Political analysts are having a field day with this bailout business. Do Democrats want the multi-billion dollar automakers’ rescue pack to fail along partisan lines, so they can blame the fall-out on Diego the Republicans– before there are no Republicans left to blame? Are the Republicans stonewalling the bailout because they’re against the bailout on principle, or because they don’t think it will work, or so they can blame the Democratically-controlled Congress? Or even, God forbid, the lame duck President? (Praise be to GM for dropping Washington into the legislative soup between regimes.) I don’t pretend to know what’s in the hearts of our elected representatives, assuming that this vital organ even exists within their cash-padded chest cavities. Anyway, the AP reports that White House “Spokeswoman Dana Perino says the Democratic proposal [to tap into the existing Wall Street bailout fund] would lead to partisan gridlock because the $700 billion rescue package was never intended to help automakers and shouldn’t be now. For that reason, she told The Associated Press that the White House is now actively asking Congress to accelerate loans it first approved in September.” WTF?
Category: Bailout Watch
My colleague is hard at work debunking a GM-funded poll. It’s the latest weapon girding The General’s belt as it bolsters its claim on bailout billions. As several of TTAC’s Best and Brightest have already pointed-out, Motown’s strategy in this bailout push has been an enormous mistake. By publicly lobbying for taxpayers’ funds– without a concomittant PR campaign explaining their survival strategy– The General and the not-so-dynamic duo are advertising their incipient insolvency. In other words, if GM CEO Rick Wagoner’s right and “no one buys a car from a bankrupt car maker,” isn’t it also true, Mr. Wagoner, that only a slightly larger percentage of American consumer will buy a car from a carmaker that’s ABOUT to go bankrupt? To wit: “Do you believe that America’s automakers will face bankruptcy without government loans?” the Peter Hart poll asks. Sixty percent say yes, 22 percent say no and 18 percent don’t know. So 78 percent of respondents have a damn good reason NOT to buy an American automakers’ products. So why NOT file Chapter 11?
A few days ago, GM CEO “Red Ink” Rick Wagoner told his man in Germany to ask the German government for €40b (and sundry other goodies.) Opel-Chief Hans H. Demant’s request was shot down in Berlin faster than a 747 over Kamchatka. In fact, Opel/GM’s mental sanity was publicly called into question. Deeply humbled, Demant has penned another letter to Berlin. We paraphrase in the spirit of brevity: “Dear Angela: I’m sorry I rubbed you the wrong way. Can you maybe spare €500m? No? How about €200m? Please! I’ll pay you back. Real soon, honest. Ever your humble servant (and master of 25700 jobs), I remain respectfully yours, Hans H. Demant.” You think we are kidding? Here’s the real rub-a-dub-dub:
Here’s a crazy idea. Instead of relying on a bunch of politicians with little to no business experience to sort out GM’s problems, let’s find out what someone who actually turns around failing companies for a living would do. How about, say, William Ackman of Pershing Square Capital? After all, his Fannie/Freddie restructuring ideas seemed pretty well put-together. What say you, Mr Ackman? “GM should be allowed to succeed, and the only way GM can succeed is if it has a balance sheet its business can support,” Ackman tells Reuters. He goes on to say that he would expect GM to get to that position by agreeing to a “prepackaged bankruptcy in which GM’s creditors erase large amounts of liabilities in exchange for equity in the newly restructured GM.” Should a newly restructured GM still need more liquidity for its balance sheet, “then the government can play an important role while protecting taxpayers from losing money.” This, in a nutshell, is why Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson refused to let GM into his TARP. Unless GM massively corrects its balance sheet blues, any federal loans will just be so much good money thrown after bad. Restructuring means jobs will be lost, but if the alternative is subsidizing jobs for their own sakes, then we’ve reached an impasse. Now, all GM and the UAW need to do is stop worrying and learn to love the bankruptcy court.
Dear Mr. Mulally, Mr. Wagoner and Mr. Nardelli:
I understand that your company has been lobbying the Department of Treasury and congressional leaders for additional financial assistance via loans or through inclusion in the Troubled Asset Relief Program. While I understand the economic turmoil that many American businesses face today, I think it’s appropriate to ask those who seek a bailout from the federal government to do everything they can to first cut internal expenditures, including and especially executive salaries and compensation packages.
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Editor’s note: Comments on this story have been temporarily disabled. No, not our story. The Detroit Free Press article revealing that “Chrysler is in the awkward position of paying about $30 million in retention bonuses to keep top executives while the company cuts thousands of jobs.” Yeah, don’t you hate it when that happens? The Freep immediately counters with the ameliorating fact (not) that “Chrysler owes the bonuses under its contracts with about 50 executives, based on a retention incentive plan crafted early last year by former German parent DaimlerChrysler, when it was preparing to sell the Chrysler unit.” Ohhhh, so that’s alright then. Well, not with Freep readers, who’ve jammed the e-switchboard. Either that or the Freep can’t delete the flamers fast enough. Or they simply don’t want to allow their readers to express their outrage, for reasons that we can only guess (cough advertising cough). Anyway, damage control! “Nancy Rae, Chrysler executive vice president for human resources and communications, said the move made sense at the time to ensure potential buyers that key Chrysler executives would remain in place after a sale. She acknowledged that the bonuses could be seen as controversial now.” Yeah, no shit. Anyway, let’s name some names, shall we?
“A leading Democrat, Senate Banking Chairman Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, said he knows of no Republicans who would vote for a $25 billion auto rescue package. He added he was ‘not inclined’ to move a bill without bipartisan support, pointing out that prominent Republicans have publicly opposed the measure.” And there you have it, via The Wall Street Journal. Then again, maybe not. We know from Dodd’s profession (politician) and his connections to the mortgage industry (which his committee oversees) that the Senator’s “inclinations” are not inviolate. So perhaps the fact that House Minority Leader John Boehner called the bailout ‘neither fair to taxpayers nor sound fiscal policy’ is more germane. That’s rep Boehner of Ohio folks. “And what assurances will Democrats give taxpayers about their chances of getting their auto bailout money back?” Boehner asks in a prepared statement. While I’d like to think that the republicans have had a sudden bout of common sense and rededicated themselves to fiscal responsibility, this sounds like nothing more than pre-horse-trading political posturing to me.
In a new report covered by Automotive News [sub], Goldman Sachs says GM will end the year with $12.5 billion in cash, and will need at least $22b in government money to survive. Goldman is suspending GM’s rating, putting the automaker on a “wait-and-see” basis until further bailout details emerge. Meanwhile, JP Morgan cut its GM rating to “neutral” from “overweight” saying the automaker needs “something immediately” to make it through the end of the year. Morgan also slashed GM’s stock price target, from $3.08 to $1.84, about a dollar off its trading price of $2.89 at the time of this writing. And while Goldman set the bailout minimum at $22b, Morgan reckons the bill for righting the General “could easily reach $30 billion unless GM reforms its vast liability structure.” GM stock is currently down about five percent on the day, although it’s shown resiliance to earlier Deutsche Bank analysis which valued the stock at precisely bupkis. Still, urgency is the common thread that ties all the analysis together, and if news doesn’t improve soon for GM, its stockholders could see their paper become worthless in short order. Rest assured, TTAC will have the latest developments as they occur.
While Michigan Governer Jennifer Granholm spreads hysteria and misinformation in aid of her state’s struggling automakers, Indiana Governer Mitch Daniels is taking far more honest position on the the proposed bailout. “Let’s give Congress a chance, but there’s nothing in recent history that suggests they have an answer for this,” Daniels tells the Indianapolis Star. “The only thing we know for certain is the way they’ve been doing business does not work and throwing taxpayer dollars after it won’t make it work.” And before you accuse Daniels of throwing more vulnerable states to the wolves, consider that Indiana is the fifth-biggest auto manufacturer in the union, with some 61k auto industry jobs. Oh yeah, and his state’s unemployment fund is running low, thanks to the hard times. Daniels, who is in DC to receive an award from Governing Magazine for his accomplishments as a first-term governor, knows that once bailouts start there’s no telling where they will end. “If they send money, we’ll cash the check,” says Daniels. “But I didn’t come down here with a tin cup. I just think caution is the watch word. And I don’t know where it ends. I didn’t notice anyone throwing money at the RV industry and that cost Indiana a lot of jobs. Our position all along has been that any solution has got to be a solution leading to long-term viability.” Needless to say, short-term bridge loans don’t meet that criteria. Then again, maybe Daniels’ principled stand has more to do with the fact that the major manufacturers in his state (Toyota, Honda, Subaru) are doing fine, and aren’t asking anyone for a bailout.
I like Phil LeBeau. Sweetheart of a guy. He talks to TTAC’s Ken Elias on a regular basis. But I’m not so convinced about Mssr. LeBeau’s journalistic cojones. In the first post-GM quarterly statement TV interview with Rick Wagoner, LeBeau asked GM CEO’s the tough question: is there any point at which you say fuck that shit, we’re out of cash, I’m heading for Aruba, YOU file for C11? [paraphrasing]. But Phil forgot to go for the kill and/or (we hear) ask Wagoner to share some of his private stash. Now that the Detroit Bailout has become Germanicized (caps) and gets its own logo (the sure sign of sexual maturity for any story in the MSM), Phil is on the case– although not the case of the CEOs responsible for this Donnybrook…
Germany’s industry rag Automobilwoche [sub] is running an interesting ballot. “Who do you think would profit the most if GM goes bust?” (or German words to that effect). The options are kind of odd. Only Ford, Renault/Nissan, Toyota, and Volkswagen are eligible. But keep in mind, Automobilwoche is a German rag. They could have asked “What if Opel would die?” But they didn’t. Do they know more than we do? 846 souls have voted so far.
Today’s New York Times’ story on GM’s travails begins by highlighting the bailout bullet train– and then switches track. “Momentum is building in Washington for a rescue package for the auto industry to head off a possible bankruptcy filing by General Motors, which is rapidly running low on cash. But not everyone agrees that a Chapter 11 filing by G.M. would be the disaster that many fear. Some experts note that while bankruptcy would be painful, it may be preferable to a government bailout that may only delay, at considerable cost, the wrenching but necessary steps G.M. needs to take to become a stronger, leaner company.” Yes, it’s GM CEO Rick Wagoner’s worst nightmare: as TTAC predicted, momentum is growing for a GM C11. Obviously, any such suggestion depends on GM continuing to do business post-bankruptcy. And that’s a bridge [loan] too far for most MSM pundits.
That’s the day that House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass, will introduce legislation that will change the rules on the previously approved $700b financial rescue package so that America’s ailing automakers can stick their snouts into the federal trough. Yes, that Barney Frank; the same congressman whose oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lead to the relaxation of lending policies that pushed both quangos to the brink of extinction. (Not to mention Frank’s relationship with Fannie’s policy wonk Herbert Moss or campaign contributions from both organizations to the Congressman’s campaign.) Automotive News [sub] reports that it’s shootout at The OK Give ‘Em 25 Bil Corral.
As commentators from all across the spectrum ditch their pom-poms and start to face facts, The Detroit Free Press is keeping it surreal by dedicating its nearly all of its ink budget to the cause of federal investments in the American auto industry. In fact, there’s so much bailout boosterism, it’s hard to know where to begin. How about the decision to run this CBS scare piece, complete with misleading, self-serving commentary by MI Governor Jennifer Granholm? When asked to justify a bailout of failed businesses, Granholm claims “one in ten Americans is employed in this industry.” Yes Ms Granholm, but “this industry” includes plenty of healthy firms who aren’t asking anyone for a bailout. Oh, but the “national economy,” “manufacturing sector,” and “energy future” (?) depend on a bailout, threatens pleads Granholm. You decide where her political career rates on that list of bailout-dependent priorities. Oh, but there’s so much more… Read More >
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