The Consumer Electronics Show, now known just as CES, is currently in full swing, with legions of auto journos mingling in ever greater numbers with fawning members of the tech press, eagerly awaiting the latest gadget designed to move the proverbial steering wheel further and further from your hands.
To some, especially self-described urbanists who take startup manufacturer predictions seriously, the words “autonomous” and “self-driving” herald a bright future filled with convenience and relaxation; to others, it’s a portent of a dystopian nanny state where human-driven vehicles have disappeared from the streets, all in the interest of safety and responsibility to your fellow man. A future where there’s ever more limitations on personal autonomy, with private car ownership singled out as a particularly problematic pastime.
You can guess on which side of the fence this author falls.
The advent of semi-autonomous technology has already made our lives more coccoonish. On-board systems can parallel park our cars, avoid collisions, brake for children and animals, navigate a highway lane, and alert us to obstacles and our own drowsy driving. With Level 2 or 3 autonomy along for the ride, a highway trip becomes safer and easier on the driver. What’s not to like?
Then there’s the practical aspects of full-on self-driving vehicles. A boon for the handicapped and elderly, a mobility solution for cities seeking transit and ride-sharing options — autonomous systems could indeed revolutionize how we get around, assuming those on-board systems are one day able to see through deep snow. The problem arises when you factor human drivers into the mix. We’ve already seen what happens when robot cars mingle on the roads with operators made of flesh and blood — fender-benders and headlines blaming the humans.
Right now, only police, doctors, insurers, and the judiciary can take away the personal freedom enjoyed while piloting one’s own vehicle, but many of us fear that could soon change. If proven safer than human-operated vehicles, what’s to stop cities, states, or even the feds from legislating autonomous vehicles in, and dangerous old-school cars and trucks out? We’ve discussed this before, and the argument — in my view — remains a relevant one.
When I think about the personal vehicle, I think of the lifestyle it affords. The ability to slip into the driver’s seat, crank the engine (or electric motor), and go wherever you damn well please at any hour of day or night. To be in complete control, with only time constraints and personal finances as your only nagging worries.
Some manufacturers claim there’ll be no loss of driving privileges in the heady, gee-whiz future — that they’ll always have a steering wheel on hand for gearheads to grasp. Despite this soothing sentiment, the mere fact that these companies are all pursuing driverless technology means the seeds of destruction are being sowed, whether automakers admit it or not.
This crystal ball’s a little hazy, but these are my fears when it comes to autonomous cars. Do you share them? Or is your take on the emerging technology a little less pessimistic? Sound off in the comments.
[Image: Toyota]
Nothing. I’m about as “terrified” of self-driving as I am of midsize sedans dying.
The sad truth is, for a myriad of reasons (lack of training, lack of accountability, poor road conditions and torturous traffic) Americans are awful drivers, to the point that I think computers could do it better. This is not even factoring all the opportunity autonomous driving would generate; by decoupling public transit from fixed routes it could bring public transport out to the edge capillaries of suburban and even rural sprawl. It would provide an easy way to keep drunks and old people who shouldn’t be driving mobile. And it would make getting around a lot easier and more pleasurable than driving for the majority of folks who hate driving.
Sadly it would also upend the auto industry and probably be the end of car ownership as we know it, but I still don’t think that’s bad. For enthusiasts I think cars are better enjoyed on private roads- it’s legal, it’s safer, it’s fun. Ditch the compromised daily driver and put that money into a full blown track car.
The alarmism over autonomous driving is so corny. It needs to end. It’s “Reefer Madness” bad.
I think given the demand to go anywhere at any time you like will still provide a desire for private ownership (plus the opportunity to virtue signal/conspicuously consume/compensate for shortcomings/other list of accusations hurled at anyone’s superficial desires), but yes, I’m with you.
If the autonomous car is privately owned, I don’t see how this would affect anything. If it’s a ride sharing thing, I don’t see why the service wouldn’t run 24/7.
Me: Car, go to the following coordinates please
Car: I’m sorry sir, these ordinates are deemed to be unsafe at this time and as a result – for your own safety – I will not performing said instruction.
Me: car, just drive, I need to clear my head, get out of the house for a bit.
Car: I am not programmed with that information. Please restate command.
Me: D’oh!
There is zero precedent for such speculation.
I mean, you’re right that it would run 24/7, but it depends on how well they could have units dispersed, and if people are willing to wait or plan to have a car show up at the required time.
Inigo: I doana suppose you could hurry it up?
A short time later. . .
Inigo: I hate waitin’!
The ability to slip into the driver’s seat, crank the engine (or electric motor), and go wherever you damn well please at any hour of day or night.
That is the critical freedom that I will not give up until they pry my cold dead hands from the steering wheel and the shift lever.
Explain how privately owned autonomous cars would forbid you from doing this. Bonus points if you can do so without using the “slippery slope” fallacy.
Simple. Many times, I may not have a destination in mind when I leave. I might end up at a friend’s house, at a coffee shop, or just “making the loop” while I listen to music and think, with no destination at all. Spontaneity is a quality I doubt robocars will have.
To quote a Chris Stapleton lyric:
“I couldnt tell you, honey, I don’t know
Where I’m going, but I’ve GOT to go.”
(I’m not a country music fan, but I do believe I could listen to him sing the phone book.)
I am admittedly not a “spontaneous” driver. Seems like a waste and a needless risk. I have a sim racing rig, a bass guitar and various other means of escapism within the confines of my home and a nice commute.
Automated vehicles are coming, and will work great under normal conditions. The problems will be when the system gives up and will request the human driver to take over. In aviation, this has already been seen with accidents like Air France 447. These individuals are highly trained and most pilots are enthusiasts. The other day my flight was landing, and the autopilot system missed the runway because of a wind gust. None event because the highly trained crew had full situational awareness and aborted the landing. Then they flew in manually. Imagine what will happen in vehicles when the only time people will be driving, will be very poor conditions. The systems will deactivate and now you’re on your own. What happens next?
Excellent point. The human, now grossly inexperienced, will be able to drive all the way to the scene of the crash. I bet he’ll beat the paramedics there by 20 minutes!
Yeah, I can see this happening. Your mother’s in the car, and hasn’t manually driven in 12 years. All the sudden a red light goes on, WARNING, SELF-DRIVING IMMINENT.
Panic and crash.
Yup! Guaranteed that if the weather gets bad enough to coat cameras and sensors on autonomous vehicles, it’ll be ten times worse than having to dodge the OCCASIONAL driver doing 25 in the center lane because they’re too paralyzed by fear, as is now the case!
Hell, I’ll lose my shizzle because with the autonomous vehicles let loose, the entire roadway system will be hopelessly clogged, never exceeding some arbitrarily low number on a sign! (Well then, I suppose the ability to sleep may be beneficial, since you certainly won’t get to your destination in a reasonable amount of time!)
Going to the track is already a rich mans gig. Autonomy for the car would undoubtedly bring exponentially less joy for those inclined to drive on the road in a spirited manner, who can’t other wise afford driving fun on the track.
Autonomous cars would eliminate all interesting vehicles and leave those of us who hate to be in the passenger to languish in car-sickness on the way to every destination for the rest of our born days.
I fear that autonomous cars actually won’t be safer, but just like big oil, big tobacco, big tech, and big government, it will be lies, more lies, and slander of anyone who points out the lies about the safety of the vehicles – leaving us in fear of when the next accident that we could have avoided takes us or our loved ones off this world. Humans crash every 500,000 miles, autonomous cars ever 45,000. Yet already the lies of their safety are at a crescendo. No mention is made of the handful of people who have been killed already and the hundreds of thousands of dollars of damage that could have been avoided by not unleashing these untested experiments on the road.
Autonomy for the car would be restriction for the people. Everyone would be handicapped in movement, not just the handicapped and elderly. You would have to program in every destination. Just going for a drive would be impossible. Site seeing, enjoying Christmas lights, taking the back roads, stopping at unmarked locations to enjoy the view, the list of freedoms lost would be endless.
Then there is the very real possibility of severe abuses. Kidnapping via hacking. Government restrictions because your politics don’t jive with the current regimes. Possibly even revocation of movement for unpaid taxes or any other disagreement between you and the government.
Corporate spying that would affect the prices of everything you buy. Amazon already manipulates prices based off the info it gathers with it’s websites, echo’s, and apps. Imagine them having access to your travel habits. Imagine going to the doctors and having your prescription prices doubled because records show you haven’t taken an autonomous car to the gym in 6 months.
And then, what becomes of our police force? They’ll be the only one’s driving around – but for how long? Forces will be cut as speeding tickets are impossible. Violations will be corporate problems not personal ones. Incomes for local municipalities will drop significantly as for most, fines for traffic violations are a major source of income. So taxes on everything else will rise to offset these costs, and millions of officers will be out of work across the nation.
About the only good I see is what was mentioned in the article. All the other ramifications of autonomous cars is pretty terrible.
” Everyone would be handicapped in movement, not just the handicapped and elderly. You would have to program in every destination. Just going for a drive would be impossible. Site seeing, enjoying Christmas lights, taking the back roads, stopping at unmarked locations to enjoy the view, the list of freedoms lost would be endless.”
None of this is true or makes sense. Say you have an autonomous car for a road trip. Do you really think they wouldn’t program in the ability to make a bathroom break? And if you are going on a sightseeing drive you still have to program in a route. Plus if our little navigation apps can change routes on the fly I’m sure these things will be able to as well.
This is just more logic-free alarmism. “You won’t be able to stop it once it starts!” What?
You ever try changing routs on a GPS? You can’t. You get predefined routes. You absolutely cannot specify exactly how to get someplace, only final destination and way points. So you want to spend a few hours programming in your journey, or would you like to just go drive?
Never mind that this totally eliminates spontaneity of any kind.
I program routes into GPS all the time, and more importantly I often deviate from said routes regularly. It manages. This fear is a red herring.
If you have to choose between traffic fines or taxes for revenue, taxes actually make a hell of a lot more sense.
I can avoid traffic fines. I can’t avoid taxes. It’s not right that cities are so dependent on it, but it keeps taxes lower for the rest of us.
^this.
I’m not terrified at all, by the time this occurs I probably won’t care anymore. As a tail-end Baby Boomer I understand the freedom that the automobile represented, I use the past tense because some of that is already lost with today’s tech. Some younger people and older liberal utopians are more than happy to give up freedoms in the name of safety, virtue signaling, etc. Life isn’t meant to be safe, we wouldn’t have evolved to this point if we hadn’t left caves or the canopy or wherever we dwelt. Driving, for all of the irretrievable idiots one must suffer, is still a blast with the right amount of horsepower and torque…and an open road. I weep for the future.
“Driving, for all of the irretrievable idiots one must suffer, is still a blast with the right amount of horsepower and torque…and an open road”
There’s an abundance of the former and a dearth of the latter, and the multiplicative effect of population growth and smartphone dependence is going to make enjoyable driving even less possible in the future.
I welcome autonomy if it can get these people away from the controls.
When in the past have older, less safe vehicles been legislated off the roads? Last time I checked, Model Ts, horses, and motorcycles are still allowed.
There is a first time for everything.
They won’t be forbidden per se, but you won’t be able to buy the required liability insurance anymore.
How do you figure? Autonomous cars would lower crash rates, which in turn would lower premiums. If anything insurers would welcome the business to keep revenue up.
But to insure a car driven by a human, which we all know is only 4 seconds away from certain disaster, will skyrocket. Humans make mistakes, we all know its impossible for a computer to (yes, I’m being sarcastic).
Insurance premiums are priced via actuarial science, not the kind of irrational emotional speculation the B&B is subscribing to in this comment thread. If risk goes down premiums go down with it. Insurers like low premiums and claims as they enable higher profitability.
“If risk goes down premiums go down with it.”
I’ve explained this before. The autonomous driver experiences a lower risk and a lower premium. The manual driver is then an actuarial *outlier* who will be charged extra to compensate.
Umm, compensate for what? All that matters is total profit, which can remain the same with lower premiums.
So your idea is that they won’t raise premiums on manually driven car insurance, because they don’t need to.
Uh huh. You said it yourself.
“Insurance premiums are priced via actuarial science…”
Correct. And the actuarial science says that the manual driver in a sea of autonomous cars is VERY risky. $$$$
You cannot argue “they will have enough profits already” in business. That’s not how it works, and I don’t think you actually even believe it.
Regulations? What are those?
A big premise of autonomous cars is that they will be safer than human driven cars. So if we are in agreement on that assumption, I don’t see why premiums would go up. If they are less likely to get in an accident, human drivers would be less likely to get in accidents, even though human drivers are not as safe…. which would drive everyone’s rates down.
You don’t seem to understand the cost side of insurance (or the differences between cost/revenue/profit). Less accidents = less claims = lower costs of business = lower premiums. Again all insurers (like any for profit business) cares about is profit… if their revenue goes down because their costs go down thanks to lower accident rates that is a win-win for them. There’s nothing for them to “make up” in such a scenario.
I also doubt the difference in risk, and by extension premiums, between humans and autonomous cars would be as extreme as people are speculating them to be. For starters I’d bet over time many of the worst drivers would be eliminated from the human driver pool- not by death but just by logic. The drunks and elderly and smartphone addicts would be the first to go I’d imagine. The remaining drivers would only be people who actually enjoy driving and by extension are probably OK at it.
And as far as autonomous cars go lower risk is not zero risk and we don’t know how the liability issue will be dealt with. Plus again from the insurer’s standpoint all that matters is profit. So if autonomous cars had near zero risk those policies could be made a lot more profitable.
So far the crash rate for autonomous cars, as reported by this very blog, was slightly more than ten fold that of human drivers, and hasn’t come down at all in the 2 years of data the study considered.
You won’t be legislated out from behind the wheel because the cars are safer. You’ll be legislated out because it afford governments and mega corps more control of your life.
That is why older tech wasn’t legislated away. It provided no benefit to anyone involved. Now getting you into autonomous vehicles that report their every movement and setting to the powers that be? Damn, there are legions trying to move heaven and earth to get that data.
Google already warehouses all that data. How do you think their traffic tracker works? You need to adjust the frequency on your tin foil hat.
@sportyaccordy: I think your view on humans being “generally good” so that the greed to make more money on the lower costs of business is misguided and naive. Costs for drivers not utilizing self-drive/autonomous vehicles will absolutely go up. I’ve experienced enough interaction with humans/corporations to know this with certainty. The only way it won’t happen is if NO human driven vehicles are on the road. That would mean avoiding the inevitable human/autonomous mix during the transition that must take place. Bottom line: I don’t agree with you on the insurance costs aspect of the issue.
What terrifies me about an autonomous future is the same thing that terrifies me about driving right now. Drivers who think they are better drivers.
There is a sect of our society that is dead set against being driven by their car and insist they driver better than a machine can and better even than their own track record. Despite statistics that prove that autonomy reduces accidents and injuries they will continue to insist they are better and will want to drive themselves thereby endangering themselves and others.
It’s human to think we are better than the other guy or the other guy is an idiot. I am honest enough with myself to realize I’m not as good as I’d like to think I am. Unfortunately there are plenty who cling to this delusion, seemingly at all costs.
“thereby endangering themselves”
I can’t even endanger myself now?
Fact: 84% of drivers rate themselves above the median in driving ability
Fact: 84% of drivers don’t know what a statistical median is
Lol, so just make up some crap to support your opinion.
I’ve literally NEVER heard anyone say that the reason they are against autonomous cars is because they know that in all instances, they’re a better driver than any artificial intelligence could be. Its much more about freedom of being spontaneous and the joy of driving.
I haven’t heard anyone say they can do math in their head better than a calculator, or that they can look up information in a book better (or quicker, or with more detail) than Google and/or Wikipedia. Some people just like reading books, not because its “better”, because they enjoy it.
What studies? The study posted on this very blog demonstrated human drivers get into accidents once every 500,000 miles driven. Autonomous vehicles get into accidents once every 47,000 miles driven. That’s an order of magnitude more likely for an autonomous vehicle to crash than a human drive.
Who’s the better driver again? Humans are not bad drivers. Poorly trained and distracted humans are bad at everything.
Lack of having a life.
What terrifies me is the government and insurance companies. They may not ban private ownership or driving your own car, but they will band up together to make it prohibitively expensive and we will have to claw at it to preserve our hobbies and experiences. It’s hard enough to keep them from banning firearms, and that’s a Constitutional right rather than a privilege like driving is.
They could do this now, and yet they haven’t. So why would it be any different with autonomous cars?
Because they can’t do this now. Today’s autonomy ends at cruise control, 1,000 science project cars from Uber and Google, and the metro bus. Tomorrow’s autonomy will allow regular people to buy a car that drives itself or to hire a car from an owner company. Making car ownership prohibitively expensive today would simply create a mass of people unable to afford to drive to work, and a similarly sized mass of people turned into criminals driving without insurance.
The “this” in my post was banning private ownership and driving with the tech we have available (i.e. hired human drivers)
The notion that this technology would prompt such a gross dystopian violation of civil rights and other fundamental laws just doesn’t jive with reality. If such a move were possible guns would have been made illegal in the US long ago. Just more paranoid reactionism
Lol, so we can make it illegal for humans to drive themselves, they need to be driven by humans instead.
Your retort makes 0 sense. One human is just as flawed as the next. An Uber driver is no less likely to get in a crash than I am in my personal car.
Have you flown in the USA in the last 17 years? The government has taken every freedom they can rip away from us and always under the guise of safety and security.
You tell everyone they have to hire a professional driver and you’ll be chucked out of office on your ear the next election.
You tell everyone that by 2040 or whatever date, you can only have autonomous vehicles on the road “to save the children!” and you’ll get damn near unanimous votes in the halls of congress and be reelected till you die.
The difference is computers. Right now the government can’t push a button and make your gun disappear, but the tech already exists for the car companies (at government behest) to slow and stop your car, and lock you in it. Add autonomous driving and now the government has the power to transport you to the nearest reeducation center against your will – all remotely with a push of a button.
A trained and government paid human > a civilian (in this paranoid dystopian fantasy). Especially in the context of urban and coastal areas pushing for more public transportation.
As for people eager to legislate and move over to autonomous cars, that’s also a lie:
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/12/people-don-t-trust-driverless-cars-researchers-are-trying-change
http://www.wbur.org/bostonomix/2017/05/25/mit-study-self-driving-cars
So aside from the huge technical, liability, legislative, and logistical hurdles, there’s the simple fact that these legions of folks eager for autonomous cars simply don’t exist- at least in significant enough numbers to move any kind of significant levers. You guys are just making this all up as you go with zero regard for reality. SAD!
More race tracks!
The only thing that really scares me is that you know autonomous vehicles will track every movement, every trip, time, place, maybe even inside the cabin. All this data will be kept in the cloud somewhere. Im sure it will be illegal or certain protections as to privacy will be afforded consumers, but you know certain government agencies, hackers, foreign governments, etc will tap into it to serve their purposes. Personally, Im not that interesting but not too keen on the idea of being tracked either. It is inevitable that all movement will be tracked and probably stored for the rest of your life.
I suppose to a certain extent anyone who carries a smartphone or even a regular cell phone has this same issue. But its a lot easier to travel with your phone off or just left at home than it is to travel without a vehicle.
It’ll be like using YouTube or iTunes. There’s a “privacy agreement” you agree to in order to use their product. Don’t like it, fine, nobody’s forcing you to use YouTube, but where else are you going to go? You don’t have to agree to being data-mined in your autonomous car, but have fun walking.
Unfortunately, between the extensive traffic camera system and today’s telematics systems in the cars, you can already easily be tracked.
I’m not really interested in my only future driving being on racetracks or in the city’s 4th of July parade.
My two plans right now:
1. Buy an ICE-powered boat. I don’t think boats will be subject to an autonomous-only rule so I should be able to have my subscribed AV pod take me to a marina every weekend.
2. Move to a country where nonAVs aren’t banned.
life is short – death is sure
we can’t even keep trains from wrecking –
and they are on fixed tracks –
really ?
That’s a good point. Also, trains typically not in heavy traffic.
However, I have to believe the whole of the auto industry has already outspent autonomous train tech by an order of magnitude and then some. Its been in development and will continue in development for quite some time yet. Don’t think any of the automakers is interested in putting a half baked system to market before its ready. But at some point, there will be beta testers. Any takers?
Half baked systems are already on the market, namely every single car with self-driving feature that requires a human behind the wheel to be able to take over with no notice.
Car companies are already rolling this stuff out one advance at a time. They’re not going to wait until the product is fully baked. A few years ago it was radar-based cruise control. Then they added lane-keeping assist, and parking assist, driver alertness measures, etc. One thing at a time, pushed out the door as soon as they could bolt it into the car.
So, the autonomous cars will be programmed to not run over people. They will stop if someone walk out in front of them. What if someone were to walk out in front of a car and has a partner walk out behind the car? What if these two have guns? I know what a gun looks like and what it can do. I’d choose to run the guy over. What will the car be programmed to do?
Then they’ll drive your corpse to the emergency room, dump you out and speed off looking for their next victim…I mean customer. LOL
There are already entire websites devoted to scheming on how to mess with autonomous cars for benine and hilarious purposes. I have to imagine there is a lot of scheming on exactly what you put forth here, for far more malevolent purposes.
You’d be a sitting duck in an autonomous car. And can you imagine being kidnapped because your car got hacked? Or worse, you’re kids being taken that way?
Excellent points.
I already plan on slowing to a crawl in front of every autonomous car I see. That’ll teach you not to drive.
Cars are already connected to the internet, and by extension hackable. Why haven’t any of your scenarios materialized yet?
https://www.wired.com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-jeep-highway/
I am with mbella. In my last 15 years of work I was at a company that made aircraft components. Part of my job was to keep up with Airworthiness Directives and Service Bulletins from the FAA and others.
Being a curious sort I often read things related to that.
One interesting article was about what is usually referred to as the Auto-Pilot. After some “incidents” the FAA conducted an intense years long investigation of some these systems. They found that entered commands could lead to actions that even the maker of the system/software did not know about.
Something that is sometimes heard on a cockpit voice recording, just before an airplane gets in serious trouble is, “Why did it do that?”
This is similar to the electronically shifted transmissions. A problem has plagued them from the inception (See the Crisler 4 speed of the 80s and 90s) and is still here. For example the Ford problem reported here on TTAC. Apparently the system detects a fault and goes into “limp home” mode which is often 2nd gear. Not good if the vehicle is on a curving freeway transition in the rain or snow.
Devices fail all the time. Even the most dedicated techie should acknowledge that phones, pads, and other gizmos glitch. Often a shut down and restart will restore function, but how long does that take?
One of my hobbies is flying radio controlled model airplanes.
About 15 years ago there was a big advance in the RC systems used. 2.4 Ghz replaced 72 Mhz, which was subject to interference. The early 2.4 systems required a more constant supply voltage. If there was a dip in voltage below a certain level the microprocessor in the airplane receiver would interpret this as a shut off and restart. This could take 2 seconds or longer. Many RC planes went into the ground or trees before this was figured out.
“Terrify” is a strong word, but as I’ve said before I’m dubious of the insurance liabilities.
As long as there is a human behind the wheel (assuming there is a wheel), that human will be assigned blame in an accident. Liability will gradually transfer to the mfrs as we move from Level 2 to Levels 3, 4, and 5 autonomy, which is why I think we’ll never actually get to Level 4 or 5.
http://www.repairerdrivennews.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/sae-autonomy-standards.jpg
The only scenario in which the mfr will absorb blame is a single-vehicle crash in a car fitted with SAE Level 4 or 5 autonomy. Lower levels require human intervention, and multi-vehicle accidents will likely involve a human driver who can be blamed.
What terrifies you about a self-driving future?
Snow, sleet and ice.
I have a hard time accepting the argument that autonomous cars will limit our freedom. As long as you can get into your own car and go wherever you like, whenever you like, then there is no loss of personal freedom.
Excluding route preferences – I do not think freedom should extend to our personal preferences of how we operate our vehicles on public roads between points A and B. Freedom to tailgate, freedom to weave, freedom to double the posted speed limit – should anyone be free to do these things?
Freedom of movement will absolutely be curtailed, maybe not at first but it will happen. I have a Grandmother that lives in a gated community; the guard has to obtain her permission before allowing me to enter. Imagine how much easier this would be with self-driving cars. No need for paid security and a gate, simply enter the destination in the car and if you have not been granted permission, the self-driving car will not take you there.
Don’t believe me? Take a look at Google maps and ask it for directions to a local store. The app will let you know if the store will be open at your predicted arrival time. If a store will be closed and you do not work there, why would a car take you? Even more insidious, when you search Google for places to eat/shop it doesn’t show you all the places you could visit, only the ones it wants you to visit (paid for advertising). Try doing a search for local restaurants; you will be amazed at how many places don’t show up unless you zoom into them very closely.
All of this will start happening for good reasons. A road is being repaved, why put up signs? Just tell all cars to re-route until the project is finished. A parade is scheduled through downtown, cars will be re-routed around. The local park has a curfew at dusk, car will not take you there if you will arrive too late. This is just the tip of the iceberg, when people in the government realize they have this level of power over movement, you can bet they will use it.
I’d love to see them, so long as they use the comprehensive technology that Google is working on and not the simpler version employed by Tesla. My only concern is that, since they run on a wifi network, there’s the potential for hackers. If hackers got into the system that would be a disaster.
I am totally in favor of self-driving cars. The loss of enjoyment is massively outweighed by the tens of thousands lives saved annually.
My main concern is that terrorist groups will program them to deliver car bombs. ISIS has already done that with drone quadcopters.
But, is a life not enjoyed a life worth living?
No terror here – but it will be interesting to see the transition. I’m more worried about the mix of self-driving cars and older vehicles. The autonomous cars may be less aggressive and take less risks than human controlled vehicles. This will lead to some interesting situations, one that could anger the riders in a self-driving car.
eg – you’re riding in your autonomous car when someone else cuts you off. Or you come to a 4-way stop, and the other driver blows through, once they realize that your vehicle will stop instead of colliding with him.
Or maybe I’m worrying about nothing?
I spend more time on motorcycles than I do in cars.
I’m not thrilled at the thought of maneuvering in traffic populated by the electronic equivalent of the timid old blue hair in a Buick Century. Or at least I won’t be until I figure out how to play off the self-driving car’s timidness.
After that, life has the potential to be fun. I just hope I’m still young enough to enjoy it by the time I’ve got it figured out.
“I spend more time on motorcycles than I do in cars.”
I’d be very surprised if riding motorcycles on public roads isn’t banned too.
Selling motorcycles is big business. I don’t see that coming to be. The way folks are talking it’s like autonomous cars will take anything that isn’t an autonomous car off the road. Not realistic. The tech will have to account for everything (which is why I personally don’t see it happening any time soon)
Additional thought: I also spend a lot of time riding bicycles. As transportation and commuting devices, not just sports equipment.
Where are they going to fit into this? And, unlike a motorcycle, I’m probably not going to be able to outrun a self-driving car on a bicycle.
It’s a bridge too far. The issue is cost and liability. When research funding is withdrawn, big brain code cruncher will wander off to another gig knowing even a poor driver can process, interpret and interact between stationary and moving mass as well as any system they can build.
As for liability, coders can program rules but no method to get others to follow them, hence that annoying disclaimer button we all push employing our gps. In addition, insurance companies are in the risk business, they will not insure vehicles with a higher accident rates.
I can see “self-driving” working in certain geographic areas and not others.
What terrifies me is the thought that one day I’ll have to file a “flight plan” to drive my 1967 Mustang over to the golf course to play 18.
Excellent post.
I too am not against them, I believe they’ll be quite beneficial to some. Imagine being too old or physically unable to drive. Autonomous cars will greatly increase freedom for someone like that.
Just so long as private car ownership isn’t outlawed or regulated out of existence. That’s my only fear. For the guy who HATES driving (and probably sucks at it anyway), he can have his roboPrius take him to work. I’m fine with that.
“Just so long as private car ownership isn’t outlawed or regulated out of existence. That’s my only fear.”
+1 John. I don’t care about the mere existence and use of AVs. It is the potential banning of manual driving on all public roads that worries me.
The problem with this manual-auto coexistence is the interests of A) regulators and B) insurance companies. They don’t want you to have the manual option when the automatic option is there for the taking.
“Auto is safer so everyone must use auto. Think of the children!”
The catastrophic loss of privacy. Will my autonomous car know how to get around without phoning home to Google? I can just imagine the notifications: “Hi ptschett, we’ve noticed that you’ve asked your car to go to the liquor store twice this month. We’re required to notify your employer and your health insurance provider of trips past the 2nd one.”
If you own a cell phone and aren’t paranoid enough to leave it at home every time you go somewhere that someone might find questionable, that data’s already available. But yeah, that data should be protected and regulated to ensure privacy. I’m not super confident that will happen.
Not if you have a simple flip phone, preferably an anonymous pre-paid type, with removable battery. Just leave the phone off and battery removed unless you need to use it.
It’s primarily today’s idiot young people that need to be connected 24/7. I’m sure they’ll be the first to sign up when implants such as the Cerebrum Communicator are available. The millenials will be lining up in droves.
The nation is already a gilded cage, just spend a month overseas and then come back for proof.
The difference between today’s gilded cage and tomorrow’s Brave New World is local fiefdoms and corporations do not have access to the information collected by alphabet agencies and their Silicon Valley proxies. When that happens, a dystopia will emerge. All your base are belong to them.
Lightspeed fits today’s active lifestyle, whether your on the job or having fun. Lightspeed briefs, style and comfort for the discriminating crotch!
If you use Google Maps you should check out the “My Maps” feature. If so, you’ll see why your fears are unfounded.
Missing someone’s point entirely isn’t a logical response. Your intention to shut everyone down who has an opinion that in any way conflicts with our utopian autonomous future is fine, but your lack of a decent retort many times hampers your effort.
How did I miss his point? Google already tracks you through the Maps app, and doesn’t do what he fears. Its home device doesn’t offer any kind of subjective observations of user behavior. Why would any of that change with autonomous cars?
Nearly every “fear” listed in the comments is without warrant and is not grounded in any kind of reality. If stating that makes me the bad guy I’m OK with that.
On the other hand, being paranoid doesn’t mean someone isn’t out to get you.
But actually, Sporty, in this I agree with you 100%. And ultimately, my life is FAR too boring for anyone to care. I don’t even mind targeted ads – afterall, if I have to deal with ads in the first place, they may as well be relevant to my life.
They really want me to sign up for AARP already.
I should mention that I’m just assuming two things:
1) level 5 autonomy becomes feasible and realistic for most person-miles travelled, and
2) the “if it saves one life, it’s worth it” logic that’s been tried in other areas becomes feasible toward a removal of human-operated cars from the road
We aren’t there now, but I wouldn’t call it impossible. And if we were to get there, what would keep the autonomous car from being politically feasible to be used as a tool to attempt to prevent other behaviors that can be freely chosen now but are potentially harmful to oneself or to others? (I could have just as well said “McDonalds” as “the liquor store”.)
@ptschett the same thing that keeps liquor stores and McDonalds around in abundance- the ability for them to sell their goods at a profit. Your own examples have disproven your point.
@sportyaccordy, actually my state was dry from statehood in 1889 till the 21st Amendment became inevitable 40-some years later; legality or social acceptance of a behavior is not guaranteed. What keeps a neo-temperance movement (maybe named Mothers Against Dangerous Driving, where dangerous = manual) from trying to remove those of us still bitterly clinging to our steering wheels and foot pedals from the road, if level 5 autonomy becomes widespread and proves to be so much safer than the old way?
I for one love the feeling of getting behind the wheel and just cruising for no other reason than just to have the feeling of control of something. On top of that has anyone thought about what industries autonomous vehicles will eliminate or put in serious decline? Working in collision repair, in itself a billion dollar a year industry, there will be an immediate drop in business due to less accidents. Less accidents mean less parts, and less parts means less metals, less workers etc… Here the slippery slope starts to gain momentum and the snowball gets bigger and bigger.
I’m terrified about what my kids are going to do in their car in their teens.
seriously keeps me up at night.
Are you referring to driving or…extracurricular activities?
Clearly not driving.. haha.
Don’t worry, parent mode will stream the camera feed directly to your phone.
You’ll probably have 2-way audio too.
There’s an episode of Black Mirror about this. Most recent season (Netflix) episode 2.
I’ll have to check it out
I am terrified about where I will put my hands if there is no steering wheel. Suppose I stretch out my arm and accidentally touch a female passenger on the shoulder or neck without her permission – could I be arrested for sexual assault? In this day and age it sounds very risky to me, but perhaps this self-driving technology will create a whole new market for new kinds of liability insurance.
You can join the “60 mile an hour club” a lot more easily!
1960s: Don’t trust anyone over 30 or anyone in authority
2010s: Why yes by all means, I’d love to have behemoth corporations and govt control my life
Brought to you by, Millennial Idiots™ (minus Corey whom we grandfathered in to the winning team).
Didn’t even take public school that long either.
“The Nazi Propaganda Ministry, directed by Dr. Joseph Goebbels, took control of all forms of communication in Germany: newspapers, magazines, books, public meetings, and rallies, art, music, movies, and radio. Viewpoints in any way threatening to Nazi beliefs or to the regime were censored or eliminated from all media.”
https://www.ushmm.org/outreach/en/article.php?ModuleId=10007677
***Why does this sound so familiar?***
Oy oy thank ye.
I mean, either way, you have to sort of entrust your safety to some faceless mass (either the average masses who think that revving over 3000rpm will grenade their engine and can’t stay within a lane, or the Silicon Valley Bros who consider themselves UberMensch and above the law)*. I’ve seen nothing to suggest we’re ever going to get better drivers, but I can at least reasonably assume that technology eventually gets better.
*Completely ignoring that just by driving a modern, non-Morgan automobile, you’re already entrusting some faceless corporate mass.
The rise of self-driving vehicles doesn’t “terrify” me. It makes me sad that I’ll lose my main hobby and the passion for cars that I’ve had my entire life. But, as long as I can own my own car, I guess I’ll learn to deal with it. I’m not putting my family in a shared autonomous car, though. Think of the nastiness it’ll accumulate after just a few passengers. It’ll be like the greasy NYC taxicabs but worse. No thanks.
A few points:
– Most people regard driving as a chore, not a joy. Yeah, it’s nice if a car can make the driving experience pleasant, but given the choice, I imagine most people would be just fine letting a machine do it for them.
– I’m not seeing how autonomous vehicles would lead to some sort of ban on private vehicle ownership. It would be less common, to be sure, but I don’t imagine it would be any more illegal than it is to own a car in Manhattan. Your freedom to go where you want, when you want, won’t be curtailed.
What’s really going to suck is when you have to pick your self-driving service provider.
Me: “OK Google, drive me Texas Steakhouse.”
Google: “I have a coupon for Outback Steakhouse.”
Me: “Nah, just go where I said.”
Google: “Listen, I can take you to the Texas Steakhouse. But I’m not getting on the Interstate, and I’m not going above 35 mph. It will take 75 minutes to get there. If you’re willing to go to Outback, I can get you there in 35 minutes, and get you a free Bloomin’ Onion.”
Do we need car neutrality rules?
Doesn’t terrify me in the slightest. I just am pessimistic about how long it is going to take until even a minority of cars on the road are autonomous, never mind the overwhelming majority – which is what it will take before the real advantages of them happen.
Ultimately, I will be happy with an Interstate-only proper autopilot that can drive across the Everglades on I-75 while I take a nap. I’m happy to do the hard parts, just take over the boring ones.
My worry may easily prove to be a non-issue – if so, I apologise in advance. My fear regards the mechanization of a process that’s anything but routine or predictable.
You can make an autonomous machine that will score infinite bullseyes in darts, because all that requires is accuracy and repetition. You can create a near-unbeatable chess computer, because there are rules and strategies to follow. Driving isn’t just about accuracy, rules and procedures, though.
At the moment, we all co-exist on the road because we understand the human condition. We take risks, we act on instinct, and in the vast majority of cases, we get away with it. Letting logic get in the way isn’t something we’ve ever had to face.
In theory, autonomous control puts us all at stalemate. Follow-my-leader, with every car working to the letter of the law. That’s just not the way we’re used to doing things. We like to jockey for position. We hate waiting in turn, and I’m not convinced that a logic-based autonomous driver will be able to make sense of the comparatively random acts of humans.
Every time I’m in a car with active cruise control, the car will slam the brakes on if I steer ‘too close’ to the car in front during an overtake. Sometimes you have to do this to pass safely without obstructing faster traffic, but the car’s logic doesn’t understand this.
Sometimes you need to build up speed in lane before pulling out for the maneuver. Active cruise won’t allow this, because it assumes you’re hell-bent on crashing into the car in front. My worry is that the first generation of fully autonomous technology will be based on just such logic.
Whenever a potential hazard is detected, the default autonomous reaction will be to brake. The very moment any pre-set parameters are broken, the car will react by slowing down, probably in a very sudden manner.
Right now, if a car sneaks into the safety-zone we’ve left between us and the car in front, we can react with a furious gesture and blast of horn, before gently easing back and re-establishing our space. An autonomous car is far more likely to emergency brake, and who knows what this means for cars following in the same lane.
Autonomous cars may be able to exercise a certain degree of prediction, but they can only react with logic.
Personally, I reckon we’re at an autonomous sweet-spot right now. Cars have never been so relaxing. If you’re not in a hurry, ‘autopilot’ systems and the like are a real boon. Perhaps we should quit while we’re ahead?
Especially if logic-driven autonomy proves unable to co-exist with human instincts. Because, be they hazardous or wise, the volatile nature of our decisions could result in us loosing the freedom to make them.
Warrant-less (because you’re in public and your expectations of privacy are non-valid according to the USSC) real-time surveillance.
There is a simple explanation for the order of magnitude discrepancy between accident rates for human drivers and for today’s autonomous vehicles. The autonomous vehicles do not behave the way human drivers expect. An important part of a human driver’s skill set is being able to evaluate a situation and predict with high accuracy how surrounding drivers will respond to it. Human drivers have the wisdom to make temporary compromises in safety (e.g. briefly following too closely after someone cuts in front of you) to avoid creating a more dangerous situation (e.g. braking abruptly). It will be a long time, if ever, before autonomous vehicles can do as well. Right now, autonomous vehicles resemble the driver who brags about never having an accident despite having precipitated many.
A popular argument for autonomous vehicles is that they are supposed to be safer than human drivers. I question that given the order of magnitude difference in accident rates between the two. You can be injured or killed in an accident you failed to avoid even though you weren’t legally at fault. There is also the question of safer compared to whom. Averages lump drivers with good records together with drunks, joyriding teenagers and sufferers of dementia. However, autonomy is sold on the premise that such vehicles do better even than generally safe drivers.
This is interesting because I already see it. I find it very dangerous how my car slams on the brakes all the time automatically. I almost killed people yesterday when a semi truck behind me slid on ice slightly sideways after slamming on the brakes because MY car slammed on the brakes.
How this works:
I’m minding my own business driving 70 in the right lane. A car decides its going to squeeze in between me and the car in front of me going 70. My car is keping a 3 second distance so this isn’t really DANGEROUS for anyone involved.
My car, which now needs 3 seconds between me and the car in front of me SLAMS on the brakes taking the car down to 55 for no reason. All the cars behind me slam on their brakes because I slam on my brakes. Once my car gets down to 55 and creates a 3 second gap, a 20 second gap opens up as my car “begins” to re-accelerate.
I see variations of this all the time, and its only getting worse.
The more obvious case is zipper merges. I have a zipper merge on my way to work every day. I’m cruising at 70 or so when I hit this zipper merge. Once again my car SLAMS on the brakes endangering people behind me and holding up traffic.
Now in my area I bet less than .1% of cars are using even simple semiautonomous things like dynamic cruise, but I can see this creating a ripple effect quickly.
The flip side is drivers need to get more intelligent too. If someone squeezes in front of a tesla, and the tesla slams on its brakes, that doesn’t mean you need to lock your brakes up… You know what its going to do- create its gap and get on with its life.
The biggest problem I have is that so many drivers are so stupid about new technology they think I’M the one braking. I’m not, its my car, and my cars doing whatever its been programmed to do!
I love the freedom, utility and control that driving my own vehicle gives. I fear that the advent of A/V’s will cause the growth of restrictions and costs on that activity. Still, few things in life are as bad – or as good, as they seem. A/V’s are coming, no matter what. They will follow that rule, too.
You know how us “drivers” used to mercilessly mock those “Sport mode” buttons that started showing up in the late 80’s?
I’m terrified that my autonomous ride to work won’t have a “Starbucks mode” button that increases following distances, slows cornering speeds, and gets extra defensive so I don’t spill my Venti non-fat, half-caff Salted Caramel Mocha on my dry cleaned clothes.
TTAC: “QOTD: What Terrifies You About a Self-driving Future?”
ANS: I would say that “terrify” is too strong a word, but I do have several real concerns:
1) This could be the beginning of a “slippery slope” of mandatory autonomous vehicles required for all drivers (loss of freedom);
2) The image analysis and software algorithms are very complex (was my profession), and “bugs”,sensor failures/obscuration (e.g., sticking snow), and hardware crashes will abound to cause accidents in marginal conditions;
3) No current on-board computer/sensor system has the capability of handling marginal conditions (e.g. , rain + wind+ darkness; snow+ sleet + road ice; Intense high-speed, lane-changing traffic) as well as a skilled, well-trained driver;
4) Over-safe compensation, — cars that stop for unknown “hazards” that are not preprogrammed into the data base (like a paper bag blowing across the road, causing a rear-end collision (yes, it already happened));
5) Lack of Foresight /Judgment driving: a human operator, with skill and experience, knows when to slow down and/or change lanes; and /or leave the highway because “things” are getting “dicey”. That has nor been demonstrated in autonomous vehicles.
6) Objects from above. No satisfactory solution for things falling, or are perceived (by a human) to be potentially falling.
So, am I favor of some level of autonomous vehicles? Yes. The elderly and handicapped could benefit enormously, if their use occurs in daylight hours in near-ideal conditions. And for those taking a long trip on an interstate in low traffic and good conditions, it might be relaxing to let the car do the driving ,— with the driver still ready to take over (^_^)…
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Does an AI have the ability to do a U-turn when road construction has the street down to one lane? Or can I just expect to sit there in traffic for half an hour?
Software quality.
It’s not there yet. Will likely never be.
Also, AI isn’t.