The Center for Automotive Research claims that its latest study [full document in PDF here] is not a forecast of EV sales, but rather “focuses on the expected deployment by states.” Still, by using hybrid vehicle sales to determine deployment patterns, and using a national estimate of electric vehicle market share annually (note: “the national estimates used in this paper do not constitute a CAR forecast and only reflect projections that were available at the time of this study”), the study finds that only 496,000 plug-in vehicles will be on the road by 2015, by which time the Obama Administration hopes to have a million EVs on the road. Still, the report envisions annual sales of plug-in vehicles as growing rapidly, from 77k units in 2012 to 140k annual units by 2015… a number that casts some serious doubt on the Administration’s recent (dubious) estimate that 1.2m vehicles will have been produced for the US market by 2015 (and not for the first time).

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Felix Kramer, an entrepreneur and plug-in car activist, is almost certainly the first person in the world to own both a Nissan Leaf and a Chevrolet Volt… which, at least in theory, makes him the perfect person to compare the real-world ownership experiences of these two highly-hyped vehicles (and once again prove the uselessness of “automotive journalism”). Though he demurs that he “hasn’t had much chance to really compare them,” he tells The Solar Home and Business Journal that

It’s quite obvious to me that for two-car families, it’s no problem in any way for the second vehicle to be an all-electric because that’s the car used for local driving. There’s an enormous market of tens of millions for all-electric vehicles despite Americans’ so-called range anxiety.

Cars are sold as giving you freedom. People go into a dealer and say about an all-electric car, “Oh, I have to plug it in. What if I want to drive it across the country someday? I won’t buy this car.” That mentality is very deeply seated, and that’s part of the reason that the plug-in hybrids could be the primary platform for plug-in vehicles for the next decade or two.

In the meantime, people who get a plug-in hybrid as their second vehicle may find themselves asking, “Why did I pay for this engine, I’m just driving it electrically.” In our family, the Leaf will be the car my wife and I will pick first every day when we’re in the Bay Area. When we’re both driving or we want to travel beyond the range of the Leaf, we’ll take the Volt.

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It’s not out yet, and it won’t be before the end of the year, but Opel is already flogging the Euro-version of the Volt, the Ampera, as the perfect cop car. Main selling point: It’s a veritable multi mission vehicle. “Whether emission free on patrol, or silent during undercover surveillance, or fast and persistent when in hot pursuit – the Opel Ampera is the ideal police cruiser,” brags Opel, which appears to humor AutoBild. Read More >

For quite some time, we have been tracking a growing trend in China: Chinese cars. Well, Chinese cars, made by joint ventures with foreign carmakers. Here could be a new one, with a twist: Toyota so far has been hesitant following Nissan and others on the plugin bandwagon. Its Chinese joint venture, FAW-Toyota, will change that. They will come out with a Chinese-branded car that is a Toyota on the outside, and a Chinese-developed EV on the inside. If the information of BJNews (via Gasgoo) is correct, that is. Read More >

While EVs are slowly, very slowly  – catching on would be exaggerated, people are starting to think about the finer points. For instance: Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids are powered by high-voltage batteries of up to 400 volts, possibly more. What happens if one crashes and first responders have to attack the vehicle with power cutters? Will the responder die from electrical shock? This is a hot topic amongst first responders, right up there with dealing with explosive airbags, belt tensioners and other surprises. Read More >

The attentive reader of TTAC is not surprised by the news provided by Automobilwoche [sub] that Toyota will introduce a plug-in version of its iQ by 2012. It had been on Toyota’s green roadmap for months. The (not really) surprising news is: You won’t be able to buy the EV iQ when it gets launched. Read More >

Back in October, a firm called DBM Energy announced that an Audi A2 fitted with one of its “alpha-polymer” (lithium-metal-polymer) batteries would drive 600km without stopping to recharge or swap batteries, a claim that caused TTAC’s Martin Schwoerer (and others) to sit up and take notice. Schowerer noted

There is nothing new under the sun. You can expect battery capacity-per-weight-unit to expand by around 10% per decade, by incremental improvement. Maybe more. Don’t put your money or stake your rep on anything supposedly revolutionary. There is no way a small four-seater electric can do 600 KM non-stop with one set of batteries (with a $500k fuel cell system: yes, but that’s something else).

Then, days later, the trip was made, and DBM’s battery was hailed as having powered the “Miracle of Berlin.” Of course, Schwoerer pointed out that there were a number of unresolved issues with the stunt, including

DBM Energy GmbH is a mailbox company.

DBM’s website states as contact a non-registered entity named DBM Headquarters, which is located in a smallish office building. In that office building, there are several small-sounding firms such as a long-term storage company, a fire-extinguisher company, and a “battery-service” company.

When companies with no reputation defy the expectations of everyone in the EV business, skepticism is going to take hold. Especially when the car in question burns to a crisp shortly after its record breaking trip.

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What happens when Nissan re-imagines its Leaf EV’s internals into a “sports car of the future,” inspired by its long line of Z cars? You’re looking at it. Nissan will show this Esflow concept at the Geneva Auto Show, and, based on the reaction it receives, they’ll consider a production model. Though it uses Leaf electronics, the Esflow is being presented on a “bespoke” RWD platform, with a pair of electric motors driving the rear wheels. And the Leaf’s battery was likely improved upon for this concept, as Nissan claims about 150 miles of range and a sub-5 second 0-60 time.

In an apparent response to a report detailing the challenges facing President Obama’s goal of getting a million plug-in vehicles on the road, the DOE has released its own report [in PDF here] arguing that the goal is, in fact, achievable. The main thrust of the argument is encapsulated in the table above,

Reaching the goal is not likely to be constrained by production capacity.  Major vehicle manufacturers have announced (or been the subject of media reports) that indicate a cumulative electric drive vehicle manufacturing capacity of over 1.2 million vehicles through 2015.

Ipso-freaking-facto. Done deal, right? Er, no. After all, GM has not confirmed that it will try to build 120k Volts starting next year. In fact, the Bloomberg story cited by the DOE actually says

GM now is working with suppliers to raise 2012 capacity from an earlier target of 60,000. It may not build that many if parts aren’t available or demand isn’t strong enough… Randy Fox, a GM spokesman, declined to comment on production plans. He said he didn’t know how many people have ordered a Volt or how long they will have to wait.

But hey, that sounds good enough for, well, government work. What with Obama’s policy apparently relying on the Volt to make up about half of the volume of plug-ins needed to meet his million-by-2015 goal and all. Meanwhile, Fisker has delayed production of its first car already, and has no in-house manufacturing experience, making its leap from 0-50k units over the next two years more than a little improbable. As for the prospect of Think’s City EV (proud recipient of NHTSA’s first EV recall) selling 20k units considering it’s starting pricing at $34k-$40k (for a tiny, 100-mile-range BEV), well, we wouldn’t bank on it. EV production numbers have consistently been optimistic, and are continually being revised (typically downward). Using them as evidence of the attainability of a political goal seems like a recipe for a one-way trip to “the trough of disappointment.“

Alberta is a province in Canada. A lot is agricultural, but what is much more important are the treasures beneath the soil. Alberta sits on more than 1.7 trillion barrels of bitumen, better known as oil sand. That’s about equal to the world’s total proven reserves of conventional petroleum. Canadians are troubled that EVs might ruin these riches. Read More >

The DetNews points us to a Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration report [full document in PDF format here] that reveals

Approximately $33 million in credits for plug-in electric and alternative-fueled vehicles credits were erroneously claimed by at least 12,920 taxpayers through July 24, 2010, according to a report publicly released today by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA).

That means about 20 percent of the $163.9 million in credits claimed by taxpayers from January 1, 2010 to July 24, 2010 for plug-in electric and alternative motor vehicle credits were claimed in error.

The erroneous claims TIGTA identified resulted from inadequate IRS processes to ensure information reported by individuals claiming the credits met qualifying requirements for vehicle year, placed in-service date, and make and model. TIGTA’s review of electronically filed tax returns identified individuals who erroneously claimed the same vehicle for multiple plug-in electric and alternative motor vehicle credits or claimed an excessive number of vehicles for personal use credits.

Zoinks!
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As TTAC has argued before, electric cars are great… as long as you don’t have to own one. Now, even the automakers are starting to wonder if they should even bother selling the things. BMW, which has already experienced issues with consumer EV letdown, is already starting to back away from the idea of selling (rather than, say, leasing) its much-anticipated Megacity electric city car. Sales Boss Ian Robertson tells Automotive News Europe [sub]

We’re looking for an alternative to traditional purchase or leasing of a vehicle. We don’t want to sell the car, but rather the use of the car. The ‘Car to Go’ concept “is an interesting approach. More and more people in large cities are looking for an alternative to the ownership of a vehicle

Or, more accurately, BMW is looking for an alternative to trying to sell an extremely high-cost, premium EV with killer depreciation. Either way, it seems that OEMs and consumers are starting to meet in the middle on this whole EV thing…

Surprised? Don’t be. President Obama’s goal of getting a million EVs on the road by 2015 is headed nowhere without some serious changes, as the OEM EVs are stuck with high prices in the short term and capacity ramp-ups in the middle term. Making progress on either the price point or the production numbers (both of which are necessary to punch EVs into the mainstream) isn’t going to happen unless gas prices skyrocket or, as Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn puts it, government “jump starts” the market. Now, Automotive News [sub] reports that an Indiana University study argues that Obama’s million-EV goal might not be accomplished by 202 without further government assistance. On the other hand,

With increased government intervention and perhaps a global surge in oil prices, electric vehicles could capture as much as 15 percent of the U.S. market by 2025-30

By which point, the CAFE standard could well be 62 MPG combined (unadjusted)… making the argument for EVs even tougher. But now we’re getting ahead of ourselves…
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My home state of Oregon has the unfortunate distinction of pioneering the practice of pay-per–mile taxation, having studied the GPS tracking approach to road taxes in a pilot program back in 2005-2007. Originally, the track-and-tax scheme was envisioned as a replacement for the gas tax, but now it’s being raised as a way of taxing motorists who go without gasoline altogether. The Eugene Register Guard reports

A bill before the Oregon Legislature aims to deal with the government’s potential beefs with a growing fleet of cars and trucks that never stop for fuel at a gas station: that they don’t ever pay the gas tax that helps cover the cost of state and local road construction and maintenance.

Under House Bill 2328, those drivers would pay a “vehicle road usage charge,” starting with model year 2014 electric vehicles and plug-in gas-electric hybrids.

Proponents say the bill will build on lessons learned from the pilot testing, and avoids the legitimate concerns about pay-per-mile which were first raised by the pilot project’s report. But does taxing EVs actually make sense, or is this just the politically-palatable first step towards an Orwellian nightmare of GPS vehicle tracking? Meanwhile, doesn’t the State of Oregon give up to $750 in tax credits for EV purchases? Mixed messages much?

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In 1961, President John F. Kennedy said in a speech to a joint session of Congress: “I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to Earth.” On 21 July 1969, Neil Armstrong became the first man to set foot on the Moon. The Apollo 11 crew returned safely to Earth on 24 July. Three years later, the Moon had its last visitors. The Sea of  Tranquility lives up to its name.

In last week’s State of the Union speech, President Barack Obama’s set an even more audacious goal. Read More >