
When I came to China for the first time in 2004, after-work congregations of foreign executives who worked for Chinese auto joint ventures usually went like this: Someone muttered into his Tsingtao beer, or something stronger: “The Chinese will want us out within eight years.” Upon hearing this, all others around him nodded gravely, and another round was ordered. Over the years, more and more expats were sent home to Detroit, Wolfsburg, and Aichi. The silly “twin” system (a foreigner and a Chinese on the same job) stopped. Of course, the open secret was never officially discussed, but the outcome appeared to be inevitable: The days of the foreigners are numbered.
It will be 2010 within a few weeks, and the foreign (U.S., European; Japanese) joint ventures are still seemingly safely ensconced in China. As reported umpteen times at TTAC, China has become a strategically important market for most auto manufacturers. Nobody thinks anymore that come 2012, China will kick all joint venture partners out.
Yet, here is the first step in that general direction:
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