When GM was in its final throes (about 2000 onwards) it was quite easy to see that GM would go under. Even though they were posting records profits, anyone but the shills knew that these profits came from the SUV boom and not from any long term sustainable plan. That’s fair to say, right? So now let’s move to Toyota. The cry I hear, these days, is “Toyota is the new GM! Toyota is the new GM!” (Why people have to say things twice, I’ve no idea. I’m not deaf, just stupid.) And there is certainly some evidence to suggest that. Piling on the incentives, suspect quality, etc. But then something comes along which, seemingly, blows that theory out of the water. Read More >

BMW is on a roll at the moment. They’ve booted Mercedes-Benz (their most hated rival) off the number one slot in India, they’re making big steps in China and their profit is rising fast. That last point is the fulcrum of this article. You see, profit is where BMW is forecast to have problems. Not lack of profits, but the size of them. Read More >

Worried about the Chinese grabbing a piece of GM while it’s cheap? Don’t feel like the lone ranger. China is joining  an illustrious circle of investors from Kuwait, Abu Dhabi and around the world and grabbed a “notable” stake in Daimler. An unnamed Chinese institutional investor has bought a chunk of Daimler, as their CFO Bodo Uebber told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), which sent an advance copy to Reuters. Read More >

Er, not here… you have to go over to retailroadshow.com for the non-embeddable presentation pitching investors on the new General Motors. But since retailroadshow doesn’t have a comments section, make sure to surf back to TTAC when you’re done taking in the pitch. Meanwhile, consider this: Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Bin Abdulaziz Alsaud, a major investor in Citi, EuroDisney, The Four Seasons, AOL, Apple, News Corp, and more has said his investment firm would look “very seriously” at buying into GM’s IPO. Oh yes, and the White House has reiterated its confidence that all the money it invested in GM’s bailout would be repaid. Even though GM pushed against the higher IPO price ($30/share) requested by Treasury, which would have slowed future appreciation of the stock, but would have given the government a higher initial payback. Also, it seems that UBS has been dropped as an underwriter of the IPO after one of its large-cap, non-automotive analysts sent an email that disclosed information restricted by the SEC.

With its IPO hitting markets, GM has released limited preliminary results that show the firm earned $1.9b to $2.1b in the third quarter of this year. That performance outstripped Ford’s $1.73b Q3 profit, and GM’s $36b in revenue also beat Ford’s $29b figure for the same quarter. GM also announced that it expects to generate positive EBIT in the fourth quarter, although it warned that its Q4 results would not be as strong as the previous three quarters in which GM claims to have earned $4b to $4.2b in net income attributable to shareholders. The projection of weaker Q4 results proves that political considerations weren’t the only factor pushing for an immediate post-election IPO. One note of warning, however: GM has not released complete data on its results, meaning we haven’t seen the impact of GM’s recent debt-cutting moves on cashflow. On the other hand, with a $5b revolving line of credit secured and profits rolling in, GM isn’t likely to be facing liquidity problems in the immediate short term. We’ll wait for full results before we pass final judgment, however.

Honda is finally doing something against the ever stronger yen: They are selling more cars to make up the difference. Honda’s CFO  Yoichi Hojo told The Nikkei [sub] today that his company can make profits, even with the yen at its current near-record high against the dollar, if it can increase its global sales by 200,000 vehicles per year. The figure is already in their current budget. In the current fiscal, which ends March 31,2011, the want to sell 3.615m vehicles worldwide, modestly up from 3.392m a year earlier. They’ll probably do better. Read More >

Perhaps one of the least-covered elements of the auto industry restructuring has been the numerous tax advantages GM has earned as a government-owned automaker. Unlike most bankruptcies, GM was allowed to hold onto some $16b of net operating loss credits (tax-loss carry-forwards), which can be used to offset future tax bills. Typically, companies that restructure in bankruptcy lose existing carry-forwards as the price of wiping out debt, but because the government is invested in GM, it decided to allow old tax losses to flow into the new company even as debt was left behind. In the latest update on this story, The Wall Street Journal notes that some $18.9b of GM’s carry-forwards were from the old company, and that the firm has a whopping $45.4b in future tax savings. And because carry-forwards can be banked up to 20 years before they are spent, GM will have to make massive profits before it starts actually paying taxes to the federal government. The government’s position:

the profit-shielding tax credit makes the bailed-out companies more attractive to investors, and that the value of the benefit is greater than the lost tax payments, especially since the tax payments would not exist if the companies fail

Which is all well and good, but the reality is also that this practically doubles the taxpayers’ cost of bailing out GM. As a policy this makes sense for the reasons given (assuming the bailout was a foregone conclusion), but it would be nice if this “hidden charge” were at least noted on the bill.

The Sixth Sense. The “Saw” movies. The Vanishing (Original Dutch version). The Fight Club. What do all these films have in common? They are like the “Porsche-Volkswagen” saga. Always an unexpected twist. Let’s start at the beginning. When Porsche tried to takeover Volkswagen, it really was a case of the mouse biting the lion. The reality set in, the credit markets collapsed, and Volkswagen went from being the takeovee to the takeover…er (how I managed to pass English is a complete mystery to me). [ED. Takeoveror?] But like any good saga, there’s got to be a final bite and there’s a 30 percent chance this one will happen. Read More >

Reuters has followed up its look inside the Government’s involvement in GM with a breaking report on the specifics of The General’s IPO. According to Reuters sources, the IPO will include 365 million common shares for $26 to $29 each, for a total of between $9.5b and $10b. The Treasury is expected to sell between $1.5b and $2b of its 61 percent stake in GM, likely to “four or five sovereign wealth funds,” bringing its stake down to 43.3 percent. The Canadian and Ontario governments are expected to sell down their stake from 11.7 percent to 9.6 percent, while the UAW VEBA trust-owned stake is likely to to drop from 17.5 percent to 15 percent. A Reuters source concludes that

The IPO would likely value the entire company at close to $60 billion, below the $67 billion needed if U.S. taxpayers are to break even on the common stock held by the Treasury

The WSJ adds

At the midpoint of the proposed price range, GM’s stock outstanding, including warrants, would be worth about $50 billion, roughly the same level as Ford Motor Co. The IPO’s underwriters are hoping to sell at the top end of the range, and for the stock to rise 20% or more when trading begins. At that level, GM could be worth $60 billion or more.

Read More >

What’s that up in the sky? Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s the blue oval! Yes, everyone favorite car company is flying high. Fresh off the news that it made $1.7 billion between July and September and that they paid off some more of their big debts, people are talking big of Ford. “They’re in the best shape that they’ve been in for years,” said Shelly Lombard of Gimme Credit (I checked it out, they have their own website) via TMCnet.com. But Ford, through whatever reason, but I reckon it’s fiscal prudence, is staying cautious. Read More >

With about $7.84b of cash on-hand and $7.4b in debt to the US and Canadian governments, Chrysler wants to take a page out of GM’s IPO playbook and secure a Wall Street refinance of its government debt, which bears interest of between 14 and 20 percent. CEO Sergio Marchionne had already complained that servicing its government debt prevented Chrysler from achieving profitability in the second quarter. According to Automotive News [sub] Chryler is shopping banks as it seeks loans at newly-low interest rates in order to shore up its balance book ahead of an IPO sometime next year. Chrysler needs $3b of cash on-hand for its operating and debt servicing costs, so a failure to secure new funding could cause its cash levels to dip to dangerous levels. GM has said that its recently-acquired $5b revolving credit line would not be tapped right away, but would provide a liquidity cushion of the kind that Chrysler arguably needs even more than The General. On the other hand, it’s easier to borrow money when you have money, and GM is sitting on considerably more cash than Chrysler. Meanwhile, Fiat has yet to inject a single Euro of cash into Chrysler. Maybe this is Marchionne’s chance to put some real skin in his Chrysler play.

Since we’ve already irritated Saabistas by posting a comparison of the Nissan Juke to the 96, we might as well just come out and say it: Saab is one sick puppy. Third quarter results are out for the Dutch-Swedish automaker, and they’re not good: the firm has lost $70m on an operating basis last quarter, and has burnt through $160m in the the first nine months of 2010 [full results in PDF here]. Wholesale and retail sales in the first three quarters were down by 10 percent and 45 percent respectively compared to the first nine months of 2009, and Saab has cut its 2010 sales projections from 45,000 units to 30,000 units, or half of the 60k projection Saab started 2010 with. Improbably, the company still believes it will sell 80,000 Saabs next year, and 120,000 in 2012. And though Saab-Spyker has a negative equity of about $234m, the company says it does not need to recapitalize. In other words, comparisons to the Nissan Juke are the very least of Saab’s worries.

News that the government will sell only $6b-$8b worth of its GM equity has been joined by an even more surprising GM IPO announcement: GM will buy the Treasury’s entire $2.1b holding of preferred stock in the initial offering. GM has not announced how much it will pay for the stake, and the Detroit News reports that it’s not yet clear if GM will also buy some $400m in preferred stock held by the Canadian and Ontario governments. We’re also getting word via Twitter that GM will put $4b in cash and $2b worth of its stock into its overdrawn UAW pension fund, as well as making a $2.8b payment to the UAW VEBA account. With a $5b line of credit secured, GM says these and other steps will reduce its debt by $11b over an unspecified timeline. And speaking to Reuters, GM CEO Dan Akerson made it clear what the point of these moves are:

It’s up to people like you and me, the burden we share, that we deliver on the promise and return the investment to the American taxpayers. We are going to do our level best to make that happen, and we will only do that by expanding our industrial base and entering new markets and being a better competitor.

Of course, we’ll have to see what value The General places on the preferred stock to know how seriously Akerson should be taken. After all, talk is cheap and money isn’t. [UPDATE: It appears that GM will buy the preferred stock for $25.50 each, essentially giving the Government its book value of $2.14b]

Although the Korean Won has stayed strong this year, hurting the profitability of Korean exports, Hyundai has banked $1.2b in profits in the first three quarters of 2010, reports Automotive News [sub]. Analysts had expected the resurgent automaker to earn closer to $1b in profits, but they say that an even stronger Yen has helped Hyundai cut into the sales of its Japanese competitors. And with a new Elantra, Equus, Sonata Wagon, Veloster sports coupe and other much-anticipated products about to hit the market, Hyundai is expected to keep its momentum rolling. Fujio Ando, adviser at Chibagin Asset management explains

As the Japanese Yen reaches new highs against the US Dollar, so does the anxiety in Japanese boardrooms. How does an export-heavy country like Japan cope with an ever appreciating currency? That’s the topic of conversation at Nissan HQ. The Wall Street Journal reports that Nissan’s COO, Toshiyuki Shiga, is concerned. Extremely concerned.

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