The New York Times has a story on car nut Fred Heiler and his son Tim. It seems that Tim wasn't quite living up to his potential in middle school– thanks to girls and video games. But his progeny's Cobra love led to a parental epiphany: "'O.K., bud,' I said in a weak moment, 'if you get on the honor roll and stay on throughout high school, we'll buy you a Cobra kit when you graduate.'" The incentive worked: "Indeed, he began to apply himself in school, and in a couple of marking periods we got a congratulatory note and an honor roll sticker with his report card…. Good grades became the norm all through high school. Tim graduated with honors in 2006. True to his word, Fred bought a Cobra kit from E.R.A. in Connecticut. Father and son built the car together in the garage. "With Fleetwood Mac or Green Day blasting, we'd chatter about car stuff, school or music while we worked, but at other times we'd proceed without speaking, anticipating each other's moves and handing each other the right tools at the right time." The two shade tree mechanics plan to attend a safe driving school together this summer. Cobra? Driving school? Sounds like a plan.

The Wall Street Journal reports that "Chrysler LLC is betting its new Dodge Ram pickup truck, coming this fall, can pull customers from rivals." Dodge is finally offering a crew cab version and is counting on it to for super-sized help. "I don't think there's any question that we can gain market share," said Ken Zangara, a Dodge dealer in Albuquerque, N.M. "The question is how big will the overall market be?" Yeah, that's the question alright! When even the dealers offer qualified optimism for a new product you know things are bad. Dodge has massive overcapacity in trucks with three factories poised to crank out over 600k trucks per year compared to 2007 sales of about 358k units (this year's numbers are even worse). Ram sales tumbled 24 percent so far in 2008, which means Chrysler has 1.5 truck factories too many. UPI and others report a massive glut of used trucks on the market which are both competing against new truck sales and killing trade-in values for potential new truck buyers. Year on year trade-in comparables are down 14 percent. A nose job and crew cab option are not going to lift Dodge out its permanent third wheel status. But not to worry, soon Nissan will get a version of the Ram to not sell. 

As fuel prices hit historic highs, small car safety once again takes center stage. Quoted in the Wall Street Journal, the Insurance Institute's president gets straight to the nub of the matter. "The tradeoff is still there," says Adrian Lund. "Large cars and small cars are both much better designed to protect occupants than 20 years ago, or 10 years ago. But if you look at the fatality rates today, we see the risk doubles for the smallest cars compared to a very large one." The WSJ's Joseph B. White points out that "small cars [that] are a lot safer than they used to be– as safe, by one measure, as midsize cars were a decade ago." Yes, well, a 20-year-old Honda beats the fuel economy pants off a brand new microcar. Which one is safer, and does it matter? (I wouldn't send my wife or daughter out on the mean streets in either.) Anyway, the scribe reprises the old argument that small cars can avoid crashes: "It's reasonable to think that a good driver in a small car could steer out of a situation that would cause a crash for someone in a slower-handling, heavier vehicle with a long stopping distance. But note the qualifier: a good driver."  

The Wall Street Journal [sub] reports: "The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand." Previously, the International Energy Agency had forecast an ever-increasing supply to match ever-increasing demand. Oops. The U.S. Energy Department's own forecasting shop, the Energy Information Administration, has long adhered to the same demand-driven scenario. Now, both agencies have been caught with their analytical pants down. While some blame oil speculators for rapidly rising fuel costs, most economists and oil analysts point to increasing world-wide demand combined with the difficulties of finding new oil and oil suppliers unwillingness to spend the money to find more of the stuff. Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box, Dr. Robert Hirsch, Management Information Services Senior Energy Advisor, fueled speculators' speculation. "The prices that we're paying at the pump today are, I think, going to be 'the good old days,' because others who watch this very closely forecast that we're going to be hitting $12 and $15 a gallon, and then, after that, when world oil production goes into decline, we're going to talk about rationing."

The harsh realities of a mature US automotive market are wrecking havoc on the plans and finances of all the players. The Wall Street Journal reports that 15 million units is about the best the industry can hope for in '08. That's back to the future, 1990s style. Even market share-gobbling Toyota senior executives admitted they have "about a full plant's worth of excess capacity in North America– not including the Tupelo plant due to open in 2010." Holy excess capital expenditures Batman! The master of production planning has hit the wall. Bottom line: the US is a stagnant, mature market where new cars are competing for replacement business, not growth. Meanwhile, more manufacturers are threatening to enter the US market. The Chinese and Indians (Tata) are chomping at the bit, and Alfa-Romeo has announced plans to return… soon. Analysts forecast a return to growth in the decade ahead. Still, clearly, not everyone's going to make it.

The Wall Street Journal [sub] reports Volvo's saying farväl to a third of the production workers at their last remaining Swedish factory. (The Belgian factory which makes Volvo's smaller vehicles is so far exempt from the cutbacks.) And no wonder. "Despite expansion in Russia and China, Volvo reported selling 22,000 fewer vehicles during the first quarter of this year compared with the same period a year ago." And there there's a sales mix shift to smaller, cheaper, less profitable vehicles and the weak U.S. dollar. It all adds up to a loss of "$151 million in the first quarter of this year, compared with a $94 million profit during the same quarter in 2007." Both are mouse nuts numbers in the Ford scheme of things, but Investor Kirk "The Lion of Las Vegas" Kerkorian's minion Jerome York recently opined that FoMoCo will probably jettison Volvo within 18 months. Ford says Volvo isn't for sale, forgetting to add "we constantly review the situation." Translation: yet.

Canada's Magna International rarely makes headlines these days, unlike bankrupt suppliers Delphi and Plastech, and strike-afflicted American Axle. But the Quiet Canadian blew past rope-a-doped Delphi into first place in the US auto parts market, as reported in Automotive News [via the Financial Post]. A bit over a year ago Magna lost out to Cerberus in the war for Chrysler– and says a little prayer of thanks every night. So far, Magna has proven wrong those who say that unions and effective financial management cannot co-exist. After last November's deal with the Canadian Auto Workers (CAW), credit rating agency S&P said "Magna's ratings and outlook will not be affected by the agreement, which preserves key elements of Magna's unique culture and employee-profit sharing while keeping the union in check with a no-strike provision." At the time the CAW deal was a shocker because Magna boss Frank Stronach had been a staunch "we don't need no stinking unions" CEO. Recent supplier of the year awards from GM and PSA-Peugeot-Citroën point to a high level of customer satisfaction. Magna's most recent quarterly report reveals that sales are up while earning are slightly down. Is this a dead cat bounce, or can a North American-based auto parts supplier remain financially strong, unionized and productive all at the same time? And what's the bet Frank swoops down on Jeep or other bits of Chrysler when they file for C11? 

Welcome to open mic night here at The Inside Joke. First up: you know and love him as The Autoxtremist… Peeeeter DeLorenzooooo! Hi guys. You know as bad as things are in Motown at the mo-ment, it's about to get worse. I bet at least half of you are about to come down with AFTERLUTZ. You know, "The state of shock destined to loom over GM after Bob Lutz hangs up his spurs". No seriously, I'm wondering how many of you've already been HUMMERED. That's "the state of eating or drinking to excess, as in, 'She was supposed to be here for the 7:30 media breakfast, but she got so hummered last night I doubt if she'll make it.'" Hey, no blowjob cracks back there! Anyway, it looks like you've already had a little SMOKEY-TIME. That's what happens during "the classic 'smoke and mirrors' presentations that go on every day in this town and in businesses across the country for that matter, as in, 'We were nowhere in that meeting until Harry went all smokey-time on them, and then we walked out with the order. Unbelievable."' Hey listen, you've been a great audience! Thanks Pete. Picking-up on Sweet Pete's theme, The Truth About Cars' Best and Brightest will now present a few new industry verbs of their own. Take it away TTAC!

Last November, we told you the RV industry was tanking. Back then, Winnebago put a happy face on looming disaster, saying "we still have the demographic wind at our back." Fast forward four months and Winnebago's hanging on by the skin of its Vista. The Wall Street Journal reports that two smaller RV manufacturers have gone Tango Uniform; the big boys are in big trouble. "Coachmen Industries Inc., whose sales have declined 40% over the past three years, is borrowing against the value of life-insurance policies it holds on employees and retirees." Unlike GM's purchase of it's H.Q., "Fleetwood Enterprises Inc., which has posted five straight years of losses, recently sold its Riverside, Calif., headquarters and is seeking buyers for other properties, in an effort to raise $100 million to finance a looming bond redemption." The industry's set to take another hit, thanks to 145k trailers and mobile homes purchased by the U.S. government before and after Hurricane Katrina (shelling-out $2.7b in no-bid contracts, no less). Now known as Toxic Trailers— thanks to their high formaldehyde levels– the products are sure to inspire a class action lawsuit that could be a knockout blow both financially and PR-wise for the whole RV industry. 

The AP [via Yahoo] brings news that the UAW local representing GM's Ontario, Ohio metal stamping plant has given notice of their "intent to strike" this Thursday at 10am. Ontario makes hoods, doors, fenders and floor pans for several GM cars and trucks. Previously, GM plants in Warren and Grand Rapids threatened strikes but settled at the last moment. The UAW workers at Lansing Interiors, however, made good on their threat; the supplier's been on strike almost three weeks, pulling the rug out from under GM's Lambda crossover production (Outlook, Acadia, Enclave). Is the United Auto Workers (UAW) subjecting GM to a death by a thousand cuts? What's the point of negotiating a national contract if every plant covered by the agreement goes out on strike over "local issues?" Union Prez Big Ron Gettelfinger says that the Ontario and other strike threats "are about local contract issues and have nothing to do with American Axle." Yeah right. Most analysts see the GM strikes as an attempt to keep GM's feet to the fire, to force the automaker to bail out/buy out American Axle's union members. Whatever the reason, it will be a long time before GM starts making trucks again. In case anyone's wondering.

As U.S. politicians respond to the imperative "Do something, anything about all those soccer moms driving around while yakking on cell phones (except my wife, of course)," it looks like we ain't got game. According to the country cell phone bans list, use a cell phone whilst driving in New Delhi, India– hands-free or no– and you're looking at prison time. But do all these legal strictures actually increase road safety? The Wall Street Journal [sub] reports that many researchers have concluded that the only deterrent that makes a difference is the New Delhi solution. The New York Times [reg] recently reported on work from Carnegie Mellon saying that even listening on a hands-free cell phone impairs drivers as much as knocking back a few beers. Nobody seems to talk about the safety benefits of cell phones including calling AAA for help with a flat tire, calling 911 to report accidents, reporting road debris before someone gets hurt or calling in drunk drivers. Perspective people, perspective.

Strange but true: I possess a "GM Card" credit card. For every $100 charged to the card I get a $5 discount against a new GM vehicle (up to a certain amount, not to used in a blinding snowstorm, etc.). I signed-up for the fantastic plastic back when I was a loyal GM customer and shareholder. Two crappy GM minivans later, I've jettisoned both GM stock and vehicles. But the card still sits in my wallet, mostly unused. Saturns and Saabs have always been excluded from the GM Card program. Until now. I recently received notice that "Your GM Card Earnings are now redeemable on an eligible, new Saturn vehicle!" Rethink discounts? How long before Saturn gives up on their vaunted One Price policy? There are already reports of Saturn dealers using inflated trade-in values to get around undercut the no-haggle policy.  More to the point, what is so great about no-haggle pricing in the Internet Age?  Why would anyone be stupid enough to pay full sticker for an Aura when the Chevy dealer across the way is playing Let's Make a Deal on a Malibu? Hang on; remind me again why both the Aura and the Malibu exist?

Why would gunslinger/investor Kirk Kerkorian want to buy Ford? After two decades living high off the [gas] hog, Ford’s still suffering the Mother of all Hangovers. The night before the day after, FoMoCo headed down to the Vegas strip and got hitched, polygamy-style (Hertz, Aston-Martin, Jaguar and Volvo). While town father Bill Ford's sobered-up and hired sheriff Mulally– whose drawn-up the divorce papers and cleaned-up the town– it still looks like tornado fodder. And here comes Captain Kirk, all guns blazing, looking to take over the joint. Why now? 

The Associate Press reports [via Yahoo] that UAW leader Gettelfinger was "insulted" to learn that American Axle's plant closure plans include the shut-down of the Cheektowaga, N.Y factory– in addition to the two plants (Detroit and Tonawanda) already sacrificed at the altar of, dare I say it, profit. And get this: King Ron says "he hadn't wanted GM involved." Say what? Big Ron didn't want GM to kick in $200m in extra wages for the guys? "Many of its U.S. competitors won deals from the United Auto Workers to pay newly hired workers about $14 per hour. But American Axle workers say they won't take that big of a pay cut from a company that made $37m last year." So let me get this straight. As long as the company is making any profits the UAW isn't willing to negotiate competitive deals? By my count, American Axle has six US factories (including the three on the chopping block), two in Mexico plus one each in Brazil, China, England, Scotland and Poland. The longer the strike oontinues, the more likely it is that American Axle will ship tooling from its US factories to the others around the world– if it hasn't done so already. Sure there would be disruption, but strikes are plenty disruptive. Seen any Mexican or Chinese auto parts factories go on strike lately?