What a difference a month makes. The euphoria created by October's U.S. sales gains ended abruptly; November numbers fell like autumn leaves. Total light vehicle sales sank 1.6 percent compared to November last year, down 3.4 percent year-to-date (YTD). U.S. light truck sales did a November nose-dive, down 6.8 percent if you include crossovers, down 15.5 percent if you don't. In this inhospitable climate, Toyota sales shot by Chevrolet for the month, leaving Ford in the dust. While Chevy should end the year in the number two slot, Ford's stuck at number three, accounting for just 13 percent of the market. And once again, The Big 2.8's combined market share fell below fifty percent. So, it was more of the same, only more so.

Passenger Cars

Chevrolet Impala sales sank 2.5 percent compared to November of 2006, tumbling below November 2005's total. On the positive side, they're cruising on the big Mo, up 11.2 percent YTD. After four consecutive months of diminishing sales, Chrysler 300 sales finally rose 6.9 percent. YTD. In the reverse of the Impala, 300 sales are down 13.1 percent YTD. The Ford Fusion made a strong showing, ending the month up a whopping 38.8 percent over last November, a 4.8 percent improvement for the year. The Toyota Camry continued its slow, steady growth, gaining 3.6 percent on the month and 6.3 percent YTD.

Pickup Trucks

Incentives or no, the collapsing U.S. housing market and the new gas price reality has whacked pickup truck sales, but good. Chevrolet's Silverado dropped 14.1 percent, down 3.3 percent YTD. The incentives king, the Dodge Ram, didn't fare quite as badly, dropping "only" 12 percent for the month. Ram sales are down 1.5 percent YTD. Ford's F-Series cash cow's still running dry. November sales were the second lowest since November 2005, down 11.7 percent. YTD, F-Series sales slumped 12.4 percent. The new Toyota Tundra racked-up a 42.2 percent increase over last November, up 58.3 percent YTD. Yes but– November Tundra sales were the lowest since April.

Truck-Based SUVs

Large SUV sales continue their slide backwards. After the best sales month in a year and a half (October), the Chevrolet Tahoe dropped 31 percent, its worst month since January of this year. Sales are down 7.7 percent YTD. The Dodge Durango had its best showing in three months, but still sank 46.3 percent on the month, 35.1 percent YTD. Ford's once-bestselling Explorer continues its seemingly endless downwards trajectory, finishing the month 18.8 percent below last year, down 23.5 percent YTD. Toyota's 4Runner dropped 17.5 percent from last November, 14.8 percent for the year.

CUVs

The Chevrolet Equinox is showing its age. Sales plummeted 32.6 percent from last November, down 21.8 percent YTD. The marked-for-death Pacifica ended the month 35.5 percent below last November's total, down 28.8 percent YTD. Ford's Escape continues to give The Blue Oval Boyz reason to live. Sales are up 22.3 percent from last year, 6.7 percent YTD. Toyota's RAV-4 dropped to its lowest level since February, but it's still 8.1 percent ahead of last November, up 15 percent YTD.

New Models

The GMC Acadia is still the Lambda king, accounting for 50 percent of the GM crossover platform's total sales. Acadia sales grew by 275 units in November. Ford Edge sales fell by 1500 units from October, but sales are still above the monthly average for the year. The Jeep Compass staunched a three-month wound, ending the month with 443 more sales than October.

Total Sales

As expected November was a cruel month for new car sales. GM 's sales were down 11 percent from last November, down 6.1 percent for the year. Thanks to fleet sales, Chrysler didn't fare quite as badly, but they're still down 2.1 percent for November, down 3.4 percent YTD. Ford had mixed results, showing a surprising 0.6 percent increase over last November. But they still have an annual deficit of 12.1 percent. Toyota finished in the black, barely–  they were up from last November only 0.3 percent. They're still up 3.6 percent YTD but that number has dwindled little by little each month. 

The Future

To end the year with an overall sales increases, Ford would require a major miracle. With big enough discounts, GM and Chrysler could conceivably finish on a high note– in sales if not profits. Toyota will do whatever it takes to make Tundra's sales projections, and end the year on the positive side of the sales leader. Whatever happens, there's bound to be a nasty New Year's hangover, as the carmakers either continue deep discounts or take it on the chin. 

October was a tricky month with few treats for the auto industry. Overall, total U.S. sales just about broke even, ending-up with a 1.2 percent increase over October of last year. Year-to-date (YTD) sales sank 2.5 percent. Ford and Chrysler were the biggest losers; both domestic automaker suffered big decreases from the month last year and continuing to drop in the annual numbers. Here's how our bellwether models finished the month.

Passenger Cars

After a brief peak in August, Impala sales have been edging down, with a 1.6 per cent decrease for the month. However, thanks to robust spring sales, it's still up 12.6 percent YTD over 2006. Chrysler 300 sales have almost flatlined, sinking 15.2 percent below October last year. Annual sales show the same trend, with a 15 per cent decline YTD. The Fusion remains one of the few bright stars in Ford's fading firmament. It's up 13.1 per cent for the month and 2.3 per cent on the year. Toyota's stalwart Camry faltered a bit in October, dropping 0.2 percent from last October; for the year, though, it's up 6.4 per cent.

Pickup Trucks

It looks like pickups are slowing down. With only moderate sales incentives, Chevy's Silverado finished the month seven per cent lower than last year, down 2.4 per cent YTD. Even with substantial cash on the hood, the hoary Dodge Ram fell 12.5 per cent for the month, and 0.6 percent for the year. Ford's F-series also had another bad month, ending 7.5 per cent below last year; year to date they lost 12.5 per cent. The Toyota Tundra remains much more popular than its [relatively] diminutive predecessor. Sales rose 77.9 per cent for month and ascended by 59.8 per cent for the year.

Truck-Based SUVs

Chevy's Tahoe bucked the downward trend for large SUVs with a 31.9 per cent increase over last October. It's down 5.4 per cent for the year, but that's nothing compared with Durango. Sales pf the once-popular Dodge SUV fell 66.5 per cent for the month, and 34 per cent on the year. The Ford Explorer was somewhat better off with "just" a 18.3 per cent decline for the month, and a 23.8 per cent drop YTD. Toyota's 4Runner showed a surprising 15.3 per cent jump over last October, but total sales were down 14.5 per cent from last year.

CUVs

Even though CUVs are this year's big thing, the Chevy Equinox was down 19 per cent from last October, down 21 per cent for the year. Chrysler's doomed Pacifica showed similar declines: down 12.5 per cent for the month and 28.1 per cent on the year. The Escape was another bright spot in Ford's otherwise dismal world, with a 26.8 per cent increase over last October, and a jump of 5.5 per cent over last year. The Toyota RAV-4 fared even better. Sales were up 31.2 per cent for the month and 15.6 per cent on the year.

New Models

The Acadia remains the most popular of the Lambda triplets with 100 more sales in October than September.  GMC's shifted 59K Acadias this year. Ford's Edge sold 3.5K more units over September, with 103.8K sold YTD. The worst of the TTAC's "Ten Worst"– the Jeep Compass— dropped 600 units from last month. Despite the hype, Jeep's managed to move 33.5K Compass this year.

Total Sales

October is traditionally a low sales month, as the old model year winds down and the new one gets underway. Nonetheless, GM managed to finish the month 3.4 per cent ahead of last October. However, for the year to date, they're down 5.7 per cent. Chrysler has been below their 2006 sales line since June. For October, they finished 8.9 percent below last October; that's down 8.9 total for the year. Strong showings from Focus, Escape and Edge couldn't offset Ford's dependence on truck sales. Total sales fell 9.3 per cent below last month, and 13 per cent year to date. Toyota continued their seemingly inexorable climb up the sales charts– up 4.5 per cent from last month, up 3.9 from last year.

The Future

The times they are a-changing. Will the new UAW contracts reinvigorate The Big 2.8? Will Chrysler's slice its way to a sustainable product portfolio? Will the Chevy Malibu be the hit Bob Lutz thinks it will, and/or will it cannibalize Impala sales? Is Ford's redesign of the F-Series too little too late? Will the mortgage crisis and other macro-economic issues kneecap the US or world automotive industry? As Bette Davis might say, "Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride."

September wasn't kind to the auto industry. Total U.S. light vehicle sales ended the month 2.9 percent below September 2006. The year-to-date (YTD) news wasn't very encouraging either; sales for the first nine months of 2007 are 2.8 percent below the same time last year. Of The Big 2.8, only GM finished the month (barely) in the black. Ford, Chrysler, and Toyota all posted declines compared with last September. Looking at our four-wheeled sampler, separating the winners from the losers is a matter of seeing who lost less. 

Passenger Cars

The bad news: Chevy's Impala dropped about 1800 sales from August. The good news: the sales stalwart's up six percent compared to September last year; up 13.9 percent YTD. Chrysler's once-mighty 300 ain't so mighty no mo'. September sales dropped 13.2 percent, while annual sales fell 14.9 percent. Fusion sales offered Ford a glimmer of hope, rising 9.6 percent for the month, racking-up a 1.3 percent gain for the year. Toyota's killer Camry continues its sales growth, up 5.7 percent on the month and 7.1 percent for the year.

Pickup Trucks

Rebates reigned supreme. Despite slapping more cash on the hood and even more generous financing incentives, Chevy Silverado sales rose just one percent for the month. YTD, sales are down 1.9 percent. Dodge is also throwing cash at Ram buyers, which helped jack-up sales by 20 percent. Annual sales are up just 0.6, but it's still a victory (of sorts). Smaller cash rebates and not-quite-so-cut-rate financing aren't helping Ford's F-Series; sales were off a whopping 20.8 percent, running 12.9 percent total behind last year. Toyota revived its incentive campaigns on the Tundra, sending the texas-built pickup on its way to meeting its first-year sales goal of 200k units. Tundra sales rose 55.2 percent for the month and 57.9 percent YTD.

Truck-Based SUVs

Although Chevy's Tahoe sales for the month leaped by an amazing 52.2 percent (fleets?), YTD sales slipped 9.2 percent. Dodge's Durango's sales are MIA, sinking a titanic 49.6 percent; it'down 29.8 percent YTD. The Ford Explorer was almost as lost, dropping 31.9 percent, losing 24.2 percent YTD. Toyota's not immune to the SUV exodus: 4Runner sales sank 2.7 percent, down 16.8 percent YTD.

CUVs
 
After a brief rally in August, Chevy's Equinox dropped almost 5k units in September. It's down 4.1 percent for the month, and 21.1 percent for the year. The Pacifica is all at sea. September sales of Chrysler's hoary CUV are down a staggering 43.8 percent, and 29.6 percent below the first nine months of 2006. Ford's Escape helped The Blue Oval Boyz escape bankruptcy for another month. Escape sales rose 10.3 percent  on the month and up 3.8 percent on the year. Toyota redesigned RAV-4 rocks. Sales increased 24.8 percent, 14.1 percent YTD.

New Models

Overall, GM's Lambda triplets (Acadia, Enclave, Outlook) racked-up over 12k sales in September. GMC's Acadia, up 800 units from August, continues to be the most popular of GM's Lambda CUVs. The Ford Edge continues edging-up from its drastic drop in July, with an increase of 1500 sales over August. Jeep's Compass wasn't so fortunate. It dropped 800 sales from August.

Total Sales
 
Although September sales fell below August's peak, GM finished the month 0.3 percent above the previous year. They're still below 2006 for the YTD, with a 6.6 percent drop. Chrysler and Ford both ended the month 5.4 and 20.4 percent respectively below September 2006. Chrysler is down three percent YTD and Ford is 13.3 percent lower YTD. Toyota finished below 2006 for the second month in a row, this time with a 4.4 percent deficit. However, YTD, they show a 3.8 percent increase.

The Future

As the 2007 model year winds down– with the usual clearance sales and the '08 models flooding into the showrooms– GM begins the new year with a new UAW contract. Under the new agreement, they're sure to force encourage a lot of their experienced workers to retire, resulting in a large labor turnover. What impact these changes will have on production, prices or quality remains to be seen. All three domestic automakers are saying the new union contracts will give them parity with Toyota and the other transplants. How quickly this will translate into better designs and an improved product– if at all– anyone's guess. 

August's U.S. sales results are in. Upon their release, GM crowed about their market-bucking triumph– neglecting to mention the fact that 25 percent of those sales sailed with the fleets. Meanwhile, Chrysler blamed its sales decline on diminished fleet flogging. Ford was "encouraged by sales of their crossover vehicles" (i.e. stuck in the dog house). And Toyota pinned their sales drop on the subprime lending crisis and a supply-line-interrupting Japanese earthquake. Whatever. Bottom line: August wasn't kind to many of the models we're tracking on your behalf.

Passenger Cars

Despite GM's hefty commercial sales, their Chevrolet Impala fleet queen fell 4.5 percent below last August's sales total. Year-to-date (YTD), Impala sales rose 14.8 percent over 2006. Chrysler must have stopped dumping 300s into the fleets; sales plunged almost 23 percent from last August, down 15 percent YTD. The Ford Fusion dropped 19 percent from last August, although holding steady with a 0.38 percent YTD increase. Camry sales leveled off, up one percent over last August. The longer-term trend is upwards, with a 7.3 percent increase YTD. 

Pickup Trucks

After ramping up Silverado incentives, the pickup's sales picked up by 16K units from last August. While that's a whopping 31 percent surge, YTD they're down 2.2 percent. Huge rebates didn't help the Dodge Ram; sales fell 5.5 percent, down 1.3 percent YTD. Ford offered small-to-moderate rebates on their F-Series pickups, failing to forestall a 9.9 percent tumble, dragging the model down 12 percent YTD. 

Toyota backed off incentives on Tundra. Sales dropped by 5K units from July to August. But the new Tundra is still kicking the old Tundra's ass. Sales rose 69 percent from last August, up 58 percent YTD. 

Truck-Based SUVs

Sales of "traditional" SUVs continue to slide as fuel-conscious consumers make the move to CUVs and family sedans. Sales of Chevrolet's Tahoe went down by eight percent from last August, 14.8 percent YTD. The Dodge Durango plunged 41 percent from last August, down 27 percent year to date. The Ford Explorer's drop wasn't quite as precipitous but it was still down 26 percent from last August and 23 percent YTD. Toyota 4Runner sales were actually up slightly, rising one percent from last August. But they're still down 18.4 percent YTD. 

CUVs

As predicted, SUV refugees are igniting sales of CUVs; as the former drops, the latter rises. The Chevrolet Equinox helped power GM's August increase with a 13.5 percent gain. That said, Equinox sales fell by 23 percent YTD. Chrysler's Pacifica continues to tempt the executioner's blade, with sales down 48 percent from last August and 27.6 percent YTD.  

Ford continues to pin its hopes on the Escape. It didn't fail them. Sales of FoMoCo's cute-ute rose by 4.4 percent over last August, up 3.2 percent year to date. The redesigned-for-‘07 Toyota RAV-4 continues to sell well; August sales were up by 11 percent, 13 percent YTD. 

New Models

All three of our new-for-07 models had been dropping since May. All three showed some recovery in August. The GMC Acadia picked up almost 200 additional sales from July– but still clocked in some 3.2K below May's peak. Even so, the Acadia remains the most popular of GM's Lambda-platform CUVs, selling 5.8K in August (vs. Enclave's 3.8K and Outlook's 3.2K). The Ford Edge and Jeep Compass both showed strong gains over July, each selling around 1100 additional units.  

Total Sales

As most anyone who follows the auto industry knows, GM's total sales were up six percent from the same month last year. However, even with that strong sales spurt, they're down 7.4 percent YTD, with production cuts set to slice both sales and share even deeper. 

Chrysler's down six percent from last August, down 14 percent YTD. While decreased fleet sales certainly played a part in the decline, we're thinking a combination of uncertainty over the future of the company and a truck/SUV-heavy product line were more significant factors.  

Ford's in a similar situation and their numbers show it. The Blue Oval Boyz' August sales sank by 14.4 percent; a 12.5 percent drop YTD. Proving that even a perennial sales champ isn't entirely immune to market forces and economic meta-fluctuations, Toyota's August sales dropped 2.8 percent. But they're still up 4.9 percent YTD. 

The Future

GM's set to introduce their latest Hail Mary model: the Chevrolet Malibu. Honda's refreshed Accord should keep the ‘Bu from conquesting quality-conscious buyers, and gives Toyota's Camry buyers something to think about. 

Chrysler's in flux; their new CEO's still figuring out what to keep and what to cut. Ford's still relying on their truck/SUV/CUV lineup to carry them. And Toyota's juggernaut chugs on.

All of them (and the rest) are sailing straight into economic headwinds. It's been a tough year for the U.S. auto industry– that's about to get a whole lot tougher.

Just as American automakers were trying to wean themselves off of fleet sales, just as The Big 2.8 were looking to reduce incentives and bounce back from a slow June, July. In July, practically every U.S. economic indicator took a downturn, from housing starts to the stock market. While American auto sales didn't plummet, they took a major hit. Even Toyota was not immune from the fallout; the numbers rolling in proving that ToMoCo's not invulnerable to a bad market. Damage report Spock.

Passenger Cars

After climbing steadily since October of last year, Chevrolet Impala sales sank back down to their pre-sales spurt level, 20 percent below where they were last year. Ford Fusion sales dropped 31 percent from last year. Thanks to robust sales earlier this year, it's still four percent higher year-to-date than last year.  Sales of Chrysler's 300 decreased 15 percent for the month, 14 percent for the year. The Toyota Camry dropped about one percent from July 2006, but it's still up over eight percent year-to-date. None of these models are heavily discounted at the moment; if sales continue to fall, incentives are sure to rise.

Pickup Trucks

Chevrolet Silverado sales rose by about 2K units from June. Comparing July '07 to July ‘06, sales of GM's erstwhile turnaround tiger took a beating, down almost 30 percent. Year-to-date, they shrank by almost seven percent. Perpetually buoyed by incentives, sales of the Dodge Ram pickup fell 10 percent from last July, but less than one percent for the year. Ford isn't offering big incentives on the F-Series ; sales are down 18 percent from last year and 23 percent year-to-date. 

Taking a page from their competitors' playbooks, Toyota continued and even increased incentives on the Tundra . It worked. Tundra sales were up a whopping 125 percent from July of last year and 56 percent year-to-date. Based on the first seven months' sales, Toyota will have no problem reaching their first-year sales goal of 200K new Tundras. Still, it'll be interesting to see if sales drop as they start backing off on the rebates.

Truck-based SUVs

As more drivers make the switch from gas-guzzling trucks to slightly less thirsty CUVs and cute utes, the market for traditional SUVs continues to evaporate. The Chevrolet Tahoe showed a slight increase (500 units) from June, but sales are running 12 percent below last July. Year-to-date, the Tahoe's down 16 percent. 

The Ford Explorer is lost in the wilderness. Sales are down 30 percent month-to-month and 23 percent year-to-date. Ye Olde Dodge Durango took the biggest hit, with July's sales less than half of June's. The Durango took a 26 percent hit both from last July and overall year to date. Toyota 4Runner's sales were actually up a bit from June, but down 29 percent from last July and 21 percent for the year.

CUVs

CUV sales were down– with one surprising exception. After dropping steadily since March, the Chevrolet Equinox enjoyed a 50 percent increase from June. Unfortunately, it's still nowhere near last year's sales levels, dropping 42 percent on the month and 29 percent on the year.

The Ford Escape didn't. It experienced a sharp drop from June's sales. Still sales remain slightly ahead of last year, up two percent for the month and three percent for the year. The Chrysler Pacifica didn't [sea] fare nearly as well. Sales were down from June, from July '06 (35 percent) and year-to-date (25 percent).

Although the redesigned Toyota RAV-4 's sales year-to-date are up 13 percent, they were down almost two percent from last July.

New Models

The brand new models weren't immune to the pressure drop. The Jeep Compass shed about 800 units from June, the GMC Acadia was down 1400 units, and the Ford Edge fell 3000 units. GM has yet to offer incentives on their Lambda CUVs. Ford and Chrysler have small rebates on the compass and Edge. Again, if sales don't pick up, deal sweeteners are a-comin'.

Total Sales

Total vehicle sales in the U.S. market were down in July. Not only were they reduced from June, they were also down from July of last year. Toyota showed a seven percent drop from last July, Chrysler Group dropped eight percent, Ford was down 19 percent and GM was off 22 percent. It's not quite as bad year-to-date. Ford is off 12 percent for the first seven months of the year, GM is down nine percent and Chrysler is only down two percent. Toyota is six percent ahead of last year. 

The Future

Over the past few weeks, Chrysler has announced an extended warranty, GM ramped-up the rebates and Ford is offering low interest rates. It'll be interesting to see if any of this will help sales recover over the next few months, or if the downward spiral will continue.

The June auto industry’s sales results are in. The numbers have sent shock waves throughout Detroit— a town that’s become increasingly familiar with seismic events. Although sales tend to slip slightly as the model year winds down, these figures are stimulating some serious hand-wringing amongst The Big 2.8. When you factor in/out fleet sales, the future looks bleak.

Passenger Cars

Ford Fusion and Toyota Camry sales slid slightly from last month, but their mid-year report card’s looking good. For the first half of 2007, both Camry and Fusion sales are up 10 percent over the same period last year. Comparing June ’06 to June ‘07, Camry sales rose by 12.5 percent, while sales of Ford’s “hecho en Mexico” midsizer declined some nine percent. 

The Chevrolet Impala and Chrysler 300 both showed significant increases over last June. The Impala is up by almost 17 percent, while the 300 ascended by 29 percent. There’s a big mid-year divergence; during the last six months, Impala sales rose by almost 25 percent while 300 sales sank by 14 percent. 

Keep in mind that both models are fleet queens. In 2007, 46 percent of the 300’s and 44 percent of the Impala’s total sales sailed with the fleets. This does not bode well for either model’s long term prospects.

Pickup Trucks

As predicted, a weak housing market, high gas prices and the new Toyota Tundra’s debut have sparked an incentives war. The trend looks set to drive sales— and steal profit— all summer long.

The newcomer’s sales increased 4K from May, and jumped 146 percent compared to last June. ToMoCo’s rebates and special financing (average incentive: $5083) are working a treat. 

Incentives didn’t help Chevy’s Silverado (average incentives: $3064) . Sales of GM’s turnaround dream dropped 23.5 percent from last June. Year-to-date sales are down almost two percent. 

Thanks to huge incentives (averaging $6831), the Dodge Ram  is holding its own. Sales were down less than four percent from last June. So far this year sales are up a little over one percent. 

Sales of Ford’s F-Series (average incentive: $4272) were down less than one percent from last June. Over the past six months, sales sank over 11 percent compared to the previous year. 

Truck-Based SUVs

SUV sales are still taking it on the chin. The Dodge Durango showed a 900-unit increase over May, but slid over 28 percent from last June, and almost 26 percent year to date.

The Ford Explorer lost only about 100 sales from May, but sank 23 percent from last June, and 22 percent year to date.

Chevrolet Tahoe sales slid 14 percent from last June and 16 percent over the last six months. Toyota’s 4Runner is down almost 28 percent against last June and almost 20 percent year to date. 

CUVs

Once again, sales of older designs fell well below last year’s levels. The Chevrolet Equinox dropped 1.5K units from May, losing a whopping 53 percent from last June. So far, the Equinox is down 26 percent year to date versus last year. 

Chrysler Pacifica's June sales climbed 500 units from May, but sank 41 percent versus June ’06, and lost 24 percent in the six month comparison. (Some 52 percent of this year’s Pacifica total has gone to fleets .)

Ford Escape sales are 33 percent above last June’s, and three percent ahead of the first six months of last year. The Toyota RAV-4 showed an 11 percent growth, with a 16 percent increase over the first half of 2006.

The new-for-‘07 CUVs showed slight dips in June. Most notably, sales of the box-fresh GMC Acadia were almost 2K lower in May. The Ford Edge and Jeep Compass held fast, dropping by fewer than 300 units.

Total Sales and Fleet Sales

Overall, all four manufacturers detailed here (Ford, GM, Chrysler and Toyota ) lost sales from May. Comparing total sales in June ’06 to total sales in June ’07, all but one crapped out. GM was down 21 percent, Ford dropped 8 percent and Chrysler lost 1.4 percent. Toyota’s sales grew by 10 percent.  (Year-to-date cumulative: GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota.)

Over the six month period, GM is down seven percent, Ford is down 11 percent, and Chrysler is down 1.4 percent. Toyota is up 8.7 percent.  

Chrysler’s relative success may be Phyrric. During the last six months, fleet sales accounted for almost 45 percent of Chrysler's total passenger car sales. The artist formerly known as DCX also designated tens of thousands of leftover '06 models as loaners– for one day– and then moved them into their used car inventory. 

This is serious. GM’s June market share slumped to 22.17 percent. That’s the lowest level since the company passed that mark on their way UP to their '60's high water mark (48.3 percent share). If sales don’t pick up, The Big 2.8 will enter September (and the history books) with a combined U.S. market share of less than 50 percent.   

Last month, I field tested a new methodology for analyzing the American car market. Reader feedback on TTAC’s month-by-month sales charts of “key” U.S. models was overwhelmingly positive. Your most excellent comments and insightful methodological suggestions were noted, logged and, where possible, incorporated. OK, so, May car sales were the highest so far this calendar year. Without further ado, here’s how our 19 models floated within this rising tide.

Passenger Cars

Taken as a whole, U.S. passenger car sales showed a sharp upturn in May. The Chevrolet Impala , Chrysler 300 and Toyota Camry all rebounded from their April dip. Ford did not share in this good fortune. After climbing steadily, Fusion sales dropped below 2006 levels for the first time since last November.

The Camry’s still the segment leader, but the Impala’s coming on fast. The mid-sized Canadian is now selling more briskly than it did during GM’s epic “fire sale for everyone” back in 2005 and was GM's best-selling passenger car in May. That said, GM lavished $1500 in incentives on the Impala– the highest amount they offer on a Chevrolet passenger car. 

Pickup Trucks

For the first time since February, Silverado sales have topped last year’s levels. The good news comes with a minor caveat: GM is still producing and selling the “Classic” (non GMT900-based) Silverado, a cheaper model that’s buoyed by $2k to $3K rebates and dealer incentives. Still, the new model’s leading the charge.

Meanwhile, assisted by massive incentives (up to $5K rebates plus dealer incentives) the Dodge Ram also bested last year’s number. Chryslerberus is planning a redesigned Ram for 2009 with diesel engines across the board. They’ll most likely increase the incentives to keep current sales from tanking in anticipation of the new model.

Ford's F-Series continues to show lower sales than in previous years. Look for Ford to add to its $3k rebate as the Glass House Gang fight to keep their perennial best-seller at the top of the sales charts.

Tundra sales showed another record month. It remains to be seen if the model’s camshaft problems will damage the Tundra’s momentum, or if Toyota’s rep for bulletproof build quality will reduce the issue to a minor bump in the road.

In any case, the Toyota’s entry into a declining market has had the anticipated effect: pickup truck margins are down across the board.

Truck-Based SUVs

Tahoe and Explorer customers shrugged off high gas prices. Tahoe’s May sales have remained steady for the past three years. Explorer sales reached the highest level since last September.  

Dodge and Toyota weren’t so lucky; Durango and 4Runner sales both continue their downward trajectory. The Durango has practically flat-lined in the mid-4K range, while 4Runner sales are the lowest they’ve been since last October.

Small SUV/CUVs

CUV sales split into two distinct camps: the old and the new. Sales of the elderly Chevrolet Equinox and Chrysler Pacifica fell well below those of previous years. If Chevy and Chrysler want to remain competitive in this hot market segment, they have to hit refresh in a big way, and fast.

Sales of the recently refreshed Ford Escape and Toyota RAV-4 rose sharply. The more boldly grilled Escape hit an all-time high in May, with the gas – electric hybrid model accounting for 14 percent of the total. RAV-4 sales were up by more than 2K units over last month, and against the same month last year.

New Models

All three of the new-for-‘07 models I’m tracking showed increases in May. The Jeep Compass rebounded slightly above last month’s performance, but still remains below the curve for the year. The GMC Acadia continues almost straight-line steady growth. After an inexplicable dip last month, Ford Edge sales are back, and they ain’t bad. 

Total Sales

GM, Chrysler and Toyota all saw higher sales in May than in April, and with higher sales than May ’06. Even though Ford showed an increase from April, they still remain well below the previous years’ sales levels. (For cumulative sales YTD, click here: GM, Chrysler, Ford, Toyota .) But the numbers mask a worrying development. 

In spite of The Big 2.8’s pledge to wean themselves from incentives, they haven’t. In May, GM’s incentives rose 6.1 percent (year on year) to a $2,950 per vehicle average. Ford’s incentives rose by 4.6 percent to $4,040 per vehicle. Chrysler's incentives soared by 7.1 percent to an average of $4,178 per vehicle. (Toyota’s incentives averaged $1,140 per vehicle.)

This does not bode well for Detroit. In 2006, GM and Chrysler’s North American operations lost an average of $1,436 and $1,072 respectively per vehicle. Ford lost a whopping $5,234 per vehicle.  In contrast, Toyota and Honda made $1,200 on every vehicle sold. The greater Detroit’s incentives, the lower their profits. Or, let’s face it, the greater their losses. It’s still early daze, but 2007 is turning out to be a “make or break” year for The Big 2.8.

This month, a new approach. I’ve picked examples from the Big 2.5 and Toyota in four categories: passenger car, full-sized pickup truck, truck-based SUV and small SUV/CUV. I've also chosen one brand-new model from each of the 2.5. If this approach finds favor, we’ll follow these 19 vehicles through the calendar year, comparing their U.S. sales each month with sales from 2005 and 2006. I've also shown major rebates ($5K and over) and the "employee pricing" incentives from 2005.  Once we’ve looked at how well these key vehicles are selling, we’ll look at overall sales to see how the individual models’ sales track with the overall sales trends from their makers. Capisco? Here we go!

[Note: Clicking on the links below will bring up a graph showing sales for that vehicle for the past two years and 2007 YTD. Use your browser's "back" button to return to the article. The graphs show sales for each month. Green links with double underlines are not linked to the graphs.] 

Here are the charts for last year's best selling passenger cars from their respective manufacturers: Impala (GM), Fusion (Ford), Chrysler 300 (Chrysler Group) and last but not least by a long run, Camry (Toyota Motor Sales USA).

Passenger cars overall didn’t fare very well in April. The Fusion showed growth, but at a distinctly slower pace than it enjoyed during the first quarter of the year. The Impala, 300 and Camry– all of which had been showing sales increases for the first three months of the year– took a dive. Camry was the most surprising; April sales dipped below those of the previous two years.

Pickup Trucks

The choices here are pretty straightforward: Ford F-Series , Dodge Ram , and Toyota Tundra. GM offers its full size truck under both the Chevrolet and GMC brand names.  I'm tracking the Silverado , as it’s the better-selling of the two GMT900-based pickups.

So far this year, the Ram is currently following the same sales trend (and almost same numbers) as last year. It's an interesting development for a design that’s the oldest in its class.

Ford's F-Series is also showing the same sales trend as in previous years– but at an alarmingly lower level.

The Silverado bears watching. For the second consecutive month, sales were below previous years. This despite the fact that it’s a new design; sales should be trending higher. Chevy just announced new incentives to see if they can pull sales up.  If not, failure to elevate could portend some scary problems for GM.

Truck-Based SUVs

These are the traditional SUVs we all know and… uh… know them. They’re represented here by the Tahoe , Explorer , Durango and 4Runner.

The new[ish] Chevrolet Tahoe is the only SUV showing an overall sales increase over last year. However, its sales are still well below ‘06, and there was a major sales drop from March to April this year. Since the Tahoe tends to show the same drop over the last three years, there may not be a cause for alarm– except in light of the overall numbers.

This year's sales-to-date for the Ford Explorer, Dodge Durango and Toyota 4Runner are all below those for the previous years. With gas prices climbing, logic suggests sales have not yet hit rock bottom.

Small SUV/CUV's

In 2005, these models were all considered SUVs. Two years later, they’re CUVs (Crossover Utility Vehicles). Go figure. The models shown here– Equinox , Escape , Pacifica , and RAV-4 — were each manufacturer's 2006 top selling whatever-they-call-them-this-week. 

All but the Pacifica show a drop from March to April. Although sales of the newly-designed Toyota RAV-4 took a sharp fall in April, they're still above the previous years’ totals.

Ford has just introduced the refreshed 2008 Escape, so sales there may grow a bit over the next few months.

Chevy's Equinox stumbles and tumbles with practically no updates since it was introduced. With newer competition from Ford and Toyota, its sales will probably continue to decline.

New Models

You never know how the market will react to a newly-introduced vehicle. Each manufacturer is trying a new model that’s somewhat of a departure from their usual offerings.

GM now offers the Lambda-platform CUVs, represented here by the GMC Acadia. These CUVs are shouldering a lot of responsibility. They must replace GM's TWAT award winning minivans, take up the slack for some of the Trailblazer-based SUVs, and provide an alternative to The General's slow-selling large SUVs.

Ford introduced the Edge amid a lot of fanfare, touting it as Ford’s [latest] “make or break” vehicle. Chrysler is also taking a chance with the Jeep Compass — the first Jeep product in a long time that isn’t “Trail Rated." We’ll keep an eye on them to see how well the market accepts each.

Total Sales

All four automakers lost sales last month. Only Chrysler ended this April in better shape than last year; GM , Ford, and Toyota all ended the month lower than a year ago. It’s a bit early to tell if April's downturn represents a broader pattern, but we’ll keep tracking it and let you know what we find.

Beware the Ides of March! OK, relax. The sales figures are in for Julius Caesar’s final month. While it's hard to find new ways to say "GM, Ford and Chrysler sales are sinking while Toyota's eating their lunch" month after month, it's not impossible. How about this: The Big 2.5 look more and more like Lawrence Edward Grace Oates (to Toyota’s Roald Amundsen). “I am just downsizing and may be gone for some time.” Anyway, the more things change, the more they change the same.

Compared to last March, GM sales sank four percent, Ford’s plunged nine percent and Chrysler Group’s tumbled 4.6 percent. Overall, domestic vehicle sales were down 3.7 percent— against the backdrop of ToMoCo's 11.7 percent sales gain. Despite Toyota's seemingly unstoppable ascension (managing Detroit's decline is still job one), there were a few reasons to be cheerful.

Pre-divestiture Chrysler watched The Dodge Boys move 32 percent more Calibers than last year, proving that their macho SUV-lite has legs. Less explicably, Charger sales galloped ahead by 40.8 percent. And thanks to the runaway success of their new four door, Jeep Wrangler sales scrabbled ahead by 63.8 percent.

The Ford Fusion continues to gain traction; sales are up 47.5 percent over last year. Capitalizing on the small car surge, Chevy sold 53.1 percent more gas-sipping Aveos in March ‘07 than in March ‘06. At the other end of the CAFE spectrum, Expedition sales rose 27.8 percent while Suburban sales were up a gargantuan 73.3 percent.

March on March, import sales were up 17.5 percent. Mazda came in with the lion’s share; the Ford sub’s sales rose by 47.9 percent. Mitsubishi showed a healthy 22.3 percent increase. Stalwarts Toyota and Honda clocked 15.6 and 13.6 percent increases, respectively. It would’ve been an even more dramatic import victory if not for Scion (down 23 percent), VW (down 15.3 percent) and BMW (MINI tumbled 5.1 percent).

For the most part, inventory levels declined across the board. Only two Fords exceeded the magical 90-day supply mark: the Mark LT (101 days) and Montego (95 days). Chrysler has recovered from the sales bank fiasco; only low volume models (Viper, Crossfire, Sprinter) are languishing on lots. That’s aside from the 117-day supply of Jeep Compasses, up 11 days from February.

While GM averages an 86-day vehicle supply, GMC has a 149-day supply of Canyons and a 125-day supply of Sierras. Chevy dealers hold 102 day’s worth of Silverados and 101 day’s worth of Colorados. Saturn lots are clogged with 214 days’ worth of IONs and Pontiac dealers are feeling the Vibes for 129 days. Meanwhile…

The average Toyota had a 46-day shelf life. Nissans disappeared in 67 days. Even last month’s lot queen, the Mazda B-series truck dropped from a 229 to a 183-day supply. Once again, the Honda Fit led the pack with just 13-day's supply ready for sale.

In sales per dealer (SPD), Toyota once again topped the chart, up 39 sales to 175 SPD. Surprisingly, Ford averaged more SPD than Chevy (57 vs. 52). At 38 SPD, Dodge led the way for Chrysler Group. In contrast, Mercury dealers moved seven units apiece. Once again, Buick set the floor, averaging only six sales per dealer.

Three manufacturers saw full-size pickup sales increase from February to March: Ford (up 16.2K), Dodge (up 9.6K) and Toyota (up 3.5K). After a healthy jump from January to February, total sales of GM’s newly- launched GMT900 pickups decreased by 4.7K units in March.

Considering increased Sierra and Silverado inventory levels, and a sales decrease against its competitors’ increases, this could be an early indication of serious problems to come. Unless GMT900 pickup truck sales pick up or GM cuts production, we’re looking at a significant summer clearance sale. Any price reduction would likely be met in kind, leading to the beginning of the end for full-size pickup truck margins (as previously predicted here).

At the same time, domestic manufacturers have been slow to offer suitable alternatives to their larger and more profitable trucks. It may be too late to regain lost ground. In March, domestic light truck sales sank 4.8 percent while more economical imported light trucks rose 18.3 percent. GM’s small pickups—the Canyon and Colorado– fell by 14.6 and eight percent respectively. Toyota’s Tacoma is up 16.5 percent.

Taken as a whole, March’s sales figures indicate that the domestics are still struggling to stem the transplants’ ceaseless onslaught. The trend toward downsizing also continues, although perhaps not as radically as some have predicted. 

Next month, TTAC’s launching some new methodology. I’m trending sales for selected vehicles from The Big 2.5 and Toyota in four different categories: Passenger Cars, Full-sized Trucks, Truck-based SUVs, and Car-based CUVs. I’ll post graphs showing the comparative results along with data from the same time last year. This should give us greater insight into sales trends across brands and models.

After a bleak January, February offered Detroit automakers a whiff of spring. The Chevrolet Impala had a 60’s sales flashback. Thousands more customers went fission for Fusions. And Chrysler Wrangled plenty of loot from new Jeep owners (boosting their bottom line to help Daimler get the Hell out of Dodge). While The Big 2.5’s supporters may conclude that the numbers presage Motown’s long-awaited recovery, starting a Deathwatch Deathwatch may be a bit premature.

Scanning the February figures, looking at year-on-year comparisons, some models just plain took off. Sales of the Chevrolet Impala rose 43.9 percent. Sales of the GMT900-based Silverado increased 26.5 percent. Avalanches were up a whopping 109 percent. Over at Ford, 46.1 percent more folks fixed on a Fusion. Thanks to the new Wrangler four-door, the model moved 62.9 percent better than ‘afore.

Overall, Ford’s sales slipped 21.5 percent on the car side, 9.9 percent on trucks. Even with red hot Wranglers, Chrysler’s truck sales fell 4.6 percent, while car sales tumbled by 15.6 percent. Silverado sales pulled The General’s trucks up an eight percent incline. But steep declines in every division save Chevy and Saturn yanked car sales 2.7 percent lower.

To avoid premature recapitulation, you gotta factor in product freshness. For example, if you look at a February vs. February comparison for the new Avalanche, it looks like the model’s a solid sales success. However, this February’s buyers can sign away their life for a box-fresh design; last year’s buyers had to make do— or not— with a five-year-old design. The Silverado’s increase may conform to the same principle; “intenders” kept their powder dry until Chevy released the new truck. When Mellencamp’s motor hit the showroom floor, the pent-up demand created an initial sales surge.

By the same token, sales of the current gen Ford F-150 experienced a generous up tick for several months following the new model’s introduction. Now they're down 12.1 percent from last year. GM’s supposed salvation, the GMT900-based Chevrolet Tahoe, also started well. It’s down 24.4 percent. At some point, the Silverado’s momentum will require conquest sales and casual shoppers. With competition from Toyota’s new Tundra, rising gas prices and Ford’s new marketing push, it’s gonna be tough.

How did the “other side” (i.e. the foreign-owned automakers) do in this battle for domestic market share? Feb on Feb, Toyota Camry sales– benefiting from an '07 refresh– rose 17.5 percent. The increase seems to pale next to Impala’s 43.9 percent jump— until you clock the raw numbers. The Camry outsold the Impala by 14k units. The killer Camry also outpaced the Ford Fusion by almost 36k sales. The Honda Accord was Camry’s closest market segment competition– and it trailed the Camry by 7400 units.  

Inventory levels are staring to look good across the board. Production cuts and incentives have brought supply and demand into a better balance. Many beleaguered automotive divisions showed double-digit drops in inventory levels from January. Saturn went into “Like Never Before” mode, quickly moving from a deeply worrying 153-day supply of product to a merely troubling 93 day inventory. OK, yes, it’s still a far cry from the 60 day ideal, but Saturn dealers must be happy with the big drop in carrying costs.  

Formerly minimalist U.S. Porsche dealer lots are beginning to look a bit lebensraum challenged. The Sultans of Stuttgart’s inventory levels have jumped from an unassailably delicious 42-day supply to a “come on down” 70-day level. Blame fading sales of Porsche’s pricey Cayenne SUV. Even though the new, refreshed model is here to save the day (after skipping a model year), the SUV slump in general and Cayenne doldrums in specific raise the question automotive marketeers dread to hear: “Has everyone who wants one got one?”

America’s most available model (how great does that sound) is the Mazda B-series truck. Can someone please turn off the tap? Mazda dealers now have enough petite pickups to last 228 days. Ford’s Zoom without a Vue subsidiary would happily swap with Honda. The econobox-of-the-moment Fit and increasingly creased CR-Vs are smokin’ hot, with 19- and 20-day supplies respectively.

On the vital sales per dealer (SPD) numbers, nearly everyone’s up from January. Even tumbleweed infested Buick dealers showed a slight increase, adding two sales per dealer (to a not-so-grand-national total of six). Saturn scored the highest increase, adding 19 SPD in January (from 31 to 50). At Porsche– normally a sales tiger as the weather improves– SPD dropped by five. In raw numbers, once again, Toyota reigns supreme. The automaker hit 136 SPD in February, up 10 sales from the month previous. Lexus dealers ranked second, with a whopping 105 sales per dealer.

The automakers are hoping for some March madness. But with gas prices on the rise, the housing market on the slow and sub-primes all lent out with nowhere to go, the madness could get seriously crazy. Watch this space.