As recently as March 1, 2016 — on behalf of February 2016’s sales results — Fiat Chrysler US LLC touted a 71-month streak of year-over-year U.S. new vehicle sales improvements. Although FCA US stopped communicating the length of that streak by the beginning of the second-quarter, the company’s sales reports suggested that the streak through the end of June 2016 measured 75 months.
Figures released by FCA yesterday reveal that the streak of year-over-year improvements actually ended at 40 months in September 2013, when an originally reported 1-percent increase, it turns out, was actually a 3-percent decrease. On two other occasions during this 75-month span, FCA claimed sales had improved, year-over-year. August 2015’s 2-percent increase was actually a 1-percent decrease. Then, only two months ago, while FCA originally claimed a 1-percent increase, sales actually fell 7 percent.
The abbreviated streak, however, is only one side of the equation. (And it increasingly appears to be the least of FCA’s worries, as a grand jury has now been empaneled.) FCA’s sales reporting methods, highly questionable on both the retail and fleet side, frequently resulted in significant overstatements and, FCA claims, understatements, as well.
As a result, despite overstating sales by 8,991 units in 2012, by 731 units in 2013, and by 7,450 units in the first-half of this year, FCA says its restated, corrected sales figures released yesterday (displayed below) show that the automaker under-reported by 18,996 sales over the last 66 months.
The most significant overstatement? FCA originally reported 213,187 new vehicle sales in March 2016 but now claims only 199,764, a 13,423-unit difference.
On the other hand, only two months prior in January 2016, FCA’s original report of 155,037 new vehicle sales was apparently understated by 16,254 vehicles. FCA now reports 171,291 new vehicle sales in January 2016.
How did this happen, and what’s being done to fix it? When it comes to the former, this is being “looked into,” FCA said in a press release yesterday.
Jalopnik’s David Tracy: “But retail sales do affect Fiat Chrysler’s monthly sales reports, and what’s throwing them off is a process called “unwinding.” That’s what happens when a dealer sells a car, and then—because the customer backed out, or for another reason—puts the car back in its “unsold” inventory. Fiat Chrysler then gets its incentive back, and the warranty period is canceled until someone else buys the car. The problem is that Fiat Chrysler says it doesn’t consider these “unwindings” in its sales figures, because the company has assumed “that most unwinds are recorded shortly following the time the initial sale is registered in the NVDR system.” Typically, these factors resulted in FCA overstating sales.
As for the months of understated sales — the majority of the last 66 reports were, in fact, understated FCA claims — fleet reporting seems to be the issue.
“The other issue with Fiat Chrysler’s sales reporting process,” writes Tracy, “is their method of maintaining a “reserve” of fleet and “other retail sales.” This “reserve” means cars have been shipped, but not yet reported as “sold” in the monthly sales report. The company seems genuinely baffled by this process, saying keeping cars on “reserve” is “a matter of historical practice (going back many years before 2009 bankruptcy),” but that “the origin of this practice is unclear and is being looked into.” Fiat Chrysler goes on, saying the “not-in-use reserve” ranges in size each month, and results from a “subjective assessment at the month-end.”
The end result of FCA’s efforts to revise their tabulations do not lend great confidence to the proceedings. In FCA’s own words: “The objective of this new methodology is to provide in FCA US’s judgment the best available estimate of the number of FCA US vehicles sold to end users through the end of a particular month applying a consistent and transparent methodology.”
A European-style registration reporting system appears untenable given different practices across 50 states. FCA also seems to recognize that there are some in the automotive press, including yours truly, who require sales data “to opine about the state of the industry.” FCA understands, “that our decision to suspend monthly reporting would impact those constituencies and possibly may impair their perception, and in turn the public perception, of FCA US.” Indeed.
Impossible to judge amidst this new system are many of the sub-claims FCA made over the course of the last number of years, including a bevy of declarations based on the last six months alone which we explored last week. These new figures don’t break down FCA figures by brand or model. Thus, for example, we cannot conclude whether Jeep truly has set sales records in every month dating back to November 2013, or whether May truly was the highest-volume month in the history of Jeep, or whether February was the Ram brand’s best February since 2002.
Here’s hoping we can trust the figures FCA delivers in the future.
| Month/Year | Retail Total | Fleet Total | New Total | YOY % Change | Previous Total | Volume Difference |
| January 2011 | 53,006 | 18,666 | 71,672 | 25% | 70,118 | 1,554 |
| February 2011 | 63,947 | 28,951 | 92,898 | 10% | 95,102 | -2,204 |
| March 2011 | 79,589 | 51,124 | 130,713 | 41% | 121,730 | 8,983 |
| April 2011 | 76,684 | 36,786 | 113,470 | 19% | 117,225 | -3,755 |
| May 2011 | 79,188 | 34,012 | 113,200 | 8% | 115,363 | -2,163 |
| June 2011 | 84,269 | 30,920 | 115,189 | 25% | 120,394 | -5,205 |
| July 2011 | 93,452 | 24,476 | 117,928 | 26% | 112,026 | 5,902 |
| August 2011 | 89,826 | 38,098 | 127,924 | 28% | 130,119 | -2,195 |
| September 2011 | 90,520 | 35,168 | 125,688 | 26% | 127,334 | -1,646 |
| October 2011 | 84,431 | 31,344 | 115,775 | 28% | 114,512 | 1,263 |
| November 2011 | 84,651 | 33,338 | 117,989 | 59% | 107,172 | 10,817 |
| December 2011 | 110,070 | 24,066 | 134,136 | 33% | 138,019 | -3,883 |
| 2011 Calendar Year | 989,633 | 386,949 | 1,376,582 | 27% | 1,369,114 | 7,468 |
| January 2012 | 71,753 | 32,900 | 104,653 | 46% | 101,149 | 3,504 |
| February 2012 | 89,558 | 47,053 | 136,611 | 47% | 133,521 | 3,090 |
| March 2012 | 114,345 | 51,100 | 165,445 | 27% | 163,381 | 2,064 |
| April 2012 | 98,063 | 37,910 | 135,973 | 20% | 141,165 | -5,192 |
| May 2012 | 110,399 | 47,258 | 157,657 | 39% | 150,041 | 7,616 |
| June 2012 | 108,540 | 34,823 | 143,363 | 24% | 144,811 | -1,448 |
| July 2012 | 103,553 | 15,829 | 119,382 | 1% | 126,089 | -6,707 |
| August 2012 | 109,231 | 34,056 | 143,287 | 12% | 148,472 | -5,185 |
| September 2012 | 104,768 | 32,905 | 137,673 | 10% | 142,041 | -4,368 |
| October 2012 | 95,492 | 33,341 | 128,833 | 11% | 126,185 | 2,648 |
| November 2012 | 98,983 | 27,521 | 126,504 | 7% | 122,565 | 3,939 |
| December 2012 | 116,413 | 27,002 | 143,415 | 7% | 152,367 | -8,952 |
| 2012 Calendar Year | 1,221,098 | 421,698 | 1,642,796 | 19% | 1,651,787 | -8,991 |
| January 2013 | 88,337 | 29,823 | 118,160 | 13% | 117,731 | 429 |
| February 2013 | 95,054 | 47,209 | 142,263 | 4% | 139,015 | 3,248 |
| March 2013 | 126,428 | 49,226 | 175,654 | 6% | 171,606 | 4,048 |
| April 2013 | 118,560 | 40,010 | 158,570 | 17% | 156,698 | 1,872 |
| May 2013 | 131,798 | 39,155 | 170,953 | 8% | 166,596 | 4,357 |
| June 2013 | 124,641 | 28,486 | 153,127 | 7% | 156,686 | -3,559 |
| July 2013 | 126,461 | 10,108 | 136,569 | 14% | 140,102 | -3,533 |
| August 2013 | 136,211 | 30,393 | 166,604 | 16% | 165,552 | 1,052 |
| September 2013 | 101,669 | 32,071 | 133,740 | -3% | 143,017 | -9,277 |
| October 2013 | 107,315 | 33,713 | 141,028 | 9% | 140,083 | 945 |
| November 2013 | 114,545 | 33,109 | 147,654 | 17% | 142,275 | 5,379 |
| December 2013 | 125,941 | 29,374 | 155,315 | 8% | 161,007 | -5,692 |
| 2013 Calendar Year | 1,396,960 | 402,677 | 1,799,637 | 10% | 1,800,368 | -731 |
| January 2014 | 100,948 | 35,175 | 136,123 | 15% | 127,183 | 8,940 |
| February 2014 | 117,371 | 44,234 | 161,605 | 14% | 154,866 | 6,739 |
| March 2014 | 150,706 | 42,570 | 193,276 | 10% | 193,915 | -639 |
| April 2014 | 135,843 | 34,481 | 170,324 | 7% | 178,652 | -8,328 |
| May 2014 | 158,378 | 45,674 | 204,052 | 19% | 194,421 | 9,631 |
| June 2014 | 137,890 | 36,082 | 173,972 | 14% | 171,086 | 2,886 |
| July 2014 | 149,983 | 26,998 | 176,981 | 30% | 167,667 | 9,314 |
| August 2014 | 167,024 | 25,204 | 192,228 | 15% | 198,379 | -6,151 |
| September 2014 | 124,736 | 41,486 | 166,222 | 24% | 169,890 | -3,668 |
| October 2014 | 129,491 | 41,017 | 170,508 | 21% | 170,480 | 28 |
| November 2014 | 133,852 | 36,653 | 170,505 | 15% | 170,839 | -334 |
| December 2014 | 142,908 | 46,901 | 189,809 | 22% | 193,261 | -3,452 |
| 2014 Calendar Year | 1,649,130 | 456,475 | 2,105,605 | 17% | 2,090,639 | 14,966 |
| January 2015 | 111,722 | 34,426 | 146,148 | 7% | 145,007 | 1,141 |
| February 2015 | 122,546 | 43,972 | 166,518 | 3% | 163,586 | 2,932 |
| March 2015 | 151,090 | 45,639 | 196,729 | 2% | 197,261 | -532 |
| April 2015 | 147,261 | 36,560 | 183,821 | 8% | 189,027 | -5,206 |
| May 2015 | 165,259 | 42,244 | 207,503 | 2% | 202,227 | 5,276 |
| June 2015 | 144,228 | 44,206 | 188,434 | 8% | 185,035 | 3,399 |
| July 2015 | 159,803 | 20,321 | 180,124 | 2% | 178,027 | 2,097 |
| August 2015 | 163,209 | 27,678 | 190,887 | -1% | 201,672 | -10,785 |
| September 2015 | 146,620 | 48,484 | 195,104 | 17% | 193,019 | 2,085 |
| October 2015 | 144,515 | 54,870 | 199,385 | 17% | 195,545 | 3,840 |
| November 2015 | 129,484 | 56,424 | 185,908 | 9% | 175,974 | 9,934 |
| December 2015 | 158,963 | 58,117 | 217,080 | 14% | 217,527 | -447 |
| 2015 Calendar Year | 1,744,700 | 512,941 | 2,257,641 | 7% | 2,243,907 | 13,734 |
| January 2016 | 109,364 | 61,927 | 171,291 | 17% | 155,037 | 16,254 |
| February 2016 | 126,705 | 58,302 | 185,007 | 11% | 182,879 | 2,128 |
| March 2016 | 148,008 | 51,756 | 199,764 | 2% | 213,187 | -13,423 |
| April 2016 | 150,220 | 41,339 | 191,559 | 4% | 199,631 | -8,072 |
| May 2016 | 150,824 | 42,295 | 193,119 | -7% | 204,452 | -11,333 |
| June 2016 | 147,036 | 57,033 | 204,069 | 8% | 197,073 | 6,996 |
| June 2016 YTD | 832,157 | 312,652 | 1,144,809 | 5% | 1,152,259 | -7,450 |
| Total | 7,833,678 | 2,493,392 | 10,327,070 | 9% * | 10,308,074 | 18,996 |
Data source: FCA
* assumes correct figures between January 2005 and June 2010
[Image: FCA]
Timothy Cain is the founder of GoodCarBadCar.net, which obsesses over the free and frequent publication of U.S. and Canadian auto sales figures. Follow on Twitter @goodcarbadcar and on Facebook.
I don’t know where the gov’t get their information but I think they’re dead wrong. FCA is selling millions of Hellcats out there so the growth rate they’ve been quoting has got to be true. Personally, I have seen at least 2 Hellcats over the last 3 months, well, I think they’re Hellcats anyway because they were so fast they were kind of blurry.
What’s more annoying than BTSR spouting off hellcat nonsense on every story he reads? Everyone else that have decided they are comedians trying to channel/ bait BTSR with their own hellcat nonsense.
BTSR quit, can’t everyone else?
BTSR is gone? Good. I did not like him and I don’t think he added any value to this site. Now I can read the comments section again without feeling like an idiot.
He didn’t quit. He was given a “cease and desist” order by TTAC.
I don’t get why but I’ve literally seen 50+ Hellcats since January. NC is an absolute epicenter for Hellcat ownership, they’re more common than Ridgelines at this point.
Maybe the same as seeing an AMG Mercedes or M BMW…perhaps a bit of wishful badge placement on a more plebian model?
I suspect this. Being in the metro Detroit area, I don’t see as many as I’d expect. I’ve seen a few, and actually most have the badges removed. What do they supposedly sell? A few thousand a year?
The hood is the tell.
I think what’s going to end up happening is that the dealerships that brought on the lawsuit in the first place are griping sour grapes because they’re not selling as many as they feel they should while other dealerships are selling higher than their “fair share”. My own experience with FCA dealerships shows many to be very abusive to the customer–one in particular just this past week trying to charge me $900 for a $120 job done at a tire store. I got a better job out of the tire store too, as all four brakes where adjusted where the dealership wanted to replace two complete assemblies (pads and rotors) while the pads still had over 50% of their material left and the rotors just needed a minor polishing. Brakes haven’t felt smoother since I bought the car.
Point is; people are wising up to which dealerships are screwing them and are proving willing to travel miles out of their way to avoid the bad ones.
And here’s just another reason for investors to be really pissed off and extremely wary of keeping their money on the FCA train…
Combine this with the never ending plea for a merger and the never starting alfa brand, and that’s all I’d need to avoid FCA for good. I really like Chrysler as a brand family (yeah I know reality should dissuade me) but all these issues are really adding up to another bankruptcy. Before this sales bs, I was really wondering how FCA could be so utterly dire right now, but it makes a lot more sense now.
IF these investors haven’t ran like hell already, then they deserve whatever happens.
First we have to assume Alfa is a non-starter. That statement in itself is false as Alfa Romero cars ARE available in the US right now. Maybe not the ones you want, but that’s not my problem. Go ahead and hate FCA if you wish. Your words alone will have no effect on their stock prices.
Alfa has got to be more than 30 4c’s a month in order for most people to consider it an actual brand over here. Let’s see what all that jeep money has created and maybe all the other models we’re supposed to get.
And I don’t hate FCA, I merely mistrust the F part…
Honestly, I trust the F part more than the C part; America’s FCA dealership network was built on the C and I find the vast majority of them willing to do anything to drag an extra thousand bucks out of an owner, even when their car goes in for a warranty repair. That’s almost how much I saved by having my brake rotors resurfaced at a tire shop while keeping pistons and pads where a dealership wanted to replace all three components on my rear axle because of a little rust on the rotors. Pads should be good for another 10K miles at least.
Fair enough Vulpine, my experience with CDJR dealerships has been same- brought our jeep in for repairs, and ended up taking it elsewhere to save several hundred. To be fair though, I’ve had the same experience with Cadillac and Lincoln dealerships. In general, most brands earn the “stealership” reputation.
My mistrust of Fiat comes from the never ending delays and changes in product plans, blatantly leaving brands out to die, and directing huge portions of their cash from all brands into Alfa with nothing yet to show for it. On top of all that, Fiat can’t even take care of Fiat. Riding your hopes on a subcompact, a hideous hatchback, and (their only smart product thus far) a compact CUV that had to compete with a jeep sibling is a recipe for losing. The 124 could help, but suffers the same issue the 500x does, battling the sweetheart of the segment and being obviously related to it.
Regarding Alfa, I could change my mind if they can ever get the Giulia on sale and NOT botch the launch. If the Giulia launches well, they have that new platform and better utilize it better than they have the Dart platform.
I would note that the 500x is reported as very popular in both Europe and Asia, even if not here in the US. On the other hand, the Renegade is doing quite well around the world, including the US, despite riding on essentially the same platform. The problem in the US is that the Average American simply won’t let go of Fiat’s old reputation despite the obvious improvements they’ve made. I had to drive a Fiat 500 myself before I realized just how good that little car is–to the point that I now own it and it’s the wife’s primary driver.
FCA restates their sales figures from dealers to customers/end users and there is a difference of 0.7% from the previous figures…not a big deal.
Everyone in the business is aware that there is a level of “creativity” that is applied to monthly sales figures reported by manufacturers. You can also call it “sales management” on the part of dealers and manufacturers.
If there would be a common template for every manufacturer to report sales from dealers to end users and fleets and one manufacturer was way off on the template/guidelines then its an issue.
There is no template, guidelines, a sales by a dealer is counted when a “retail delivery” is reported by the dealer to the manufacturer.
Lets not forget the various programs that all manufacturers have for their dealers, and “retail deliveries” are always a strong component.
“Unwinding sales” its not in a dealer’s best interest to unwind sales on a regular basis.
Does the customer really care about any kind of sales streak? Or is it the “deal” that any customer can make that counts.
Thank goodness ( BTSR Hellcat ban)
It might have been funny the first 10-20 times. After 50, times it’s childish and annoying to most adults.
Yeah, but now half of the threads are people talking about BTSR talking about Hellcats.
Not much of an improvement. Actually a downgrade, because I had trained my brain to just scroll past BTSR.
In the name the name of all that is holy, how soon until we get he Alfa Giulia? Some Fiat Stradas or Toros for the cheap guys too. Other than that, let the Japanese, Koreans, and Ford fight it out for small cars
Late-2016 or early-2017