As Gregg Easterbrook once famously proclaimed, torture numbers and they’ll confess to anything. As an accountant, I’ve always considered numbers to be a lot more malleable than most math-challenged people believe; they’ll confess the truth long before an interrogator gets out the metaphorical water board. For example, a simple analysis on a small subset of GM and Toyota’s voluminous public data can yield important insights into their relative corporate personalities. By looking at both company’s 2006 U.S. Sales and Inventory figures, the numbers sing like a canary.
Posts By: Samir Syed
Even as Japan's Nikkei index rose by a modest 0.3 percent in one day, Bloomberg.com reports that the market capitalizations of both ToMoCo and Honda declined. Their value sank by 1.2 percent and 1.4 percent respectively on their home turf trading index. Bloomberg's analysts attribute the decline in stock values to the fact that both companies do a significant part of their business in the currently bearish U.S. market. More specifically, they believe that slumping real estate prices in the United States will lead to a consumer spending slow down in the world's largest economy, which will reduce new car sales. As goes the U.S., so goes the world?
A marketing guru once told me that many companies sell themselves based on their weakest attributes. By playing up what the market perceives as their limitations, the company seeks to reverse “misconceptions” which prevent greater popularity. The strategy is what Hitler called “The Big Lie:” a falsehood of such size and splendor that no one can believe that someone had “the impudence to distort the truth so infamously.” This explains why Ford Canada used the slogan “Quality is Job 1” while building the Tempo and Escort. It also illuminates automakers’ greenwashing.
After a speeder killed toddler Bianca Leduc while she was playing in her baby-sitter’s backyard in a residential neighborhood west of Montreal, the Quebec government has decided to rush through the mother of all traffic safety bills. CTV reports the details: hand-held cell phones will be banned, the legal BAL (blood-alcohol level) drops from 0.08 to 0.05 (bringing it inline with other Canadian provinces), those caught under the influence will have their license suspended for three months (up from one month), 15 intersections will get red light cameras, all new drivers will have to take driving lessons and operate under probationary permits (not just those under 25), speeding fines in residential zones will double, license points for speeders will double and there’ll be a new offense called “major speeding” (which leads to an automatic license suspension).
First Porsche, now Chrysler. The Toronto Star reports that Chrysler has drastically boosted its incentives on Canadian vehicles. The move comes in response to the soaring loonie, which has inspired thousands of new car buyers to journey south of the border for cheaper wheels. The Pentastar's Canadian franchisees will now sell vehicles with up to CA$5,250 on the hood. Even the wildly successful (ahem… in Chrysler terms) 300 sedan has not been spared; Canadian dealers are offering CA$4,250 in incentives for the base model and a jaw-dropping CA$9k for the Hemi-powered 300C. The article notes that even BMW and Mercedes, two brands that have been traditionally allergic to the idea of discounts, have been forced to throw down the cash. With 95% of Canadians living within 160 km (100 miles) of the U.S. border, it was only a matter of time before the market would begin "adjusting." Meanwhile, Canadians who bought their cars in country at full whack can't be too happy about the hit to their car's residual values.
Whenever General Motors announces a hot, sexy sports car that’s supposed to dethrone BMW, a little piece of me dies. That’s the part of me that grew-up watching Smoky and The Bandit (over and over), yearning for my very own Trans Am adorned with a giant, screaming chicken. Nowadays, it seems everyone in The General’s army is allowed to have a bona-fide sports car except, ironically, their sports division. That ain’t right.
Agencie France-Presse (AFP) reports that Toyota is recalling 472k Japanese Domestic Market (JDM) vehicles for a faulty fuel systems. Although no related accidents or incidents have been reported to date, the defect could cause gas line leakages. All told, the company's recalling eight different JDM models, including the flagship Toyota Crown, which occupies the same slot in Toyota's JDM line-up as the Camry occupies in the good ol' USA. Arriving hot on the heels of Toyota's decline in Consumer Reports' reliability ratings, the news is sure to arm the pro-domestic crowd with more ammunition against the automotive world's new king of the hill. Interestingly, the recall includes models manufactured from 1999 – 2004, when Toyota was thought to be the far-and-away leader in reliability and initial quality.
The Canadian dollar is back. After a thirty-year slump, the “loonie” is now staring eye-to-eye at the American greenback. The strong Canadian economy, the worldwide thirst for oil, and George Bush using The Fed as a money tree have all converged to push the Canadian dollar skyward. The meteoric rise of the dollar has given Canadians incredible arbitrage opportunities with American products; especially cars. The Canadian car industry ain’t pleased– and for good reason.
Late last century, GM decided to fight the rising tide of uninteresting front wheel-drive cars Japanese cars by building their own uninteresting front wheel-drive cars. Three decades of trying to out-Japan the Japanese yielded the pinnacle of American wrong-wheel technology: The Monte Carlo SS. Now that GM’s hulking trucks have had their day, the automaker is busy hawking its lackluster though miserly Cobavion. This despite the fact that one of the best small cars GM has ever produced sits unloved in Pontiac lots across America. Go figure.
I sat anxiously in a showroom Mercedes CLS while the salesman processed my paperwork for a test drive. Even in repose, the CLS is a magnificent machine. Soaking in that heady blend of luxury and gravitas, I wondered if my spin in the B200 (available in Canada and Europe) would capture any of that Mercedes quintessence. Sometimes, brand extension works (Bentley Continental GT) and sometimes, it doesn't (VW Phaeton). So does the B 200 fit in Herr Doktor Daimler’s pantheon of pomp and circumstance?
Chrysler has just unleashed its new minivan, hoping to jump-start sales in a sector that's been shrinking for a decade. During this slide, the Honda Odyssey and Toyota Sienna have moved their people movers upmarket, banking healthy margins on the back of tremendous customer loyalty. Meanwhile, Kia entered the fray with a more budget-minded alternative, the Sedona. Although Kia missed the obvious marketing opportunity (My my my, Sedona), the not-so-fancy shmancy minivan has proven itself a sales winner. Why?
The American pickup truck wars have become a series of increasingly pitched battles. Even as the pickup market tanks, the main players have regrouped, refreshed and rejoined the fight. As we await the new Dodge Ram pickup, a major candidate for the "I coulda been a contender" award, questions must be asked. Does the current Ram have what it takes to hold the fort against the [ostensibly] reliable Toyota Tundra, the built-like-a-rock Chevy Silverado and the tough luxury Ford F-150? What battles will the new Dodge Ram have to win?
Bloomberg reports that Honda's first quarter earnings are up 16% over last year. Honda President President Takeo Fukui attributes the rise in profits to several factors, ranging from the weak Japanese yen making exports cheaper to the success of the new CR-V and Civic in capturing U.S. market share from Detroit's own. While incentives have reduced operating profits in the U.S., the overall outlook is still healthy- primarily due to an increase of 9.5% in overseas production. Which is just as well. Bloomberg also reports that Japan's domestic automotive output may fall, as Riken (Japan's largest maker of piston rings for engines) shut down production after the July 16 earthquake in Niigata prefecture. Pre-quake, Honda's domestic production had already fallen 4.8 percent.
Poor Ford Motor Company! Even when FoMoCo produces a good car, the product is still weighed down by the stigma of Tempos and Escorts of yore. In his latest column, MSNBC 's Roland Jones takes stock of the Ford Fusion's dismal sales in June 2007 (12,435 examples sold), what it means for FoMoCo, and how they can generate Impala-like numbers (35,489 examples sold). In this bread-and-butter segment so thoroughly dominated by Camcords, Jones asserts that people don't want an import-clone from a domestic automaker. He's right. Fighting Toyota and Honda on their own turf is a losing battle for Detroit. The market has shown a willingness to buy boldly-styled, rear-wheel drive Americana from America. That’s what Ford should build.
Fair disclosure: I wanted to love the Chevrolet Cobalt SS Supercharged (SS-S). My first car was America's Beetle: the Chevette. Watching the transplants take over the U.S. compact car market, I've always hoped The Big 2.8 would raise their game and kick some serious small car butt. To their credit, The General really swung for the fences with the SS-S. Unfortunately, it's game over; the Cobalt SS-S can't meet 2008 emissions regulations. As GM sends the Cobalt SS-S to the big dugout in the sky, is it love's labor lost or no big deal?
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