Pity The New York Times. When presidential candidate John McCain suggested suspending the federal gas tax– a republican-anti-tax-compatible theoretical quick fix for pain at the pump– no problem. Off with his head! But when Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton threw her support behind the plan, well, that's heresy! Needless to say, the tax-loving liberal paper give both John and Hillary a proper bitch slapping. "Nixing the gas tax would increase demand for gasoline — exactly the wrong response to global warming and rising energy prices. So wrong, in fact, that both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain support policies that would cut carbon emissions and increase the price of energy. (Talk about voting for something before they voted against it.)." Bad consumer! Bad consumer! "Americans — like the rest of the world — must find ways to curb their use of fossil fuels. Higher, not lower, prices are an important way to spur the needed technological innovation and curb demand." While they're at it, how about a good old-fashioned Bush bash? (Only 194 days 'til the next election!) "There is not enough oil in Alaska to provide a lasting solution. And Mr. Bush’s prescription would do nothing to address climate change or quench the thirst for oil." Barak wins! "Fortunately, Mr. Obama has not caved to the rising calls for cheap energy and has refused to follow his rivals down this misguided path." The editorial ends with just the right touch of sanctimonious self-congratulation. "We know pandering when we see it."
Posts By: Robert Farago
Business Week's ed forgot the "compare" side of the "compare and contrast" assignment to scribe Ian Rowley re: Japanese and American automakers' fortunes. Wander 'round TTAC for the U.S. side of the equation (hint: falling market share is rarely a good thing). For Japan, BW tells us that reduced targets for operating profits paint a bleak picture for Honda, Mazda and Mitsubishi (trimmed by 32, 29 and 45 percent, respectively). But it ain't all that bad, when you think about it. "All $3 billion of the projected decline in Honda's operating profitability is explained by the yen's sudden rise against the dollar and other currencies. Against the greenback, for example, Honda is projecting a dollar-yen rate of 100, compared to an average of 114 in the previous year. That alone is enough to wipe off $2.4 billion from profits when sales made in dollars are translated back into yen. Yet when it comes to selling vehicles Honda shows few signs of slowing down, despite weak market sales in the U.S. and Japan, its two biggest markets." All the Japanese majors are expanding production– and for good reason. "In markets including China, India, and the Middle East there is a major change in their trend toward higher ownership levels and the Japanese majors are well placed to benefit from this trend,' says Deutsche Bank's Sanger. After a tough 2008, look for an earnings recovery at Japan's carmakers." [NB: Toyota and Nissan have yet to sign-in with their numbers. We'll update you as and when.]
Dean Radin believes some people are psychic. No surprise there; investigating psychic phenomena is what Radin does for a living. And yet, when author Mary Roach asked the electrical engineer if there's a middle ground between believing that the dead contact the living through electromechanical devices and viewing the whole thing a hoax, Radin said "The middle ground between genuinely true and outright faking is unconscious delusion." Welcome to GM's world.
And this, folks, is just the beginning. Or the end. Or the beginning of the end. Whatever you call it, however you look at it, GM's $3.25b first quarter financial loss makes a mockery of CEO Rick Wagoner's $14.4m annual compensation, and eliminates any hope that GM's foreign markets can keep the corporate mothership afloat. As Bloomberg reports, the number would have been even more horrific if not for GM's international growth. "GM's European profit grew by more than 18 times to $75 million. The Asia-Pacific region and Latin America-Africa-Middle East region doubled earnings to $286 million and $517 million, respectively." Meanwhile, "GM had an $812 million pretax loss in North America, its largest region, wider than the $208 million deficit a year earlier." And if you think things will be better stateside in the second, third or fourth quarter, what with strikes and tanked SUV and pickup sales, you need to be working at GM. Otherwise, no one will believe you. [Read General Motors Death Watch 175: Phone Calls from the Dead for a full analysis.]
Critics have long maintained that "safety cameras" (a.k.a. no-armed bandits) cause crashes. Unsuspecting drivers stumble upon a camera, hit the brakes hard and BAM! Rear-end collision. This is especially likely for motorists who suddenly catch sight of camera vans (a.k.a. "Talivans"). Well duh. The whole point of these infernal machines is to catch motorists "off guard." Otherwise, well, they wouldn't make any money catch any speeders, would they? But scientific studies and common sense will only take you so far, hearts and minds-wise. What could really turn the tide is a video of a Talivan-caused crash. And the BBC had just such a video. Only they pulled it. Which has pissed off the Association of British Drivers no end. "The video was first shown on BBC News 24 on Monday 21st April when it was bizarrely used to illustrate a misleading story claiming that 'speeding' is by far the biggest cause of accidents. The video later appeared on the BBC News website at this address: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7358372.stm, but by the next day it had mysteriously disappeared." ABD member Keith Jones said Auntie Beeb told him that the video is missing from their website "because of a technical problem." They don't know when it will be fixed and "do not provide feedback on progress." So much for tax-payer funding guaranteeing the BBC's editorial independence, transparency or accountability. Not that it ever did, mind.
It's been a frenetic couple of few news days, and most of it's been bad. Especially for GM. Thirty-two GM plants are off-line, high-profit truck and SUV U.S. sales are in the tank, production's been cut, GMAC is in the the crapper and… CEO Rick Wagoner got a 64 percent pay raise! Having GM DW'ed this saga since April 2005, I'm just about ready to pronounce the company R.I.P. (New Death Watch on its way). Let's assume for a moment that I'm right: GM files for C11. It seems perfectly obvious to me that if either Democratic presidential candidate makes it to the White House, a bailout– perhaps in the Chrysler-esque form of federal loan guarantees– is a dead cert. McCain, on the other hand, went to Iowa, stood in front of the corn farmers and told them he would NOT continue federal subsidies. To use the venacular, that is some serious shit. I'm not so sure John would cut the check for GM. But should he? One way or another, GM employs millions of people. What kind of deal should the U.S. gov'mint cut with GM? Or… not?
Earlier today, automotive analysts blamed a large chunk of Daimler's Q4 profits downturn on its remaining 19.9 percent share in Chrysler. According to their calculations, Chrysler inflicted a $2.7b drag on Daimler. Although Market Watch duly reported that "the German automaker cautioned against making that calculation, citing the differences between international and U.S. accounting," Chrysler PR switched into damage control. An email pointed-out that the results are for Chrysler Holding LLC, which includes both the automotive and financial services operations. What's more, that accounting thing is a big deal. "There are significant differences between IFRS and U.S. GAAP accounting standards. Major differences include the effects of the acquisition of Chrysler Holding LLC by Cerberus, including recent restructuring actions by Chrysler LLC and the accounting for pension costs under the 2007 UAW contract. Accordingly, the 2007 financial results of Chrysler LLC under U.S. GAAP are substantially better than the IFRS-based financial results utilized by Daimler." Chrysler flackmeister Katie Hepler told TTAC that ChryCo "enjoyed positive operational earnings during Q4." So what about CEO Bob Nardelli's statement back in December that his employer was "operationally bankrupt?" No comment.
GMAC is the lender underwriting the vast majority of GM dealers' loans, facilitating the finance that's been fueling GM sales. GMAC's ResCap sub-division handles residential mortages. It may come as no surprise that both parts of the biz– owned jointly by GM and Cerberus (Chrysler's 80% owner)– are in deep shit. Yahoo!Finance reports "GMAC lost $589 million during the first quarter of 2008, compared with a loss of $305 million during the same period the previous year. [Ed: that's a 93 percent swing in the wrong direction.] The automotive finance division earned $258 million during the first quarter, a 35 percent decline from the year-ago period. GMAC cited weaker credit performance, including rising credit loss provisions and rising costs tied to restructuring operations." Something to do with a tanking new car market as well. ResCap "only" lost $859m during the first quarter, a slight improvement on the $910m lost during the same period last year. GM's former cash cow will soon require a fresh capital injection— a possibility dismissed by Cerberus– or face bankruptcy. And if GMAC goes down, there will be chaos on the showroom floor.
If so, stick a fork in Detroit. And federal mpg regulators will look like geniuses, as the free market stampedes to high mileage vehicles. As Captain Picard might say, what will make it so? Writing for The New York Sun, Dan Dorfman relies on three analysts for his, uh, analysis. First up, Troy Green of the American Automobile Association. The trip-A guy's forecast "calls for" (perhaps not the best choice of words) a jump to between $7 and $10 a gallon in two to three years, based on $200 a barrel crude. The chairman of Houston-based Dune Energy is slightly more optimistic. Alan Gaines sees gas rising to $7 to $8 a gallon on Arrakis. I mean, stateside. Weiss Research commodities trader Sean Brodrick projects $8 to $10 a gallon gas. Like any good financial pundit, Dorfman hedges his cred. "His [Gaines] latest prediction of $200 oil is open to question, since it would undoubtedly create considerable global economic distress. Further, just about every energy expert I talk to cautions me to expect a sizable pullback in oil prices, maybe to between $50 and $70 a barrel, especially if there's a global economic slowdown." [thanks to jthorner for the link]
A sports car? An economy car? A pickup truck? A genuine off-roader? A soup ladle? The reincarnation of an '87 AMC Eagle? Oh wait, maybe the last one. Anyway, the official pre-ad campaign press release reveals that Spartanberg's finest– the X6 "SportyActivity Coupe" — is about to get the Star Wars Episode IV "A New Hope" treatment. The company will project a holographic image of Bimmer's new car truck SAC in the lobby of four prominent Wall Street enclaves (so to speak), complete with the message "You must see this droid safely delivered to Alderaan." The ad agency that devised this hi-tech, what's the word? Solution, clearly understands the vehicle's WTF factor. "The BMW X6 doesn't look like anything BMW has ever produced — you have to see it to believe it," said Duff Stewart, President and COO of GSD&M Idea City. "Our goal was to put this amazing vehicle in front of its best prospects and stop them in their tracks." How come those ad guys never say "and buy it?" BTW: BMW says the X6 is "Coupe's evil twin."
Jim Croce wouldn't like TTAC; we have no compunctions about tugging on Superman's cape. In fact, it's no big deal. But it is for Automotive News [sub]: "Still, Toyota's vaunted inventory controls have come up against market forces even it cannot tame." Whoa! And there I was thinking ToMoCo had moved past inventory control to weather control. Nope. "The number of units in dealership stock and en route have swelled to about 376,000. That's about 100,000 units more than were on the ground last summer, and up from about 348,000 a year ago." While ToMoCo's "turndown pool" (vehicles rejected by dealers) has swelled to 9700 vehicles, these stats are, frankly, small beer compared to the situation over at GM. GM's cash flow and profit-critical truck inventory may be in great shape, but that's because the American Axle strike means they ain't building them. And they've just announced their decision to make 138k fewer trucks this year. That's in addition (?) to all the trucks they're currently not making. "With rising fuel prices, a softening economy, and a downward trend on current and future market demand for full-size trucks, a significant adjustment was needed to align our production with market realities," said Troy Clarke, GM NA Prez. This, folks, is the reckoning.
Are you a Cornhusker State resident working in the ethanol industry– and who doesn't?– but don't know how to get your piece of the taxpayer pie? Well come on down to Nebraska's E85 Direct Marketing Workshops! Domestic Fuel reports/shills that "The aim of the workshops is to promote direct marketing relationships between ethanol producers and fuel retailers and reduce costs for all parties involved. Ethanol plants, petroleum equipment suppliers, petroleum marketers and auto dealers are encouraged to attend these free workshops. Presentations will address E85 handling and storage, regulations and safety procedures, applying for the ethanol blender tax credit, and direct marketing of E85 from ethanol plant to retailer." The workshops are sponsored– sorry, "presented" by The Nebraska Ethanol Board, the National Ethanol Vehicle Coalition and the Clean Fuels Development Coalition. Just in case you can't see through that smokescreen, Domestic Fuel spells it out. "The project is funded in part by a grant from the Nebraska Department of Economic Development administered by the Nebraska Rural Development Commission."
I received a dozen emails today inviting me to check out Jalopnik's new sponsor. Sure enough, the words "Presented by Acura TSX" are now prominently displayed next to the site's name. While searching for the footnote "no definite article need apply," I noticed that Jalopnik is festooned with ads for the Acura TSX. So I called Gawker's main man, Ray Wert. I asked if the new deal is a New Deal for the site's editorial independence. Ray assured me the Acura gravy train would have "no effect whatsoever" on his ability to run "positive or negative coverage" of the manufacturer in general, or the model in specific. Ray pointed-out that "presented by" is not the same as "sponsored by." And Jalopnik launched with Audi's sponsorship (the TT reflected in the logo lollypop sucker's sunglasses). He said Audi never yanked Spinelli's chain. Only they did. And, eventually, after a negative review, bailed. Ray's got integrity all day. But it's not enough to BE independent. You have to avoid the APPEARANCE of being Acura's bitch. Those of you who know Ray will know that the aforementioned comment will assure the man's fierce examination of everything we do to sniff out the slightest whiff of hypocrisy. We welcome the scrutiny.
The New York Times wants us to know that the possibility of deleterious health effects from hybrids' electromagnetic fields (E.M.F.) is not so unbelievable. (OH!) "With the batteries and power cables in hybrids often placed close to the driver and passengers, some exposure to electromagnetic fields is unavoidable. Moreover, the exposure will be prolonged — unlike, say, using a hair dryer or electric shaver — for drivers who spend hours each day at the wheel… Their [critics] concern is not without merit…" Not without merit? Is that the same as real? Scribe Jim Motavali ain't saying. Instead, an anecdote from E.M.F.-aware Civic Hybrid owner Neysa Linzer offers the proverbial money shot: "She said… her blood pressure rose and she fell asleep at the wheel three times, narrowly averting accidents. 'I never had a sleepiness problem before,' Ms. Linzer said, adding that it was her own conclusion, not a doctor’s, that the car was causing the symptoms." Toyota's Prius spokesperson responded to the concern by saying "What are you guys, nuts?" More specifically, "The measured electromagnetic fields inside and outside of Toyota hybrid vehicles in the 50 to 60 hertz range are at the same low levels as conventional gasoline vehicles. Therefore there are no additional health risks to drivers, passengers or bystanders.” [thanks to QuasiMondo for the link]
So much for moral outrage about the senseless (in a moral sense) violence in the videogame Grand Theft Auto. Well, at least amongst the eggeheads over at The New York Times. Critic Seth "No German Jokes Please" Schiesel hails Grand Theft Auto IV– released today– as "violent, intelligent, profane, endearing, obnoxious, sly, richly textured and thoroughly compelling work of cultural satire disguised as fun." Yeah, I bet it fools a LOT of impressionable kids. Clearly, as before, there's nothing PC about GTA IV (so to speak): "Hardly a demographic escapes skewering. In addition to various Italian and Irish crime families, there are venal Russian gangsters, black crack slingers, argyle-sporting Jamaican potheads, Puerto Rican hoodlums, a corrupt police commissioner, a steroid-addled Brooklyn knucklehead named Brucie Kibbutz and a former Eastern European soldier who has become a twee Upper West Side metrosexual." What, no 'ho's and bitches? Sure! Plenty! Uh, what about cars? Car theft? For that we must await reports from TTAC's Best and Brightest. You soldiers have your orders. Now get the fuck outta here!
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