Ever since bailout measures for the auto industry were first mooted, free market detractors whispered: “WTO.” Nobody took it seriously. True; according to the World Trader Organization’s rules, direct subsidies are not allowed. But it’s equally important to note that the 153-member quango has never put a single issue to a vote since its birth in 1995. Consensus governance means that as long as nobody complains, and especially, as long as everybody plays the same game, the WTO hangs fire on principle. Auto industry “loans”? They’re all doing it. Still there is a line a WTO member mustn’t cross. And America almost crossed it.
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Posts By: Bertel Schmitt
An overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. WAS is being filed from Tokyo this week.
GM flirting with FAW: GM is holding discussions with major Chinese automaker FAW Group to form a partnership for light commercial vehicles, Reuters reports. The two parties have already registered a name with the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, which is the first step of Chinese joint venture courtship. GM already makes light commercial vehicles in China in a three-way tie-up with SAIC and Liuzhou Wuling. GM manufactures Buicks in Shanghai with SAIC, China’s largest auto maker. FAW, one China’s three biggest automakers, operates car manufacturing ventures with Volkswagen and Toyota. SAIC is also in a joint venture with VW. SAIC and FAW have been considered bitter rivals, although there are reports of a thawing. GM said its commercial vehicle venture in China sold 19.7 percent more vehicles in January than a year earlier, helped largely by sales of the Wuling Sunshine minivans.
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An overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. WAS is being filed from Tokyo this week.
India‘s car sales up: Just like neighbor China, India reports rising cars sales for January. Most car companies registered positive sales despite the withdrawal of price rebate schemes, India’s Economic Times reports. Tata Motors continued its negative run, with its passenger vehicle sales declining by 9 percent.
Toyota losses spreading: Toyota’s parts arm Denso and four other Toyota Motor Corp. affiliates are expected to suffer group net losses for the year ending March 31 as the automaker’s drastic output reductions battered businesses along the supply chain, the Nikkei [sub] writes.
Hitachi lowers volume of auto biz: Hitachi considers cutting in half the number of 85 marketing and production sites handling automobile-related equipment, the Nikkei [sub] says. Hitachi group company Clarion has already decided to close a factory in Hitachinaka around the end of 2010 and keep just one domestic factory open. In the US, where Hitachi operates Hitachi Automotive Products (USA) Inc. in the state of Kentucky and three other production bases, two locations may be closed.
Mazda sees red: Mazda expects its first loss in eight years for this fiscal year due to damage sustained from a strong yen and a sharp downturn in consumer sentiment, the Nikkei [sub] reports. The Hiroshima-based company now expects a net loss of ¥13 billion for the current fiscal year through March, compared with its previous forecast for a ¥50 billion profit.
Ford moving to China: Ford Motor Company’s Asia Pacific and Africa region headquarters, will be moving from Bangkok to China, Gasgoo reports. Bangkok will continue to serve as Ford’s ASEAN regional headquarters. In 2004, Volkswagen AG and General Motors relocated their Asia Pacific regional headquarters to China.
Small getting bigger and bigger: Underscoring China’s move from big to small, SAIC-GM-Wuling, a Chinese venture of GM and leading manufacturer of mini-trucks and mini-vans in China, reported all-time high sales of 75,168 units in January, Gasgoo writes. The record sales were largely on the strength of Wuling Sunshine, which remained the best-selling model and saw its sales volume hit 1.4 million units by the end of January 2008.
Not a good start for Deutschland: Germans bought 14.2 percent fewer cars in January 09 than in January 08. Saab (-60.7 percent), Chrysler (-53 percent), Land Rover (-51.9 percent), Nissan (-51.1 percent), Jaguar (-31 percent), Skoda (-30.7 percent), Mercedes (-30 percent), Porsche (-24.7 percent) and Opel (-22.7 percent) were the big January losers in Germany’s car market, Automobilwoche [sub] reports. Ford sold 25.9 percent more. Smaller importers such as Hyundai (+50.8 percent), Mazda (+27.2 percent) and Lancia (+13.7 percent) gained. The trend goes from big to small.
Out with a Bangle: After 17 years with BMW, U.S.-born Christopher Bangle resigns as chief designer of the BMW Group. The Bavarians go Dutch with Adrian van Hooydon. According to Reuters, Chris Bangle is “one of the most well-known and controversial people in the auto industry.” Bangle was the object of multiple online petitions calling for his sacking. After his 2002 redesign of the 7 Series sedan, the vehicle was voted one of the 50 worst cars of all times by Time magazine, along with such other infamous models as the 2001 Pontiac Aztek and the 1998 Fiat Multipla.
Never has the term “Red China” been more appropriate than in the last month. The U.S. is staring into China’s taillights. In January, the unthinkable happened. China dethroned the United States as the world’s largest car market. Not for the year. For one month only—so far. Even the biggest optimists (or pessimists, depending how you look at it) didn’t expect (fear) that China would outsell the U.S. before 2015.
The story unraveled during GM’s monthly sales call on Monday. Michael DiGiovanni, GM’s executive director of global market and industry analysis, dropped the remark that an estimated 790,000 vehicles were sold in China in January. Total U.S. sales in January were about 668,000, DiGiovanni estimated. Automotive News [sub] thinks Di Giovanni is an optimist. According to their tally, 656,881 vehicles were sold in January. DiGiovanni’s Chinese number was even news to China, where official counts are not yet available.
“This is the first time in history that China has passed the U.S. in monthly sales,” DiGiovanni said. “We are estimating that China is going to come in at 10.7 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in January. The U.S. industry, we estimate at about 9.8 million SAAR.”
What happened?
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It’s the hottest road race of the year. Who are the champs and who are the chumps of the global auto industry? Everybody who’s somebody wants to become a statistic in “world motor vehicle production by manufacturer.” Officially, that race is not over until the fat lady at OICA, the “Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobiles” or International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, sings. OICA still has the 2007 numbers on their website. Yet, General Motors has already conceded the top post to Toyota. All other manufacturers have already announced their numbers. While OICA is taking their good old time counting, the Nikkei [sub] performed its own tally.
For most in the German auto business, the Cash-for-Clunkers scheme (€2.5K if you scrap your old and buy a new one) is the savior that rescues Deutschland from eternal CO2-related damnation. Not to mention the fact that dealers are reporting long lines in showrooms. The hottest topic: the money to fund the Abwrackprämie (“wrecking award”) will be gone soon. Germany’s elected representatives only allocated €1.5b for the program—enough for 600K cars or one fifth or Germany’s yearly run rate. If that money gets exhausted anytime soon, turning water into wine will be relegated to cheap stunt status. The media ignores this eventuality, and beats the public into a frenzy. Act fast! Im Windhundverfahren (“greyhound method” a.k.a. first-come-first-serve principle)!
An overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. WAS is being filed from Tokyo this week.
Here they come: China’s SAIC will sell its homegrown cars to Spain, UK, and Israel beginning in 2010, Gasgoo reports. Some of the cars will come directly from SAIC’s assembly plants in Shanghai and Nanjing, while others will come from the company’s UK assembly plants, which SAIC acquired from Rover. The UK will get domesticated Chinese. All cars will comply with EU Euro-5 emission standards.
Germany down 14 percent in January: Not quite 19 percent as feared yesterday, but close. Germany sold 14 percent fewer cars in January 2009 than in January 2007, Automobilwoche [sub] reports. If you are looking for a statistical savior: Adjusted for buying days, the drop is only 8 percent. All eyes on the clunker culling money, €2.5K. It was introduced 1/27, too late to save the first week of the year.
Sania rejects Porsche, Porsche happy: Much to the relief of Porsche, Sweden’s truckmaker, Scania, rejected a bid Porsche had to make after taking over VW, the Wall Street Journal [sub] writes.
Back from the dead after I’m back from Europe: An overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. WAS is being filed from Tokyo this week.
Itai: Japan’s domestic sales of new cars, trucks and buses dropped 27.9 percent year-on-year in January, declining for the sixth straight month, the Nikkei [sub] writes. Sales in January totaled 174,281 vehicles– the lowest for the month since 1976. The Nikkei: “Auto sales are closely monitored by economists since they are the first consumer spending numbers released each month.” And these figures don’t bode well.
Oichi: Honda downgraded its earnings forecast, but still expects to report an 80 billion yen group net profit for the year ending March 31, the Nikkei [sub] reports. Stalled sales in Japan, the U.S. and Europe, as well as the stronger yen, led the automaker to lower its projected profit by 105 billion yen. Strong motorcycle sales in Asia helped Honda skirt the losses seen by Toyota and Nissan.
Aua: Worldwide sales of all brands dropped 25 percent in January. Compared to that, VW’s January loss of 15 percent is not all that bad, says VeeDub’s Martin Winterkorn according to das Autohaus.
For a long time, the Chinese car market looked more like the American and less like the European markets. They liked big, they liked SUVs, they liked real cars with a trunk. For a long time, hatchbacks and subcompacts were unsalable in China. Last year, the picture changed. More and more low cost subcompacts are getting on Chinese roads.
“In China, new-car sales last year rose just 6.7 percent to 9.38m units, slamming the brakes on the market’s double-digit growth. Nonetheless, a batch of automakers enjoyed nearly 30 percent jumps in sales,” the Nikkei (sub) writes. And who might those be?
CEOs usually don’t get paid for gloomy forecasts. It’s their job to instill at least a modicum of stockholders fantasy. If two of them paint a dark picture the same day, take note. Reality will surely be darker.
Speaking at a meeting held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Renault & Nissan Jefe Carlos Ghosn said that worldwide sales of all new cars will likely drop 14 percent to 55 million units this year, the Nikkei (sub) reports. The Nikkei: “His projection means that new-car sales, which slid 9 percent last year, will take an even steeper tumble in 2009. Ghosn also predicted that it will take at least seven years for global new-car sales to recover to their peak level of 69 million units, seen in 2007.” Ghosn expects that the current economic slump will drag on:
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The German clunker culling initiative appears to work. Dealers report increased traffic. According to two independent surveys, one by BKP Consulting and one by Ernst & Young, 30 percent of the surveyed said they would buy a new car due to the clunker culling money, Das Autohaus reports. There are no exact sales data yet. However, both dealers and wrecking yards report increased traffic. The German car interest group VDA revised its prior prognosis of 2.9m units sold in 2009 up to slightly over 3m. Germans will receive €2.5K if they buy a new car, or a car no older than one year that was registered to a dealer or auto manufacturer – German lawmakers are sensitive to the shenanigans of automakers who increase their sales statistics by registering the car in their name or the name of the dealer. The clunker must be at least nine years old and must be scrapped.
The idea is not new. It was first launched in France, where people get €1K if they scrap a car that is at least 10 years old and buy a new one. Austria already announced a similar one. Austria pays €1.5K for scrapped cars older than 13 years. It is to be expected that most of Europe will jump on the clunker culling bandwagon, each with different conditions. The German program is not without its critics.
General Motors hasn’t made money on its core auto business since 2004 – and did nothing. Same cars, same talk, same mismanagement. GM is in the government’s intensive care, hangs on a the tax payer’s money drip, and still hasn’t changed.
Contrast that to Toyota. Toyota will announce its first operating loss in its history – approx $1.6b, less than GM’s monthly cash burn – and Toyota went to battle stations months before the announcement.
Toyota does everything GM failed to do. They changed the management. Akio Toyoda, grandson of the founder, will take over as president. Even before he’s officially taking the job, Toyota “appears ready to overhaul its entire operations, from development to production to its sales network,” the Nikkei (sub) reports. Nothing is sacred. Plants are idled worldwide. Output is slashed. A few days ago, the company held a meeting in Nagoya that was attended by 1,000 representatives from Toyota dealerships across the country. Toyoda made it clear that he would not hesitate to drastically revise the firm’s domestic sales structure. And that’s just the beginning. More drastic moves are afoot.
For months, TTAC followed the increasingly desperate attempts of Ford to sell Volvo to the highest, and, as time went on, to any bidder. We reported that Ford’s Volvo joint venture in China, Changan, along with the Indian company Mahindra and Mahindra were in talks about Volvo. Which led to nothing. We reported that China’s Geely was looking at buying Volvo. Which led to nothing. We reported that Daimler isn’t interested in Volvo, and neither is BMW. Everybody in the auto business knows that Volvo is for sale. Everybody, except Ford. For a long time, everything was denied in Dearborn. Last December, Mulally raised Ford’s skirt a little bit for a peek at the no longer very private parts and said that Ford “is considering strategic options.” Whatever those may be. Now, after there is not a soul left that doesn’t know that Volvo is for sale, Bloomberg reports that Volvo is for sale:
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Definitely infrequent for a few weeks while I’m in Europe, hunting the elusive Euro: An overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. WAS is being filed from Berlin – when I’m in Berlin.
Idle chatter: More and more drivers of Japanese cars will have their rides die on them at an intersection, only to miraculously re-start once they mash the pedal. “Japanese carmakers have been equipping more and more of their passenger cars with a function that automatically kills the engine when the vehicle is stationary,” the Nikkei (sub) writes. Mazda aims to make the idling stop function available with some configurations of its fully remodeled Axela to be launched this summer. Toyota started offering a newly developed idling stop system on some of its Crown Comfort sedans in August. Toyota plans to install the system in a wider range of its passenger cars in the future, with a focus on Europe. Mitsubishi aims to offer some of its European model Colt cars with an idling stop system starting this year.
Ready, set, fire: Toyota plans to reduce its full-time work forces in North America and the U.K., by more than 1,000 jobs, the Nikkei (sub) says. The move is unprecedented for the automaker, which has protected full-time jobs even in tough times. A rare exception was in 1950, when it let go roughly 1,600 workers in Japan through early retirement programs. Toyota employs nearly 30,000 in North America, mainly at seven assembly plants, and about 5,000 in the U.K., where it has one assembly facility. The scope of the job reductions there will likely be finalized as early as this month. Toyota is considering pay cuts as well.
Nissan joins club of lost profits: Nissan joins other Japanese car makers such as Toyotay and will most likely ost a group operating loss of more than 100 billion yen for the year ending March 31, its first dip into the red since fiscal 1994, the Nikkei (sub) says. Depending on car sales for the January-March quarter, the loss could even swell to around 200 billion yen. The automaker logged an operating profit of 790.8 billion yen for the year ended March 2008. Sinc January, “the situation has grown more dire each day,” a company official says. Depressed demand alone will eat into operating profit by more than 200 billion yen. In addition, the yen’s appreciation against the dollar, the euro and emerging-market currencies is seen dragging down the result by some 100 billion yen.
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Definitely infrequent for a few weeks while I’m in Europe, hunting the elusive Euro: An overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. WAS is being filed from Berlin – when I’m in Berlin.
Alliances ahead: The not yet wrapped-up tie-up between Fiat and Chrysler “may spur Japanese automakers to look into alliances of their own,” the Nikkei (sub) writes. Already, Nissan and Chrysler produce each other’s vehicles on an OEM basis, Suzuki teams with Fiat in environmental technologies. “While these two Japanese firms may need to rethink their strategies, the Fiat-Chrysler alliance could have broader implications,” says the Nikkei: “Budgetary constraints may force Japanese carmakers to focus on their strengths while striking partnerships in other areas. Foreign rivals are said to be looking for Japanese partners for the technologies needed to make fuel-efficient vehicles.” The Nikkei speculates that this could be”setting the stage for an industry reorganization involving domestic and foreign carmakers, including such midtier players as Suzuki, Mazda and Mitsubishi.”
Japanese carmakers have hat in hand: Mazda has appealed to the Japanese government for financial assistance to cover roughly 10,000 employees’ wages at two domestic plants where it has scaled back production, says the Nikkei (sub.) Mazda will pay 80 percent of the basic wages while output is suspended. The government subsidies are to cover a portion of these salaries. Mitsubishi has already filed for such aid, Nissan plans to do same soon.
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