The day before I left in my jet for an exercise in Goldsboro, North Carolina on the 18th of this month, I filled my ancient Audi Quattro's 25 gallon tank to the tune of $98, with gas on-base hovering around $3.94. I then staggered into the station to get Swedish Fish and Tequila to drown my sorrows, as a 25 year-old Audi with AWD only gets 25mpg at best. Upon landing yesterday, the 30th, I drove past the pumps, and saw prices are now $3.34, a drop of $0.60 in 15 days. I would have only saved about $13 or so, but that buys at least three overpriced coffees at Starbucks. Are the plummeting gas prices in the most oil-cheap of states a portent of things to come? I believe so, as my father, an engineer for Occidental Petroleum in Texas has started analyzing all oil wells that cost more than $100 per barrel to extract the dino-juice from the Earth. Oxy is starting to prepare for a crash, as are the other oil companies (per rumor). The rumors flying around the offices in Midland, Texas are saying middle of 2009 to early 2010. Regardless of whether an oil crash occurs, who ever predicts the crash, or the rise in prices will surely make a lot of money.

Our previous blog post made the connection between China's increasing demand for imported oil, The People's Republic's subsidies for the black gold ($40b p.a.) and the policy's inflationary effect on U.S. gas prices. Common sense (and The New York Times) suggest that other "managed economies" are using the same pro-growth strategy, amplifying the inflationary effect on world oil prices. "The oil company BP, known for thorough statistical analysis of energy markets [excellent hat tip to Big Oil!], estimates that countries with subsidies accounted for 96 percent of the world’s increase in oil use last year — growth that has helped drive prices to record levels." Hey, what happened to "Let's all blame the evil speculators?" Anyway, you think the U.S. is "addicted to oil?" Malaysia spent 7.5 percent of its economic output on oil subsidies. Indonesia shelled-out $20b this year to keep prices down. And where there's no political will to let the free market do its thing, there's no way they'll stop. "You talk about subsidies, you’re not only talking about the economy," asserts Purnomo Yusgiantoro, Indonesia’s minister of energy and mineral resources. "You’re talking about politics.” I.e. his job. So they're damned if they do, damned if they don't. And for this you pay at the pump. [thanks to OldDavid for the link]

Those who claim that the current price of oil is a supply – demand deal have some new ammo. Industrialinfo.com reports that The People's Republic of China imported 90.53 million tons of crude oil in the first half of 2008, up 11 percent over the same period last year. And you know all those dollars we send over to China to build the cheap stuff we buy at Wal-Mart? A big chunk of that went to "Angora, Saudi Arabia and Iran" [sic]. "The value of imported oil rose to $64.98 billion, representing a dramatic 85.8% increase in costs." Although China exports some oil (2.37m barrels worth $1.42b), experts reckon the percentage of imported oil will continue to rise. The only possible brake on Chinese oil consumption: the lowering of government subsidies. The New York Times pegs that number at $40b per annum. So far, nothing much happening on that front. All of which means the current status is likely to remain quo. 

The AP gets straight to the heart of this story: "As the price of oil drops dramatically, some analysts wonder if the bubble is bursting." When the markets closed on Friday, August oil futures had dropped from their recent high of $147/barrel to "only" $128.88. That still leaves oil about $100/barrel over it's long term inflation adjusted average of $27-$28. Detroit, especially Ford, appears to be moving full steam ahead to convert capacity from trucks to small cars as fast as possible, which means in about two years. So… what if fuel prices will drop back down, keep going up or stay about where they are now during that two-year timeframe? Whatever happens, it seems that $4/gallon has been a behavioral tipping point for the US' car and truck buyers. It took about a decade of stable fuel prices for people to forget the shocks of the 1970s. Once again it seems that even a slight moderation of prices would not mean a wholesale return to 1990s style gas-guzzlers. The only sensible strategy for a mainstream automaker: offer a compelling line-up across the board and flexible factories ready to zig when the market zags. But hey, what do I know?

The drop in fuel consumption continues. The Wall Street Journal reports that "gasoline consumption dropped 3.3% from last year to 9.347 million barrels a day." This puts current domestic gas usage at the lowest level since 2003, effectively rolling back five years of growing demand. Consequently, fuel supplies at refiners are growing, up by one million barrels in the last week alone. Of course, compared to 9.347m barrels per day of consumption, having an additional million barrels in inventory is hardly a glut. The reduced consumption started with a one percent drop (compared to last year) during April, ramped to a 2.2 percent drop in June and then hit 3.3 percent during the week surrounding the 4th of July. But, while consumers are cutting back, trucking and farming are doing the drunken sailor routine. U.S. diesel consumption is up a full six percent compared to last year– even though diesel fuel prices are up 65 percent while the price of gasoline rose by only 38 percent. Ironically, some of the boom in diesel fuel use is down to increased ethanol feedstocks and the fleet of tanker trucks required to move the stuff around. (Gasoline can be transported over long distances in pipelines; ethanol has to go one tanker truck at a time.) As for the clean diesel car revolution, dead on arrival.

Back when fuel was below $3 a gallon, renting a car was like playing Wheel of Fortune. Though you usually got the car you rented, once in awhile, a big prize like an SUV or a Cadillac DeVille came up. ABC News reports that rental customers are now avoiding upgrades to bigger cars and SUVs because of high fuel prices. In turn, they've created a shortage of rental compacts, forcing rental companies to respond with more aggressive tactics to "upgrade" the customer to bigger and more fuel-thirsty options. The oversupply's sending SUVs daily rental rates downward, to the point where renting an SUV is becoming  cheaper than renting a compact. As ABC notes: "an Internet search by ABC News this week found Budget Rent A Car offering a daily rental of an intermediate SUV from Newark airport in New Jersey for $66. An economy vehicle was $76, and a compact car cost $77." [NB: TTAC could not duplicate these deals on AVIS.com or Nationalcar.com.] One frequent renter has a word of advise for rental car companies: deal. "[They] need to anticipate what's coming. If Avis came up tomorrow and said, 'Our vehicles are fuel-efficient vehicles,' they'd see a surge in people wanting to rent from Avis." Oops! Looks like Hertz's Green Collection PR team dropped the ball. 

Consumer Reports have a brand-spankety new survey out, and it says that Americans can tell that gas is expensive. Oh yeah, and that they might do something about it. Survey says that four-dollar gas™ has 79 percent of us car-shopping Yanks wanting a "car with better fuel economy," and 74 percent driving less to keep costs down. Even though the respondent-identified $4.32 per gallon "tipping point when drivers would further drastically curtail driving" is only upon those of us on the left coast, a full 80 percent of prospective buyers are considering a "diesel, flex-fuel, or hybrid vehicle." Too bad those numbers aren't broken down between those three very different options. So America has taken notice of pricey gas, but the real question is who do Americans blame? And the answers are as unimaginative as you might expect, with the federal government (77 percent), oil companies (75 percent), foreign oil producers (70 percent), and Middle East conflict (68 percent), taking the rap for pain at the pump. When asked what the feds should do to fix the mess, 90 percent say "increase support for alternative energy development", 84 percent say "negotiate lower prices with oil-exporting nations", 83 percent say "encourage conservation through tax incentives for alternative transportation", while 81 percent want to "allow more drilling in the U.S. and offshore." Interestingly, "Putin-style nationalization of oil firms" and "wholesale invasion of the middle east" weren't polled, suggesting there might not be convenient solutions to scapegoats number two, three and four. 

For the last two weeks, Canadian gas prices have hovered between $1.36/L and $1.47/L. In American terms, that's roughly $5.60/gallon. CTV News is reporting that this price level looks like the sweet spot for the average Canadian hybrid driver; that is to say, the point at which the long-term savings from lower fuel consumption outweigh the up-front savings from buying a conventional petrol-only vehicle. The finding is based on a study conducted by the British Columbia Automobile Association (BCAA). They projected operating costs for 13 hybrids (versus their respective, conventional ICE brethren) over five years, assuming 20,000 km driven/year. The result: seven out of 13 hybrids were cheaper to operate. Leading the way: the Honda Civic Hybrid. The gas – electric whip cost some $4k less  to run than its petrol-powered counterpart. Notable by its presence, the Prius was compared to the Matrix and came out… second. The Prius cost $86 more to operate over five years. Unfortunately, the study focused primarily on sticker pricing (meaning the domestics, which don't sell anything for sticker, were again disadvantaged), and didn't include depreciation. So… what?