The Freep reports that Fitch is eying another credit downgrade for Chrysler LLC. Why? Where to begin? Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli could have been too forthcoming in his House Financial Services Committee testimony. You know, the parts about being in “a very fragile position,” having only $6b, and having already drawn up bankruptcy plans. Or maybe it’s the JP Morgan report released yesterday that says “Proposed Chrysler assistance is slightly outsized in relation to its market position. It was suggested these amounts could compensate for the automakers’ likely FY2009 cash burns.” Or maybe it’s just based on the generally negative reaction to Detroit’s jet-by testimony. In any case, Fitch says that without “material federal assistance in the short term” the agency would review the current rating for potential downgrading to CC — which “indicates that default is probable” — from its current CCC rating. Oh yeah, and there’s also this little knife-twisting sentence: “the provision of federal assistance may not preclude a downgrade.” In fact, Fitch thinks some form of assistance is “probable.” After all, “Chrysler is dependent on the financial capacity and willingness of its suppliers to continue extending trade credit, as the company does not have sufficient resources to finance ongoing operations in the event that trade credit is curtailed.” Ouch.
Category: High Finance
The cynical amongst you will see this as a direct rebuke to Detroit: a shot across the bow of the Big 2.8 execs who sat in front of America’s duly elected representatives and refused [almost] point-blank to take a pay cut, whilst asking for a $25b federal “bridging loan.” And so it is. But anyone who thinks Toyota is trying to make Motown look bad– a pursuit in which they need no special assistance– doesn’t have a grasp on the “Toyota Way.” Even before this auto sales meltdown, the Japanese automaker’s top ten execs earned less money COMBINED than Ford’s Alan Mulally, Chrysler’s Bob Nardelli and GM’s Rick Wagoner (individually). In fact ALL of Toyota’s execs together earned 3.92b yen. That’s $40.5m. And now Yomuiri reports “Toyota Motor Corp. will consider cutting the pay of its directors in fiscal 2009, it was learned Wednesday. The aim of the nation’s top automaker is to clarify the executives’ management responsibility after the company announced last week that it expected a 73.6 percent dive in group operating profit for fiscal 2008, due to sluggish new car sales resulting from the global economic downturn. Toyota also expects reducing the remuneration of its directors to set an example as the company prepares to embark on thorough cost-cutting.”
Barron‘s, the weekend edition from those warm and fuzzy people at the Wall Street Journal, is little known outside the financial world, and read by everyone inside it. Today Barron’s is hyping Honda stock, big time. Writer Jay Palmer loves him some Honda. He cites the 200 FCX Clarity fuel cell cars motoring around Santa Monica as clear evidence of technology leadership. Never mind that the hydrogen economy is about as likely as the Moller Skycar. More urgently, “amid a savage sales slump that has led the Detroit Three to plead for government aid, threatens to bankrupt General Motors and has battered most European and Asian vehicle makers, the Japanese car manufacturer is a standout.” Honda, along only with Subaru, managed to keep unit sales above 2007 levels throughout the first nine months of 2008. “Recently, however, the downturn’s severity has taken a toll on Honda. Its U.S. sales plunged 25% in October, but that still was better than the overall industry’s 32% slide. Honda now expects its 2008 U.S. sales to be off 2.4%, the first yearly decline in 15 years. But the company remains confident; it will open a new plant this month in Greensburg, Ind., that soon will be turning out 30,000 vehicles a month. And it has opted not to follow Toyota, Nissan and others in offering 0% financing.” That last bit is interesting. Honda isn’t following Toyota’s lead into the Saved by Zero swamp.
According to the AP, “Toyota Motor Corp. said Friday that for now it is sticking with plans to open its new Mississippi plant in 2010 despite media reports that Japan’s top automaker is mulling a delay.” Mississippi was originally supposed to get Highlander production.. Those plans ran aground on $4 a gallon gas. In a fit of hybrid mania, Toyota Mississippi jumped off the Highlander horse and onto the Prius this past July… just in time to see crude oil prices peak and roll over. Remember all that talk of building a Scion-like separate Prius brand? You have to think that plan is on hold. “Earlier this month, Toyota said its net profit for the July-September quarter plunged 69 percent. The car maker also downgraded its full-year profit forecast to 550 billion yen ($5.5 billion) — about a third of last year’s result. Executive Vice President Mitsuo Kinoshita said after the earnings release that the company had convened an ‘Emergency Profit Improvement Committee’ to cut costs and maximize revenues. Toyota is also assessing its manufacturing operations by ‘re-examining aspects such as the timing and scale of new projects.'”
Can you believe that GM used to claim that their foreign ops would prop-up the sinking North American market while they got their shit together? I mean, these are the same guys that were busy touting the advantages of a world car. Anyone who doubted that it’s a small world after all should have a gander at October sales stats across the pond [via Bloomberg UK]. “Registrations dropped to 1.13 million vehicles last month from 1.33 million a year earlier, the Brussels-based European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association said today in a statement. Sales for the first 10 months fell 5.4 percent to 12.8 million vehicles, accelerating from a 4.4 percent contraction through September.” And who got whacked the hardest? “GM’s sales in Europe fell 25 percent to 94,479 vehicles, with the Saab brand reporting a 28 percent plunge… Registrations in Europe by Toyota slumped 24 percent to 54,612 cars. Asia’s largest carmaker, leading GM in global auto sales this year, posted a 69 percent plunge in quarterly net income on Nov. 6. Deliveries of its Lexus brand fell 32 percent.” So, that’s the mass market, then. How about the top end?
Yesterday, we reported that the European Commission threatened to drag Germany in front of the European High Court again– if Germany dares to pass a revamped Volkswagen Gesetz (VW Law.) Yesterday evening, the German parliament flipped a whole aviary worth of birds in the direction of Brussels, and passed the face-lifted law with an overwhelming majority. Result for the time being: VeeDub’s soon majority-owner Porsche will have to kowtow to the state of Lower Saxony, owner of a paltry 20.1 percent of the shares. Porsche must ask for their OK on major issues. On one issue, Porsche doesn’t even need to ask. Lower Saxony will say “nein, nein, nein” to Porsche booking VW’s profits as theirs. Und now European Trade Commissar Charlie McCreevy will file papers “before Christmas,” and the contemptuous Bundesrepublik Deutschland will face the judges of the European High Court. Again. The court will rule (anybody guess how?) Germany will have to implement the wishes of the court again (anybody guess whether they will?) The never-ending saga continues. In the meantime…
Industry bearishness is tearing through the ranks of suppliers today, as Standard and Poors has downgraded the short-term credit ratings of 13 auto supply firms, according to the Detroit News. ArvinMeritor Inc., BorgWarner Inc., Cooper-Standard Automotive Inc., Federal-Mogul Corp., Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., Hayes Lemmerz International Inc., Johnson Controls Inc., Lear Corp., MetoKote Corp., Shiloh Industries Inc., Stoneridge Inc., Tenneco Inc. and Visteon Corp have all been targeted, as Wall Street worries over these firms’ exposure to the Detroit 3. Automotive News [sub] adds that S&P has also cut the long-term credit ratings of supply giants Dana and Magna. This news is likely to spur on bailout backers who will no doubt see this as the dreaded “ripple effect” that they claim will take down the entire economy if bailout bucks aren’t forthcoming. Of course, anyone who follows the industry knows that these firms have been on shaky ground for some time already. The auto supplier sector has been rife with bankruptcies for years now, thanks in large part to the predatory practices of the very three firms that are now seeking a publicly-funded bailout. Imagine a parent starving their kids and then complaining that if they go to jail the kiddies will have nobody to look out for them, and you’ll have a good picture of the dynamic at play here.
In a new report covered by Automotive News [sub], Goldman Sachs says GM will end the year with $12.5 billion in cash, and will need at least $22b in government money to survive. Goldman is suspending GM’s rating, putting the automaker on a “wait-and-see” basis until further bailout details emerge. Meanwhile, JP Morgan cut its GM rating to “neutral” from “overweight” saying the automaker needs “something immediately” to make it through the end of the year. Morgan also slashed GM’s stock price target, from $3.08 to $1.84, about a dollar off its trading price of $2.89 at the time of this writing. And while Goldman set the bailout minimum at $22b, Morgan reckons the bill for righting the General “could easily reach $30 billion unless GM reforms its vast liability structure.” GM stock is currently down about five percent on the day, although it’s shown resiliance to earlier Deutsche Bank analysis which valued the stock at precisely bupkis. Still, urgency is the common thread that ties all the analysis together, and if news doesn’t improve soon for GM, its stockholders could see their paper become worthless in short order. Rest assured, TTAC will have the latest developments as they occur.
A few days ago, Porsche’s Wendelin Wiedeking sent a letter to Germany’s parliamentarians, urging them to say “Nein” to Chancellor Angela Merkel. According to Braunschweiger Zeitung [via Automobilwoche sub], Wendy was not what you’d call enamored with a new version of the “Volkswagen Gesetz” (VW law). That’s the legal power bestowed upon The State of Lower Saxony to control VeeDub— despite the State’s [now] relatively measley 20.1 percent holding. Last year, the European Court struck down the law– in the interest of free trade, Mutter and Apfelkuchen. The ruling opened the door for Porsche to ride to the rescue of VW, supposedly shielding VW from gang-rape at the hands of Kirk Kerkorian, Cerberus and a RICO of takeover-artists. And yet Berlin has no plans at all to scuttle the Volkswagen Gesetz. Porsche can own as much of VW as they want. With the law on the books, Porsche can’t fight the power from Hannover or Berlin.
One of the theories explaining GM’s downfall is that they did not invest enough in R&D. Wrong! Booz & Co.’s latest report on Global R&D spending says: bar Toyota, GM was tops. Here’s the 2007 ranking:
Company R&D expenditures in $m
Toyota 8,386
GM 8,100
Ford 7,500
Honda 5,142
VW 4,757
Daimler 4,321
Nissan 4,001
BMW 3,995
Peugeot 2,835
Renault 2,531
Booz says in comparison to 2006, R&D expenditures in the auto industry grew by about 10 percent. European “champs” pale, with the European primo (VW) being only around half as research-intensive as the biggest spender. Here are some other findings…
Co-dependent relationships are never pretty, and they usually end only when one half ends up in prison, the poorhouse or the morgue. With GM seemingly headed towards all three at once, its once-captive credit arm, GMAC, swears it will no longer play Tina to the General’s Ike. Automotive News [sub] quotes GMAC CFO Robert Hull as saying his firm plans to “shift GMAC from its captive roots to an independent deposit-funded lender and servicer.” As we reported earlier, changing GMAC’s status to a “Bank holding corporation” will give it access to the $700b TARP fund, but it also means that GM will have to exit the building. As in sell off its remaining 49 percent so that GMAC can rejoin society as a full-service bank, complete with FDIC insurance, credit cards, and a little dish of Werthers Originals by each teller. So GMAC will get taxpayer-funded security, and GM might even get a little cash out of the deal… but who loses? Why, the dealers, of course!
We’ve already put Detroit Free Press writer Mark Phelan through the Cassandra-o-meter— and found his logic more than slightly wanting. Today’s column reveals that Phelan’s cluelessness runs deep. Contemplating the collapse of the GM – Chrysler merger, Phelan says “Finding a foreign buyer to provide advanced engineering for sophisticated small vehicles in exchange for access to Chrysler’s U.S. dealer network and expertise in trucks, minivans and big cars is the best option.” Of course, Phelan’s theory assumes that an automaker would want to buy Chrysler. While everyone and their proverbial mother believes that Jeep is some kind of brand babe, other than that, what would be the point? How do we prod thee with a ten-foot pole? Let me count the ways. First, the U.S. automotive market is dead in the water. Second, any automaker stupid enough to assume tens of billions of dollars of ChryCo debt and obligations to a union (whose primary expertise is in wresting said benefits from overpaid execs), not to mention a roster of uncompetitive products and nothing in the propduct pipeline (although I just did), is also hurting in the worldwide auto industry meltdown. Third, if said automaker wants a piece of Chrysler, they’ll wait for the now-inevitable Chapter 11 or 7 and buy the best bits for pennies on the dollar. Phelan’s take? A ChryCo sale (as such) could happen. But that would suck. “Even in that best of all possible worlds, however, Chrysler will be a smaller company than it is today. It will have fewer plants and employees, but it can remain a major contributor to the U.S. economy and an important center of engineering and design expertise for a healthy global company. We can hope Chrysler’s next owners will value it more than the last two did.”
Hedge fund fornicator Luxury car maker Porsche has just announced their numbers for their last 2007/2008 fiscal. You guessed it: while the rest of the world is retching in the WC, Porsche’s profits are up a pornographic 52 percent. “The Stuttgart-based maker of the ass-engined sports car 911, IMS- challenged Boxster/Cayman and Cayenne SUV reported a net profit of nearly 6.4b Euros ($8.2b) for the year that ended July 31. That’s compared to the 4.2b Euros Porsche earned in the 2006-2007 year,” tickers The Associated Press to the world’s flabbergasted financial editors. The numbers are so mind-blowing that there are different accounts of the accounting data. The Wall Street Journal has on its wire that Porsche’s profits “soared 46% to €8.57 billion Euros, or about $10.9 billion.” (The €8.57b number is repeated by Deutsche Welle, the €6.4b figure is popular with Bloomberg. We’ll see. A few billion more or less don’t matter, we guess. Mum’s the word on Porsche’s Investors Relations page. We’ll probably have to wait until Monday, after they are done partying. Meanwhile…
Bad news (or, if compared to anorexic America, good news) from J.D. Power: Western European auto sales fell by 15.5 percent to 1,035,243 million units in October from a year earlier, reports Automotive News Europe [sub]. They say, the decline in new-car sales in Western Europe could be worse than a slump in the early 1990s. Contrast that to “the worst sales month in the post World War II era,” which GM’s Chief (Non-) Sales Analyst just saw for his employer in NA. Everything being relative, our relatives in the Old Country still have it relatively good. If J.D.Power’s crystal ball is still functioning, the Western European car market may decline by 8 percent in 2008, and go down between 10 and 11 percent in 2009. J.D.Power came to the not all to surprising conclusion that this would “place major strains on the European auto industry.” As opposed to the end of the world, as if we don’t know it already. Note: As long as VW stock goes for between €500 and €1000, depending what time of day it is, or the whims of Porsche may be, as long as BMW’s owneresse can afford millions to pay a gigolo, the European market will be just fine. All things, considered, of course.
Who says the little guy can’t profit from Porsche’s mucking-around with the Volkswagen stock? Jochem Heizmann, a lowly member of Volkswagen AG’s BOD and head of Group Production (which doesn’t mean he’s in charge of producing rock groups) just sold a measly 2000 shares of VeeDub stock for a paltry €537.93 a piece, clearing a trifling $1.39m, Automotive News Europe [sub] says. They unearthed this inconvenient truth after reading the disclosure statements which are now obligatory even in Germany. Previously, Dr. Prof. Heizmann (we are at Volkswagen, after all, which must have more professors than MIT) worked at Audi. He ran VeeDub’s plant in Zwickau, then was responsible for production at Audi again. Just your average engineer. If a guy like him can clear a mil in a few days, anyone can. Or not.
Recent Comments