A – due to worldwide holiday inertia – very short overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. Until Jan 4, 2009, WAS is being filed from Tokyo.

Hyundai sees trouble ahead: Hyundai’s Vice Chairman Choi Jae Kook gave employees an uplifting New Year’s speech, writes Bloomberg. Choi said, Hyundai expects global industrywide vehicle sales to fall at least 7.7 percent next year. Sales may fall below 60 million from an expected total of about 65 million this year, “Next year will be a critical time for all automakers as there could be a big industrywide shake-up” amid slowing sales and overcapacity, Choi said. Global industry capacity stands at about 90 million vehicles a year, Choi said. That is an untenable capacity utilization of 66 percent. Hyundai and Kia have a combined annual capacity of 5.3m vehicles. According to the Chinese news agency Xinhua, Hyundai’s “total global sales in 2008 reached 4.8 million vehicles, down from 3.96 million units in the previous year.” Of course, this doesn’t make any sense, but other news outlets print it anyway.
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It would be everybody’s dream come true: A car running on nothing else than sunshine. Well, not everybody’s dream maybe. In Saudi Arabia, they have a lot of sunshine, but it doesn’t fit in tankers. “Toyota Motor Corp. is secretly developing a vehicle that will be powered solely by solar energy in an effort to turn around its struggling business with a futuristic ecological car,” reports AP via Yahoo News. AP says, Toyota is working on an electric vehicle that will get some of its power from solar cells on the vehicle, and that can be recharged with electricity generated from solar panels on the roofs of homes. As a next step, says AP, “the automaker later hopes to develop a model totally powered by solar cells on the vehicle.” Sounds unbelievable? AP says they have it on good authority.
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In Japan, a privacy rights group demands the take-down of Google’s Street View, after couples entering love hotels, or men urinating outdoors found a permanent home on Google’s servers. The Japanese group now found another ally: Porsche, or rather Porsche’s test drivers. They were caught by Google’s Street View car with the pants of some prototypes down. The invasion of Porsche’s privacy was spotted by a contributor to the Garage419 blog. In anticipation of his next vacation, he had googled the Mount Evans Toll Road.
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A short overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. Until Jan 4, 2009, WAS will be filed from Tokyo.

December possibly below 10m. Edmunds.com predicts the annually adjusted sales rate of light vehicles in the U.S. to come in at 9.8 million for December. J.D. Power and Associates now expects 10 million. The rate was 10.3 million in November. Sales results will be announced Monday, Jan. 5.

China expects 9.4m units for 2009: China’s total vehicle sales are expected to reach 9.41 million units for the full year of 2009, according to a State Information Center’s forecast, says Gasgoo. China’s GDP growth next year is expected to remain above 8 percent and its car market should see similar growth, says the forecast. Something is screwy about those numbers. January through November, China’s total vehicle sales were 8.63m. December is usually a strong month in China. The end of year number for 2008 (which is not out yet) is expected to be in the low 9m. If that’s true, then the forecast would not reflect increases in-line with expected GDP growth.
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When the clock strikes 12 tonight and the year ends, Americans will most likely have bought 13.1m light vehicles. That according to Erich Merkle of Crowe Horwath LLP, the man everybody seems to turn to when it comes to counting units.

Next year will be much worse.

The first quarter of 2009 will be an atrocity. “Merkle expects that the industry’s seasonally adjusted annual rate will be 10.5 million units, an abysmal rate that would match that of the fourth quarter of 2008,” says Automotive News (sub.)

By summer, Merkle sees the recession coming to its end. “His forecast: an annual sales rate of 11 million units in the first half, and 13.5 million to 14 million units in the second,” says Automotive News. For the coming year, Merkle reckons 12.8m units will sold in the U.S.

Detroit thinks, Merkle is an optimist.
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For the last time this year, a short overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. Until Jan 4, 2009, WAS will be filed from Tokyo.

Toyota has the biggest: Bruises and all, Toyota still stands proud. ToMoCo still has “the highest market capitalization among firms listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of the last trading day of 2008, even though its market value tumbled by more than half in the year,” reports a relieved Nikkei (sub.) The automaker’s market cap is 10.01 trillion yen ($111,110,999,987.77 at today’s rate,) down 54 percent from the end of 2007. The overall market, as measured by the Nikkei Stock Average closed at 8,859 on Tuesday, down 42 percent from a year earlier. GM, Ford, and Chrysler on the other hand – don’t even mention it.

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As the video proves beyond the shadow of a doubt, parallel parking is a cinch. For those who nonetheless feel challenged by the maneuver, and view it as scarier than crossing the 38^th parallel, Ford has a cure: Ford plans to offer two Lincoln models in 2009 that can park themselves, Marketwatch reports. Parallel parking will get as boring as pushing a button. The miracles will be on display at the Detroit Auto Show. The parallel parking robot will be an option on the Lincoln MKS sedan and MKT CUV for the 2009 model year. For the TTAC B&B, this news is a yawner, as automatic parallel parking attendants were introduced by Toyota in their Prius as far back as 2004, followed by Lexus, BMW, the VW Touran, and possibly others.

Wendelin Wiedeking, chief of a bank with attached sheet-metal fabrication named Porsche, used the quiet time between the holidays to sit down and pen a letter to all employees. He had to get it off his chest. Usually, this is the time for well wishes and brave forecasts. This time, it’s different. At least at Porsche. Even the most dopamine-saturated Porsche employee will be deeply depressed after reading Wiedekings new year letter. Sales of Valium and harder drugs, such as Schnapps, probably went through the roof in Zuffenhausen after the letter was opened. Automobilwoche (sub) obtained a copy of the inspirational message.

“Don’t let the high profitability of our company fool you. Dark clouds cover the skies. Due to the crisis in the financial markets, we are in a recession which we had not seen for many decades.” So far, so bad. Everybody who can read or watch TV knows that by now.

The missive continues with the usual yadda yadda of all auto makers being in a deep sales slump. Aber Achtung! Even Porsche, the company that could make more profits than sales, suddenly is not immune: “Despite being better prepared than most of the competition, we will not remain unscathed by the drops in demand.” Uh-oh.  “Reduction in demand” usually is a precursor for “reduction in jobs.” As Wiedeking is looking ahead, the wisdom of building a Cayenne becomes as clear as it possibly can get:

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In their never-ending quest for excellence, the U.S. auto industry is number one again. The auto sector has been voted “the most financially troubled industry in the United States next year,” writes Reuters.

Last year’s top dog was homebuilding, which was bestowed the coveted title of “Most troubled industry for 2008.” For 2009, that crown goes to the autos.

The auto industry received top honors as the result of a survey by the Turnaround Management Association, taken during the first two weeks of December.

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Bankrupt United States car parts maker Delphi has decided to temporarily close a plant in China’s Suzhou, the Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post (sub) reports. The factory west of Shanghai makes compressors for General Motors Corp. Delphi had been spun off from GM, as Visteon was from Ford, and Denso from Toyota. All with the (at least official) idea to supply other automakers of the world as well.

Unfortunately, it didn’t work out that way for the Suzhou plant: “The sudden and unprecedented decline in car sales globally has resulted in our only customer, General Motors North America, announcing plant closures and plant stoppages,” the South China Morning Post quoted from a statement by Delphi. “Unfortunately our only customer in 2009 is GMNA, and this has placed the Suzhou compressor plant in a very dangerous position,” the document continues.
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A short overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. For the next two weeks, WAS will be filed from Tokyo

Doh! Several automakers in China reduced or suspended the production of some vehicles. They already regret it, reports Gasgoo. Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen halted the Citroen production line. Now, dealers are out of stock on the C-Elysee. Many editions of the C-Quatre model are also nearly sold out. FAW started a two-week overhaul of its equipment. As a result the supply of its Besturn model is affected. Gasgoo: “Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Auto, FAW VW and other automakers have decided to speed up the overhaul of the idled production lines and resume their operation for more output to meet the market demands.” Spending a lot of time writing production plans, and the customers simply ignore them.

Honda up. In China: Honda sold 45,090 vehicles in China during November, up 8.7 percent from the same month last year. Sales from January to November rose 18% to 421,060 vehicles from 356,730 in the same period last year, the Nikkei (sub) writes.

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A short overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. For the next two weeks, WAS will be filed from Tokyo.

GMAC to announce real soon now. GMAC “expects to soon announce the results of a debt exchange offer that is key to North America’s largest auto finance company’s capital levels,” says Reuters, citing a GMAC spokesperson. The successful swap is crucial for GMAC to become a bank, and to get under the TARP. The debt swap deadline expired Friday as planned, spokeswoman Gina Proia said, adding that the company expects to put out the results in “the near term.” Sounds like Farago’s Option A.

Charge! Carmakers worldwide are turning into Energizer bunnies, and enact plan B as in batteries. Nissan and NEC will invest 100 billion yen or more to manufacture enough large-capacity lithium ion batteries to equip a total of around 200,000 electric and hybrid vehicles a year in 2011 or later, The Nikkei (sub) writes. Honda and GS Yuasa Corp. plan to construct a factory in Kyoto for  lithium ion batteries. Toyota and Panasonic are working on a joint-venture mass production of lithium ion batteries at a Shizuoka factory in 2009. Mitsubishi will start manufacturing lithium ion batteries in partnership with GS Yuasa. Volkswagen plans to develop automobile lithium ion batteries with Sanyo.

Getting real about EV: Taking the contrarian view, Bosch chief Bernd Bohr borrowed a line from Greenspan and cautioned against “irrational exuberance” when it comes to electric vehicles. “We should not tell the consumer that there will be an electrical vehicle in 2010 which is affordable and meets market demands” he said according to Automobilwoche (sub.) He expects small production runs before 2015, “but all will be heavily subsidized, either by the government or by companies that sell below cost.” Bohr figures, 80m units will be built worldwide in 2015. Of those, only 2.5m to 3m will be hybrids, and only 800K pure plug-ins.

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A short overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. For the next two weeks, WAS will be filed from Tokyo.

Good news! Nothing, absolutely nothing newsworthy and car related happened while you slept. Europe is officially closed as of a week ago. Japan turned the key last Friday evening. Even the Chinese car industry took advantage of the fact that all the expats of the joint ventures are home with mother-in-law and apple pie – and did nothing.

What’s left to report? That in Japan “domestic prices for used cars are declining due to shrinking exports to such destinations as the vital Russian market,” as the Nikkei‘s only car story of the day is? That a company in Singapore bought a taxi company in Beijing, as Gasgoo has it? That BMW’s Mini brand “aims to grow next year in albeit deteriorating market conditions,” as Reuters reports? That Oman Air appoints GM customer service? Or that Eon Musk [sic] is featured in “a series of profiles on prominent business leaders in the Bay Area who are managing their way through the severe economic downturn,” which the SF Chronicle launched as a sign of utter desperation?

The only newsworthy story would be that Honda was rescued by a Mexican for a dollar. But that’s against TTAC editorial policy, and you know the story already anyway. Can’t miss it. It runs unopposed. These days, no news is good news. Enjoy it. Or go back to bed.

Imagine your sell someone a house. It’s hard to imagine, I know, but humor me. You settle on a million. You sign. Papers are shuffled, titles researched. Three months later, at the closing, you get a check for $780K. Imagine there’s nothing you can do. Your lawyers are shrugging their shoulders. $220K poof, gone. The same happens every day in international trade. Welcome to the strange world of world currencies. You sell something in Euro, Yen, Won or Rupees. You ask: “How much is that in real money?” And a few days later, it’s all changed. Such is the life of a global automaker.

A short overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. For the next two weeks, WAS will be filed from Tokyo.

Japanese car sales down 30 percent: Japan is looking at “the worst December on record for auto sales,” the Nikkei (sub) writes. Only 161K autos (excluding minicars) were registered by Thursday evening. Unless a miracle happened on Friday, Japanese “sales of new cars are on track to drop almost 30 percent in December,” says the Nikkei. Sales dropped 5 percent in September, 13 percent in October, and 27 percent in November. For all of 2008, Japanese auto sales are expected to come in 7 percent lower. That would be the fifth consecutive yearly decline of the Japanese domestic auto market.

Fuji Heavy and Toyota getting cozier. Fuji Heavy, manufacturer of the Subaru, plans to join up with Toyota in the development of electric vehicles, Fuji Heavy President Ikuo Mori told The Nikkei (sub.) Fuji Heavy’s prototype electric vehicle is powered by a lithium ion battery from an alliance of Nissan Motor and NEC. They want to broaden their base of battery suppliers, and the partnership between Toyota and Panasonic would be among possible choices. Toyota holds a 16.5 percent stake in Fuji Heavy.

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