy the lower spec’ed vehicles.
That is my not-unserious question about many cars.
(I say this as someone who has *actually owned* a brown diesel car*, though not a wagon or a manual.
* Actually two-tone, brown over tan, which was even *better*. “Why u no do that anymore, Mercedes?”)
Seriously, I REALLY like brown as a car color.
Especially since I’ve given up hope of a renascence of reed green or even sky blue.
But obviously my tastes are … not mainstream.
Sky blue is the default Nissan Leaf color.
Benz offers it – dolomite brown metallic.
I just priced out a e350 wagon with your color scheme.
We have sky blue it on the Equinox, Trax, Cruze and 13 Malibu it’s called silver topaz metallic
My Ford Escape is this color, Steel Blue Metallic , I love it, but would prefer a nice coppery brown
The MSRP for a Golf R is $34-$37 according to our lord and savior, Google. Those who buy these rigs usually aspire to own some sort of hotted up Audi and we’re running into lightly used Audi money here already.
How much more would a wagon version be?
I think you hit on a problem VW will have, differentiating a Golf R from the equivalent Audi. There’s room for one upscale version of a wagon, but not two. Either the R wagon will eat into Audi wagon sales, or it won’t sell. Given VW’s cache in America, I’m betting on the latter.
Well, except the Audi version is the Allroad, which is based on an A4, which is a bigger car than a Golf, on a different platform, with raised ride height, plastic wheel-lip cladding and no manual transmission available on it.
That’s like saying that because Subaru makes a turbocharged Forester, there’s no way they could sell a WRX.
Now that Audi has dropped the A4 Avant and A3 Hatch, there is no equivalent Audi you can cross shop in NA. As Fordson noted, the A4 Allroad appeals to a different crowd than an R Wagon would. I’m not sure who the allroad appeals to, as it’s priced similar or a bit higher than a Q5, but can only be had with a 2.0T.
It’s been a lot of years since you could get a wagon or hatch from Audi that was high performance… B7 Avant, maybe?
The A3 sportback (hatch) is coming back this summer, although I believe only in TDI and hybrid form.
I don’t know if used car buyers would limit themselves to a wagon so stringently if they thought an Audi badge was in reach instead of a VW one.
http://bit.ly/1zD8FZJ
3!!!
I mean, after they buy back 1500 of them for electrical gremlins and the perpetually 3-month scheduled failing of the window motor regulators.
I was going to say about 6. I posted in the other thread about it but my comments aren’t showing up. American’s don’t buy wagons and they don’t buy hot hatches. Thus this ain’t going to sell!
I love wagons and i love the IDEA of sporty wagons but as a man that owns a 9-3 wagon and having just picked up a short term lease on an X1, there’s no comparing the two. The X1 is WAY easier to live with (if you forgive it’s size) because it sits a little higher and wears a reasonable amount of rubber.
Unless you’re single and hooning around, especially on North America’s ARROW straight roads, really what is the point of this sporty business with rock hard suspension and paper thin side wall?
I always thought i’d replace the 93 with an A4 wagon (though was scared off by it’s size) but truth be told i need something that makes transporting kids as easy as possible and i’d likely just get a loaded Outback.
Yes, I am approaching 40.
I think you’re over by a factor of four or five. A $36K+ compact wagon from a negative prestige maker with a bad reputation for quality, reliability and service? Sale proof. I could see VW losing market share as BMW, Mercedes, and Audi invade their wanna-be market space.
If it’s a typical VW launch, they will finally bring it here in 2017. 1,700 units sounds about right for sales.
Unfortunately VW USA’s continually promoting vaporware (“Shazam! Here’s yet another cool new vehicle for Europe only!”) rather than updating its USA vehicle base. How does VW’s dealer base feel about this?
They’re perfectly happy selling Kias and Subarus by the truckload.
I agree with you. What’s the point of debuting something in the US that they don’t plan on selling it in the US?
A lot of talk and automobile magazines claiming how wonderful it is. In the end, few will sell.
I’d rather see VW bring over an R-spec Scirocco.
Not too many, in all honesty. My Jetta SportWagen TDI with the 17″ Porto wheels and panoramic sunroof package retailed for $30,635. I didn’t think it was worth anything near that, and I didn’t pay nearly that much for it. In fact, I don’t think any Golf-based Volkswagen is worth more than about $30K. So when the Golf R is somewhere around $35K, a Golf SportWagen/Variant R would be firmly in luxury car territory.
As for the Jetta SportWagen being a Golf, it sort of is and sort of isn’t. It’s really based directly on the Mk.5 Jetta/Golf. For 2010, the wagon got the Mk.6 Golf’s front-end and interior, but it did not receive the Mk.6 Golf’s structural and mechanical improvements. Since it has the Golf front end, I was hoping that maybe a GTI or Golf R bumper would fit onto my SportWagen, but alas…the front-bumper cutline is slightly different. With some fiberglassing, it could probably work, but I’m not about to do all of that. At least I’ll be able to retrofit the bi-xenon/LED lamps from the GTI and Golf R.
$30,635 sound about right for an MSRP. The actual cost sold was probably $28k. Diesel and panoramic roof are, probably, about a $1,500 cost.
So you’ve got a $25,5k car and paid extra for diesel engine and sunroof. How is this more than what it’s worth???
Yeah, $28K and change was about what I paid, and that’s what I felt it was worth. I traveled the three hours to nearby Dallas to purchase mine because none of the dealers would budge on the sticker price despite the fact that they couldn’t shift them. The specific one I wanted from the local dealership is actually still there…and I started shopping in June.
Kyree
You are right about the MKV chassis. Although the electronics were upgraded to MKVI along with the outer bodywork (and electronics were the big upgrade from V to VI.) Even in regards to the chassis it gets funky, as their are changes in the unibody for the wagons that make them different enough from the MKV. Lets call it MKV.5. From what I’ve read the same goes for the new ones, the back half requires a slightly different assembly process.
The R and GTI body kits can be made to work, there are several that have had it done out there. There are even a few kits available. If you get the bi xenon’s the cleanest install requires a new lighting ecm. If bought new that adds around 400 to the project cost.
Thanks for the tips; I’ll definitely look into the body kits. I just hate anything that doesn’t look OEM-quality…so it can’t be some ridiculous “VEE-DUB” aftermarket trash. As for the lights, I think I will just let a friend of mine take care of it. He’s been working on VW/Audi/Porsche vehicles for years, and recently opened his own shop specializing in those brands. Fog lamps are also in order.
This thing is designed to make dealers sweat when figuring out what to order.
Play it right and you’ll sell just a few, probably before launch day, to drooling enthusiasts who will happily pay you $3000 over sticker.
Get it wrong and you’ll be stuck with some $38K station wagons that won’t sell until you discount them below what you paid and have them taking up space on your lot for 9 months.
Exactly.
If VW can keep it under $35k I would say 2000-3000. The Audi A3 and Q3 come into play in the low 30k range with much less HP and equipment.
Just lift it 2 inches and call it the Golf CUV. Won’t be able to keep it on the lots.
Like the Audi RS Q3? Maybe they should bring that over to ‘Murica.
http://www.audi.co.uk/new-cars/q3/rs-q3.html
Sales will be the readership number of this board X 0.001.
Twelve.
Only if they are brown, manual, diesel, with an interior completely wrapped in Alcantara leather, sticker price of $12,000 new, delivered CPO used, with a $2000 rebate on the hood.
Oh it also must go 0 to 60 in under 5 seconds, otherwise it is “dangerously slow,” it must also get 63 MPG city, 67 highway, or it is a hopelessly awful gas guzzler.
It also cannot come with air bags, anti-lock brakes, stability control, or other nanny controls. If the curb weight is over 2,000 pounds it is a porker, but it must carry 2,000 pounds payload (and still get to 60 under 5 seconds). Finally, if you drive it into a brick wall at 100 MPH with no seat belt on, it has to tickle.
+100
I want the Golf Sportsvan.
The would sell a number of them, there is a whole fanbase of the WRX wagon and STI hatch that would love an affordable go-fast wagon.
All the current hot-hatches are FWD and all the hot wagons are above $70k.
$40k for a well appointed Golf R wagon that is a tune away from 350hp, sign me up.
Keep in mind this is basically FWD. The AWD system is Haldex, not comparable to what you’ll find on a WRX.
Sadly, Subaru fans who wanted a small-ish go-fast wagon used to have a splendid choice.
Alas – all the Subaru wagons are now SUVs and none of them are go-fast.
I like the HP bump, but don’t need all wheel drive.
I like the all wheel drive, but don’t need a 292HP Jetta wagon.
If they just gave us an AWD Sportwagon with the 200HP 2.0T, they’d have the ideal replacement for the Tiguan. Jack it up an inch or so if you must have the CUV look.
“Jack it up an inch or so if you must have the CUV look.”
I think the slope of the front end is at odds with typical CUV ground-clearance, and no one would be fooled if you tried to jack it up. In order to make it really look like a CUV, it would need a blunt, more-horizontal hood (a la Tiguan).
KW, 99.99% of CUVs never go off road anyway, it’s all about styling. I’m thinking of the modest lift they gave the Passat wagon when they offered it with 4Motion.
I think I am the target audience for this thing:
-current owners of a modded mk6 GTI that we bought new in 2011;
-one kiddo and at least one more in the works;
-currently looking at a new 3 series or A4 wagon, or a CPO E63 wagon for family hauler duties; and
-one car family, so $50k CAD is not a stretch.
That being said, I have already written an email to VW Canada asking for this car now.
If an E63 wagon is an option, I don’t see how it’s not the only option.
In all seriousness, you have basically admitted that if VW sells this here, they will loose out of an A4 sale. I’m sure you wouldn’t be the only one.
As Mbella suggests, if you you actually have a chance to pick up an E63 wagon, there’s no real comparison.
Umm, Cadillac CTS-V wagon. The only alternative option… with a stick…
Oh, right a CTS-V wagon would work. Just not the three series or the A4.
The only problem with the CTS wagon, is that it fails as a wagon because of it’s sloped roofline and small rear opening.
Not many, unless it’s a 3 door brown manual wagon….
Seriously, I think your estimate is very reasonable.
I would propose 1706 Golf R Wagon sales for the entire model run, to import just 400/year for a few years. Hand numbered & signed by Piëch himself for good measure.
On the super-low end of things, there are just 80 of the 2015 Volvo V60 Polestars.
Just sell us the regular TSI Sportwagen already! My Passat wagon is getting a little long in the tooth.
So it could be about as popular as the Cadillac ELR, but with lower margins.
Is this part of VW’s plan for world domination?
The price is the big question. I just have a feeling VWoA would price this around $39-40k, 1700 units sounds about right if not a little optimistic at that price.
I’d much rather see a GTI/GLI wagon variant in the $33-35k range, I suspect that would sell like hotcakes.
What are the sales volumes for BMW wagons? Does Audi still offer a wagon–what about its volume? How about the new Volvo V60? Do we have any reason to assume a VW priced similar to the V60 will sell more?
Should we assume the existence of this product will create demand or steal it away from those models? If we assume the American apatite is satiated with the existing crop of wagons, then it would have to steal market share, and it cannot do better than what those models would lose. If it creates demand, then I’m not how you would predict that. I would guess that it would create some demand out of the gates as the interneters get theirs, but then quickly cool off.
Zero sum game sounds right, looking at these numbers from Mr. Cain’s site:
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2014/11/usa-vehicle-sales-rankings-by-model-october-2014-ytd.html
Kia Soul 126k
Subaru Outback 109k
Toyota Prius v 25.9k
BMW X1 “not a wagon” 17.8k
VW Jetta Sportwagen 17.1k
Scion xB 13.7k
Audi Allroad 3.9k
Volvo V60 4.3k
Acura TSX wagon 635
BMW doesn’t break out 3 series wagon sales.
And really, I’d consider the XB and Soul (the latter of which is in our family fleet) to be tall hatchbacks more than wagons.
I think the number you arrived at is low. The issue with the math is that VW only made so many R’s. They flew out of the lots and the 5k they made weren’t sufficient supply for the two model years they thought they were planning for. My guess is that is why the new R isn’t going to be the same kind of limited run with a hard volume ceiling.
I really think it is low because it will be dramatically undercutting the premium brand wagons on price while providing the only performance wagon with a manual transmission on the market. That was difference in the success of the R’s between the last two generations, and it was a big one. If they go DSG only with this I’d be surprised if they even got close to your 1700 estimate by the way. Not because America as a whole is clamoring for wagon manuals, but because VW’s customers in particular are.
I’d buy one.
I dunno. The cheapest AWD wagon sold here appears to be the $38,175 V60, unless I’m missing something, or unless you count whatever weirdness is going on at Subaru with the Forester and/or Crosstrek. Also, insofar as I can tell, no AWD wagon is sold with a manual transmission. I get that these two things are lot poison for the general population, but there are obviously people who like one or the other (or both). I think VW may have an opportunity here to offer something that no one else does. By all accounts, Americans hate diesels, and yet 23.5% of VW’s sales in 2013 had a TDI badge on the back. Why? Because they’ve made themselves synonymous with mainstream diesel offerings. My point is, I think there’s enough of a market for the R to justify it, particularly since the cost of federalizing it has already been done through other models. Of course, if they’d offer AWD in the regular SportsWagen, they’d sell even more.
Nobody really wants a $40k VW that is not an SUV, but the Golf R has a surprising fan base. I see way more than I expect out on the roads. Not special enough to be a weekend car for me. I don’t see this selling more than 1000-1500 units a year in the US.
Sorry a bit off topic, I’m new here. I’m trying to find a way to listen to the podcast.
I have an app called “Downcast” that I usually use for podcasting and I searched for TTAC and it shows it as available podcast but says ‘no media file’ so can’t seem to figure out how to listen to the show.
Help please. Any suggestions for other apps? I like listening to my podcast while I work.
Thanks!
For me, this could replace my beloved Audi A4 Avant. Since Audi won’t. And what other choices along the same lines are there?
They should sell about as many as Subaru sold Legacy GT wagons in 2005-2007. Maybe 2000 yearly?
I’d ask a different question. Does it matter how many they sell?
1) This is cheap marketing gold. We’re already 60+ comments into an article discussing the theoretical possibility of this even being offered.
2) The breakeven has to be quite low. With MQB platform interchangeability, and assembly of awd models already being done at the plant, this is essentially plug and play. The whole combo of drivetrain/trim already exists.
3) Their potential customer goes beyond Golf R buyers. As others already noted, there is no longer an Audi quattro wagon in this space. (AllRoad A4 is dissimilar). Subaru has abandoned this space as well. Being a sole player in a niche market will surely gain at least a few conquest sales.
I think your estimate is about right. 1,500-2,000 units. But, why don’t they do a Jetta wagon with plastic body cladding, the Haldex AWD system, and raised ride height? If they could price it $10k below the Audi allroad they could add a 0 to those sales numbers.
This is highly probable to be already in the works. If VWVortex is to believed (the actual site.. not random commenters), they posted as of today (11/19):
“VW Executives confirm Golf Sportwagen 4Motion and Alltrack versions will be in US market by 2016”
Take that for what it’s worth.
I’m truthfully surprised they didn’t do this years ago. Now, it would be too small for most Americans but it’ll move a lot more units than an R wagon would.
Now There’s a good question. How many Jetta Alltracks would VW sell? I guess we could start with the Audi Allroad and probably add, what, 50%? Assuming they could get it into a low enough price bracket so it’s not competing with the Allroad.