Twelve days after early reports revealed that Volkswagen Of America’s TDI Clean Diesels weren’t so clean after all, Volkswagen reported a one-percent U.S. sales increase for the month of September 2015, the month in which the emissions fraud was revealed.
But did Volkswagen’s U.S. volume truly rise? And if so, what kind of extra volume is generated by a one-percent uptick? Moreover, while Volkswagen trickled forward with just its fourth year-over-year U.S. monthly sales improvement in 2015, what was the rest of the auto industry accomplishing?
First, consider the length of the month. September 2014 featured 24 selling days and did not include sales from the high-volume Labor Day weekend, which was tallied with August results in 2012, 2013, and 2014. September 2015, on the other hand, featured 25 selling days and did include those Labour Day weekend sales. As a result, the year-over-year comparison — always used because of the seasonality of new vehicle sales — isn’t a perfectly sound tool in this particular instance.
This is where the daily sales rate, or DSR, comes into play. In September 2014, Volkswagen Of America sold 1,083 new vehicles per selling day. In September 2015, while the total monthly volume Volkswagen reported was higher by 0.56 percent, or a scant 145 units, the DSR fell to 1,046 new vehicles per day, a 3.3-percent decrease.
Even the DSR, however, doesn’t take into account the extra surge created by Labor Day weekend volume, but the health displayed by the overall industry’s sales provides some clarity on that front. From an auto sales perspective, September 2015 was 4.2-percent longer than September 2014, yet the auto industry generated 16-percent more new vehicle sales. The overall industry’s DSR rose 11.1 percent to 57,685 units, quite obviously far in excess of VW USA’s 3.3-percent decline.
Yes, on the surface, Volkswagen’s U.S. volume increased in September 2015, albeit marginally, but the rate at which Volkswagen was actually selling cars decreased in September. Plus, Volkswagen’s modest volume increase/slight DSR decrease occurred as the auto industry exploded to a seasonally adjusted annualized average of more than 18 million units. In other words, if consumers bought and leased new vehicles at the September pace throughout the course of the year, automakers would record a calendar year with more than 18 million new vehicle sales. Never before has the industry ever topped the 17.5 million mark.
It was under this glow that Volkswagen reported a 0.6-percent volume increase in September. As Americans registered 15.7-percent more new vehicles this September than in September 2014 — including an additional 22,000 pickup trucks, 123,000 more SUVs and crossovers than in September 2014, 1,012 extra minivans, and even 35,000 more new cars — Volkswagen’s dealers produced 145 more sales than during the same period one year ago.
Of course, the TDI Clean Diesel scandal couldn’t have played a large role. For the first three weeks of September, consumers weren’t aware of the fact that cars equipped with the 2.0-liter TDI were spewing up to 40 times the stated emissions. Both during the early portion of the month and the post-TDI fallout, the larger chunk of Volkswagen’s U.S. sales are produced by gas-fired vehicles. In August, for example, only about 7,000 of Volkswagen’s 32,332 sales were of the 2.0-liter TDI variety.
As we stated last month, Volkswagen Of America was already in really rough shape before the emissions scandal. Falling U.S. sales have become routine at Volkswagen.
Thus, it was assumed Volkswagen’s September sales picture wouldn’t have been rosy before the company made all the wrong headlines on September 18. Whether the dreadful TDI news further sucked the brand downward in the latter stages of September or the declines were already written in stone, we can’t fully know. Nor can we measure the impact on the brand as a whole — certainly not until we receive October’s sales figures and also certainly not without a complete understanding of every potential VW buyer’s mindset.
|
Volkswagen
|
Sept.
2015
|
Sept.
2014
|
%
Change
|
9 mos.
2015
|
9 mos.
2014
|
%
Change
|
|
Total Jetta
|
7,773 | 10,245 | -24.1% | 97,465 | 115,055 | -15.3% |
|
Passat
|
7,228 | 7,280 | -0.7% | 63,736 | 74,913 | -14.9% |
|
Total Golf
|
5,251 | 3,487 | 50.6% | 49,767 | 21,201 | 135% |
|
Tiguan
|
2,972 | 1,674 | 77.5% | 22,221 | 19,120 | 16.2% |
|
Total Beetle
|
1,539 | 1,821 | -15.5% | 19,066 | 21,485 | -11.3% |
|
Touareg
|
638 | 646 | -1.2% | 5,314 | 5,200 | 2.2% |
|
CC
|
384 | 627 | -38.8% | 4,490 | 8,157 | -45.0% |
|
Eos
|
356 | 216 | 64.8% | 2,156 | 2,819 | -23.5% |
|
Routan
|
– | – | – | – | 1,103 | -100% |
|
—
|
—
|
— | — | — | — | — |
|
Total
|
26,141 | 25,996 | 0.6% | 264,215 | 270,874 | -2.5% |
But certain Volkswagen models certainly took a hit in September. The core element of the Golf lineup – excluding GTI, Golf R, e-Golf, and wagon – plunged 37 percent to only 1,193 September sales. Total Beetle volume tumbled 15 percent to 1,539 units.
Finally, the Jetta sedan, Volkswagen’s best-selling model, slid 14 percent to only 7,746 sales. Typically one of America’s 20 best-selling cars, the Jetta lineup ranked 23rd in September, nearly 1,600 sales behind the 20th-ranked Chevrolet Impala.
Timothy Cain is the founder of GoodCarBadCar.net, which obsesses over the free and frequent publication of U.S. and Canadian auto sales figures. Follow on Twitter @goodcarbadcar and on Facebook.
NOT ENOUGH CUVS! The Explorer may outsell them in the US this month. That would be hilarious.
Sure, not much is happening any more, and further developments will be slow in coming and be months before we know what the fixes and fines are. And yet we read them all!
Enough with the Volkswagen articles… We get it, they messed up and you really really care about it all. But multiple articles every day is just excessive. I think I’m gonna leave ttac for a month or so until this all blows over.
Okay, don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
Wow. This place is nothing like it was years ago. Fu ck this.
I feel your pain. Even before this scandal, there was a ton of groupthink hate here directed towards VW. Now there’s a reason, at least.
In fairness, though, this is a huge, significant story, with daily developments. They have to fill the site with something every day, and it must be gratifying to have so much new news to write about.
Yes ttac please stop covering major automotive news stories. Perhaps an article or two about the Kardashians for some of your more sensitive readers.
There is the horse, there is beating the horse when it is already dead, and then there is putting the horse into a wood chipper.
It’s a relevant story, but it isn’t the only thing happening in the automotive world. A new visitor could be forgiven for thinking that this was a VW blog instead of an automotive blog.
VW or Tesla blog. Usually TTAC is good for a Tesla or two each week.
Not bad for a company that doesn’t produce anywhere near that percentage of market.
“A new visitor could be forgiven for thinking that this was a VW blog instead of an automotive blog.”
I disagree. If you go to a VW or Audi blog site, there’s barely any mention of this issue.
I can’t believe everyone clicks on every article. Just pretend it’s too boring for you and move on. I love these VAGate stories. They grip me more than would a muddy old river or reclining Buddha.
I love it as well, in fact, I get upset when I hit refresh and don’t see a new VW story.
I love an 80’s soundtrack song lyric reference! Good work DenverMike.
It’s like in 2000 when Ford Explorers were rolling over all over the place and sales volume broke records despite all the headlines. No news is bad news!
October sales will be a doosie. I would think the entire brand is radioactive, but maybe shoppers see a deal. Jack Dawson won his ‘free’ ticket on the Titanic, and look what that got him.
Poor Jack Dawson developed a taste for luxury on the Titanic, slipped the Heart of the Ocean gem in his pocket during the confusion, survived two days in the water before being picked up by a fishing boat, and made his way to Chicago. He fenced the gem there, working with criminal gangs, and spent the next ten years building up a fortune with shady dealings. Then in 1922, he arrived at West Egg with the name “Jay” Gatsby, a millionaire with a taste for luxury, a mysterious past, and a curious fear of swimming pools.
I tend to think the average car buyer just doesn’t care all that much and it’s more a matter of “as long as they spell your name right” the added coverage could even give them a boost.
To people that aren’t into the car business, it’s basically a recall to placate the EPA, that’s it.
The whole concept of auto blog is to beat a few selected dead horse over and over:
Buying a used Bimmer M5 for under $5k
Toyota Camry being an actually good car
GM’s bailout money can’t be recovered fully
Diesel Saab Wagon with standard transmission
It’s good to have the VW emission issue as a fresh entry.