According to the National Post. the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 restricts Americans from importing alternative fuels if making them generates more greenhouse gases than conventional refining. That would certainly seem to apply to fuel from Alberta's tar sands (a.k.a. "oil sands"). To make the change to petroleum, the Canadian bitumen must be mechanically mined, then intensely heated. Yes, well, Canadian Ambassador Michael Wilson (currently blamed for the NAFTA leaks in the Obama-Clinton race) argues that the Act shouldn't include Alberta's million barrels a day output. In a letter to US officials, Mr. Wilson warned that compromising the tar sands– a key supply of oil to U.S. naval fleets– might have "unintended consequences" for both countries. Meanwhile, after five days of record oil prices, gas prices have risen to $5.20 a gallon in California and even £5 a gallon (110.9p per litre) on UK motorways.

Several of the original Seven Deadly Sins– Pride, Wrath, Lust, Gluttony, Envy, Sloth and Greed– have enhanced automobile sales and pistonhead pleasure. But Monsignor Gianfranco Girotti, the Pope's BFF and the head of the Apostolic Penitentiary (uh-oh) reveals that these "sins of yesteryear'' have a "rather individualistic dimension.'' The Church's seven new deadly sins are intended to make worshippers realize that their poor decisions also do unto others: Human Genetic Modification, Human Experimentation, Environmental Pollution, Social Injustice, Causing Poverty, Seeking Obscene Wealth and Drug Abuse. Did you know that every deadly sin has a traditional punishment? Pride leads to being broken on the wheel. Wrath leads to being dismembered alive. And so on. Hence, our QOTD: how can the car industry and pistonheads stay on the side of the angels with these new strictures, and what should happen if they don't?

According to the American Automobile Association [via The New York Times], the average nationwide price for diesel has set records 18 of the past 19 days. It's currently sitting at $3.83 a gallon. (New York, California, Pennsylvania and Vermont averaged over $4 a gallon.)  The effects are being felt throughout industry. On the positive side, trucking companies are buying more fuel-efficient equipment, using electronic devices to slow driving speeds and installing auxiliary power units so truckers can sleep in their cabs without idling their rig's engine. Larger companies are looking to hybrid diesel-electric powerplants and better aerodynamics for fuel savings. On the negative side, paying for the new equipment could lead to layoffs. Smaller trucking firms and independents are putting off maintenance and generally struggling to make ends meet. “It’s killing us,” said Chad Beachler, co-owner of nine-truck Beachler Trucking. “Every day, I come in here and wonder if I have enough money to buy fuel.” 

Crude oil futures surged to $108.21 a barrel today, the highest since trading began in 1983. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Dow averages, gold, platinum and other metals all dropped. Call it speculation, but with surging demand in China, investors currently view rising oil futures as a safer bet than anything else on Wall Street these days. "The grab for hard assets is on due to the lack of confidence in the rest of the markets at the moment." said John Kilduff, senior VP of energy at MF Global Ltd. in New York. Houston investment banker Matt Simmons sees prices heading to $120, "in the short term." Simmons, also known for Twilight in the Desert— his inductive analysis of Saudi oil fields– says, "I'm one of the few people who's not surprised to see crude at $107. I still think it's a bargain." Still, others worry about a ceiling. "The perception in the financial community is that the oil market is the one safe harbor," said Rick Mueller, director of oil practice at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. "The speculation that's moving oil higher will eventually undercut some of the safety they seek. As prices rise, the economy will weaken and eventually hit demand." Gas prices? Not so much.

Daniel Yergin is the Pulitzer-winning oil historian/author of The Prize, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) and a steadfast energy optimist. Peakist wags at The Oil Drum have defined a "yergin" as CERA's predicted long-term oil index price of $38/bbl. Oil prices currently hover around 2.7 yergins, but Yergin and CERA still carry a lot of weight in the energy consulting biz. US News & World Report's "Beyond the Barrel" blogs that Yergin now sees renewable energy as a serious player in energy markets. Speaking at the Washington International Renewable Energy Conference, Yergin told attendees, "We are going through a period of what I call the 'great bubbling,' a high degree of innovation all across the energy spectrum… This is boosting the competitiveness of renewables and efficiency, and is also evident in terms of conventional energy." CERA forecasts that so-called clean power could supply between seven and 16 percent of the world's electric needs by 2030. That's a significantly greater percentage than U.S. government forecasts of 4.2 percent (which blithely include ethanol as clean energy). Meanwhile, gas prices continue to escalate. The AP reports they've ascended by near-as-dammit a dime in the last two weeks.

Automotive battery technology is getting better, but will it be ready to meet the growing demand for alternatives to gasoline and diesel fuel? The Economist reports that the vehicle battery market will soon be worth $2.3b. At the moment, lithium-ion is the go-to technology. While lithium is a light, relatively inexpensive metal that maintains charge capacity well, lithium batteries can overheat and explode. Battery developers are experimenting with a variety of materials and blends for the positive electrode: cobalt oxide, manganese-nickel-cobalt, nickel-cobalt-aluminum oxide, and iron phosphate doped with aluminum, niobium and zirconium. As demand soars, expectations mount. General Motors, for one, needs a safe, dependable Li-ion battery for their Volt plug-in hybrid. And they need it now– if they're going to meet the [most recent] late 2010 deadline. "It's either going to be a tremendous victory, or a  terrible defeat," says James George, a battery expert based in New Hampshire. The clock is ticking.

Writing in the New Scientist, Carey W. King and Michael E. Webber of The University of Texas at Austin compare the amount of water used for petroleum refining vs. electricity generation. King and Webber found that electricity generation "consumed" or evaporated three times more water than gas production. During electricity generation. seventeen times more water is "withdrawn", used as coolant and returned to its source. "I wouldn't sound the alarm that this is going to ruin the day," says King, "But looking into the future, this is something we should take into account." King advises powerplants to switch to more expensive dry (forced air) cooling. Alternatively, "If we use only wind or solar energy, water use would be essentially zero." Where will we get the energy to build all those turbines and panels? Fossil fuels, of course.

At the International Renewable Energy Center, President Bush was shown a modified plug-in hybrid Toyota Prius and a Mack truck with a biodiesel-friendly Volvo engine. According to The Detroit News, Bush sang the body politic electric. "We want our city people driving not on gasoline but on electricity. And the goal, the short-term goal, is to have vehicles that are capable of driving the first 40 miles on electricity." (Not coincidentally, 40 miles is the projected EV range of the Chevy Volt.) While the Prez signed an energy bill mandating 36b gallons of ethanol by 2022, he's refused to fund advanced battery research (chump change at $500m over five years). "We've got to get off oil," the former oilman pronounced. "Dependency on oil presents a real challenge to our economy." Yeah, but how about political dependency on subsidies?

Occasional Ferrari designer Pininfarina has unveiled a futuristic concept car that puts a motor at every wheel. According to EVWorld, the Sintesi (Italian for synthesis) is powered by Nuvera's Quadrivium (Latin for a small hydrogen fuel cell and electric motor driving each wheel, apparently). By breaking up the drive train into smaller pieces– a strategy its makers call "liquid" packaging– Pininfarina was free to sculpt an aggressively aerodynamic (i.e. lozenge-like) projectile around four occupants. From the side, the leading edge of the Sintesi's hood seems to channel a bit of muscle car. The coda tronca (cutoff tail) calls to mind a Starfleet shuttle craft. The interior is dominated by a translucent epoxy instrument panel. Though Andrea Pininfarina made all the right noises about his sponsor for the project, the Italian fashionista says his design firm plans to release their own electric vehicle in 2009. So there.

In inflation-adjusted terms, oil is at its historic peak. The 1980's price of $39.50 a barrel translates to $103.76 in today's money. Many analysts attribute these high oil prices to speculation and increasing demand. And yet the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries  (OPEC) have long fine-tuned their production output to micromanage world markets. So says the International Herald Tribune. The Trib reports that OPEC may forego their usual springtime production cut to spare the reeling US economy even higher oil prices. Deutsche Bank's chief energy economist says it's one of those PR-type deals. "They don't want to be blamed for a recession," claims Adam Sieminski. "That would be bad public relations." U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman is down with that. "It is important that the members of OPEC for their own sake carefully look at supply and demand." OPEC's choice, however, is between cutting production and maintaining the current output. For whatever geo-political/economic reason, increasing production seems to be off the table. Once again, it may be time for someone in Washington to pick-up the bat phone and call our good friends at the Saudi embassy… 

UPDATE: Reuters reports that OPEC has decided to keep oil output steady. That said, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi claims they’ve been pumping 9.2m barrels per day (bpd), already roughly 300k bpd above their OPEC target.

Carnegie Mellon University's National Robotics Engineering Center is proud to present (in that deep voice radio promo ad sort of way) Crusher. As you can see (especially if you're a professional weight guesser), it's a 6.5-ton, six-wheeled, armor-clad robot designed to eliminate 1998 American cars to protect Mexican car dealers. Crusher has no human operator (always a mistake in sci-fi flicks). Instead, it uses a program called UPI to defeat obstacles, advance through enemy defenses, wield weapons and (if UPI includes a couple of Asimov's three laws of robotics) protect human troops. As reported by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Crusher is a turbo-diesel/electric hybrid whose batteries power motors in each wheel. Individual wheel suspension allows Crusher to roll up to 26 mph over rough terrain, successfully traversing large ditches, man-made barriers or crappy used cars. In a recent demonstration at Fort Bliss, DARPA's Stephen Welby raved about the future Army recruiting star for career-challenged fans of monster truck jams. "To understand how fast it operated in this environment, you have to understand that we were bouncing around [in a vehicle following Crusher], and I could barely walk afterwards with pain in my kidneys." (One surmounts stones, the other causes them.) CMU's NREC director of acronyms Steve Di Antonio thinks the vehicle and software have potential applications in construction, farming and mining. We're waiting for its first rap video appearance and the inevitable stretch Crusher limo.

Americans grumbled but they paid $2.00, and then $3.00 a gallon gas. Economists who study such things say U.S. drivers in a growing economy simply endured those price spikes, spending less elsewhere rather than changing their driving habits. But now, according to The Wall Street Journal [sub], those same economists see a broadly-troubled economy in which everything from food to health care costs more. The shift in both perception and reality is finally forcing Americans to drive less, and even to take (gasp!) public transportation. To wit: domestic gasoline consumption declined by 1.1 percent in the past six weeks. Lehman Brothers analyst Adam Robinson calls the potential for a long term conservation effort by Americans, "a major structural change in the market." Peak Oilers call it, "demand destruction." The working poor call it "more of the same."

Whether in print or in their private thoughts, most Peak Oil believers grapple with the immediate effects of oil scarcity. They picture a scenario based on history or speculative fiction, refining their expectations as the real future reveals itself and like Kafka's ape, looking for a way out. In today's Falls Church News-Press, Tom Whipple postulates that increasingly precious liquid fuels will be allocated to aircraft and ships. Since cellulosic biofuels and hydrogen are not ready for prime time, he expects that our already available electric power grid will be the most likely ground transport fuel for the immediate future. But in Peak Oil prognostication, all solutions reveal even deeper problems. Electric cars may serve in a limited capacity, but will we have enough resources to actually build them? Will any but the very rich be able to afford them?

Having failed to go it alone, small electric vehicle (EV) companies are finally realizing that they need large, experienced partners to help with supply chains, mass production and distribution. Th!nk Global (previously and more accurately known as Th!nk Nordic) builds and sells tiny EVs in Norway. At the Cleantech Forum in San Fran, Chairman Jan-Olaf Willums dropped hints that Th!nk will join with a large automaker to build a larger EV, and extend their marketing to Europe and the US. Ford Motors is a possible partner. Ford bought Th!nk in 1999, developing much of Th!nk's practical technology, but sold out in 2003. As reported by greentechmedia.com , Willums appears realistic about Th!nk's potential. Asked by an interested Cleantech attendee if the Th!nk could be driven from Arizona to California, Willums admitted, "I think you are typically a noncustomer for us."

Canada's ZENN, Dynasty and Electrovaya make small, four-wheel, electric cars classified locally as Low-Speed Vehicles (LSVs). They mostly sell these zero emission machines to Americans as Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs). Though the 25 mph max speed NEVs must be approved at the local level, they are potentially legal on 35 mph roads in 40 US states. The Canadian EV makeers desperately want to sell their products in their home market. As The Toronto Star reports, both Transport Canada and Ontario's Ministry of Transportation restrict the sedate LSVs to "planned" areas like campuses and retirement communities; LSV owners are legally banned from taking their chances among Canada's mix of normal, fast and insanely fast traffic. While slower bicycles and scooters also use Canada's streets, officials are hung-up on the fact that the LSVs look like cars but don't have airbags, side-impact reinforcement or meet any crash-test standards. Makes sense, but is it sensible?