Check out GM’s complete video of the conference here.

Well, we’ve already been warned that GM’s 4Q cash burn and financial results will be worse than the just-released 3Q results; now we have another reason why. Even though GM has been averaging just over $4,000 per vehicle in incentives, a traditional Red-Toe-Tag sale has been planned for year’s end, reports Automotive News [sub]. As in years past, the answer lies in shoddy inventory management. GM’s Susan Docherty explains:

All of our efforts will be to sell down our remaining 2009 inventory. We’ll have a little bit of carryover of that into the first quarter of 2010, but the objective is to keep our inventory somewhere between 425,000 to 450,000 units. I’d rather have very slow, incremental movement up [in market share] than the peaks and valleys we saw all over 2008 and of course in the first six months of the 2009 calendar year

Wait, there were peaks to go along with all the valleys in 2009? More to the point, how does Docherty’s desire for organic growth square with the decision to spike sales at year’s end with as-yet non-specific financing and cash incentives? The real irony is that GM is having an easier than expected time moving its remaining 10,000 Pontiacs and 8,000 Saturns; The Red Tag event is for Chevrolet, Buick-GMC gets the “Holiday Event” and Cadillac will hold a “Seasons Best” sale. Non-stop incentives on “core brands,” goes against much of the “sell the product, not the deal” rhetoric coming out of GM post-bankruptcy. And unless holiday sales blow up, the profit-sapping incentives will help justify GM’s 4Q loss warnings. The turnaround still has yet to show itself.

The “Two-Mode” hybrid system jointly developed by GM, Chrysler, Daimler and BMW is turning out to be quite the albatross. Chrysler’s Two-mode Durango and Aspen were discontinued before Bob Nardelli had the chance to drive one to last year’s bailout hearings. GM’s hybrid Escalade has been dead in the water, and BMW and Mercedes have said that only their X5 and ML SUVs will receive the expensive, overly-complicated drivetrain. Now Mercedes is signaling even further ambivalence toward the technological dead-end by announcing [via Autoblog] that the ML450 Hybrid will be a lease-only option. The 21/24 MPG ML Hybrid will be available at $659 per month for 36 or $549 per month for 60 months. Since this is the only vehicle M-B will sell with the two-mode technology, the limited number of batteries needed was a major factor in driving the cost up. “We are offering this vehicle as lease only due to a limited supply of batteries available. We felt a lease only program offered the best option for customers,” say Mercedes spokesfolks. The real message: the billion-dollar Two-Mode development program has been a colossal waste.

Enthusiasts have been adamant that GM’s decision to sell a police-only version of its RWD global Lumina platform (Holden Statesman) creates a fantastic opportunity for GM to return the Impala to its RWD roots. Such a decision would seem to make sense from a business perspective as well, adding civilian sales volume to what otherwise would be a fleet-only platform. No such luck though. Bob Lutz tells Inside Line that the forthcoming Impala replacement (due in 2014) will be based on GM’s global FWD midsized architecture (Epsilon II). The rationale for this decision appears to be fuel efficiency: Lutz mentions the need to compete with the Ford Taurus’s efficiency achievements as a factor in the decision. By going FWD, GM also hopes to be able to shoehorn the two-mode hybrid system from the discontinued Vueick CUV into a future Impala. In addition to forgoing an opportunity to leverage the Caprice police special architecture, this decision also adds to GM’s epic midsize FWD sedan bloat. From the Malibu to the Buick LaCrosse and Regal, from Impala to the Cadillac XTS “flagship,” GM’s default decision seems to be to base all of its sedans on a single platform, making pricing and content differentiation an ongoing challenge to its product strategy. Vive le sameness!

According to GM’s 3rd Quarter financial results announcement:

GM plans to repay the United States, Canadian and Ontario government loans in quarterly installments from escrowed funds, beginning next month with an initial $1.2 billion payment to be made in December ($1.0 billion to the UST and $192 million to the EDC), followed by quarterly payments. Any escrowed funds available as of June 30, 2010 would be used to repay the UST and EDC loans unless the escrowed funds were extended one year by the UST. Any balance of funds would be released to GM after the repayment of the UST and EDC loans.

Though this sounds like positive news, don’t let it fool you. GM’s financials only acknowledge $6.7b in government debt, a sum that barely scratches the surface of the taxpayer “investment” in The General (let’s use $52b as a baseline). The escrow fund in question contains $13.6b of the final $30b GM was given as it exited bankruptcy. Having burned through nearly half of that princely sum, GM now plans on using at least part of the rest to pay off the “outstanding $6.7b.” The escrow account expires in June 2010, at which point whatever is left unpaid of the $6.7b will be returned to the government, and GM will keep the rest. GM will then declare victory and pretend like it has squared up with the tax paying public, when in fact the public will have merely paid itself back a paltry fraction of what GM actually owes. This “repayment” will then be dutifully reported without question by the mainstream media, and the stain of bailout will be symbolically lifted. Except, of course, it won’t. GM and the government are playing a classic shell game, taking advantage of the public’s inability to keep the billions straight. Shameful.

OnStar’s Privacy & Compliance Officer Jane Speelman has an “I can’t let you do that Dave” moment in a Fastlane webchat titled “Onstar Debunks Privacy Misconceptions.” Yikes!

We liked Fritz. We felt that Fritz had more energy and more drive and got the message that things had to change and was being groomed to be CEO and deserved a chance… He’s shown that he can manage. Whether he can fundamentally change the culture of the company is another matter.

Bloomberg’s fresh sound bite from former car czarlet Steve Rattner. Well, considering you left him in charge, Steve, he’d damn well better change the culture of the company. Otherwise it reflects just as badly on the restructuring task force as it does on GM, doesn’t it? Come to think of it, picking Fritz because he had “more drive” than Rick Wagoner wasn’t really a good setup for fundamental culture change, was it? You don’t hire Larry to move your piano because he’s “higher energy” than Moe. But it’s not Rattner’s fault: GM’s inability to change its culture comes from its inability to hire the professionals. Which means Ken “the pay czar” Feinberg and his ridiculous pay limits are really to blame.

(Read More…)

We weren’t the only outlet to note Volkswagen’s apparent 2010 production volume win over Toyota a few days ago. Not so fast, Toyota tells Automotive News [sub]. Volkswagen’s total included production by joint ventures in which it does not hold a majority stake, Toyota’s didn’t. On an apples-to-apples basis (with minority stake affiliates included) Toyota built 4.9m vehicles in the first three quarters of 2009, to Volkswagen’s 4.4m. And because Toyota cut so much production early this year, while VW rode the European (particularly the German) cash-for-clunker wave, Toyota will continue to gain ground over the rest of the year. And the gap could widen in 2010: VW should see a certain amount of downturn in its core German market now that the abwrackprämie has expired, while improvements in the US and Asian markets should help Toyota. Not that Toyota cares about being number one. “Toyota’s goal is to focus on the customer, so we’re not focused on being No. 1,” ooze the spokesfolks. Well thanks for correcting us anyway.

GM surprised more than a few observers when it announced it would build a police-only Caprice model, based on the global RWD Chevy Lumina/ Holden Statesman. “Why build a fleet-only model and miss out on some private volume?” we asked at the time. Well, it looks like Ford’s about to do the same thing. A presser announces the development of a “purpose-built Police Interceptor specially designed and engineered to replace the Ford Crown Victoria law enforcement vehicle lineup in 2011.” Given that time table, “all new” is at least partial exaggeration (as it so often is). And it’s possible that this was motivated in part by the cool reaction to news of a possible Taurus-based Interceptor. GM went to Australia for their police-duty RWD platform, might Ford do the same with a Falcon-based interceptor? Or is this the prelude to Panther 2.0? Or, as common sense seems to dictate, is the Interceptor “all new” simply because there’s just never been an Interceptor based on this Taurus before? If Ford is really engineering a dedicated fleet vehicle for US production with no civilian counterpart, they’re as crazy as GM is. D3 it is.

There’s no shortage of analysis hailing Ford’s last-man-standing status, but there’s plenty of buried truth that’s not being brought to light. For example, Ford’s version of Delphi, bankrupt spun-off supplier Visteon. The firm’s non-European and Asian operations have been in Chapter 11 bankruptcy since May, and according to Automotive News [sub], it’s running out of DIP financing. Ford financed the supplier’s first month in bankruptcy, after which Visteon began burning through cash it was holding as collateral for its borrowings. And now that money is set to run out in March, forcing the firm to go hunting for $150m in further DIP financing. Unsecured creditors are objecting, calling the move a power grab by senior, secured lenders who seem willing to lend more money in order to edge out unsecured claims. And while that battle rages on, other OEMs are bailing on Visteon. Chrysler will come up with some $31m to buy back its supply business from the weakened supplier, Nissan is buying its Visteon-run North American interior plants back for $11m, while GM shifted its Visteon business to competitors at a cost of $22m. Ford, Visteon’s biggest customer and former owner is making no such move to abandon its most crucial supplier. If DIP funding comes up short, or if more bumps appear in Visteon’s bankruptcy (or if things continue as normal… Visteon lost $38m last quarter), Ford will face the brunt of the fallout. And with $30b in debt, and no government escrow account to draw on, Ford won’t be able to help out Visteon the way GM rescued Delphi earlier this year.

Ever get the feeling that the car game is dealing with some malaise? Dieter Zetsche sure seems to. “The definition of luxury will be somewhat different,” Doctor Z tells the Wall Street Journal. “It will be fewer CO2 emissions and more modesty in appearance.” And this from the company that sells cars on the back of a brand dripping with immodesty and ostentation. But no matter, the decision has been made: Zetsche wants to chase what the WSJ terms “Americans’ growing interest in downsized models that offer upscale features and finishes.” Wait, growing interest? The MINI sells decently, but the A3 (fewer than 3k units sold year-to-date) and 1 Series (fewer than 10k units year-to-date) are hardly setting the luxury segment on fire. Damn the torpedoes, people want green modesty, and Zetsche’s going to give it to them with four compact models planned for the US sometime after 2011.

For sure, there will be another B-class, which will be pretty similar, address the same customer as the B-class today. The three other body styles clearly intend to target additional and different segments from the one that we can target today, including gender barriers.

Smaller, greener and more identity-politics-y. That sounds like just what the luxury market has been begging for! And we haven’t even started in on the cost-cutting yet.

(Read More…)

Think the new Z4 is a bloated boulevard cruiser unworthy of the roadster-implying Z badge? We’d tend to agree. Which is why we were chuffed to see renderings of a possible BMW 1 Series-based Z2 roadster in the most recent Auto Motor und Sport (print edition). Several Einser engines will be available say AM und S, up to and including the 306 hp 135i engine. BMW M division boss Kay Segler even hints that an M car based on the 1 series is in the works. This roadster seems like as good a variant as any for the treatment.

Were you looking forward to GM’s first post-bankruptcy financial report, set to be released on Monday? We sure were. Right up until we read that the earning statement won’t be compliant with a little something called Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Automotive News [sub] reports that GM will use so-called “managerial accounting,” (do we have an accountant in the house?) until Q1 2010 results are filed using SEC-approved “fresh start accounting.” The SEC is apparently aware that GM is still transitioning to the post-bankruptcy accounting system, and has reportedly approved GM’s timetable for compliance. Meanwhile, GM’s 3rd quarter results will be announced in two parts, for the period it was in bankruptcy (June 1- June 9) and after (June 10- September 30). GM’s spokesperson is kind enough to explain:

In some cases, it’s not comparable to do a year-to-year comparison. Anything with a cost component to it, won’t be comparable. For sales and revenue, it will be comparable. It’s going to be kind of complicated this time around. There’s no way around that. It’s not a standard situation.

Don’t you just hate it when that happens? You try and you try to be transparent, and then your financial results come out all unintelligible because it takes the better part of a year to switch accounting systems. No wonder Whitacre is downplaying talk of a Summer 2010 IPO.

You need to go to your toughest market. The state of California is the biggest nut to crack for Buick. Californians love their Toyotas, they love their luxury cars, their BMWs and their Priuses, Buick is not even on their radar screen. These people don’t know this Regal. Picking the L.A. Auto Show demonstrates some confidence we have in the product and in the brand.

So says GM’s Susan Docherty in the Detroit News. Of course, it also shows how screwed the Buick brand is. California on its own is one of the largest markets for cars in the world, and it’s also home to some of the most virulently anti-domestic-brand sentiment in the country. Which explains why Buick is trying to win over the Golden State with its first-ever imported model. But as Docherty says, “One car doesn’t transform a brand. You have to have a series of successes so one, plus one, plus one equals more than three.” Meanwhile, while Buick tries to convince Californians that they don’t actually want a Lexus, everyone who thought they knew and loved the Buick brand will just be confused.