It could happen, but then again, it may not. One thing’s for certain: buyers of the twin-motor Tesla Model 3 stand to wait less than those holding out for a base model.
In response to a Twitter user who asked when we can expect the all-wheel-drive variant of the massively hyped electric sedan (“My car has been sitting in the configuration for months waiting on it”), Tesla CEO Elon Musk replied with an approximate month. For this prediction to come true, Tesla must reach its second production target. It missed the first.
“We need to achieve 5k/week with Model 3 before adding complexity that would inhibit production ramp,” Musk tweeted. “So probably July.”
Actually, Tesla missed its first two Model 3 production targets — the first called for a production rate of 5,000 Model 3s per week by the end of 2017; the second, by end of the first quarter of 2018. Last week, the automaker reported that the week bridging March and April saw 2,020 Model 3s roll off the Fremont, California assembly line. The latest prediction was for 2,500/week by the end of Q1 2018.
For various reasons, including Musk’s claim of issues related to battery module assembly, the ramp-up of Model 3 production is taking longer than expected. Only pricier Long Range models have started production, with Musk previously telling reservation holders that the cheaper, $35,000 base models won’t see the assembly line until the end of 2018. His last prediction for dual-motor cars was mid-2018, so that goalpost hasn’t really changed.
Obviously, it makes more financial sense to get pricier variants into the driveways of buyers first, even if it means those who put $1,000 down on a base model when orders opened might have to wait close to two years to see production start. By then, the $7,500 federal tax credit will likely be halved.
Most reservations holders have no intention of buying the absolute cheapest base model once they’re invited to configure it online (options pile up fast), but that $35k sticker was awfully tempting. Given the level of devotion seen among the brand’s faithful, a mass exodus of reservation holders isn’t likely. Plus, rising production volumes, while still lower than expected, could help soothe budding frustrations. For some, anyway.
Cheat Sheet writer Eric Schaal isn’t among this group. Last week, he penned a column telling everyone exactly why he’s dumping his reservation.
[Image: Tesla]
I’m with Eric Schaal – canceled my reservation about 3-4 weeks ago. Worried about all the same issues. Plus, Model 3 is a “turn drivers into passengers” car. It’s NOT a car for drivers.
I’ve waited 20+ years to be in a good financial situation and buy a really fun car. Can’t swing a model S P100D. Model 3 falls well short of that, in my books.. Too far short for the price / delivery schedule / features, IMHO.
Don’t hold your breath. “July” is pretty loosely defined – is that production start, configuration start, shipping start, or delivery start?
Tesla has already built some Ds (by hand, of course) for testing, but I doubt the online production equipment is ready, not to mention the EPA testing and safety testing, production training, etc.
People who want the D don’t even know what it will cost, let alone what expensive packages Tesla will force them to buy in addition to the D option.
People who want the base model can kiss it goodbye. It is most likely a money loser unless it gains a few options, and it will become less appealing as the Federal money evaporates.
That Eric Schaal piece reflects most of the reasons I canceled, too, except I’m not in it for the climate change stuff, and the only used EV I’d consider actually is a Tesla, not a Leaf.
I’ll add one more reason for canceling: in addition to my reliability concerns, I doubt Tesla can actually service all these cars if they have a problem. Then what do you do?
I don’t really see the month of July as a loose definition. There is no “year” associated with it.
Did I read correctly that you can’t lease these? I don’t want to own one, but I would consider leasing one if it leased out right. My office has very underutilized free electric charging in prime parking spots right out front, I could basically commute for free ex lease payment and insurance.
So get a Bolt. Or a Volt. Or a Leaf.
Eww. I don’t want a nasty Bolt, Volt, or Leaf dorkmobile.
What makes a Bolt “nasty” but a Model 3 “worthy”?
The Bolt is obviously WAY more sorted out than anything Tesla will ever hope to be…
So you COULD have something reliable that gives you free commute, OR you could have something that doesn’t exist and which is a piece of crap.
Your rationale is the equivalent of insisting on wearing high heels for mountain climbing. Fashion before form!
really? You don’t know why someone might want a fast, sleek sedan instead of a slower runt minivan? I mean, Rosie O and Jennifer Lawrence are both girls, so they must be interchangeable right?
@S2k – ” Rosie O and Jennifer Lawrence are both girls, so they must be interchangeable right?”
Hahaha. Touche. From your handle (and IIRC from prior posts) you drive an S2000. A Model 3 would be the more consistent choice. Or if I may, Cindy Crawford is the older model (S2000 is still hot) while the Model 3 is Jennifer Lawrence.
And you find the duck lipped hunchback attractive?
I’ve seen many model 3s and they are NOT that attractive. The Model S is far and away the most attractive.
I find the 3 way more attractive than the Bolt. I don’t like one-box designs. The 3 isn’t as pretty as the S, but if I cant have the hot older sister, I’ll take the slutty attainable one.
I read Eric Schaal’s story and I’m in agreement. I drove a Model 3 that a customer of mine recently took delivery of. I could go on about the all-encompassing controls limited to the weird single touch panel, but my biggest issue by far is the price vs. features. His Model 3 cost $65K for RWD/extended range/auto-pilot. The car did not feel like a $40K car, much less $65K. The AWD with similar range and features will easily be $70K.
Tax credits and funny-money aside… that’s just laughable.
“Tax credits and funny-money aside… the emperor has no clothes.”
FIFY.
I said it on here a long time ago – the Model 3 is not an electric 3-series, it’s a really fast electric Honda Civic. Except it is turning out to be more like a really fast electric Chevy Cavalier.
But doesn’t that second motor cut range in half? Aside from increasing acceleration, what would be the purpose of that second motor?
No it shouldn’t. I’m certain that like the majority of AWD cars on the market it will only use the extra motor when needed for traction in which case you’ll have 2 motors working half as hard, or when you are going for max acceleration where you’ll have two motors working at the battery’s max discharge rate which will drain the battery quicker.
@highdesertcat:
It turns out that Tesla’s dual motor designs are actually slightly more efficient than the single motor designs, providing more range also.
This is because the system chooses the more efficient motor (they’re not identical) under low-load conditions.
Plus, dual motors gives you AWD, and the Tesla AWD system is phenomenal in snow or on the track.
But it’s expensive, and I have no interest in it.
LOL…. Now that’s funny.
Musk tweeted. “So probably July.”
July 2019, 2020, or 2021?
Coming? Coming where? To a road? C’mon – really?!