Tesla Motors chairman Elon Musk plans to take the company public before the end of the year. Before you call your broker to get in on the ground floor, think twice. Blogging Stocks' Zac Bissonette advises prospective investors to "stay away!" He doesn't base this advice on any of Tesla's financials. In fact he says he hasn't seen a registration statement or prospectus. Instead, he's looking at the money that initial investors lost in the airline industry, the hundreds of startup automakers over the years, the internet bubble that went bust and the struggling satellite radio companies. He reminds us that "world-changing technologies often fail to lead to profits for the investors." And then he offers this last bit of advice: "If the Tesla IPO is a hot one and investors start dumping boring profitable companies to pile in, I say take the hint and run the other way." You have been warned.
Posts By: Frank Williams
GM Daewoo (GMDAT) builds cars in South Korea, and then sells them as a number of different brands around the world. In most markets they're rebadged as Chevrolets– in an attempt to make Chevy into GM's "global" brand (excluding the Corvette, which is a standalone brand in Europe). In South Korea, Daewoos are Daewoos. Blogging Stocks reports that GM is considering introducing the Chevrolet brand in Korea. If they do, what cars will they sell as Chevys? Do they change the "home team" GM Daewoo brand into an "import" brand? Do they introduce Daewoo-built models not currently sold as domestic models under the Chevrolet name? Or do they import cars built elsewhere to carry the brand? Who knows… maybe they'll introduce Korea to American full-sized pickups and finally have something to with that four-month inventory of Silverados they're sitting on.
American Axle's unionized workforce are set to ratify their new "would you rather face the firing squad or be hanged?" contract. The Detroit Free Press reports that locals who've already voted have agreed to the terms of the four-year agreement. While the media has focused on salary cuts, the bitter is in the fine print. The contract changes the guidelines for computing overtime from "the regular working day is eight hours and the regular working week is forty hours" to "the regular working week is forty hours." (Translation: the company can lengthen individual shifts up to the new, 40-hour limit without paying overtime.) The accord removes five holidays over the course of the contract, and cuts the bonuses for those that remain. It lowers the limit on max vacation time accrued by the most senior workers, from 200 to 160 hours (those who already have between 160 and 200 hours can retain what they have, but not increase it).The contract reduced cost of living increases, which will now be made in lump-sum payments instead of hourly increases. The agreement cuts shift premiums drastically, to less than $1 per hour. So that's what 11 weeks on the picket line gets you these days.
[Click here for a PDF showing some of the changes from the old contract to the new.]
Chrysler's "Refuel America" promotion guarantees $2.99/gallon gas, diesel or E85 for three years. The deal was originally set to expire on June 2. The Detroit News announces that the struggling automaker's extending the offer through July 7. It sure sounds like a good deal… you get a gas card that's linked to your Visa or MasterCard credit card (no debit cards). When you buy gas, your card is billed at $2.99/gallon and Chrysler pays the rest – within certain limits. The cap is capped at the amount of fuel needed to go 12K miles based on the EPA combined mileage for your vehicle. If you try to use your gas/E85 card to buy diesel, or have a diesel card and try to buy gas/E85, you're charged "full pump price plus a $2 service fee per transaction." If gas drops below $2.99, you'll be charged at the lower price BUT the purchase will count against your annual allotment. Once you exceed your annual allotment, you'll be charged the full price until the next year's allotment kicks in– but if you don't use all of this years' allotment, the remainder is forfeited when the new allotment is activated. Oh, and if you follow all the rules and buy a Dodge Durango (the thirstiest car Chrysler sells excluding the excluded SRT models and Dodge Viper), you'll save around $600 a year, depending on local gas prices. Oh, did I mention you may have to forfeit other, more valuable incentives to qualify? Someone, somewhere is laughing.
PistonHeads reports police in Manchester have raise their surveillance efforts in the world's most surveilled country to the next level. They're recording information on every one of the 600k cars that enter the city on a daily basis. When you drive into Manchester on one of twelve major routes, Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) cameras record your car's registration and color and the time of entry. The system automatically checks your information against national databases to see what heinous crime someone driving your car may have committed. The police and/or various government agencies store the information for five years "to fight terrorism, crime and car theft." The UK has the same system in place in The City (London's financial district) following a 1993 terrorist attack in Bishopsgate. Let the "if you haven't done anything wrong you have nothing to worry about" arguments begin.
United Auto Workers (UAW) at American Axle are set to ratify vote on their new contract. You know– the one that cuts their wages from about $28/hour to $14.35-18.50 per hour after an 11-week strike. The one where UAW Prez Big Ron Gettelfinger said he didn't want GM's involvement. Yeah… that one. The Detroit Free Press reports a lot of the workers are unhappy with the proposed settlement. However, most feel they don't have a choice (as if). For its part AA management is hoping most UAW members will opt for buyouts or early retirement; it would be a shame to waste the extra $18m GM kicked in at the last minute to sweeten the pot (bringing their "involvement" ito $218m). Where GM wll get the money is anyone's guess. Perhaps those money trees at RenCen are producing a bumper crop this year. And well they should– they're being fertilized with the highest-quality corporate bullshit in the world. Just sayin'.
Those are poster texmin’s thoughts on AutoblogGreen’s report on the latest update from our friends at Tesla Motors. (BTW Daryl, we seem to have been inadvertently omitted from your email list.) The letter reveals Tesla’s revised production schedule (surprise!): a 600-car 2008 model run by April 2009, followed by the 2009 models. Reader Chris H isn’t impressed. “Three cars in 9 weeks…. Three weeks to build one car? At this rate it will take over five years just to get through the Founders Series and the Signature 100.” In other news, Tesla’s testing a new electronics module in preparation for the yet-to-see-daylight one-speed gearbox; both will be a “running production change.” The standard 3 year/36k mile warranty can now be extended to 4 years/50k miles– at a price (the 2008 Roadster Club members get free extended coverage). Tesla Roadster owners living more than 100 miles from a service center no longer have to pay $8k up front to cover service transportation. They just pay for as few (or as many) trips as needed. By this time next year, Tesla plans on having stores in L.A. (done), Menlo Park New Jersey, New York, Chicago, Miami and Seattle. And finally, if you want a 2009 Roadster, the base price has risen from $98k to $109. To which leroy replied, “Save yourself $90,000 and just buy a used Lotus Elise. 90 grand will buy a hell of a lot of gasoline.”
Union problems, soaring gas prices and a faltering economy made April the worst month for new vehicle sales since 1995. Continued production in the face of diminished demand helped maintain the manufacturer's cash flow, but it lead to the inevitable: swollen inventories. In other words, even as U.S. new car sales go down the toilet, the toilet's backing-up. Fix the number 60 in your mind (the ideal number of days' supply for a new vehicle on a dealer's lot) and take a look at what's going down at your local dealer's lot.
Good luck buying an Audi R8. There's an 18-month– or longer– waiting list. Or you could pay dealers demanding a $50 – $80k price premium. Hence the reason that Automotive News' [sub] industry-wide list of factory incentives set off my WTF alarm. As usual, a handful of Audi finance deals are listed under the VW heading. Until July 2, Audi dealers are offering the Audi A3, RS4 and S4 with 2.9 percent financing (qualified buyers, first born as collateral, etc.). Ingolstadt's American minions are also offering 0.9 – 2.9 percent financing on A4s. And well-heeled enthusiasts can pick-up an $109k (six-speed, base) Audi R8 with 5.34 – 5.85 percent financing. AN didn't list any specifics: length of financing, down payments or whether it was a purchase or lease. And Audi's web site doesn't list the deal with their other "special offers." So now I'm wondering: if they're in such short supply and such high demand, why would Audi be offering finance deals? And would that finance rate really sway someone shopping the $100k+ market to buy an R8 over a Porsche 911 Turbo?
When we started the Tesla Birth Watch last August, we said "we'll be following this developing story as it develops." Then, in January, we stated "we're obliged to quit carping under this title when one- count it ONE- Roadster enters its owner's climate-controlled garage." Well, it's happened. After several false starts, revised delivery dates and lots of PR tap dancing, the first Tesla is in the hands of a paying customer. (We know Tesla CEO Elon Musk got his Roadster three months ago, and supposedly paid full price for the honor, but we don't see that as a "real" delivery.) According to Tesla Comms Veep Darryl Siry, "Car #3 was delivered to someone (who prefers not to be named) who is not associated with the company on a day to day basis, but whose investment fund put money into Tesla very early." Of course, RF is grumbling, asking for independent verification of Siry's assertion. But I've convinced him it's time to call it a day. The Tesla Birth Watch is officially over. The Tesla Death Watch begins.
On April 17, United Auto Workers (UAW) union members at GM's Delta Township plant walked out in a dispute over their local contract (two-tier terms and conditions). The action shut down production of two of GM's most popular products: the GMC Acadia and Buick Enclave (Saturn Outlook production also halted). After almost a month spent working its way through a dwindling dealer inventory, the Detroit News reports GM turned up the heat on Delta's striking workers. At midnight Wednesday, GM canceled their medical and life insurance benefits. As of 4:30 am today, the Local's web site is reporting a tentative agreement. (The site instructs picketers to continue "until further notice.") Whether GM will apply the same pressure at the Fairfax plant in Kansas– where Malibu production was halted by a similar strike– is unknown. 'Bu production continues at the Orion plant in Michigan, and there's a 34-day inventory on the lots. Still, between the strikes at American Axle and Alliance Interiors and negotiating the local contracts, GM's hardening line on "local disruptions" is both understandable and predictable. But will the UAW now toughen theirs? Count on it.
AutoblogGreen reports that Brazil is launching a "diplomatic offensive" to promote its sugarcane ethanol exports to the EU, culminating at this November's World Biofuel Summit in São Paulo. Underlying the push: a Brazilian ethanol glut that American corn farmers have sworn their lives to keep on the other side of the border (and yes, we do have a border). Speaking to the Europeans, Brazil's Director of Energy tried to contrast Brazilian sugar-based ethanol and American corn-based ethanol. André Caranha Correa arguies that his countries product does not impact foodstocks. Of course, Brazilian ethanol does present a number of less-than-feel-good challenges, from widespread ecological impacts to the near-slave labor conditions of workers in the sugar industry. But hey, what else are charm offensives for?
Conventional wisdom says never buy a car the first year it's on the market, whether it's a brand new model or a redesign of an existing one. TrueDelta's latest quarterly results say… it depends from whence cometh the car. The 2008 Honda Accord, Nissan Rogue and Mercedes C-Class, for example, all boast a better than average repair rate. On the other hand, GM. Last year, the GMC Acadia and Saturn's Aura and Outlook showed higher than normal repair rates. So far this model year, they're lower than average rates. The cycle is repeating for the 2008 Cadillac CTS (2.5 times the average repair rate) and Saturn Vue (1.5 times the average). TrueDelta developer Michael Karesh sums it up thus: "For GM, rough launches appear to be the rule rather than the exception." So the next time GM CEO Rick Wagoner and Co. feel like mouthing-off about the "perception gap" supposed afflicting their narrow-minded non-customers, they should visit TrueDelta (and/or TTAC) for some cold, hard truth. if we don't say so ourself. Which we do.
Chrysler's finally seen the light. After years of building versions of everything they build to sell under every brand they sell, they've canceled the Chrysler version of the Dodge Journey CUV. Co-prez Jim Press stopped by the passive construction site to explain that "resources have been deployed to basically support" development of the small car to be manufactured by Nissan. "It's a segment we are not competing in now." (What was his first clue?) Bloomberg reports that this move means Chrysler will only be introducing three new models for the 2009 model year: the Journey, the Challenger and a redesigned Ram. That leaves Chrysler looking toward the magic year 2010, when they hope to have their new compact ready to go along with new versions of the Grand Cherokee and Durango (no mention of the Aspen, though) and a redesigned Charger and 300. Will it be a case of too little, too late? We'll have to wait a couple of years to find out — if Chrysler lasts that long.
Ferraristi are set to get down on their knees and pray as the Prancing Horse has finally released pictures of their new California, The front mid-engined machine will debut (a French word) at the next Paris Auto Show. The +2 convertible features a folding hardtop and seven-speed dual clutch transmission. The horny Fornie's 4.2-liter V8 engine will hurl the aluminum-bodied GT to 60 mph in less than four seconds. Carbon-ceramic brakes should retard said insanity at will. [ED: At least until the damn thing breaks.] The Kalifornia's F1-Trac traction control system "has been further enhanced to suit the typical driving conditions expected for this new GT." Valet parking stand? Climate-controlled garage? Maranello's madmen are promising more details in advance of the show, 'cause they really need to build-up some hype for this new car in order to fill-up the order book before production. Not. [Hat tip to PistonHeads for the lead]

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