Sales of minivans in the United States in 2019 plunged below Great Recession levels as every member of the existing quintet reported sharp year-over-year declines.
The 408,982 sales produced by the Dodge Grand Caravan, Chrysler Pacifica, Honda Odyssey, Kia Sedona, and Toyota Sienna in calendar year 2019 were a far cry from the 1.1 million sales produced by the sector in 2005, or even the 553,506 sold three years ago. But after hovering just below or above 3 percent of the market for half a dozen years, and after overall volume showed signs of recuperation through the middle half of the last decade, the segment’s 2019 collapse suggests we haven’t reached bottom yet.
At the current rate of decline, America won’t even acquire 300,000 minivans next year.
It’s a shame.
Granted, the author’s bias was not checked at the door. The modern minivan’s practical prowess (the ancient minivan’s practical prowess, for that matter) is indisputable, a fact our family encounters every day with three children, a large dog, an ATV trailer, assorted bikes, and sleds galore. Not unlike its rivals, our 2018 Honda Odyssey combines high levels of power, fuel efficiency, space efficiency, affordability, and unique packaging that popular three-row crossovers can’t muster. We’ve owned one before acquiring the current van, and despite the allure of pickup trucks, Tellurides, and hot hatches, we’re likely to own another.
Yet if a minivan purchase was typical in 2005, it was unexpected by 2013, unusual in 2019, and is likely to be downright odd by 2022.
How bad is it? And how bad is it going to be?
First, take it a model at a time. It won’t take long: hardly any contenders remain.
For the top-selling Dodge Grand Caravan, 2019’s 122,648 sales marked a four-year low. Grand Caravan sales fell 19 percent, year-over-year, in 2019. After enduring a hazy outlook for the last number of years, the Grand Caravan now appears to be approaching the end of its life cycle thanks to the dawn of a downmarket Chrysler Pacifica addition, the Voyager. Caravan sales peaked in the mid ’90s, with back-to-back 300k annual results in 1996 and 1997, and last topped the 200k mark in 2006. 
The Grand Caravan’s Pacifica cousin worked with the Dodge to garner 54 percent of the American minivan market in 2019. Yet Pacifica sales, not unlike the Dodge, were down 17 percent, year-over-year. For the Pacifica, 2019 was the lowest-volume full year since its 2016 launch. At 97,705 sales, 2019 was just the third year since the recession that the Chrysler brand failed to sell more than 100,000 minivans. 
It wasn’t even three years ago that Honda believed the U.S. minivan market was “stable at around half a million,” and that the company’s share of that market “is pretty well spoken for” at 125,000 units. The 25-percent market share figure is not outlandish – the Odyssey’s 99,113 sales in 2019 translated to 24 percent of the segment. But Honda’s belief in the size and stability of the minivan segment in 2017 now proves to be unrealistic. 2019 was the lowest-volume year for the Odyssey since 1999, the year Honda released its first proper sliding-doors people carrier. 
In the Kia Sedona’s world, little has changed. The Sedona was an afterthought when it arrived in 2001 and has maintained that status. Gone, however, are the days when existing as an afterthought in America’s minivan category translated to 50k+ sales per year, which is what the Sedona managed consecutively from 2003 through 2006. Kia reported only 15,931 Sedona sales in 2019, down 64 percent since 2016.
Unlike the Sedona, the Toyota Sienna has typically been a powerhouse player in America’s minivan market. As recently as 2015, Sienna sales spiked to an eight-year high. In 2019, the tide had turned for a van that’s remained visually and architecturally similar for nine model years. Only 73,585 Siennas were sold last year, the worst full year in the nameplate’s history. Sienna sales are down 55 percent from the 2006 peak.
The picture isn’t pretty for any of America’s five MPV candidates. And based on the downward trend we’ve seen over the last 15 years and ignoring any other market force (EVs, fuel prices, a sudden acceptance of truly mini vans), minivan sales will number fewer than 300,000 by 2021, and fewer than 200,000 by 2024.
[Images: Fiat Chrysler, Honda, Kia, Toyota]
Timothy Cain is a contributing analyst at The Truth About Cars and Driving.ca and the founder and former editor of GoodCarBadCar.net. Follow on Twitter @timcaincars and Instagram.
I wish I could afford one. I don’t like all the buttons for switches on the Honda, but its smooth and roomy. I still like Toyota though.
The minivan market is still better than the EV market, which stands at about 1.1%
Yes, but many EVs are only available in certain states. And you have the issue with charging station availability, because nobody seems to understand the importance of infrastructure in a country that used to pride themselves on it.
Sedans on the decline
Station Wagons gone
Minivans on the decline
Are we converging to CUV/SUV and Trucks and nothing else?
How incredibly boring.
Yes (and I agree it’s boring and horrible).
Increasingly, the only thing that is socially acceptable for a man to drive is a pickup truck and the only thing that is socially acceptable for a woman to drive is a CUV/SUV.
Like it or not, the CUV is going to become the standard “car” template.
This.
Anyone comparing the minivan to the cuv completely misjudges the market. The thing is, minivans are just a fad in one segment. Fads come and go. Just like PLCs were a thing,then they weren’t. And Airbrushed Panel Vans were a thing, then they weren’t.
CUVs on the other hand cross multiple segments and represent a sea change in the industry. Want a small car for 2 people? They make compact CUVs. Want a slightly bigger car for a young family? They make a CUV for that segment. Want a sporty, performance CUV? Got plenty of those. Want a convertible CUV? Got those too. Basically, every sort of car it is possible to make is a CUV if you just add a bit of ride height.
Manuals on the decline.
It’s definitely been boring for a few yeara
Minivans outperform SUVs in every category but the cool factor. For the latter quality, millions of delusional people pay more money and get considerably less.
Loaded up minivans arent cheap. At least their MSRP isnt cheap. Can easily cost as much or more than a 3 row crossover.
This. Minivans with desirable features are expensive. The only one I would consider – a Sienna AWD Platinum – has a sticker of $50k. I can get a LOT of car or SUV at that price.
Most CUVs are NOT cool. Most of them are dowdy, generic, and bulbous. There is really nothing cool about them anymore.
Minivans (or the bloated imposters who claim they are mini) was all the rage after Chrysler launched their versions in the 1980’s. And now 25 years or so later, they are disappearing.
Automakers better note: SUV’s and CUV’s will decline as well as soon as another generation casts them away like Grandpa’s Oldsmobile.
“ Automakers better note: SUV’s and CUV’s will decline as well as soon as another generation casts them away like Grandpa’s Oldsmobile.”
I don’t buy this line for one minute, CUVs suck that’s why youth won’t see the point in buying them after their fad has run. As for SUVs my parents drove IH, GM, and Dodge SUVs and I fell in love with them for the same reasons, my son is already claiming my H1 wagon as his first vehicle.
Station wagons would still be popular if they were actually full-size, BOF, and truckish in nature, the 80s killed that.
If this thesis were correct, there never would have been CUVs in the first place. OEMs would have been entirely happy to continue selling descendants of the first-gen Explorer, second-gen 4Runner, etc, which were truckish and often BOF. But most of the consumers who bought early SUVs told OEMs they wanted better fuel economy, more room inside, and a better ride/handling balance. The CUV was the easy way to accomplish those objectives.
Put another way, there’s a reason Toyota sells roughly twice as many Highlanders as 4Runners at similar prices.
It’s all about compromise and image. Everyone loves the adventurous image of an SUV, but without it’s truck like characteristics, enter CUV which has the “look” people crave, but with the manners of a car that people want.
Sure, in time people will tire of the CUV, but until there’s a viable alternative the CUV will continue to be the vehicle of choice
Finding a family, or in the instances I’ve come across usually the mother of said family, that doesn’t automatically say H*LL NO to even the suggestion of maybe taking a peek at a minivan….
Can’t say this surprises me one bit. It’s the only car I know of where people have said they’d rather be dead than drive one.
I too get the positives of them, particularly getting in and out. But everyone else wants a Traverse/Highlander/Explorer etc.
You’d think by now the crossover would be uncool. And the rare minivan would show off your free spirit lifestyle.
I’m in the club of people that believe crossovers are just lame (uncool) versions of the minivan.
I would quickly take a minivan over the 600lb fatarse inspired design of the Traverse.
The amorphous blobs that are most CUV are really just minivans without the convenience of sliding doors. When I see a CUV I just think of folks like my sister-in-law who was a “never drive a minivan” She just drove an Acadia (which was terrible btw) and all I saw was soccer Mom who thinks ‘she is too cool” for a minvan.
I drove a Sienna for 8 years, couldn’t care less what folks thought, it was a great vehicle.
A minivan has far more room than a CUV and most SUVs and get as good or better fuel mileage. We rented a Pacifica for our last road trip and it was consistently 3-5mpg better per tank than our Rogue ever got on a road trip and is much, much quieter. Has a 100hp advantage and tons more room. A Pacifica is our next purchase.
Of all the cars I have had, the Rogue is the one I won’t miss when it is finally gone. That list includes a 1998 Cavalier I married into.
We’re not talking about you, Hummer, it’s what your wife is willing to drive that drives the market
I’ll be buying one in 2020.
No kidding! Congratulations!
Thanks, it was not easy to talk my wife into driving a van, but I convinced her a couple years ago to take a shot on a used one (’11 Sienna) and she decided she loves it.
Over 250K on it now, and it runs great. Normally I’d run it into the ground except that 2020 is the last model year for the Sienna V6 non hybrid and I want to get one new while I can. So later on this year we’ll be buying.
So how did you talk her into it? Been trying for years with mine but she loves her some Tahoe.
Actually the immediate reason was that we needed something that our mastiff and new baby could ride in together. That ruled out any sedan (since he took up the whole back seat) and most two row CUVs.
She went as far as to try buying a ramp so the dog could climb into my truck that had a larger back seat area, but he refused. So a van with its sliding door and low floor ended up being perfect. She wasn’t sure, so we bought a high mile Toyota that we could sell again for minimal loss if she absolutely hated it.
It didn’t take more than a couple weeks of her seeing how easy it was to load the kid and all his stuff into the sliding doors and she was hooked.
Wow, 250k – what have you had to replace? On our ’08, the only out-of-the-ordinary things have been the fuel pump (low fuel pressure set misfire codes) and new drive axles (outboard CV joints wore out and became noisy).
We bought with 175K or so, so I can’t speak for what may have happened before then.
But from 175K-250K, other than consumables I’ve only replaced front struts (leaking, likely original) and sway bar links. I also had a malfunctioning rear hatch sensor that kept flashing and chiming as if the door was open, so I cut the wire to shut it up.
Otherwise its been unfailingly reliable, has never let her down, and there’s a reason we really aren’t considering any competitors when its time to replace it.
We bought ours in 2011 at 83k (it was formerly a lease vehicle driven by a pharmaceutical rep).
I’ve never owned a minivan, but they’re my favorite rental. Super comfortable, plenty of room for luggage and friends, decent power. Unless there’s a possibility of some light off-roading, minivan all the way.
Minivans are awesome and anyone who has ever taken one on a road trip can confirm it.
If Toyota made a Sienna Hybrid, using the same powertrain as the outgoing Highlander Hybrid, it is reasonably likely that I would own one today. (Yes, I know the next one will be hybrid but it will have the wrong number of cylinders.)
I still may own a Pacifica Hybrid at some point in the future but FCA reliability is a bit scary.
For any family with more than 4 people, they are ideal transportation. Their decline is simply an image problem.
I suspect that we may only have one more generation of all new minivans left from the main players. Perhaps all minivan development is currently on hold after recent declines and this is the last crop of minivans we will ever see.
But, what if you just added fixed doors, a stubby nose, a few inches of ground clearance and AWD? Probably sell pretty well.
I am surprised, as useful as the space is for families, that more automakers dont make more 3 row SUVs in similar dimensions. The Traverse, Enclave and Atlas I think have a pretty good lock on being the closest minivan alternative in terms of interior capacity. Others like the explorer, Hyundai/Kia twins are getting closer.
The “few inches of ground clearance” has major effects on packaging. The biggest of the 3-row CUVs have similar footprints to minivans but substantially less interior volume, almost totally because of the higher floor.
Then they also take the aforementioned ground clearance away with huge front air dams that are as low as a normal sedan.
I think Kia may pack it in if their sales continue to decline, but the remaining three have enough loyal customers to make it worth their while, especially since the minivan can share a platform and powertrain with a larger FWD SUV.
An all new Sienna is coming out later this year.
I have an Odyssey and love it but I can see why minivan sales continue to fall and it’s simple. Most families don’t need a van now because they have just 2 kids. I have 3 but the 3 kid family today is like the 5 kid family or even 4 kid family in the 80s and 90s, ie: the minority. The vast majority of families I know are 2 kids and with 2 kids you can get by with a crv, outback, etc and if you want something bigger with a few extra seats for carpooling you can get a 3 row crossover that’s bigger than a crv and easier to drive than a minivan. People who what 3 rows and have to tow get tahoe/suburban/expedition. Others get a pickup. I agree there’s nothing better than a minivan for a family vehicle but families are smaller now and the minivan is just kinda failing to hit the sweet spot for 2 or 1 kid families needs now.
I think you may be on to something here. Though, we only have two but have had a minivan and now have a Suburban, I am reasonably certain that I am in the minority.
People who buy SUVs instead of minivans are dumb…minivans do everything better…. yada yada yada
Did it occur to any of you that “mini” vans don’t fit in everyone’s garages?
I JUST went through this, was all set to get a minivan, until I realized it won’t fit in our garage without removing the work bench that I use all the time.
Ended up getting a new Sorento, which interestingly is the same size as minivans before they got huge.
This. People love to yammer on about how trucks have just gotten soooooo large compared to years past (even when confronted with specs that say otherwise). Well, here are some minivan specs for you:
1983 Dodge Caravan
175.9 in.(L) x 69.6 in.(W) x 64.2 in.(H)
2013 Dodge Caravan
203 in.(L) x 79 in.(W) x 68 in.(H)
They aren’t mini!
The Transit Connect wagon in its longest guise is 172 or 190x72x72 and is dwarfed by modern “mini” vans.
That’s definitely true, though even our Transit Connect *barely* fits into our tinyish garage. We keep ours outside most all the time, and the other cars inside. It doesn’t seem to mind:-)
I make this point any time I hear the word “minivan” used to describe modern family vans. They need a catchy new term for these things. The only recent vans I know of that would qualify as mini are the Transit and the Mazda5.
I’m also the “it’s a CUV, not an SUV” guy.
“1983 Dodge Caravan
175.9 in.(L) x 69.6 in.(W) x 64.2 in.(H)
2013 Dodge Caravan
203 in.(L) x 79 in.(W) x 68 in.(H)”
You’re comparing a Caravan to a Grand Caravan.
1st gen Grand Caravan was 191 inches long.
I have multiple friends who have Mazda5’s and love them, and it’s a great size for those 1-2 kid families (and almost the exact same size as the original Caravan), but since basically everyone decided they’d rather have a CUV unless they absolutely needed it, I can’t get sliding doors on anything sensibly sized.
Pickup trucks have allure?
Yes, to many…unlike minivans
It’s not that hard to make these sell better…
Two options:
1) make a performance version. Like, stupidly high HP and handling. Rear biased AWD.
2) make a rugged version. Mild increase in ride height. All terrain tires. Basically make it look like someone accidentally put their aftermarket Jeep parts on their minivan.
The current form of minivan screams middle aged woman named Karen with kids whose names rhyme with Aiden. It’s an implied lifestyle that most people do not want to accept as their reality (even if it is true).
Make a vehicle that allows the average person to cosplay as someone interesting and it’ll sell.
You just described the entire CUV market, 100% appearance based.
Mercedes made a stupidly high-performance, minivan-like vehicle, the R 63 AMG. They sold about 200 of them, total.
And an engine rebuild is apparently $56,000.
No if I were in the market for a high performance minivan thy name is 392 Durango.
It didn’t have sliding doors, this not a van.
It was just a weird thing that people thought looked…weird.
These would sell well……when the secondary market is looking for one. Brand new? Dream on. Those “cosplay” people already bought a much more expensive and mostly useless Wrangler JLU.
GM tried that with the Pontiac Trans Sport and Chrysler with the Grand Caravan GT. I think they sold maybe 50 combined (I’m being facetious).
I suppose morons are the “interesting” people these days.
Our ’08 Sienna is approaching 200,000 miles, and next fall, we’ll have two kids in college, and just one left in high school. Our next car will probably be a Camry. Part of me would like to replace the Sienna with a 4Runner (as it’s RWD), but we’d be replacing a 16 mpg vehicle with a 15 mpg vehicle. The 30 mpg four-cylinder Camry will be hard to resist.
How old of a 4Runner would you be buying? My 2016 averages over 20MPG.
Feully has the 2016 4 runner with 4.0 liter V6 averaging 17.4 mpg over hundreds of vehicles and 23,000 fill ups. That is roughly what I would have expected.
When it comes to fuel economy, I feel that “your mileage may vary” is very applicable. Its great to see such a wide sample though when buying a car to see what you should realistically expect. Lots of folks simply dont know how to calculate fuel economy, rely on an unreliable computer, etc.
I think people tend to overstate their fuel economy when they talk about “their” vehicle, especially when it is a well known gas guzzler. At least that has been my experience whenever I talk to truck owners. Nobody enjoys talking about a beloved vehicle’s shortcomings particularly when it makes their purchase look foolish. Sort of like people who gamble frequently tell stories about how they have never lost money at the casino. Similarly you only hear about that one trip that was completely downhill with a tailwind, with no passengers or cargo. “This thing is amazing, It gets 25 mpg!!!!”
I believe Hummer; he lives in the country and his vehicles don’t see much city traffic. But for everyone getting 20 mpg in a 4Runner by driving it on country roads, there’s someone getting 14 mpg in the block-by-block grind.
My dearly departed LX 570 had a couple of tanks under 10 mpg in my ownership, and that’s with a feathery right foot. Under similar circumstances my Highlander Hybrid will get 22-23 mpg (against its combined rating of 28).
Don’t forget mines also 2wd and weighs less than a comparable 4×4
But according to both my in dash meter (20.1) and my hand calculations (20.0-20.6) I’m just a smidgen over 20 avg.
Also I’m not interested in making tall stories about MPG, if I could buy a new H2 today so I wasn’t racking up more miles on mine I would happily motor around at 12MPG all day over the 20+ I average on the 4Runner.
Newsflash: auto purchases nearly always have an emotional element. If it were just about common sense and practicality, we’d all be driving compact hatchbacks, minivans or pickups, and the sports car wouldn’t be a thing at all. If the minivan sales slide is ever to be reversed, manufacturers will need to find a way to tap into that emotional element. The Pacifica has done better than most in this respect, and the fresh styling and AWD option will help their cause. Still, I don’t expect people to be drooling over the Pacifica or any of the current minivans anytime soon.
Article #847 on minivans and still no mention of the Transit Connect passenger van.
What gives, TTAC?
Could it be because the passenger van version is in the noise level of sales compared to the others, or maybe because its cargo van roots disqualifies it? In any case, our TC van soldiers on year after year, lacking the luxury touches of the more mainstream makes, but its relatively trim footprint and euro-feel on the road has me sold. Perhaps I could be talked into a Pacifica hybrid for our next van.
the Transit Connect is primarily a commercial-oriented vehicle, and the passenger versions are quite spartan compared to the likes of the Pacifica, Sienna, and Odyssey.
“despite the allure of pickup trucks, Tellurides, and hot hatches” Tellurides? Eye roll. I don’t know why but I find Kia fanboys the most irritating of the fanboys.
” Kia fanboys”
This is actually a thing?
Well then let me tell you about my awesome Maytag washer…
“This is actually a thing?”
Yes, actually. I’ve encountered a number of people online who are borderline Kia fanboys.
“Well then let me tell you about my awesome Maytag washer…”
you jest, but washing machine fanboys exist too. plenty on YouTube.
Years ago I enjoyed the utility of my Montana with 3 kids until you know, GM 3.4l v6.
Now if they would just make a brown one with diesel and 6 speed manual….
Which is why selling one used is damn-near impossible (in my case, a 2016 Dodge Grand Caravan R/T…fairly loaded). Despite it being supremely utilitarian and comfortable on long trips, it’s not a CUV/SUV…so nobody wants it. Even deeply discounted, as I’m moving overseas and can’t take it with me. I love the thing…holds more than just about any SUV on the market, especially with the stow-n-go seats. But as if I needed reminding, my best friend’s wife really wants something more practical for their growing family…and steadfastly refuses to even consider a van. It’s all in the image.
The explanation is simple. Women hate minivans (for whatever reason I don’t know) and as others have mentioned, would rather be dead than caught driving a minivan. And unfortunately for the minivan manufactures, 70% of purchasing decisions are made by women. There you have it my friends, unless you can convince a woman that driving a minivan is cool, minivans are toast.
And the perplexing thing is, Greg Hamilton, back in the mid 1990’s when I sold Chrysler minivans young families thought they were the coolest. Minivans were an easy sale.
We’ve come full circle with 1920’s proportions more or less reigning supreme. Longer, lower, wider lasted a good while and mini-vans are declasse. The buying public is voting with their dollars.
About the only mini-van on the market that isn’t eye-searingly ugly, at least to me, is the Grand Caravan. However, that’s going away soon. Other than that I have no need for something so large.
My first vehicle was a body-on-frame mini-van and it got 12 mpg max that I got for the princely sum of $748 from a friend’s dad. I can’t recall the last one I drove, but it was only because the owner was inebriated and we needed to get home; I took the keys.
Our 09 Sedona is our fourth minivan, and certainly the best. Of the 3 cars in my fleet, it is the one I want to keep the longest.
It was a great deal when I bought it 1 year used. I’ll never understand people who pay $50k for new minivans, and such pricing may be part of the problem with the minivan market.
I had a 2006 Honda Odyssey which I leased, it was my first break from a wagon. After my lease I went back to wagons and still have one today, thinking about getting the new Audi A6 Allroad wagon in 2021.
The Odyssey was very practical and easy to haul around a kid and two Greyhounds and visiting family but it was more than we needed day to do so back to the wagon I went.
If people bought vehicles based on needs, value and fun, Toyota wouldn’t be able to keep up with Camry TRD demand, Honda with the Accord Sport and Acura with the RDX.
Instead, we live in a world where Explorers and larger rule the roost. The level of overbuying or misunderstanding of one’s own need is the norm.
Or is it?
Status vehicles are tall vehicles. That’s where we are today, and status is more important than needs, value and fun.
We kinda suck.
Increasing requirements for economy and safety will likely evolve the CUV into revolutionary forms:
hatchbacks and wagons!
Be patient, and wait for something that’s more to your liking. Or buy something old, and learn how to wrench.