Sweden’s prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt had his fill of failed negotiations. Returning home from round-the-clock talks at the Copenhagen climate conference, he said that he saw the Saab collapse coming. Sweden’s prime minister is “unsurprised” by the collapse of the sale, says Reuters. Asked if he was surprised, Reinfeldt said: “No, the process was built around a loss-making company and an American owner that owned Saab for 20 years and made a profit in one of the 20. It’s clear that it was not successful enough.” Sweden’s head blames GM for the failure. Read More >
Credit reporting agency TransUnion is forecasting a rise in auto loan delinquencies next year, adding to the list of factors that could slow a turnaround in auto sector sales and profits in 2010. 60-day auto loan delinquency has been rising throughout 2009, reports the WSJ, as tighter lending standards have increased the ratio of delinquencies in outstanding loans. Those tighter standards sill contribute to a slight downturn in delinquencies in the first half of next year TransUnion’s Peter Turek tells Automotive News [sub], but by halfway through the year those numbers should increase again. Nationwide, TransUnion reckons .92 of all auto loans will be in delinquency by the end of 2010, compared to .86 at the end of this year. The average national auto debt is $12,542, and the Freep reports that loan terms are falling and average credit scores for approved loans are rising.
GM Chairman and CEO Ed Whitacre has made his first real media availability today, answering questions on a number of issues including the deal that sent control of GM’s most important Chinese joint venture to its partner, SAIC. According to Whitacre, the deal was put in place by former CEO Fritz Henderson. “It was sort of done before I got here,” Whitacre tells Reuters. Not to worry though, Whitacre has met with his counterpart at SAIC and was assured that “the nature of the partnership would not change.” Meanwhile, Gasgoo all but confirms that the rationale behind the deal is competition in India’s small-car sweepstakes, as a $3,500 sub-Spark model is apparently being planned to compliment the GM-SAIC-Wuling commercial vans that will spearhead the effort. Given how crowded India’s small car market is shaping up to be, it’s interesting that Whitacre didn’t cancel the agreement as he did with Henderson’s deal to sell Opel to Magna. And as for Henderson’s departure? “There was just a common agreement that what you want to do is not what I want to do,” says Whitacre.
Ford will be taking a conservative approach to 2010, according to Chairman Bill Ford, who tells Automotive News [sub] that unemployment makes him most pessimistic about the year to come.
We’re not planning for a huge pickup next year. If we get one, great, we’ll ride it. We’re planning conservatively. Just as we did this year, we’ve kept our inventories low. If things start to pop for the better, we’ll adjust our production upward and go that way
And why not? Ford’s stock price has soared over the last year, since falling under $2 a year ago. This despite the fact that the Blue Oval is mortgaged to the hilt and will miss profitability for 2009. But because Ford believes that, as President of the Americas Mark Fields puts it, “our plan is working,” the bonuses are coming back for Ford’s white-collar employees.
“A Flush GM to Lavish Cash On New Vehicles,” goes the NY Times headline, forshadowing the kind of profligacy that only happens when you have $42.6 billion of taxpayer money burning a hole in the corporate pockets. From the next generation of truck and SUV platforms to the Cadillac Alpha (known in-house as “BMW Fighter”), that money is going towards products…. at least it is when it’s not going to faltering overseas operations. And in most cases that’s a good thing. For example, Mark Reuss explains “ with the BMW fighter, the steering in that vehicle is going to be absolutely critical. In the past we would have gone to the lowest cost source, but not anymore.” Well, good on ya, mate. When it comes to the Volt though, the money doesn’t seem like it’s being quite as well spent.
A few days ago, TTAC reported that PSA and Mitsubishi were looking to forge closer ties with either a cross holding format, like Renault-Nissan, or by PSA taking a 30-50 percent stake in Mitsubishi. According to Bloomberg, analysts like Oppenheim’s Jens Schattner are ruling out equity acquisitions, saying the two firms should concentrate more on co-operation. “Peugeot doesn’t have the liquidity to take a major Mitsubishi stake in cash” he says, and he’s not the only one splashing cold water on the hook-up. Eric-Alain Michelis, an analyst at Societe Generale adds that PSA may have to issue new shares to pay for that stake in Mitsubishi they want, which will not please the Peugeot family as it will dilute their holding. Otherwise, “raising the finance would not be a walk in the park,” he reminds. Were PSA to issue shares to cover €1 billion of the $3.7billion needed for a 50% stake in Mitsubishi Motors, it would reduce the Peugeot family’s investment to 25%. Quelle horror!
Fresh details on GM’s Asian wranglings are coming in, and it seems that SAIC paid The General a mere $85m for the one percent needed to control the joint venture. GM’s Nick Reilly tells the New York Times:
the 51 percent stake would give S.A.I.C. the right to approve the venture’s budget, future plans and senior management. But the venture has a cooperative spirit in which S.A.I.C. has already been able to do so… S.A.I.C. wanted to have a majority stake to consolidate the venture in its financial reporting
Which is about as credible as the conclusion that the Shanghai and India deals are going to provide GM International with a meaningful amount of cash with which to rescue its European and Korean divisions. As it turns out, the Indian deal isn’t going to translate into free cash for GM. GM and SAIC will set up a joint Hong Kong-based investment company, which GM will give its Indian operations and SAIC will fund with $300-$530m, bringing its overall value to $650m.
Japans currency rose to a 14-year high against the dollar last week, prompting fears that the island nation’s exports could be dramatically affected. And no firm stands to lose as much Toyota, which had been operating under the highest assumed exchange rate of any of Japan’s auto exporters. Reuters reports that ToMoCo had pegged the rate at 90 yen to the dollar, some five yen higher than rivals Honda and Nissan. With the Yen trading at 86.29 to the dollar, that assumption could add up to big losses: Toyota reckons that for every one yen drop against the dollar, operating profits will decline some 30b Yen due to the fact that it exports over half of its Japanese-made automobiles, most of which head to market in the US. Aizawa Securities analyst Toshiro Yashinaga explains that Toyota, more than any other Japanese firm, is riding the razor’s edge.
Carmakers that issued big profit warnings last year have set cautious forex assumptions this time, so roughly speaking the current rates are within expectations. But there are views that the dollar could sink even further in 2010, to the 70s (yen), and in that sense Honda and Nissan, which are relatively strong in emerging markets, are in the winning camp
Japan’s government has thus far resisted calls to intervene in the Yen’s exchange rate. As if Toyota’s heavy exposure to the moribund US market weren’t bad enough, exchange rate uncertainty could make Toyota’s second-straight loss even worse than expected when the firm announces its fiscal year-end results in March.
Managing debt is a most American exercise, and after finishing the third quarter of this year owing $26.9b in debt, Ford is in management mode. According to Reuters, Ford will repay $1.9b of its $10.7b “mother of all subprime mortgages” revolving credit line, part of $23.5b in loans Ford backed with all of its assets (up to and including its logo) in 2006. $7.2 billion of revolver debt is being pushed on down the road though, from November 2011 to November 2013, and $724m has been converted to a term loan due in December 2013. More worryingly, lenders refused to roll over $886m of the debt Ford requested, bringing it due in December 2011.
General Motors made one point very clear, 100 percent clear, the restructuring plan could only be achieved when European member states with Opel plants give some financial help. So the plan works only with state aid. The idea that General Motors can finance this on its own was not shared by General Motors, this possibility does unfortunately not exist
EU Industry Minister Guenter Verheugen reveals to Automotive News [sub] that GM does indeed seem to be trying to limit the amount of US taxpayer money spent on its $4.9b rescue of Opel. GM’s Opel fixer Nick Reilly explains “we have indicated that we will inject some GM funds into that requirement too. That is quite difficult because we are also going through a restructuring of our U.S. operations and other parts of the world.” We’ve already seen loans for jobs floated in the UK, where Reilly came up just short of offering to save Vauxhall jobs for government restructuring loans on a quid-pro-quo basis. And GM will have to continue walking that fine line, as EU competition rules forbid member states from offering financial support in exchange for jobs, especially if the saved jobs come at the expense of jobs in another EU member state. But Germany’s leadership was humiliated by GM’s decision to drop the sale of Opel to Magna, and has already ruled out funding an Opel restructuring that would keep the automaker under GM control. Will Belgium, Spain and the UK be able to come up with enough money to make the restructuring happen? Or will GM simply be forced to dip deeper into its taxpayer-funded escrow account? GM’s plan will be announced this week, and we’ll be watching.
Reuters reports that Tesla is planning an Initial Public Offering, after postponing planned IPOs in 2008 and 2009. Tesla reportedly hopes to capitalize on the recent success of battery developer A123 Systems, on the assumption that the A123 IPO has raised interest in electric auto firms. According to one of Reuters’ sources, Tesla’s IPO filing could be made “within days.” And the Silicon Valley startup, which currently has only one product, the $100k+ Tesla Roadster, will most likely have to hurry. Both Nissan and General Motors plan to enter the electric car market this year, marking the initial entries by established auto OEMs into the American EV market. Both of their initial products, the estimated $30k Nissan Leaf and the estimated $40k Chevrolet Volt, will cost considerably less than Tesla’s estimated $50k Model S sedan and will beat it to market by at least a year. Acquiring funding after cheaper competing models go on sale could be extremely challenging for a boutique automaker like Tesla.
UBS has cut Fiat’s rating from “buy” to “neutral”. UBS cites its cautious views on car demand in Europe and Brazil as well as heavy trucks and machinery, the areas in which Fiat are strongest. UBS notes that Sergio Marchionne’s grand scenario of spinning off Fiat’s auto division is still the company’s goal, and PSA Peugeot-Citroen as a “likely candidate”. In the near term, UBS thinks that Fiat’s market share price of €10 per share is fair, as a consolidated manufacturer. Another reason why UBS cut Fiat: Chrysler. The article finishes with a stark warning that the “value of Chrysler to Fiat has been cut to 1 euro from 2 euros.” In the interest of fairness, we shouldn’t listen too much to the stock market as these are the same people who proclaimed that the banking sector was in rude health, right up until they asked for a bailout, catching the market “by surprise”. Especially considering Sergio Marchionne is the non-executive vice chairman of UBS’s board of directors. These caveats aside though, it’s important to note that Chrysler has realistically gotten Fiat no closer to the magical 5m annual sales number it needs to spin off its auto business, nor has it added real value. And Marchionne is apparently eying up PSA as the next target in his mad march to world domination. What a gas.
Looks like GM may have done some creative accounting after all – at least according to Swedish Government and their consulting firm KPMG. As we’ve reported the last couple of days, Saab’s rescue has been hanging by a thread due to questions around the company’s financial situation prior to the start of the financial crisis. Saab needs the EU to approve the Swedish Government’s guarantee of an EIB loan to Koenigsegg group if the deal is going to go through. If Saab, during the summer of 2008 – when the financial crisis started – were not in sound financial condition, the EU cannot, will not, approve Swedish government’s guarantees to the EIB loan, and the loan will not be granted. And reports from di.se yesterday almost laid that possibility to rest, with reports that GM had lost $ 5.100,- on each Saab-car sold during the last 8 years. Now, as commentator dlfcohn and others at ttac, as well as several commentators at di.se have pointed out, creative accounting can be useful in major corporates i.e to avoid taxes in tax-heavy countries. This, apparently (at least according to Swed.gov’t/KPMG) was the case with GM/Saab. Read More >
Reuters reports that Aabar Investments is considering increasing their stake in Daimler AG from 9.1% to 15%. Aabar is already Daimler largest shareholder and this move, should it happen, will further cement this position. The Abu Dhabi investment fund paid $2.7 billion for the 9.1% stake when the share price €20.77. Since then, the share price of Daimler has rocketed 77% and on the news of Aabar mulling a bigger stake, the share price rose by 4.4% to €35.81 per share. Daniel Schwarz, an analyst with Commerzbank AG said “It’s a positive signal that a large shareholder is showing a long term commitment”. But the strength of the fund’s love for Daimler doesn’t just extend to this increased stake.
Swedish business site di.se has done some numbercrunching, and figured out that GM has lost SEK 35,000,- (eq aprox $ 5,100, at the current exchange rate) on each Saab sold the last 8 years. As many of TTAC’s readers have pointed out in various comments, GM never made money on Saab. Truth is; they lost a total of SEK 39 billion (3.9 billion Euros) during their ownership, according to di.se’s analysis . The last 8 years has been heavy; a loss of SEK 32,2 billion, or 35.000,- kronor on each Saab sold. That’s $ 5.100,- on each car. This year alone GM has had to take an SEK 6.2 billion cost on the ailing carmaker, SEK 5.2 of those are amortization of debts. This is why it’s crucial for Koenigsegg Group that the EU commission rules that Swedish government’s guarantees on Koenigsegg’s loan from the EIB are not subsidies. But since Saab has been on life support for so long, it would be almost impossible to defend Saab as a healthy company, and without the Swedish government’s guarantee, the financial plan from Koenigsegg Group will fail. Maybe they can argue that when it comes to Saab, there are no subsidies, just business as usual.
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