Reuters reports that Boston Consulting Group has revised its projections for EV market penetration downwards, concluding that plug-in electric vehicles (including EREV and PHEV models) will make up no more than five percent of the US market by 2020. And ironically, the recent increases in gas prices have actually driven the estimate downwards, as Xavier Mosquet, the global head of the group’s autos practice, tells The WSJ [sub]

Electric cars will undoubtedly play an increasingly large role in many countries’ plans in the decades ahead as energy independence and environmental concerns intensify, but they will gain only modest ground to 2020. Gas- and diesel-powered vehicles are improving faster than expected and will continue to dominate the global landscape.

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Your worst nightmare. A pleasant drive along a yawning rural two-laner is met by a sudden ‘jolt!’  You quickly take your foot off the accelerator. Was it a transmission shudder? A miss in the engine? Some gravitational push from a UFO? After a couple of mini-jolts it looks like problem number one. You do what you can to not stress the tranny. But it gets worse and worse until ‘jolt!’ ‘JOLT!’ ‘Veeeee!!!!’ The engine spins over to the high rpm’s with nothing left to propel it. The tranny is toast… and now the fun begins.

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Suzuki will finally relent and will offer a plug-in hybrid version of its bestselling Swift hatchback. A lithium-ion battery will power the car for the first 30km (18.6 miles), then a gasoline engine will produce the juice, says The Nikkei [sub]. Read More >

When Ford showed the world its new crop of compact-based cars and MPVs at January’s Detroit Auto Show, it announced that its C-Max compact MPV would be coming to the US in 7-passenger Grand C-Max form. But in a strangely prophetic turn of events (see video above), the 7-passenger model refused to show up. Now, according to Ford, the 7-passenger Grand C-Max won’t be coming to the US… instead the 5-passenger version will be sold as a dedicated hybrid model with a plug-in option. Why? Because it’s big in Europe… and because “One Ford.” Hit the jump for Ford’s explanation, and then wonder along with us: seriously, why not sell the 7-seat version too?

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The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers is taking to the internet ahead of a forthcoming increase in 2017-2025 CAFE standards, with a website called “Consumers and Fuel Economy.” There you can find, among other things, this graph detailing the relationship between hybrid sales and fuel prices over the last three… summers? Did the fall and winter data not support the AAM’s goals? If so, and this graph has been constructed for maximum impact, it’s hardly a wildly convincing slice of data… or is it?

I’m just beginning to figure out that Twitter thing, and there it was:

“ToyotaPR Scott Brownlee RT @YouTubeLMAO: @ToyotaPR Made this Hybrid Music Video for Toyota. http://youtu.be/8H-yUQZ9uqM < Reminds me of http://youtu.be/RksFDe6nkaY”

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A report by UNEP [PDF here], the UN’s environmental body, finds that recycling rates for some of the key ingredients in EV and Hybrid cars are woefully low. The chart above shows “functional recycling rates” for 60 metals, and the rate for such key elements in the production of EV and Hybrid batteries and magnets as Lithium, Vanadium, Lanthanum, Neodymium, Dysprosium, all have recycling rates of 1% or lower. Not only do many of these elements have the potential for creating ecological damage, but many (especially the so-called “rare earth elements”) are considered relatively scarce…. and not recycling exacerbates both of these issues. But, notes the report, the complex fusion of elements used in both batteries and EV magnets could present huge challenges in ever improving these rates of recycling.

Where relatively high EOL-RR [End Of Life Rates of Recycling] are derived, the impression might be given that the metals in question are being used more efficiently than those with lower rates. In reality, rates tend to reflect the degree to which materials are used in large amounts in easily recoverable applications (e. g., lead in batteries, steel in auto- mobiles), or where high value is present (e. g., gold in electronics). In contrast, where materials are used in small quantities in complex products (e. g., tantalum in electronics), or where the economic value is at present not very high, recycling is technically much more challenging.

Hat Tip: Auto123

For years now, Detroit’s inability to compete in the increasingly-important hybrid drivetrain has been part of its larger perception issues, driving the view that the American automakers are both less environmentally responsible and technologically adept than their Japanese competitors. GM waorked through a number of underwhelming hybrid technologies, including its BAS “Mild” Hybrid system and its Two-Mode V8 hybrid, while Ford had to back away from Bill Ford’s precipitous promise that it would build 250k hybrids per year by 2010. For a while now, it’s seemed that Ford and GM were content to avoid direct hybrid competition, focusing on “leapfrog”  technologies like pure EVs and the Chevy Volt extended-range electric car… but now it seems they’re going back into Prius-style “parallel hybrids” in a big way.

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Fisker’s powertrain partner Quantum Fuel System Technologies has partnered with the US Army’s Tank Automotive Research, Development and Engineering Center (TARDEC) to produce a diesel-electric, series hybrid Clandestine Extended Range Vehicle (CERV). GreenCarCongress reports

the prototype CERV is equipped with a 1.4-liter diesel to drive the genset, and is designed for quick-paced mobility operations such as reconnaissance, surveillance and target designation. CERV pairs Quantum’s advanced all-wheel-drive diesel hybrid-electric powertrain with a light-weight chassis to produce a torque rating that exceeds 5,000 lb-ft (6,780 N·m) [Ed: after gear reduction].

The unit can maintain speeds of 80 mph (129 km/h) and climb 60 percent grades while reducing fuel consumption by up to 25% compared with conventional vehicles of comparable size.

As Ronnie Schreiber’s piece on the Arsenal of Democracy shows, military developments can have a profound affect on the private transportation market. As the military pursues efficiency for strategic and tactical purposes, let’s hope more advanced drivetrains trickle down into the civilian realm.

Three times now, GM has planned to build a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) version of its Theta-platform crossovers, once with the Saturn Vue, once with the Buick “Vuick” and now, according to Reuters

General Motors Co has canceled plans to develop a plug-in hybrid vehicle based on the current Cadillac SRX crossover platform, deciding the project was not financially viable, three people with direct knowledge of the project said.

While two of the sources said the plans could still be revived on a future platform, they and two others familiar with the matter said engineers involved had been reassigned to other projects.

Back in early days of the program, the plan was to bring a Vue PHEV to market as soon as 2010, but the death of Saturn (and other difficult-to-identify issues) forced a change of plans. The Buick version was literally laughed out of consideration in what was the first-ever Twitter-based future product killing. But given that hand-picked members of the public were driving mules nearly two years ago (see video), we figured enough development had been done that GM essentially had no choice but bring the troubled Theta PHEV to market. Today’s cancellation of the SRX version is therefore just a little confusing…
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A number of plug-in hopeful firms have been testing their future products in fleets, keeping a close eye on the data coming back as they prepare for their consumer launches or wider availability. One such vehicle, Toyota’s plug-in Prius has been testing for some time now, and while the results of US and European testing hasn’t been publicized yet, Wards Auto reports that the company has disclosed the results of Japanese testing with some interesting conclusions. With BYD and Chevrolet releasing data from their own plug-in testing, we should have the basis for some interesting insights. Hit the jump for more on the lessons learned and the data gleaned from this testing of next-gen drivetrains.

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Cars charred in Barkhamsted fire: wtnh.com

The Hartford Courant reports that the fire reported on in the video above, which first started in a garage holding a new Chevrolet Volt and a converted electric-powered Suzuki Samurai, re-ignited this morning. According to the report

A fire apparently reignited inside the battery of a new Chevrolet Volt car early Monday, less than five days after the Volt, an electric hybrid, was involved in a blaze that destroyed a Barkhamsted garage where it had been plugged in for recharging.

“The rekindle this morning really adds to the mystery,” Barkhamsted Fire Marshal Bill Baldwin said today.

Representatives from General Motors, the vehicle’s manufacturer plan, are scheduled to arrive in Barkhamsted this evening to examine the car, Baldwin said.

The hybrid electric car was not plugged in this morning when the fire rekindled, Baldwin said.

Investigators still haven’t linked either the fire or the rekindle to either vehicle, but GM’s investigators should be able to help narrow down the cause of the fire.

UPDATE: TTAC Commenter mcs finds the blog of a Suzuki EV converter based in Barkhamsted, CT. One post describes a homemade charging system its owner describes as “certainly not a recommended safe practice.” Hit the jump for a screen capture of the post, or check out the blog here.
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Back in January, when news broke that GM would be pulling its 2.8T V6 from the Cadillac lineup, I reckoned that

Cadillac needs to figure out if it wants to keep its SRX saddled to an underwhelming engine, or if it wants to add its widely-lauded 3.6 direct injection V6 to the SRX lineup.

And you know what? Cadillac made the right call (or at least the obvious one). But will GM seal the deal and drop the unloved 3.0?

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If you are a respectable auto manufacturer, better don’t show up at the Shanghai Auto Show (open to the public on April 21) without an EV or at least a hybrid. Not that there is a huge demand. Despite lavish subsidies (in Beijing, I could collect $9,000 from the government for driving an EV, an amount the city will supposedly double – a moot point if I don’t get lucky in the license plate lottery), where was I, despite lavish subsidies, the take rate in China remains minuscule.

Wharton says that ”EV sales today account for only 0.06% of all vehicle sales in China.” Hybrids? Google leaves us in the dark. This does not discourage consultants from McKinsey on down from promising that China will be a bonanza for new energy vehicles. On top of that, the government wants it. One of the many companies to show up with a green car in Shanghai is BMW. Read More >

One of the toughest challenges facing industry analysts right now involves determining what the market for electric vehicles actually looks like, what kind of volumes it will support and for how long. It’s a problem that I’ve hashed over at length with an old college buddy who now works at a cleantech investment firm, and let me be the first to say that it’s not an easy problem to pick apart. The number of unknown quantities and moving parts explains why opinions among money managers can vary so wildly even about relatively marginal firms like Tesla.

Luckily, Thilo Koslowski of Gartner Research [and celebrated coiner of the term “the trough of disappointment”] has dedicated himself more thoroughly to the problem, and has some startling findings to report. For example, despite the relentless pro-EV hype present in all levels of the media, Koslowski’s research shows that more consumers are actually considering buying a natural gas-powered vehicle. Looks like Edmunds’ Jeremy Anwyl was on to something when he called for an end to EV tax credits in favor of greater support for natural gas cars.

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