As billions pour into projects aimed at making the Canadian prairies the world's largest exporter of crude oil, supposedly insulating Canada from an American economic downturn, two major Canadian news sources foreshadow a gloomy future for The Great White North. Canwest News (via Canada.com) quotes a study conducted by CIBC World Markets (the investment arm of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) that suggests oil prices could surge to $225 per barrel by 2012. That would push Canadian gasoline prices to about $2.25/L (or about $8 gallon at current exchange rates). According to Jeff Rubin, World Market's chief economist, oil supplies are static; demand isn't. "[For] every extra driver that gets a car and goes on the road in those (developing) countries in the next five to six years, somebody's having to get off the road in the OECD countries." Meanwhile, Montréal's La Presse ran the results of a study conducted by energy analyst and longtime doom-and-gloomer Patrick Déry. He predicted Peak Oil's (long-awaited?) arrival in 2018; Québec and other net importers of energy will run out of oil supply by 2030. 

FIAT, the parent company of Alfa Romeo, is considering launching its return to North American soil using Ontario as its home base. So says CTV News, though FIAT chairman Sergio Marchonne has not acknowledged any talks with Ontario's government– but has set a goal of building a New World Alfa Romeo by 2012. Ontario can bank on a small home-field advantage; Marchionne was raised and educated in the Toronto area. A joint venture is possible, given that any Alfa will initially be a low-volume niche vehicle. Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, General Motors and Honda are all well-established manufacturers in Ontario. The downside: most of these Alfas are destined to be sold in the U.S. Building cars in Canada is a mighty pricey proposition. Besides, could a car built by a bunch of overall-wearin', double-double-drinkin' Toronto Maple Leafs fans named "Duggie" and "Murray" still have what  pistonheads refer to as "Alfa-ness?" Che macello!

I'll give TTAC's Canadian readers the bad news first: As the summer driving season approaches, gas prices in Canada are nearing record highs established in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. The good news? CTV reports that a recent ruling in Ontario has reversed a ticket issued to a Montreal artist who was charged with driving in unsafe car through downtown Toronto. Michel De Broin took his 1986 Buick, removed the engine, suspension, gearing, electrical systems and floorboards and replaced it all with tea-candles for headlights and a "shared propulsion" pedalling system, where all passengers in the car can contribute to its advancement by pedalling (top speed is 15 km/h, or about 9 mph). Justice Patrick Marum ruled that the Crown had failed to prove the car was dangerous, and the charges of operating an unsafe motor vehicle that De Broin faced were summarily dropped. Take that, Tata! If this ruling sets a precendent, Canada has moved ahead in the race to bring legal, zero-emissions cars to North America.

Something I’ve noticed: no discussion on corporate governance can go longer than five minutes before executive compensation comes up. It’s as predictable as “the scream” coming up when discussing Howard Dean. And why not? As a possible recession looms, executive pay remains the same. If North America’s economy is coming down with the mumps, its automotive industry may as well have Ebola. Chrysler was declared “operationally bankrupt” by its own its own CEO (before a cynical volte-face), while billion-dollar losses mount at GM and Ford. Yet all the people at the top of America’s piston pyramid continue to be compensated quite luxuriously. What’s up with that?

On April 1st, 2008 significant modifications to road safety regulations in the Canadian provinces of Québec and Nova Scotia went into effect. CTV.ca reports that handheld cellular phones are now verboten while at the wheel, though hands free devices are still tolerated. Nova Scotia will begin ticketing the offense immediately, while Québec has allowed for a three-month grace periods in which offenders will only receive stern warnings and moralizing sermons. The first offense in Nova Scotia will cost $165, while costing $80-$110 and three demerit points in Québec. Still not satisfied, road safety advocate Jean-Marie de Koeninck argues that "[h]ands-free is just as dangerous. (But) by forbidding the hand-held it does send a signal that there is a problem with the cellphone, there's a problem with concentration". Meanwhile, the same traffic safety bill in Québec also doubled all speeding fines , with new suspension of license provisions for those caught traveling at 40 km/h over the limit in under-60 zones, 50 km/h in 60-90 over zones, and 60 km/h over in 100+ zones. All in the name of safety, presumably.

CTV.ca  reports that John Baird, Canada's firebrand Minister of the Environment, has green-lighted a $90 million vehicle scrappage program. In essence, the objective of the program is to encourage Canadians to trade in their high-emission beaters in favor of credits on a new car. CTV notes that "[t]hese older vehicles make up just a fraction of the estimated 18 million vehicles in Canada, but they account for up to two-thirds of the pollution that causes smog." There is a current mish-mash of recycling programs in Canada, but the new legislation aims at creating a national, uniform program for beaters nationwide. Though one can't argue with the aesthetic merits of getting some of the ancient, rusted-out Pontiac Parisiennes off Canadian roads, one has to wonder about how enticing any recycling credits would really be. All of those clunkers, being fully depreciated and cheap to insure, have  very low cost of ownership, which usually (and easily) offsets any extra fuel costs. Unfortunately, specifics of the plan have not been announced by the Federal government, which makes any assessment of its effectiveness difficult, at best.

After Lexus' slow start in Japan, Toyota has announced plans to introduce India to the premium brand within the next two years. To that end, India's Economic Times reports that the flagship Lexus LS sedan and LX SUV will lead the way, followed closely by the RX CUV. Toyota is investing heavily, planning stand-alone Lexus dealerships so that Lexus can "operate from a separate exclusive entity to maintain its niche brand value." As it has in the U.S., Toyota will align Lexus to compete against the usual (German) suspects: BMW, Audi, Mercedes and Porsche. Given the country's burgeoning nouveau riche class, India appears to be a great candidate for a brand with no "real" provenance or heritage. If Tata expands Jaguar/Land Rover distribution to India– and why wouldn't they?– the great tiger will be the scene of some interesting luxury car wars over the next decade.

Timothy Gardner and Rebekah Kebede of Reuters [via the Calgary Herald ] claim that an increase in America's output of cheap, subsidized ethanol, along with additional gasoline refining capacity coming online, may lower U.S. gas prices. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, American production will rise by 130k barrels of ethanol per day in 2008 (up to 550,000). Gardner and Kebede note that the government subsidizes blenders to the tune of $0.51/barrel of blended ethanol, and that "the subsidies have made ethanol cheaper than gasoline and a much sought after component for blending into motor fuel." Another factor that could contribute to falling prices: the slowing of American demand for gasoline. While demand grew by 1.3 percent annually from 1971 to 2007, growth has slowed down 0.7 percent in 2007 and the government forecasts a paltry 0.4 percent for 2008. And what of transportation costs and logistics? (Ethanol can't be transported via existing pipes; it must be transported by diesel burning tanker trucks.) Or consumer reluctance to use corn juice once they figure out the (often hidden) fact that 85 delivers significantly less bang-for-the-buck? Nothing. 

Like Coke, the basic recipe for the Ford Mustang's success has remained relatively unchanged since its introduction: a low sticker price, some pretty sheet metal, a V8 (halo-ing for a V6), a live rear axle and an intangible sense of Americana. That hasn't stopped Ford from experimenting with "New Coke" every now and then– you'll recall the Mustang II and the SVO. Well, get ready for more: Motor Trend reports that Ford's suits are considering losing the V8 entirely and inserting the upcoming 3.5-liter V6-TT EcoBoost engine in the 2010 Mustang. The move is no doubt inspired by the same federal regs which have forced GM to consider slotting a turbo-four into the Camaro (and cancelling its DOHC V8 program). On the plus side, the V6-TT engine is slated to make 340hp and a very muscular 340 ft.lbs of torque. These figures easily blow the current V6 used in the Mustang out of the water. In fact, the TT's a match for the 4.6L-liter V8 currently inhabiting the 'Stang GT's engine bay. But can you have a "real" Mustang without offering a V8? And if the new six this becomes the Mustang's top-line engine, could an EcoBoost turbo-four in the base Mustang be far behind? BTW: all those Coke variants didn't up their total market share. 

Autoweek 's Richard Truett reports that General Motors, feeling squeezed by ever-tightening fuel economy standards and ever-rising gas prices, is considering offering a turbocharged 4-cylinder engine for the base trim of its upcoming 2010 (for this week, anyway) Camaro. Speaking at the NY Autoshow, GM Vice-Chairman and daily TTAC newsblog fodderman Bob Lutz said he feels that the RWD drivetrains available from the Solstice GXP and Sky Red Line would make an excellent fit in a Camaro. Of course, the last time GM tried the i4/Camaro recipe, we ended up with the "Iron Duke" in slower-than-molasses 1982 Camaro. It's not so much the number of cylinders or the power output that bothers me – indeed, a 260 HP Ecotec is more powerful than some V8's of yore – but the turbocharging. To me, American muscle means a big, lazy, rumbling naturally-aspirated torque bomber with even power and torque-curves. I don't think I could ever get used to a Camaro with the exhaust note of a Cobalt SS.

When I drove a Buick Terraza around Berkeley last fall, I was overwhelmed by the sense of occasion that came with it. The car had so much ghetto cachet I almost fell in love with it. It reinforced all of the car enthusiast prejudices I harbored about minivans (i.e., they suck). And for that, I thanked it. The Toyota Sienna, on the other hand, proved to be a bigger challenge. Each time I wanted to hate some aspect of the minivan, I found myself pleasantly surprised. I don't think I'm giving anything away saying right from the outset that the world's most boring carmaker has made the best example of the world's most boring type of car.

Montreal's largest French language daily has published a study on its site comparing 250 vehicles available for sale in Canada on the basis of MRSP, city fuel consumption, highway fuel consumption. Even better, La Presse published the numbers in a Microsoft Excel file where the findings & methodology are bare for all to see, giving full license to challenge the article's findings.  (Imagine Car & Driver or Consumer Reports doing this!) For example, the study's author, Canadian auto-journalist Alain McKenna, states that American cars top the study by having the lowest operating cost per year. When I sorted the file, I noticed the top three cars were The Chevrolet Aveo, the Pontiac Wave and the Suzuki Swift+. If by "American", he means "Captive Korean imports badged by General Motors", I suppose he has a point. He also fails to consider depreciation and maintenance expenses, which tend to be much higher on domestics. Still, it's quite an interesting spreadsheet to review if you're a numbers geek like I am. McKenna also points out that some of the cheapest vehicles are not what you'd expect, noting that three pick-ups, The Ford Ranger, Chevrolet Colorado and the Mazda B2300, all beat out the Toyota Prius. Speaking of the Prius, where did it end up? In 67th place, just edging out the V6 Mustang by $0.04/100 km of operation.

Finally, it looks like the other shoe is dropping. Nine days after Toyota slashed prices on 16 of its Canadian models, its greatest emulator, Hyundai, has followed suit. CanadianDriver.com reports that Hyundai has recently clawed back the prices the Tiburon and the Tuscon L by $3,000 and $4,200 respectively. So how does this stack up against U.S. pricing? According to Hyundai.com, a new base-level Tiburon now costs $15,995 in Canada vs. $17,025 south of the border. The Tuscon is now cheaper north of the border, at $16,995 versus $17,235 in America. Before you Americans start drafting your business plan around a Canadian domestic market importation scheme, beware: the base Sonata is still more expensive in Canada, relieving of you $18,995 Canadian or $17,670 American. Now that Chrysler, Toyota and Hyundai have put the squeeze on dealers at other car companies' franchises, we expect many more "adjustments" to come. [thanks to Dave McDonald for the tip]