The analysts RL Polk prove just how hot All Wheel Drive is right now, demonstrating that over a third of all vehicles sold in October and November of last year were equipped with AWD. Even more interesting: last Summer didn’t see the typical seasonal drop in AWD-equipped model sales. Polk’s Tom Libby breaks it down

At the make level, every ongoing make except four enjoyed an increase in AWD/4WD penetration in the September – November 2010 time period when compared to the same time period in the prior year. And the five largest makes based on retail registrations (Toyota, Ford, Honda, Chevrolet and Nissan) all experienced increased AWD/4WD take rates, led by Nissan (up 25%) and Toyota (17%). Lastly, in the 11 months of 2010 for which registration data are available, the two makes with the highest AWD mix among all those that offer both cars and light trucks, Subaru and Audi, have substantially out-performed the industry, with retail registrations up 21% and 20%, respectively, versus the industry gain of 7%.

Everyone doesn’t need AWD, but plenty of people want it… and it’s no coincidence that the two brands most closely associated with AWD (Audi and Subaru) are on sales tears right now. But will AWD continue to climb? Gas prices could put a crimp on the AWD party, but assuming for a moment that gas prices stay flat, where would the AWD fleet mix top out? Will the AWD mix ever hit 50 percent? More?

Keeping a nervous eye on oil prices? Curious how each increase in the price per barrel translates into price at the pump, and what impact that actually has on consumers? Zerohedge comes through with this handy primer on the real-world consequences of each increase in the price of oil. And what, pray tell, does the “Nomura” note scrawled over the $220/barrel price refer to? Why, the prediction by Nomura Investment Bank analyst Michael Lo, that if Libya and Algeria stop oil production due to unrest, the price of crude will hit $220/barrel. Are you ready to start spending an extra ten percent of your household income on gas?

As a site dedicated to arming consumers, industry observers and enthusiasts with as much worthwhile information about the world of cars as possible, we have to give it up for TrueCar. At a time when some automakers are dialing back the amount of data they share with the media and public, TrueCar’s regular data dumps represent one of the best sources of free information about the current state of the car market. And not only is it based on the analysis of millions of transactions, but it’s presented in a format that even the most laid-back of industry armchair quarterbacks can quickly understand. You can find the entire February forecast here, or, check out the gallery below for a TTAC-curated tour of some of the highlights.

The outgoing Ford Focus fell several spots in the C-Segment last month, and the Kia Forte bumped the Mazda3 down a bit… but as new products like the 2011 Elantra and Corolla, and the 2012 Focus hit the market, this crucial segment will see yet more turmoil.

Wherever you fall in America’s cultural geography, you have to cop to one cold, hard truth: trucks sell. In fact, in a market experiencing such odd automotive sales phenomena as no Honda Accord in the top ten, Altima taking second in the D-Segment and a Compact CUV in the top six, it almost seems like the only sure thing anymore is the F-Series and Silverado selling at or above 30k units per month. Whether you find that fact comforting or troubling, you’ll be sure to want to know the truck’s secret to success… which you’ll find just below the fold (along with a more extensive best-sellers chart).

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Throughout the month, TTAC tries to go back to recent sales numbers in hopes of providing greater context for the industry’s day-to-day decisions. On the first of each month, however, we get so overwhelmed with volume numbers, we thought we’d take this opportunity to explore the price-volume frontier. Inspired by recent rumors of a 120k unit production goal for the $41k Volt and the ensuing discussion of the BMW 3 Series’ unique position on the price-volume frontier, we thought we’d feel around the data for this mythical plateau. Sadly our unsophisticated graphing software (and overworked editor) didn’t allow for a more full exploration of high-priced vehicles reaching near-mass-market volumes, so we put together a “basket” of higher-priced, strong-selling models. And though we obviously cherry-picked a little, we did use four manufacturers to indicate an approximate “delta” between price (base MSRP) and volume (2010 numbers). Are there outliers to our “price-volume frontier”? Possibly. Did we leave out the most interesting area of the graph (the mass-market vehicles) Definitely. But in the process we have hopefully proved that selling over 100k units of a vehicle costing $40k or more is not a goal to be taken lightly.

Ignore the commas in the X-axis labeling, and you’ll see that this graph compares total sales volume for last year against each model’s year-of-introduction as we hunt for the missing links between product cadence and sales performance. Above, you can see that none of the major D-Segment competitors was introduced before 2007, and that newness alone is not linked to sales volume. In fact, in the D-Segment, volume seems to decrease with newness (although historical data indicates that this is a brand-loyalty issue rather than a consumer preference for older vehicles). Moreover, it appears that more recent introductions are merely narrowing the competitive gaps in the midsized sedan segment (although we’ll need new Accord and Camry replacements to tell if that trend is for real).

The compact segment, on the other hand, shows a far less surprising correlation between year-of-introduction and sales, as sales grow in a fairly consistent manner as you move across the x axis from older to newer nameplates. The major lesson from these graphs: Honda and Toyota continue to enjoy a “reverse perception gap” in which their aging models tend to most dramatically defy volume expectations relative to the age of the competition. But with more competition coming this year, as Chevy’s Cruze, Hyundai’s Elantra and Ford’s Focus come into the market, the consumer’s tendency to give Honda and Toyota “the benefit of the doubt”  could well be tested. And once perceptions start shifting, there’s no telling where they might end up.

We’ve been slacking a bit on our sales analysis over the last few months, but with the end of the year rapidly approaching we’re getting ready to look back at a year of sales, statistics and trends. To catch you up on the evolving US market sales picture, we now present the top six sellers in each of the six most important segments. Midsized and compact sedans, midsized and compact crossovers, pickups and “luxury low” (better known as “3 Series Fighters”) are all represented with today’s wide but shallow snapshot of car sales in 2010. Will the Sonata pass Malibu this year? Having beaten the Toyota Highlander, will Subaru’s Outback take down the Honda Pilot? Will the CR-V hold off the Escape? Best And Brightest, this is your cue to start prepping those year-end sales analysis talking points…

Earlier this year we took a look at our rolling 12-month sales totals chart, and found that cars had pulled away from “light trucks” (a category that includes trucks, SUVs, minivans and crossovers), prompting us to proclaim The Great American Downsizing. Well, it turns out we opined too soon. Trucks closed out the Summer strong and went on a tear during the Autumn months, to pull back to parity with their car cousins. And because light trucks are trending upwards faster than cars, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them finish the year as the better-selling segment. Of course, these numbers aren’t being driven strictly by the old-school utes of yore, although old standbys like the full-sized pickups, the Yukon XL and Ford Expedition are all up by healthy margins. Between old-school utes and the large crossovers that are replacing them, the cars just don’t stand a chance. Hit the jump for car-versus-light truck sales by manufacturer.

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Yesterday’s discussion of Porsche’s identity as a pure sports car company (compared to an SUV-peddling luxury brand) was predictably emotional, so here’s the cold, hard truth. The Cayenne has been Porsche’s best seller in the US since its introduction, excepting a 911-happy 2006. Oh, and this year it’s on track to come in second… to the Panamera. Meanwhile, Porsche’s Boxster/Cayman duo has been dropping off since before the most recent recession even began, and 911 sales are approaching a 15-year low. Now that we know the facts, is there any debate about what would happen to Porsche if it stuck to its sports car knitting?

If you love data almost as much as you love cars, you’re in for a real treat. The EPA has issued a report [PDF here] on the last 35 years of light-duty vehicle efficiency trends, and it’s jam-packed full of fun graphs detailing the evolution of America’s car market. For example, the fuel-efficiency record of the major US-market players is laid bare in one particularly compelling collection of graphs (above). More detail on by-manufacturer efficiency over the last three years can be found here. Other fun graphs: production breakdowns by vehicle size and type, a comparison of performance and efficiency by vehicle type, and a distribution of vehicles by weight for 1975, 1988 and 2010 (weights dropped from ’75 to ’88, and are now back to nearly 1975  levels). You can also check out production share by weight to find out that the sub-2,750 lb died sometime after the year 2000. You can even see the breakdown of FWD-RWD-AWD  by vehicle type and pinpoint the moment that Subaru started making an impact on the market. All told, it’s an automotive data-gasm that will leave you a lot better informed about the state of the US market. And the perfect opportunity to make sweeping generalizations about the American car market. Enjoy!

If there’s a maxim the auto industry can take to the bank, it’s this: focus wins. Knowing a brand’s advantages and maintaining a laser-like focus on them is the way to win in the car game, and it’s a lesson Hyundai has clearly learned. Over the last several years, Hyundai has caught the media’s attention by moving into the luxury and coupe segments with its Genesis, but the real offensive is still coming. The redesigned Sonata was the tip of the spear, giving Hyundai a top-notch competitor in the all-important D-Segment, and next up are similarly improved versions of the Elantra and Accent. These three models have been some of Hyundai’s most enduringly successful nameplates, and as this graph proves, they’ve been responsible for much of the brand’s recent sales growth. They’ve even maintained decent momentum towards the end of their model lifes. With the new Tucson replacing the Santa Fe as Hyundai’s top-selling crossover, Hyundai has been able to maintain a competitive crossover nameplate for several years now, but even the hot CUV segment likely won’t provide as much juice to Hyundai sales as the redesigned Elantra and Accent. Meanwhile, Hyundai’s entries into the luxury and sporty space seem to have amounted to little more than a distraction… the lurking danger for every automaker.

With GM’s IPO officially launched, we thought we’d send ChartOTD diving inside GM’s sales performance this year. The graph above shows GM’s top nameplates by volume for the January-October 2010 period, compared to the same ten months of 2009. All of GM’s top-ten volume vehicles are doing better than they did last year, but these are not in fact GM’s fastest-growing nameplates. For that graph and more, hit the jump…

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