The mellonheads at Carnegie Mellon University have taken a long. loving look at the whole plug-in electric hybrid vehicle (PHEV) thing and reached a shocking conclusion: smaller is better. “Across the scenarios examined, the small capacity PHEV outperforms larger capacity PHEVs on cost regardless of the consumer’s discount rate, and the larger PHEV40 and PHEV60 are not cost effective in any scenario, although they provide GHG reductions for some drivers and the potential to shift air pollutant emissions away from population centers. The dominance of the small-capacity PHEV over larger-capacity PHEVs across the wide range of scenarios examined in this study suggests that government incentives designed to increase adoption of PHEVs may be best targeted toward adoption of small- capacity PHEVs by urban drivers who are able to charge frequently.” Golf carts! I mean, city cars! Not the, uh, Volt! Never mind. As the E85 debacle proves, politics trumps science every time. Until the free market has its say. If it’s allowed one.
Gawker reports that Tesla spinmeister Daryl Siry left the Silicon Valley startup because CEO Elon Musk (above) was pushing to accept deposits on the Model S sedan. The Model S (a.k.a. WhiteStar) exists only as a prototype. Tesla has no factory or financing with which to build it. When Musk announced that the DOE would approve Tesla’s loan application (they haven’t and likely won’t) and decided to accept $40K Model S deposits (next month), Siry smelled fraud and bailed. Valleywag calls Musk “The New Preston Tucker,” revealing that Musk told a recent Tesla “town hall” meeting that Tesla deposits were not guaranteed. This despite earlier assurances that Musk would personally guarantee deposits. With reports of Tesla asking for up to $75K in unescrowed “reservation payments,” and difficulty reclaiming deposits as small as $5K, Siry’s fears were probably well-founded. Meanwhile, anecdotal evidence from Tesla forums indicates that the real winner here: the Fisker Karma.
Via Green Car Congress comes word of China’s second plug-in electric car (after BYD’s Dual Mode plug-in, allegedly on sale now), the Chery S18. Chery’s website (In Mandarin, click here for Google translated hilarity) shows the tiny city car rolling off the assembly line, implying that China is taking a two-nil lead over the US in the race for production EVs. On the other hand, it’s probably safe to say that a carboard box has a higher chance of passing US crash test. Anyway, the S18 reportedly sports a 336 V, 40 KwH electric drivetrain featuring 40 Ah Lithium Iron-Phosphate batteries which recharge in 4-6 hours from a 220 V socket (a 30-minute quick charge provides 80 percent of battery capacity). Top speed is said to be 75 mph, and range is estimated at a modest 75-95 miles. Chery’s Yuan Tao claims (in Google translation) that the S18 not only boasts “the world’s most advanced technology” but “the price is also very suitable for families to buy.” Gasgoo says the S18 will go on sale in China later this year starting at less than 100K RMB ($15K), considerably less than even BYD’s F3DM which retails for 150K RMB.
Danny Westneat at the Seattle Times apparently wasn’t taken in by the “This Car Gets 100/150MPG!” signage on Seattle’s test fleet of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). And it seems that his journalistic incredulity was rewarded with some disappointing numbers from Seattle’s real-world testing of the much-vaunted PHEVs. Sure, a converted plug-in Prius might get 100 mpg in the hands of a fanatic hypermiler, but in daily use by untrained city drivers, the PHEVs return much more moderate results. Westneat reveals that Seattle’s 14 plug-in Priuses actually averaged about 51 mpg after driving a total of 17,636 miles in all kinds of conditions. And the Seattle case is no fluke.
The federal stimulus bill delivered unto America’s nascent plug-in electric vehicle industry some $12.5 billion of your hard-earned tax money for plug-in vehicles and infrastructure. I mean, why not? You gotta spend your way out of a recession, right? Politics aside, nothing. The details of the deal are coming to light, thanks to the plugged-in cheerleaders at Plug In America. The website congratulates all those who helped the government distort the market on their behalf, especially themselves.
Therefore, the historic bill, which has a tax credit of up to $7,500 per vehicle, has the potential to stimulate the sale of more than one-and-a-half million plug-in vehicles.
The President has called for one million plug-ins by 2015, and while Plug In America would like to reach that number even sooner, this provision will do wonders in helping us to meet Obama’s goal.
It can be so hard to tell when the firm’s CEO is so notoriously at odds with reality. So let’s just say that we’re entering Elon Musk’s world, grains of salt available upon request. In fact, the news comes from a Musk email that Jason Calcanis has posted verbatim to his blog (cross posted at Tesla Motors). The main point of the email seems to be to convince the reader that Tesla isn’t about to disappear with the credit market, citing a deal with Daimler to electrify the Smart, a $40m investment round and the near sellout of all 2009 Roadsters. Even better, if you lay out $100k for a Roadster now, you might just have a new cashflow opportunity to get you through the hard times. “Due to our order backlog, it seems that owning a Roadster can be a good investment,” writes Musk. “Last September, as the financial and real estate markets began crashing, a Roadster was sold at the Sonoma Paradiso in California wine country for $160,000, well above the current list price of $109,000.” And if you buy that, I’ve got some mortgage-backed structured invesment vehicles that you might be interested in. But the big news is that Tesla may or may not get funding from the biggest sucker of them all: the US Federal Government. Or not. (Hat Tip: minion444)
How much fun are those back seats going to be? Tesla plans to fully reveal the Model S and its spec sheet on March 26, “by which time Tesla hopes to have a final decision on its DOE loan application so that they can make other announcements about production,” according to Autoblog. Or not. Etcetera.
Ford’s press release lays down markers for its electric powered vehicle offerings. First up, an all electric version of the Transit Connect small commercial vehicle for 2010. But wait, the Electric Transit Connect is actually the work of Smith Electric Vehicles, a UK based company which has been re-powering conventional commercial vehicles for years. No surprise then that Ford’s Electric Transit Connect looks and specs out just like Smith’s “Ampere” (pdf). This makes Ford’s PR spin a bit hard to swallow when they say: “The initiative leverages the “One Ford” global strategy, delivering pure battery electric power for commercial applications on a global platform.” Slapping your name on someone else’s work must be the newest definition of “One Ford.” Further on, Ford is promising a full electric small car for 2011 and its Volt-zapping plug-in hybrid fin 2012. One can only hope the promised “full electric small car” doesn’t have the name Zap hidden under it somewhere.
Inflammatory much? Of course we do. Quick digression: Bain & Co is one of those international consultancies whose website doesn’t provide a client list, or any exact idea of what it does for them. Reading between the lines, like McKinsey & Company, they probably specialize in firing people (e.g., “Where appropriate, we work with clients to make it [increasing “value”] happen—which may mean fundamentally changing the company.”) The connection between Bain and a study of potential EV ownership is left unspoken. Looks like the usual client angling to me. OK, so, Business Week reports that Bain reports that EV intenders are rich bastards. “The survey of 4,000 people in eight countries, including the U.S., China, Japan and Germany, finds that high-income buyers are ready to buy all-electric vehicles as a second vehicle for short trips. ‘Consumers would be buying now if there were products,’ says Gregor Matthies, a Munich-based partner at Bain who specializes in the auto industry.” Did they only survey high income buyers? Not specified. So which theoretical EVs are we talking about?
OK, so I linked to this in the post below, but it really deserves its own post. After all, few things define the times quite as poignantly as Chrysler’s peculiar brand of insanity. See, the problem with the psychology of recession is that it causes inordinate self-doubt among panicked executives and their long-suffering staffs. Which, if you’re Chrysler, might be a good thing. Except that for some reason, the principles of reflection and continuous improvement always take a back seat to some brainiac who thinks that the problem is that the firms products aren’t exactly like iPods. At Chrysler, this brainiac is named Peter Arnell. In an interview with AdWeek, Chrysler’s “Chief Innovation Officer” lives up to his cliched title by spewing the most ridiculous twaddle about his pet project, the Chrysler PeaPod. For those who don’t know, the PeaPod is a GEM Low Speed (Neighborhood Electric) Vehicle (LSV/NEV). This means that the PeaPod is limited to 25 mph and is barred from thoroughfares with speed limits of higher than 35 mph. In other words, it’s useless. Unless you live on a golf course or in a gated retirement community. But the way Arnell tells it, the PeaPod is just a Wired Magazine cover away from becoming the next Apple killer app.
Yesterday’s announcement that the on-again, off-again, on-again Cadillac CTS Coupe was off-again provided yet more proof that GM’s product plans remain as they were before the company put its tail between its legs and headed to D.C. for bailout billions: chaos. Of course, the Caddy-related coupe-i-cide comes hard on the heels of GM Marketing Maven Mark LaNeve’s announcement that the automaker still hasn’t decided what to do with Pontiac. Or HUMMER. Or Saab. Not to mention Saturn. Now you can add Chevrolet to the list. The Motor Authority reports that the bloom is back on the on-again, off-again, on-again Chevrolet Orlando. “General Motors has confirmed that it will bring a production version of last year’s Chevrolet Orlando concept vehicle to the United States in 2011, reversing an earlier decision to only sell the vehicle overseas. The Orlando will likely be built at GM’s Hamtramck plant in Michigan, however there is still a chance that a cheaper imported version may be sourced from South Korea.” Some sites are focusing on the possibility of a plug-in Orlando. My question: now how much tax money would you pay?
Former McLaren designer Jim Doyle has announced that his firm JJAD will build 500 of these all-electric P1-E sportscars by 2012. An electric sportscar that goes 200 miles on a plug-in charge! Where do they come up with these ideas?
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