“We’re likely to have to put in less capital [to GMAC] than we expected,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee earlier today. Which raises six major questions. First, huh? GMAC has already received not one but two direct injections of federal taxpayer assistance. Why are we arguing over amounts rather than the question of whether or not we should draw a line under the fetid financier and call it quits? Second, when did Geithner’s mob/GMAC figure out that $12.5 billion wouldn’t be enough to keep the lame-ass lender afloat? Third, why hasn’t anyone been called on to the carpet (i.e. shit-canned) for underestimating the federal teat provision needed to prop-up these sub-prime pricks? Fourth, how much taxpayer money did U.S. Treasury Secretary think GMAC would need to stay afloat—you know; before he figured out that the meshugganah money men didn’t need quite so much? Fifth, how much new capital does GMAC need anyway? And sixth, why should we believe we will ever get this money back? Which brings us back to d’oh. “The only thing we’re doing is making sure we follow through on that commitment,” Geithner testified. Or, as the Brits would say, in for a penny, what’s yours is mine.

The WSJ reports that GM will draw “north of $2.5b” from its government escrow account to fund its own bailout of its major supplier, Delphi. Considering GM has committed $1b in debt assumption, $2b in forgiven claims and $1.75b in investments, we can assume the amount will be well north of $2.5b. But how much is left in that escrow account anyway? Estimates at the time of GM’s exit from bankruptcy were that some $20b was left to draw upon. And we’ll know exactly how much is left when GM discloses its government-money expenditures to the SEC by the end of this week. GM sources claim the money has not been used to cover operating shortfalls, and CEO Fritz Henderson has even gone on the record to say GM will not need further government assistance. Considering GM’s cash burn over the last four years was in the $10b/year range, let’s hope that claim isn’t entirely based on the assumption that a planned IPO next summer will be a rousing success.

No, we’re not talking about genuine job creation or a tax holiday for convicted felons. Well actually, we are. GMAC was given one humdinger of a present last year with $12.8 billion nestled near an open fire. That fire has now consumed nearly all that money. So the question now is what you should do if you were an involuntary investor in this black hole venture. Sue? Protest? Burn an abandoned house or two? Naaahh… just let the politicians shovel the greenery of course. The latest number under the bow is between $2.8 billion and $5.6 billion. Just in time to shop for more lobbying influence. Anyone need a sweetheart deal on their home mortgage? car? 401k plan? Contact your representative stat!

It’s your classic case of schlechte/gute Nachrichten. Post-Chrysler Daimler is predicting positive earnings in the fourth financial quarter—before interest and tax. After that, after the federal money’s gone, things will go from worse to worserer. “Global demand for cars should fall this year by only around 10 percent thanks to state incentives . . . Negative effects on demand can be expected when the state support programs are phased out in the following years, particularly in the volume segments of more mature markets.” Reuters’ numbers tell the tale. Sales at Daimler’s high margin division, Mercedes-Benz Cars, fell by 15.7 percent in the first three quarters of the year to 825,600 vehicles. Remember: that’s compared with last year, which was no sales bonanza, Hoss. Without a buoyant Chinese market uh, buoying Mercedes, the numbers would be even bleakerer. Meanwhile, Automotive News reports that Honda has revised and tripled its profit forecast—and sounded the same alarm. “Honda, the world’s seventh-biggest carmaker, attributed the bulk of the revision to state-backed measures to stimulate sales and warned a real recovery in demand was still some time off.”

Is anyone surprised that the lawyers who guided “old” GM into the dustbin of history scored $255,555 a day for 90 days? The $23 million price tag seems like small beer to me. According to The Detroit News, “AP Services, headed by Al Koch, who doubles as the chief restructuring officer of GM’s bankruptcy estate, had a team of 153 people working on GM’s bankruptcy case, and several charged $835 an hour in June.” Fair enough, you know, for a $50 billion-plus taxpayer “investment.” Besides, AP dropped their rates when the Justice Department bitched about them to a federal judge. Of course, the move wasn’t retroactive. But then, why would it be?

When the history of the 2008/2009 federal bailouts is finally written, the chapters on Cerberus’ federal teat suckage will contain some of the best/worst examples of insider sweetheart deals between failed financiers and Uncle Sam. Deals that protected their protagonists from genuine accountability for their actions, and inaction. Case in point: Cerberus-owned GMAC’s eleventh-hour, Christmas Eve exemption from FDIC banking laws. GMAC’s Board Member, former U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, brokered the get-out-of-C11-free card and subsequent $6 billion bailout. Dirty? How about the fact that GMAC’s then-Chairman’s J. Ezra Merkin’s was up to his eyeballs in Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. OK, so, here we are. When federal Pay Czar Kenneth J. Feinberg announced that executives at ChryCo Financial wouldn’t get as close a haircut as their colleagues everywhere else, his explanation let the C11 cat out of the bag.

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The Wall Street Journal reports that GM is developing a plan B, should the European Union decide that the German government subsidies upon which the Opel deal depends are a violation of some rule or another. “[EU competition commissioner Neelie] Kroes pointed to ‘significant indications’ that Germany had made €4.5 billion ($6.72 billion) in state aid for Opel contingent on Magna winning the bid, therefore violating EU state aid and market rules.” GM now has a window of opportunity to reconsider the whole schmeer—as does the German government, Magna and their Russian sponsors. GM’s backup plan? Keep control of Opel and implement “deeper restructuring actions than Magna is planning . . . GM would fund the restructuring, which includes far more drastic headcount reductions, by soliciting government support or putting Opel into insolvency.” Which should be popular with about-to-strike Opel workers. Oh, and which government was that? Our government? No, of course not. Still, he/she who owns the gold . . .

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Yesterday’s New York Times published an article dissing Detroit in the Breakingviews.com bit of their Business Section. In a stunning if perhaps singular piece of journalism, the Gray Lady affirms TTAC’s nine-year rant record of castigating Chrysler, Ford and GM for refusing to remove their rose-colored glasses. In fact, Anthony Currie calls Motown’s mavens a bunch of deluded, delusional and/or deluding dunces—albeit in that gently chiding, hugely condescending, entirely arch way that typifies the Times. To wit: “It did not take long for Detroit’s carmakers to return to one of their favorite pastimes. As General Motors approaches 100 days since emerging from bankruptcy, each of the Big Three’s bosses has been indulging in painting rosy scenarios for their firms. But like pronouncements past, they’re a tad premature.” I used to play tennis with Tad Premature. Smashing fellow. A bit too cocky. Anywho, Currie starts his diatribe by taking Ford’s semi-canonized CEO to task for predicting a phantom sales revival for the end of 2009 (who saw that one not coming?). Followed by the usual FoMoCo fellating. Still, point taken. As for Chrysler and GM . . .

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Spats between automakers and the Detroit press are a rare thing. But spats between GM and the Detroit Free Press? Let’s just say few things last longer in this world than lapdogs that nip. So GM is going after the Freep with a spray bottle for daring to suggest that a 2.8m unit production plan for 2010 might be reminiscent of old, bad GM. Apparently the Freep only got it wrong on one point: unfounded optimism, self-sabotage and disfunctional communication are still very much part of New GM. Oh yeah, and CAPS LOCK is along for the ride. Mike DiGiovanni, GM’s Executive Director of Corporate Planning and Alliances reponds at Fastlane

GM had indicated in a media call that it could produce upwards of 2.8 million units in North America — this is a number we COULD do…it’s not the number we necessarily WILL do. We only plan and report production estimates by quarter to reflect the current economic climate.

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“What do you think the percentage likelihood is that, if we give this deal a chance, it will succeed?” Rattner didn’t make the decision any easier. “Fifty-one per cent,” he said. “But, Mr. President, in my experience, deals get worse, not better, over time.”

Ryan Lizza recounts the decision to bail out Chrysler in his epic New Yorker piece on Larry Summers and the president’s economic team [via Kausfiles]. This exchange came after the economic council split 4-4 on the automaker bailout, and Rattner was identified as the tie-breaking vote. Is it safe to say now that nobody expects Chrysler to survive?

GM has jettisoned tens of billions of dollars worth of corporate debt. They’ve folded four out of eight of their U.S. brands (HUMMER, Saab, Saturn and Pontiac). They’ve dismissed white collar workers and contained union health care costs. They’ve shuttered factories, trimmed dealers, revised their marketing strategy and released new products. And they’re still taking in less money than they spend. Until and unless that occurs, or threatens to occur, the chances that the nationalized automaker will de-nationalizing itself are less than the chances that GM lifer and CEO Fritz Henderson will introduce accountability into GM’s cancerous corporate culture. Sure, as mid-term elections approach, the feds may try to game the system, offering some kind of IPO-enabling investor “protection.” But, like a “real” bankruptcy, the idea of a “real” GM IPO in 2010 lies somewhere between utterly preposterous and infinitely delusional. Any investor-pleasing turnaround would require a sudden sea change in consumer confidence in GM’s products and a dramatic, robust recovery in the U.S. car market. And yet, the Boyz at RenCen are talking-up the IPO via Automotive News [sub]. At the same time that they’re playing it down. No surprise there . . .

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Ya think? Still, it’s nice to hear the beneficiaries of over $50 billion in taxpayer assistance acknowledge the simple fact that Chevrolet must carry the can for the New GM. “Chevrolet is going to take on a larger role as we go from eight brands to four,” Brent Dewar asserted in a statement that demonstrated his command of English understatement—or represented a worrying obvious insight into what he’s supposed to do for a living. “Here in North America we are going to be responsible for 70 percent of volumes.” Automotive News [sub] runs the numbers. “Chevrolet has represented more than 60 percent of GM’s sales so far in 2009, compared with 54 percent in 2002.” Yes, well, as GM’s U.S. market share has been on a downward trajectory since 1982—dropping 29 points in 27 years—one wonders if  Chevy’s entirely theoretical 10 percent growth would be enough to save the sinking ship. Anyone want to know how Mr. Dewar plans on raising the Titanic?

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Unlike Chrysler and GM, Ford has managed to minimize the downward depreciation spiral that’s been plaguing business models across Detroit. In fact, FoMoCo has increased its net pricing by $1.9b in the first half of this year alone. Ford explains this achievement with a reach back to history: a team of 19 P.H.D.s tasked with managing pricing, production and option mixes is given credit, and compared with the “Whiz Kids” of the post-war era in the Detroit News. “They are unbelievable,” gushes Ford’s Jim Farley. “It’s very scientific. I’ve never seen anything like it in our industry.” The Global Lifecycle Analytics Department (GLAD) was formed in 2000, as a modern-day equivalent to the statistical analysis pioneers hired to bring Ford back from the brink of oblivion in the 1940s. By 2005 the team, led by Rose “The Silent Lamb” Peng, had figured out that “the resale value of Ford’s cars and trucks was being eroded by sales of poorly contented vehicles to rental agencies.” Go figure. Let’s hear it for statistical analysis.

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Laugh, said an anonymous sage, and the world laughs with you. The corollary to which apparently, is “make unrealistic predictions of your own success and the world laughs at you.” Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne is finding this out the hard way, having predicted in a Globe and Mail interview that his Auburn Hills-based bailout baby will be making money “in the next 24 months.” And how, pray, does Marchionne expect to achieve the impossible? Marchionne insists his goal is achievable “because we have decided not to flog inventory, because we’re disciplined about production, because we’re going to try not to discount the vehicles. If [discounts are] the only way I can sell them, I’d prefer not to produce them because I’m not making any money.” But is there some other way of selling Chryslers?

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GM and Sichuan Tzenzhong hope to close the Hummer deal within the next few days, reports Automotive News [sub]. GM expects to receive $150m for the brand, or about $1m per dealer (pre-cull). Incidentally, GM made each of those dealers pay up to $15m for the “brand faithful” (read: garish) dealership upgrades pictured above. Not to get  all Lou Dobbs about it, but GM already turned down $100m from an American bidder too. But hey, $50m is $50m. Just ask the Hummer dealers. Meanwhile, who else is ready for Hummer to become a symbol of China?