Posts By: John Horner

By on June 16, 2008

takeo-fukui.jpgThe Wall Street Journal carries a rare interview with Honda CEO Takeo Fukui. Ever the cagey character, Fukui claims to be completely uninterested in the fact that his company just passed Chrysler for the number four slot in the U.S. sales race. "It doesn't really matter if you come in fourth or fifth or first. What's important for us is that our production is going at full capacity and production is balanced with sales." Yeah right, the former Honda motorcycle race team manager doesn't care about the score. When the subject is the delicate matter of how Toyota pulled the green carpet out from under Honda's environmental image, Fukui turns a bit more… combative. "Honda's image was better but has evened out with [Toyota] because of the strong image of one single model, the Prius, which Honda feels is a problem. Next year, we will come up with a dedicated hybrid vehicle. We feel this model will have to overwhelm and overtake Prius. That is key for us." (The hyrdogen fuel cell-powered Clarity? Not so much.) Ladies and gentlemen, start your electric engines! 

By on June 15, 2008

durango.jpgThe Wall Street Journal reports that Chrysler is bumping-up list prices on their new Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep vehicles by two percent, effective June 16th. I fail to see the point when dealers are slapping cash on the hood in ever higher piles amidst a crash in demand. Not to mention the fact that Chrysler has yet to announce their much-ballyhooed across-the-board-model cuts. The official justification for the price hike: "[Chrysler spokesman Stuart] Schorr said at the beginning of this model year Chrysler put in an average increase of $1,200 in content per vehicle without raising prices," Automotive News [sub] reports. Just in case you were thinking Schorr was referring to significantly upgraded interiors, "the executives said increasing commodity prices, including steel, pushed the company to raise prices." Yes, well, you have to wonder just how many more 2008 Chrysler products are going to come out of the factories between June 16th and the start of 2009 model year production. This all seems like a bizarre going-through-the-motions exercise, perhaps intended to convince a future buyer that Chrysler is what's commonly referred to as a "going concern." Tick tock.

By on June 14, 2008

car-2c.JPGThe AP reports America's second largest automotive hauler is giving up. Thanks to a Teamster's strike, Performance Transportation Services (PTS) is calling it quits. PTS was already operating under Chapter 11 reorganization caused by the double whammy of imploding demand and skyrocketing fuel costs. Perhaps the fact that PTS was not a participant in the "national car haulers contract" with the Teamsters are negotiating with other major suppliers had something to do with what went down. CEO Jeff Cornish concluded that "the leadership of the union had a different agenda [other than PTS' workers' paychecks]." Oh well. The company that "delivered more than 4 million new and used cars annually from 24 facilities nationwide with its fleet of 1,800 trucks" is now gone for good. Expect to see more cars on freight trains. Or maybe Toyota wants to mop-up some of it's extra cash and put 1800 rolling billboards on the highway with it's own-branded delivery fleet. The four Horsemen of the Apocalypse continue to gallop through the American automotive industry's supplier base.

By on June 10, 2008

autobaron02.jpgWhat if you threw a party for 20 million guests and over a billion said sure, they'd love to go! The AP [via Yahoo!] reports on Tracinda's offer to buy Ford Motor Company common stock for $8/share. Roughly half of the outstanding shares were tendered against the offer. The response reflects the pervasive pessimistic view of FoMoCo future; offer stockholders a little over the present trading price and they are so out-a-here. Maybe Kirk has a dastardly plan to buy up 10k Ford Explorers for $15m (fleet pricing), sell 'em to friends in Saudi Arabia, drive up the price of Ford stock, then dump his stock at a profit. Far fetched for sure. But what other explanation can we devise for Kirk Kerkorian's hots for Ford stock? Unless, of course, you have plans to seize control of the company.

By on June 9, 2008

jacksonspeakshl.jpgThe Wall Street Journal reports that Michael Jackson is joining a growing chorus shouting "take your medicine." No it's not MJ handing a can of Coke to a young fan. It's the CEO of mega-dealer AutoNation, who thinks "high gas prices are good for the U.S. auto industry." Just as Scott McClellan trash-talking the Bush administration, Jackson is biting the hand that feeds. "We are highly skilled at selling size, horsepower and speed at a premium price, and giving away fuel efficiency," Jackson opines. "Now, going forward over the next 10 years we are going to have to convince consumers why they should pay more for a smaller engine, or some new technology, that is going to give them a tremendous benefit on fuel efficiency." Surely it's a new day in the US of A when the top car salesman in the land embraces the challenge of selling fuel efficiency. Who's bad?

By on June 9, 2008

uplander.jpgThe AP reports that U.S. minivan sales are down a pickup-truck like 20 percent so far this year, against an overall light vehicle market drop of eight percent. Ford has already given up on minivans; they scuttled the Freestar in 2006. GM is nearly done as well; deep-sixing the Ten Worst-winning Chevy Uplander. Some would-be minivan buyers are moving to "crossovers" and others are downsizing more radically. Some market watchers see a minivan renaissance ahead, as Generation Y starts sharing both X and Y chromosomes and Baby Boomers look to minivans to transport their grandchildren (huh?). Global Insight predicts U.S. minivan sales will settle in at around 650,000 through 2012, when they could jump back up to 700k as the market improves. Maybe. Global ignores the fickle nature of fashion-oriented buyers; there's a solid history of generational antipathy, as car buyers reject their parents' vehicles. Still, seven-passenger SUVs, mpg and gas prices… 

By on June 8, 2008

unity.jpgAccording to the Wall Stree Journal, octogenarian investor Kirk Kerkorian's $8.50/share offer for up to 20 million shares of Ford stock is likely to be fully subscribed when it closes on Monday. Ya think? The Lion of Las Vegas' offer is well above Ford's closing price on Friday ($6.04). "The original tender included a clause reserving the right to pull the offer if Ford's stock price declined by 10 percent or more from its May 8 closing price of $8.20. But the Beverly Hills, Calif., company, which is wholly controlled by Mr. Kerkorian, declared it would not employ that escape route — in a sign of confidence in the future value of the company." Why is Kirkorian willing to pay over market price for a publicly traded stock? Hey. he's the billionaire and I'm not. Kerkorian and sidekick Jerry York have been publicly advocating the sale of Volvo and axing Mercury. One problem: Ford family members have long resisted putting Mercury down. In fact, Elena Ford ran Lincoln-Mercury for several years (and claimed credit for it's turnaround) before being "promoted" to head of marketing at Ford Motor Credit. The Journal raises interesting questions about how Kerkorian's ownership will affect the Ford heirs' iron grip on decision making. Said heirs own about three percent of Ford stock, yet control 40 percent of the voting rights. If and when FoMoCo needs more cash, Kerkorian seems prepared to provide it; but only if his shares get full voting rights. In that scenario, there's a good chance Crazy Henry's third generation lucky eggs will have to surrender control to Kirkorian to raise the cash. Either that or everybody loses everything in Chapter 11. 

By on June 6, 2008

japan_station_large.jpgIn response to Honda's upcoming limited release of the FCX Clarity fuel cell car, Toyota has announced plans to start leasing the seductively named "FCHV-adv" in Japan later this year. If this is a beauty contest, FCX kicks FCHV's butt.  FCHV-adv's main claim to fame: a range of 760 – 830 km (472 – 516 miles). Long term durability of the fuel cell unit itself is "subject to ongoing R&D," which means it isn't there yet. Meanwhile, "Honda Motor Co.'s revamped fuel cell vehicle for leasing in California is rolling off a Japanese factory floor later this month." Forget Ford vs. Chevy; the real battle today is Honda vs. Toyota. Which begs the question: what happened to the GM Hy-Wire concept vehicle Wagoner showed off way back in 2002 as the The Answer? And lest we forget, where's the hydrogen for these vehicles going to come from? Oil?

By on June 6, 2008

2008_tundra_4×2_double_cab_10.jpgTalk about your diminished expectations… Post-Black Tuesday, GM CEO Rick Wagoner's told the world [via The Financial Times] that his employer has enough cash to make it through '08. And while you're filing that under "methinks he doth protest too much," Wagoner defends GM's (and the rest of the 2.8's) reliance on big trucks and full sized SUVs by… pointing a finger at Toyota. By his way of thinking, you can't blame Detroit (i.e. him) for missing the SUV and pickup truck exodus because Toyota got caught building a new truck factory at the wrong time. Huh? Toyota added a full-sized truck to its product portfolio to compete vigorously in one of the few segments of the market where they were weak. (Lest we forget, they built the Prius in record numbers at the same time.) Sure it turns out that Toyota's Tundra timing was off, but they aren't at risk of closing up shop because of it. Bottom line: ToMoCo books more profit in one year than GM's entire net worth. Comparing GM's management decisions to Toyota's is patently absurd. Will no one rid us of this troublesome man? 

By on June 6, 2008

16634_preview_2.jpgThe New York Times reports that the diesel version of the European market Honda Accord is headed for your Acura dealer as a TSX in 2009. Bosch, a key supplier, "sneaked" a demonstration version of the Honda Diesel into The Big Apple, where The Old Gray Lady got her hands on it. With no official EPA test numbers to speak of, the Times achieved "a remarkable 53 miles a gallon on the highway, 34 in the city and 44 in combined driving… including a bumper-to-bumper crawl through Manhattan." My personal TSX clocks-in at around 20 mpg in city driving and the 30s on the open highway; the Times' numbers a big jump in the right direction. Honda might be onto something here. Unlike Mercedes' Cailfornia-compliant oil burner, the Honda's mill doesn't require a urea tank. So much for German Engineering Superiority. If the final US market TSX can hit those fuel economy numbers… the diesel fuel price premium will still kneecap sales. The $5.13/gallon question is, since when is diesel the upmarket alternative to hybrids (including the ill-fated Mercedes 300SD)? The high-end Accord V6 hybrid was a flop. Will the TSX Diesel face the same fate? 

By on June 3, 2008

bilde-copy.jpgIn a video interview with USA Today. Ford CEO Alan Mulally admits that American consumers' switch to smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles is permanent. Despite talking-up the new F150's chances of success, Big Al reckons the move from light trucks is "not a temporary shunning of big SUVs while they wait for record fuel prices to drop." Which Mulally says ain't gonna happen, anyway. "It's not like we have a shortage of oil, but recovering what's left under the earth has become very expensive, ensuring continuing high prices." When asked for a new date for The Blue Oval's scheduled return to profitability– previously set at 2009– the former Boeing exec would only say it's delayed by a weak economy and the shift from "high value trucks" to smaller cars. The video clips are interesting to watch, and much less painful than anything from Lutz or Wagoneer. But the spin doesn't stop here. Asked about Volvo, Mulally claimed the ailing Swedish brand isn't for sale. Last April, Mulally told the world Jaguar wasn't for sale. That deal went down yesterday.

By on May 30, 2008

53216974_pr.jpgLast February, GM offered buyouts to all 74k of its remaining US hourly workers. We now know Some 19k GM union members are so out of here. J.P. Morgan analyst Himanushu Patel predicts GM won't replace up to 15k of the departing union members, for total annual savings of $2.1 billion. For mortals, $2.1B is big bucks. But for cash-burning GM 'tis nuth'n. For years now, GM has been reporting record-setting cost reductions and record-setting losses. Talk about saving your way to nothing! The boogiemen on Wall Street bid the stock to a 26-year low of $17.38 at yesterday's bell. AP reports via Yahoo! Business that the General is thinking about moving workers off the truck assembly lines and onto building the cars which are actually selling. GM eliminated shifts at two truck plants in Michigan. Laid-off workers could be moved to a car assembly factory in nearby Orion Township, where GM is negotiating with the UAW to add a third shift. Negotiations? "We haven't got anything final," says Mike Dunn, bargaining chairman of UAW Local 5960. "We're always looking to bring work in. We're hoping before the year's out that we can accomplish this goal." Hey, what's the rush?

By on May 30, 2008

08f-450_sd_19.jpgEven though Ford Motor Credit avoided the mortgage madness haunting GMAC, the credit crisis is taking its toll. Today's Wall Street Journal reports that FMC's delinquencies are up. Upside-down car and truck owners are giving up and giving back. With resale values falling through the floor, the bankers are stuck with monster truck-sized losses on repossessed vehicles. Even clean lease returns are a problem. Contemplating their ailing credit ops and DOA truck market, The Blue Oval Boyz have pushed out it's profitability date from 2009 to… someday. "Ford started the year expecting its credit arm to match the $1.2 billion in pretax profit it earned last year, but now has a much dimmer outlook. In the first quarter, Ford Credit earned just $36 million, $257 million less than in the year-earlier period." Unlike GM's sell-off of GMAC, Ford continues to say it "has reviewed the option of selling the unit many times over the years but has always come to the conclusion that Ford Credit is a strategic asset for the auto maker." Which is lucky; who'd buy it? Never one to miss the obvious, Ford share stalker Kirk Kerkorian's go-to guy Jerome York fingers Ford Credit as "an area of weakness." Ya think?

By on May 30, 2008

2009_ford_fiesta_0_430.jpgFord is bringing the Fiesta back to the US of A (AP via Yahoo!). Lke the Fusion, this American car will be Hecho en Mexico. Looks like UAW President Big Ron Gettlefinger didn't get far with his argument that Ford's U.S. plants are "competitive enough that the automaker could make money building its smallest cars in the U.S." Somehow I don't think the recent "independent" strike actions at multiple UAW factories bolstered his argument much. The last time Ford sold Fiestas in the homeland they were made in Germany, imported from 1978 through 1980. Almost nobody bought them, in part because Ford dealers didn't have a clue about selling the silly little things. Although a flop at home, worldwide the Fiesta has been a perennial best selling sub-compact. This latest version will go on sale in Europe, China and other markets before making it's way back home. Assuming gas prices stay high, the new Fiesta should find a strong welcome at your local Blue Oval dealer. The question is, what is taking so long? Why is China in on the initial roll out while the world's largest car market (yes that's still us) has to wait another two years?

By on May 28, 2008

dscn4054.JPGCNN declares that "compared with March a year earlier, Americans drove an estimated 4.3 percent less– that's 11 billion fewer miles." The Federal Highway Administration called it "the sharpest yearly drop for any month… since 1942" (when they started keeping records). At the same time, public transportation ridership has hit the highest level in 50 years. The AAA pegs average regular gas prices at $3.936/gallon this Memorial Day, compared to $3.23 last year. Now a sixty cent increase over a year really isn't very much in the grand scheme of things, but the magic number of $4 per gallon seems to have hit the nation's collective panic button. One thing doesn't add up. The Energy Information Center says fuel use is down only 0.6 percent for the first three months of the year. The D.O.T. says March miles traveled are down 4.3 percent. Those two numbers don't seem to jibe, but who says government agency numbers ever make sense? Pick whichever numbers you like, the trend is clear: $4+ per gallon gasoline is curtailing the world's most mobile nation's mobility.

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