The Tesla Model 3 duo will seem like vaporware for a while longer, as full production of the low-cost EVs won’t start until 2018.
During a presentation by Chief Technical Officer J.B. Straubel at last week’s U.S. Energy Information Conference, Business Insider says a slide — page 23, if you’re wondering — showing how the price gap between ICE and electric vehicles will close as battery costs improve also noted the Model 3 was planned for 2018.
The date given looked like Tesla was pushing back the $35,000 pair’s concept and deliveries in 2016 and 2017, respectively, but the automaker’s representatives later explained to Bloomberg’s Cory Johnson — who tweeted the information about the slide — the 2018 date was for full production; initial production is still a go for 2017.
The presentation comes on the heels of the news the Model 3 won’t be one model, but two: a sedan and a crossover, both starting at $35,000, both able to cover 200 miles on one charge.
(Photo credit: Tesla/Facebook)
2018 is a realistic date, but they won’t be able to build them fast enough.
New battery production techniques may drastically reduce the space needed to make the batteries. Once they adopt those techniques, it might give them space in the Giga-Factory to add another production line.
http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2015/manufacturing-lithium-ion-battery-half-cost-0623
An MIT press release in 2015 related to the professor’s startup company and *lower cost, not higher density* doesn’t tell us anything about what Tesla will be doing by 2018, let alone packaging changes.
I assume everything in press releases is vapor and hype until it actually ships – this serves me very, very well.
>> I assume everything in press releases is vapor and hype until it actually ships – this serves me very, very well.
The research paper on the technology was back in 2011. It’s now moving from the lab into production.
The pilot factory on Brookline St. in Cambridge MA has produced over 10,000 batteries so far. They’re partnering with other companies for full scale production.
Back in 2011, they were claiming a 10x improvement in energy density. I don’t know what the improvement is in the final product.
They’ve deviated from what the technology was in the 2011 paper – from flow battery to what they call semi-solid. The machine that makes them spits out a cell every 2 1/2 minutes. Increased density and abuse tolerance. They estimate $85 per kWh by 2020. They also kept quiet about their work until this morning.
And Chevrolet will have the Bolt in about the same time (maybe sooner?) It will be good to have competition in this fairly new category.
GM is also building a “mystery vehicle” at Orion with the Bolt that should drop around that time. They’ve just allocated $245 million to another vehicle and that, “The plant is up to the challenge of building this brand-new product, something it’s never seen before.”
GM should build a car the size of the Malibu using PHEV.
I bet they’ll sell better than the MODEL 3.
At the end of the day, purchasing a car is an investment and I think people will feel safer with GM than Tesla.
Only if it’s a wagon/crossover.
Sedans are for people who party at places with valets more than they haul groceries/kids.
Kids and groceries are a big part of my life.
VAPORWARE…at least at the “$35,000” asking price.
This may end up being the most applauded SMOKE & MIRRORS trick in human history.
Hey Elon Musk: what happened to the 40KWh Model S that actually started under $60,000???
Why didn’t you give it supercharging ability?
Why didn’t you give it basic tech like the navigation system?
If you wanted it to sell better – why didn’t you advertise it?
Why does the website make it appear that the car is $17000 cheaper than it is by talking about “$10,000 fuel savings” and a “tax rebate” which some people won’t even get? (Payers of AMT for example).
OR is it because you played us all for fools to get investment (like me when the stock was below $30 in 2012) and then suddenly it went from “affordable” to being a $70,000 Audi A7 competitor (which isn’t as good as the A7 BTW).
I was so enthusiastic about the Model S until I realized they were playing the public for dummies.
Why is it vaporware at $35K? Battery prices should lower that $100 per kWh by then, so I don’t see a problem. If you want the dual motor hellcat killer, then sure it’s going to cost you a lot more money. Another issue is that sometime during production, that $7500 Federal money will expire, but I don’t think it will need it at that point.
“Battery prices should lower that $100 per kWh by then, ”
“Should” is not based on fact…
“If you want the dual motor hellcat killer, then sure it’s going to cost you a lot more money. ”
I NEVER SAID NOTHING ABOUT NO HELLCAT… The Model 3 will compete with the typical “0-60 in 6 ~7 second” crowd.
“Another issue is that sometime during production, that $7500 Federal money will expire”
THE GOVERNMENT shouldn’t be subsidizing these things at all. Especially when THEY ARE NOT AFFORDABLE FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF AMERICANS. This is not “the people’s car”
The problems is that LIBERALS and ENVIRONMENTALISTS are SO STUPID that they vote for welfare subsidies for these vehicles and can’t even afford them – so the rich end up getting “subsidy capture” when they end up buying them.
P85 and P85D are not vehicles “affordable” by more than 70% of this country. YET they enjoy a $7500 tax credit, access to HOV lanes and SPECIAL PARKING ON LIBERAL COLLEGE CAMPUSES…
Yeah that’s right…
>> I NEVER SAID NOTHING ABOUT NO HELLCAT… The Model 3 will compete with the typical “0-60 in 6 ~7 second” crowd.
They’ve announced that the dual motor and battery options on the current S will be available for the 3. With lighter weight, besting the P85Ds times shouldn’t be hard. But, it won’t be cheap.
The battery cost estimates are based on fact. Semi-solid flow batteries are now in limited production and essentially here. It will probably take a couple of years to scale the production and get them into car designs. But, they’re coming.
The dual motor isn’t what makes the Model S P85D so fast… it’s the beefier battery and inverter.
This isn’t about performance. The 3 is supposed to be about AFFORDABILITY.
Please point to the data that shows the battery in the P85D is any different than the battery in the P85 and that the inverter for the rear motor has changed.
Why should he encourage people to buy his cheapest & least profitable product?
Because he told the government it would be affordable when he was borrowing all that money???
Tesla has a $750M credit line from private banks, now.
Also, Musk seems to be willing to gamble his personal PayPal fortune on all of this stuff.
He’s not shy about taking advantage of whatever government will lend or give him, but that’s hardly the whole picture.
I think when he was borrowing the money, he told the government it would be somewhere in $30k range.
I’m not sure what he told them when he paid the money back.
“I’m not sure what he told them when he paid the money back.”
Exactly. Govt got paid, so promises made to them are of no more importance.
Wasn’t Tesla going to make a Model X?
I mean, yeah, they have a prototype.
But I’ll believe mass production when it ships, which is years-delayed already.
“a sedan and a crossover, both starting at $35,000”
*Both* starting at $35k? That doesn’t seem right.
Because it’s “smoke and mirrors”. It’s never gonna happen. The most you’ll get is seats and a steering wheel.
MARK MY WORDS. You’re looking at the next “CLA” here. The marketing says it’ll be “affordable” but It’ll only start at “$35,000” AFTER the tax credit and estimated $10,000 fuel savings.
Add $35,000 to $17,000 and you get $52,000.
This car is gonna be over $50,000 when all is said and done.
>> This car is gonna be over $50,000 when all is said and done.
I think you’re right – but after you’ve added the options you want. Dual motor is going to cost, the auto-pilot will probably tach on $3k. Leather, bigger battery etc. You’re estimate might even be a little low.
And you can bet the $35k model will have at least triple the wait time for it to be built.
@BTSR:
This is not smoke and mirrors.
If it works, it’ll be because of the economies of scale generated by the gigafactory.
I admit it’s a gamble. But the theory strikes me as fairly sound.
Outline:
1) Batteries are the price problem for EVs.
2) Lithium Ion batteries are made out of affordable materials.
3) Manufacturing is the problem.
4) Build a big-ass manufacturing plant that uses big-ass capital investments and economies to bring down the unit costs of batteries.
5) Sell as many damn batteries as you can, to Tesla, to competitors, for people to hang on their walls, and anyone else they can find in order to keep that big-ass factory running as fast as it can.
6) Profit. The kind of profit where you spend $5B, and make it back $100 – $marginal_cost, over hundreds of millions of units.
This isn’t smoke and mirrors. It’s defensible business theory.
It is *risky*, though.
Betting roughly $5B on production techniques that have not been tried at this scale before? That takes a large fortune, and a guy who’s willing to gamble it on this. Musk is no fool, though, so he stacks the deck (if he can), and brings in other stakeholders (including the government) to spread the risk around.
@btsr
>> Add $35,000 to $17,000 and you get $52,000.
>> This car is gonna be over $50,000 when all is said and done.
Sounds a lot like a 3-series, which the Model 3 will probably compete against. In fact, sounds a lot like the way the whole industry works these days. Offer a cheap stripped-down base trim to advertise a low price, then quickly jack up the price with options that make the car something you’d actually want to own.
In any case, “affordable” is a relative term. No one is claiming the Model 3 will be an entry-level car, but it will certainly be more affordable than the Hellcat-killer.
“Sounds a lot like a 3-series, which the Model 3 will probably compete against. ”
I really don’t think ANYTHING competes against a “3 series”. This is a badgewhoring system… When you walk into a BMW, you aren’t going there to test drive it and then go test an ATS…you’re looking to get a new BMW.
BMW vs. TESLA???
BMW wins hands down even when TESLA is probably more reliable long term (which we really don’t know as the Model S has been out only since 2012 and already there are drive, handle and screen failures reported).
The Mercedes C-class 4-matic has the absolute best interiors under $60,000 and the sticker is about $55,000 with tax on a well equipped trim.
TESLA’s problem is that their interiors are hard, flat and bland and you could so easily get the same features you’d get from the Tesla somewhere else. The only exception is the plug-in EV gimmick which is TIME INEFFICIENT.
No matter how anyone slices it, I can refill my Jeep in just 2 minutes to 300 miles range and any TESLA takes far more time to regain just 50 miles.
Oh, I think everyone knows the starting price is for a stripper that no one really wants. Tesla employees even call the Model III the “3-series fighter,” so it should be priced accordingly. Tesla is exactly right to sell a product at the best profit margin they can.
Rather, my point is that claiming the same starting price for sedan & SUV seems to be a reporting error. Since Tesla will push the price envelope, they have no reason to claim a low starting price for the SUV. They never claimed to deliver an affordable SUV, just an affordable car. They would be more than justified making the stripper version of the SUV $40k.
What they are really announcing is that they have no product but are planning some R&D which may result in a lower cost vehicle in 3 years.
If this is meant to boost investor confidence, then they are going about it the wrong way. As it stands, Tesla is a one product company that trades heavily on cool factor and on the charisma and celebrity of its CEO.
Yes, it’s always two years away . . . oh, does anybody have any boots-on-the-ground reports on how the battery gigafactory is progressing? Here’s an interesting link on it:
http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2015/06/teslas-battery-gigafactory-is-coming-along-nicely-thanks/
well said. after all these years and even given a weekly free promo spot (or 2) on TTAC…there is STILL one friggin car. Everything else has been stock hype.
The Model X has been spotted testing in the customary camo.
“As it stands, Tesla is a one product company that trades heavily on cool factor and on the charisma and celebrity of its CEO.”
A cult…
what did tesla do to you?
There are companies that are cults of personality around a founder.
Wolfram Research is one.
Tesla probably is another.
If I don’t work there, it’s not my problem — especially if they are turning out an innovative product.
But it is something to consider before putting in a job application…
Calm down big truck and dream of hellcats jumping fences. You calling Tesla government welfare is rich considering FCA is the poster child for gov bailouts throughout its existence. The product appears to be sound and most people that own them seem to be happy. Most of what I am hearing as a negative regarding the Tesla products are what I would expect from a new company with a new product. Does FCA, GM et al make a trouble free products and they have been doing this for years. I would suggest that if you got Tesla at 30 bucks a share do a lil profit taking and enjoy the ride. Tesla is bringing much needed attention and better yet competition to the all electric car arena.
I’ve driven the Model S, and it is a great car. But it’s far from perfect. However, for such a new company (second overall car & the first they really designed themselves), it’s one hell of an accomplishment.
Please save the picture at the top of the post; it can be photoshopped with some spider webs, dust bunnies and rat crap in the corners, and retitled “Tesla Model 3: Still Waiting For It” for re-posting in 2020.
EV’s are like the newborn child – full of potential, and the promise of a future where our mundane transportation needs will be taken care of by energy that arrived at our planet 8 minutes ago, fresh from the sun.
The HELLCAT, and its dual-smoking exhausts and all of the waste and environmental destruction is soon to be a wheelchair-bound old man, lamenting the loss of the confederate flag.
Now, ain’t THAT obtuse!?!