Tesla Motors chairman Elon Musk plans to take the company public before the end of the year. Before you call your broker to get in on the ground floor, think twice. Blogging Stocks' Zac Bissonette advises prospective investors to "stay away!" He doesn't base this advice on any of Tesla's financials. In fact he says he hasn't seen a registration statement or prospectus. Instead, he's looking at the money that initial investors lost in the airline industry, the hundreds of startup automakers over the years, the internet bubble that went bust and the struggling satellite radio companies. He reminds us that "world-changing technologies often fail to lead to profits for the investors." And then he offers this last bit of advice: "If the Tesla IPO is a hot one and investors start dumping boring profitable companies to pile in, I say take the hint and run the other way." You have been warned.

Think a Bugatti Veyron is pretty exclusive, what with its million dollar plus price tag? Maybe you think the new Rolls Drophead Coupe is a rare bird? In reality, all you need to roll down the street in one of these dream whips is money. Green Car Congress reports that only 200 drivers will "win" the right to lease a hydrogen fuel cell-powered FCX Clarity over the next three years. Oh wait, Honda's splitting the number between Japan and Southern California. So far, over 50k Californians have applied for a hydrogen-powered "it"-mobile. O.K., yes they'll need some money; $600 per month. The first cut will reduce the list to approximately 500 people who live near designated (if unbuilt) hydrogen fueling stations in Santa Monica, Torrance and Irvine. The chosen ones will receive an e-mail prompting them to take a customer selection survey. The Zero Emission [at least at the tailpipe] Powers That Be will chose the final 100 lessees based on driving patterns, vehicle needs, vehicle storage and– OK, again– financial criteria. Oh, that's after "an interview with Honda America." Yeesh. Maybe if they find out that you also own a Toyota, they'll vote you off "Clarity Island."

The Nikkei [via Business Week] reports Japanese Domestic Market (JDM) new car sales have improved slightly in the first quarter of 2008. But the number of automobiles on Japanese roads has fallen for three months straight (down 0.2 percent last quarter). That's the largest cumulative dip since record-keeping began in 1963. The Japanese government predicts traffic will peak by… 2010. Japan's population is slowly declining. More importantly, the cost and hassle of car ownership in the densely-populated island nation is driving people to alternatives. Imagine paying $400 per month on a Tokyo parking spot, and you're beginning to get the picture. As world governments milk the four-wheeled cash cow in the name of planet saving, expect more lower and middle-class motorists to be priced right off the roads. Japanese consumers bought some 282,600 Electric bicycles last year, up some 40 percent in the last five years. sts priced off the roads. In one of the worst first quarters for auto sales in recent memory, the U.S. scooter market jumped 23 percent, according to the L.A. Times. The times, they are a-changing.

The AP [via The Auto Channel] reports that Nissan is teaming-up with electronics giant NEC to mass produce lithium-ion batteries for the "next-generation of green cars." The Automotive Energy Supply Corporation is charged with making advanced li-ions for electric vehicles, hybrids and fuel cell thingamabobs. The plant should be up and running by 2009, producing 13k batteries annually. Eventually, AESC hopes to crank-out 65k batteries per year. Nissan's Executive VP Carlos Tavares says the Franco-tinged Japanese automaker wants to be a global leader in zero-emission vehicles. (Hey, who doesn't?) The man whose last name reminds us of the song "That's the sound the loneliness makes" insists that Nissan will introduce an electric vehicle in the U.S. and Japan, as well as its own hybrid, in 2010 [yes, there's that date again]. Nissan also plans to produce a zero-emission vehicles in Israel and Denmark by 2011, and market electric vehicles on a global scale by the year 2012. We would like to take this moment to remind Nissan of "Crazy" Henry Ford's maxim "you can't build a reputation on what you are going to do." Thank you.

Porsche has categorically denied nearly every speculative report recently revealed on the internet– and there've been lots. Stateside Cayenne SUV production? Nein. A Porsche spokesperson reminded Automotive News [sub] that the model's supply chain is in Europe; production can't be moved to the states. (At least not until the next generation Cayenne debuts in 2015.) Baby Cayenne? Chilling with Auto Motor und Sport, Porsche's Sales Boss says the "Roxster" is a non-starter. "We don't want to chase volume," Klaus Berning soothed, ignoring the whole Cayenne deal. "We'd rather make money on every car we sell. The larger the segment, the harder it is to make money, so a small SUV is certainly not Porsche's way forward." Rumors of a two-door Panamera (news to us)? What's German for fuhgeddaboutit? The Panamera provider said why would we? The four-door Porsche will increase volume by 25 percent. Which kinda contradicts his "no-volume chasing for us" assertion, but never mind. We're just happy to set the record straight. Until next time.

Photochop by Andrei Avarvarii

Those are poster texmin's thoughts on AutoblogGreen's report on the latest update from our friends at Tesla Motors. (BTW Daryl, we seem to have been inadvertently omitted from your email list.) The letter reveals Tesla's revised production schedule (surprise!): a 600-car 2008 model run by April 2009, followed by the 2009 models. Reader Chris H isn't impressed. "Three cars in 9 weeks…. Three weeks to build one car? At this rate it will take over five years just to get through the Founders Series and the Signature 100." In other news, Tesla's testing a new electronics module in preparation for the yet-to-see-daylight one-speed gearbox; both will be a "running production change." The standard 3 year/36k mile warranty can now be extended to 4 years/50k miles– at a price (the 2008 Roadster Club members get free extended coverage). Tesla Roadster owners living more than 100 miles from a service center no longer have to pay $8k up front to cover service transportation. They just pay for as few (or as many) trips as needed. By this time next year, Tesla plans on having stores in L.A. (done), Menlo Park New Jersey, New York, Chicago, Miami and Seattle. And finally, if you want a 2009 Roadster, the base price has risen from $98k to $109. To which leroy replied, "Save yourself $90,000 and just buy a used Lotus Elise. 90 grand will buy a hell of a lot of gasoline." 

All the big boys test their latest performance gear on the Nurburgring's Nordschleife. But only the truly committed (and confident) campaign their gestating hotness at the Nurburgring's 24-hour endurance race. We've already reported that Toyota will be challenging the event with their Lexus LF-A supercar (despite its being a good year off from launching). But even before ToMoCo's hypercar turns a wheel in anger, they've been one-upped in the ballsiness department. The tiny Gumpert Sportwagenmanufaktur is entering the grueling endurance race with a hybrid-electric version of its Apollo supercar. Out comes the Apollo's 4.2-liter Audi V8; in goes a 3.3 bi-turbo V6 with a Lithium Technology Corporation battery mated to a 100kW electric engine. The EV will charge its batteries by plugging into the electrical grid prior to the race. During the event, the car will beam its battery management data to the team's pit crew via sat phone. Former F1 Champ Heinz-Harald Frentzen (along with Dirk Muller) will helm the ambitious challenger, capitalizing on improved efficiency to pursue a less frequent pit strategy (as Audi did with its diesel Le Mans challengers). "Motor sports cannot ignore the necessity to save energy," say Frentzen (excepting private jets and helicopters). "I see a chance that our sport will go back to the forefront of technical development."  I for one would like to see these guys chalk up a few extra laps while the LF-A is in the pits, if only to put Toyota in the unfamiliar position of wishing it had invested more in hybrid technology.

Tata Motors has become the first major automaker to enter the 70-team field competing for the Automotive X-Prize. Having recently announced the development of the world's cheapest car and the purchase of Jaguar and Land Rover, taking on a bunch of guys who would probably be happier at the 24 hours of LeMons the uncanny X-Prize is probably just another day's work for Ratan Tata's lads. Of course, credit where credit's due: Tata is not signing up to lap Altamount in a Big Lebowski-themed Grand Torino. According to the requisite press release, Tata will be fielding an EV for the two-passenger, 200-mile range "Alternative" class, and a "Dominant" (serial?) Electric Hybrid in the four-wheel, four-passenger, 200-mile range "Mainstream" class. To win either category, Tata's entries must achieve a minimum 100 mpg, finish the race in first place, and meet numerous other requirements. Sure, as the only major automaker (thus far) to enter the competition, Tata may have a technological leg up on some of its rag-tag competitors. But, as the only team competing with a "win on Sunday, sell on Monday"  strategy, Tata also has the most to lose.  

When we started the Tesla Birth Watch last August, we said "we'll be following this developing story as it develops." Then, in January, we stated "we're obliged to quit carping under this title when one- count it ONE- Roadster enters its owner's climate-controlled garage." Well, it's happened. After several false starts, revised delivery dates and lots of PR tap dancing, the first Tesla is in the hands of a paying customer. (We know Tesla CEO Elon Musk got his Roadster three months ago, and supposedly paid full price for the honor, but we don't see that as a "real" delivery.) According to Tesla Comms Veep Darryl Siry, "Car #3 was delivered to someone (who prefers not to be named) who is not associated with the company on a day to day basis, but whose investment fund put money into Tesla very early." Of course, RF is grumbling, asking for independent verification of Siry's assertion. But I've convinced him it's time to call it a day. The Tesla Birth Watch is officially over. The Tesla Death Watch begins. 

GM is counting its unhatched Volt chickens while its battery system is still laying an egg by announcing a line of Volt-based Opel EVs which will hit Europe's roads in 2012… provided the Volt is actually ready by 2010. Auto Motor und Sport reports that the Volt's European launch should take place in 2011. The Opel EV will arrive a year later, using the same E-Flex drivetrain.  There will be two Opel models: a compact based on the Flexstream concept (pictured) shown at last year's Frankfurt Auto Show and a considerably larger sedan. Both vehicles will share the Volt's 40-mile EV range, as well as the small range-extending gas motor. Interestingly, GM also showed a Saturn version of the Opel Flexstream in Detroit, raising the possibility of a stateside bow for the badge-engineered Volt. Of course, if the all-important lithium ion battery development runs into problems, GM will be more than happy just to get a Volt out. Meanwhile, this announcement proves just how much is riding on GM's "moon shot." 

TTAC commentator Bunter1 sent us a link to Design News: "Accelerating Engineering Innovation." And that's what GM's doing with its oft-delayed, highly-touted electric – gas plug-in hybrid Hail Mary (a.k.a. the Chevy Volt). As anyone who follows such things knows, it's the batteries, stupid. It's a point well worth repeating. "To an engineer, it looks obvious. Gasoline packs 80 times more energy per kilogram than a lithium-ion electric vehicle battery. It holds 250 times more energy than a common lead-acid battery. So, it’s a no-brainer. Batteries can’t possibly deliver the energy needed to power the future of the auto industry, right?" Readers tempted to shout "Right!" are, obviously, corrected. Scribe Charles Murray places the effort to create a commercially viable electric vehicle somewhere between implausible and very, very difficult. The big news is text-embedded: the director of the Materials and Processes Lab. at GM Research Labs is not cool with his bosses' 2010 timeline for Volt production. “The big risks we have to overcome if we expect to see widespread implementation are quality, reliability, and durability,” says Mark Verbrugge. “We’d like to get at least three to four years (of testing) on these batteries.” But won't. And what does THAT tell you?

My buddy Mayor sent me this paleolithic (in internet terms) clip of Jay Leno hooning it up in a Tesla Roadster. Production model #1, owned by RSA-born Elon Musk of PayPal, SpaceX and Tesla Motors, in fact. And it looks like a lot of fun (the car). Sure, Leno glad hands the Tesla suit a bit (like when the guy says it "only" takes 3.5 hours to charge), but the car itself  looks pretty damn drool-worthy. 100% torque at any time, at any speed– what's not to love? Now, of course I'm skipping over the part about Tesla Roadsters not– you know– actually existing. And if they did, costing $100k. But let's ignore all that. As "car guys" (and gals), should the opportunity arrive for you to drive electric, would you? I'm a fence sitter.

According to The Economic Times, your local Audi will be singing the car body electric 2018. In fact, Audi chairman of the board Rupert Stadler says he expects diesel and battery technology "to dominate" automotive propulsion in the next five to ten years. "By then we will offer cars without exhaust emissions," Stadler promised, revealing his evil plan to transfer all the carbon burning stuff to power plants. When asked if he felt Audi was "falling behind" rivals Mercedes and BMW in the whole lithium-ion battery-powered hybrid thing, Stadler claimed Audi has a greater [flux] capacity for research than its German competitors. So… Stadler claimed "electric cars offer great opportunities, which we have already seized on." Ooooh. We LIKE hints. But then we're not stock manipulators. 

Is GM abandoning hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicle hype development in favor of battery-powered electrics? Newly enriched Car Czar "Maximum" Bob Lutz seems to be hinting in that direction. In an interview with PetroZero.org, the Volt's godfather indicated The General is considering building a Volt. No seriously. Building a Volt "without engine and all the plumbing" to meet California's new Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate. The engineers responsible for the test fleet of hydrogen-powered Equinox will be delighted to learn that Max Bob "agreed" that "pure EV was the most sensible route [to meet the ZEV requirements] compared to expensive hydrogen powered fuel cells." But MB didn't stop there. (As if.) He concluded if GM builds an EV Volt, they'd have "a pure electric with more range." More range than what? The EV1? And does this indicate that GM's already working on an all-electric Volt, or is Bob just putting his bid in for next year's Bob Lutz Award? Or both? But definitely not neither.

BusinessWeek's David Kiley didn't take kindly to Holman Jenkins' "pretty tedious editorial" against the gas – electric plug-in Chevrolet Volt. To smack down Jenkins piece in yesterday's Wall Street Journal, Kiley hails the Volt as "a new lens through which the U.S. and world will view" GM. He defends GM's late-to-the-game [theoretical] game changer "because [GM] rightly saw that gas-electric hybrids were an inelegant engineering solution for higher fuel economy." (No comment on GM's eventual hybrid opt-in). Kool-Aid quaffed, Kiley turns on Honda. He lambastes the Japanese automaker for producing "the awkward looking Insight to answer the Prius, as well as the Ridgeline pickup and the Element." Huh? Mr. Kiley needs to get a grip; there are plenty of ways to defend the Volt and/or kneecap his critics. But, like GM, he needs to raise his game, quick.