On hearing that Rick Wagoner is outta here, Asia-Pacific shares nosedived on Monday, which wiped out most of the gains they had made last week. It’s not that anyone is missing Red Ink Rick. Traders at the Asian exchanges see the departure as a sign that “the US government might allow one of the world’s biggest car makers, General Motors, to go bust,” writes the Financial Times [sub].

As Wagoner’s defenestration hit the wires, the Nikkei in Japan dropped 4.5 percent to record its worst day for two and a half months. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 4.7 percent—its biggest fall in three weeks. Taiwan shares were down 3.4 percent and in South Korea the market dropped 3.2 percent.

A person close to General Motors told the Financial Times said that the resignation of Rick Wagoner at the weekend made it likely the company would file for bankruptcy protection sometime in the next few weeks.

In an odd interview in automotorsport, Lars Hägerborg of Saab Sweden claims they now have concrete facts about a new owner. As we all expected this really doesn’t mean the end of Opels re-badged as Saabs (not to mention Chevy SUVs) as Lars says GM’s mind-NSFW game, er, cooperation will last at least another five years. Supposedly GM Powertrain Sweden will continue to share parts and tech with the other GM divisions but will keep “the best bits to themselves.” Judging by the turbo I4s that Saab has been cranking out lately, I’d say they can keep whatever they have and nobody will mind. Next in the process is lining up some government bailout funds to (as Lars says) “[be] a loan that allows us to move forward.” Lars also whined that the automotive press is too harsh on Saab for their abject failures and that we should instead focus on the future and their new [vaporware] models which are yet again later than expected. The new models of course being the Opel in a Saab suit 9-5 and the “Chevy in a Saab suit” 9-4. Good luck Saab, you’re gonna need it.

Dagens Industri has published a letter from Saab’s union bosses which accuses GM of playing silly buggers with the brand’s accounts. As Saabs United says, “The report tends to support the idea that GM are handy at shuffling results around to suit their reporting needs.” [Thanks for the TTAC translation to commentator Naser Rouholamin]

Recently, the future of SAAB has been the subject of many allegations and much debate. Specifically we are thinking about such claims as “using tax money for playing monopoly”, or “SAAB has always made a loss, hence there is no point in saving it now”.

In order to rebuke the latter claim one must realise that not even GM would have kept Saab afloat the last 20 years from pure goodwill.

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Kroymans Corp of the Netherlands plans to file for bankruptcy and shame the General, reports Automotive News [sub]. GM’s importer for Cadillac, Corvette and Hummer in European Union markets will “transfer” the distribution business to GM, “a process it expected to complete by next year.” Har. Har. By the way, has everyone filed their taxes already? It’s best not to wait until the last minute with these things. Your money is urgently needed to allow the CTS sportwagon roam free in its natural environment.

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Good news, everyone! A finance company whose risky investments in auto and real estate loans required it to beg for $6B in bailout cash is at the ready to teach you the secrets of smart financial planning. According to a release at PR Newswire, GMAC “has bolstered its effort to provide consumers with personal finance education with a $20,000 grant to InCharge® Education Foundation, Inc. (ICEF). The funding will be used to co-sponsor a series of financial literacy courses throughout the country in 2009. The courses, named ‘Smart Edge by GMAC,’ are designed to help people make better financial decisions by providing them with information about budgeting, real estate and automotive finance, insurance, credit reports, credit scoring, and other tools.” Lesson number one? Pay your CEO $11.6M even if you’ve been bleeding red ink all year. Lesson number two? Savagely screw over the people your business relies on.

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The Detroit News is reporting that Presidential Task Force on Automobiles (PTFOA) is ready to float some trial balloons—I mean, announce part of its master plan for “saving” the U.S. auto industry. The News reckons the PTFOA will place the cart before the horse, revealing its bailout strategy for the domestics’ suppliers sometime this week. Then they’ll unveil the new new bailout arrangement to fund GM’s new new new new new new new turnaround plan and, believe it or not, Chrysler’s mythological recovery strategy. Meanwhile, Saturn’s keepers are busy pre-stretching the limits of credibility.

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Yes, you read it right. Over a nice little breakfast with the good folks at The Christian Science Monitor [reported by The Detroit News], Rick “Bankruptcy Equals Death” Wagoner said a GM pre-packaged Chapter 11 might work. Apparently, GM has “carefully studied” the idea of a 30- or 60-day, pre-packaged bankruptcy and “pointedly didn’t rule it out.” The bottom line: “It could work. It might not work.” Yup, those are the two possibilities all right. Wagoner also “revealed” that “There is no (debtor-in-possession) financing other than the U.S. government because my administration has systematically destroyed or sold off all of General Motors’ assets.” Just kidding, although Wagoner did admit Uncle Sam was the only DIP-shit in town. Oh, and Wagoner also added that a bankruptcy would “likely cost the government far more money than the Detroit automaker has sought.” Likely? How likely? Numbers? And they say a Harvard MBA isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on. Speaking of collegiate carousing, “Wagoner said the company would pare back its dealers by 25 percent in a ‘measured thoughtful aggressive way’ to ensure it didn’t hurt sales. ‘This isn’t a meat cleaver deal.'”

Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) has had a look at Chrysler, Ford and GM inventories vs. the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate of Sales (a.k.a. SAAR), and it’s even uglier than we thought. Given that The Big 2.8 have already cut WAY back on production AND increased incentives, it seems that the US new car market is suffering from the worst case of constipation since WWII. CSFB’s analysis gives us further reason to doubt GM’s motives in declaring a 45 percent production increase for the second quarter of ’09. Whatever the reasoning behind GM’s announcement, it has nothing to do with market reality. These numbers also cast the chortling IHS Global Insight analyst—who bashed Honda for its inventory problems—in a slightly different light. But I’ll save those bon mots for after the data dump . . .

* Big 3 inventories fell by about 3% from Jan to Feb, compared to the normal seasonal increase of about 2.5%. Despite the favorable move in absolute stocks, the overstocked level worsened, owing to a dismal sales level that lowered our estimate of the number of vehicles dealers should be holding.

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Chrysler has a non-binding deal with Italian automaker Fiat, which has agreed to take a 35 percent stake in Chrysler in exchange for access to technology and overseas markets, and not a single dime.

But wait! It’s a miracle! Just as Jesus Christ turned water into wine, Bob Nardelli turned the no-cash-at-all deal into a bonanza.

The deal with Fiat is worth up to $10B for Chrysler and could preserve 5,000 North American manufacturing jobs, Chief Executive Bob Nardelli said on Monday in a missive to his minions.

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DW reports that German Economics Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg is in the US talking about how best to disentangle/jettison the Opel brand from its “struggling parent company.”

One of the main issues Guttenberg will address is the ownership of patents and other intellectual property Opel requires to continue producing cars. He will also explore GM and the US government’s willingness to let go of Opel.

Chancellor Angela Merkel told public broadcaster Deutschlandfunk that Guttenberg needed to “clarify how General Motors would be able to back away in order to give Opel more room to move.”

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TTAC commentator Jeevesw reminds us that The Blue Oval Boys also got the Blogging Stocks reality check, and it looks like another case of chew and screw. GM is number 7 on their list of Portfolio Killers. Ford comes in at number eight.

Despite its recent successes at negotiating new contracts and its refusal, so far, to accept government funds, when General Motors (NYSE: GM) goes into Chapter 11, Ford (NYSE:F) will have to do the same to remain competitive.

Given the ferocity of this downturn, if it didn’t accept government handouts, it would probably end up in some form of forced re-organization anyway.

Real shareholder value: zero

Blogging Stocks pulls no punches. The site leaves GM with a black eye, calling the company a “portfolio killer.”

This is a ridiculous company with an even more ridiculous management group. General Motors'(NYSE: GM) cars are mediocre, its union contracts are incredibly extravagant in a brutally competitive industry, and management seems to think we are still in the 1950s.

Recently, the company’s auditors raised even more concerns about the automaker’s ability to survive without more loans from the government.

GM’s own forecast assumes survival based on a car market that is larger in 2013 than it was in 2006. Yeah, right.

True shareholder value: zero

We shouldn’t read too much into meetings such as those of the G20. Even G8 confabs usually produce nothing other than nice announcements. Finance ministers of Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the U.S., the U.K. and the European Union met this weekend in Horsham, England.

According to Bloomberg, the meeting produced the not too unexpected pledges of a sustained effort to end the global recession. The U.S. called for more spending. The Europeans called for restraint. The usual solution was a joint decision to monitor further developments closely. But there were undertones that could signal the end of wholesale bailouts.

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