Back when GM was going through its recent bankruptcy bailout-related unpleasantness, Toyota’s Yasuhiko Ichihashi told the AP that “Toyota was only hoping for an overall recovery for the U.S. auto industry, including GM.” Months later, then-Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe even suggested that “it’s not something we would bring up on our own, and we don’t know enough about the restructuring plan, [but] if some talk about supporting GM comes up, we would like to consider it earnestly.” Now that Toyota is in a spot of PR trouble over its unintended acceleration woes, you might expect that GM would show the same class and tact that Toyota did just months ago… but you’d be wrong.

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This week saw the Volt’s price point issues return to the public eye, as GM’s Chairman and CEO made it clear that he takes the government’s $7,500 tax credit for granted. But Whitacre’s dissembling revealed once again GM’s fundamental problem with the Volt: getting people past the sticker shock. Though GM’s short-term viability doesn’t hinge on the Volt selling like gangbusters, it’s clear that the Volt’s initial success or lack thereof will be a crucial factor in GM’s ability to hold a successful IPO and extricate itself from government ownership. Which, according to The Big Money‘s Matt DeBord, is one of the reasons the government should expand the Volt’s credit of $10k. Another reason: the Volt’s competition is too good!

with the base Prius selling for just over $20,000 and the base Honda Insight hybrid for under $20,000, the feds may have to start thinking about how to enable innovative electric and gas-electric plug-ins to survive. The EPA mandate to raise fleet fuel-economy standards to average of 35.5 mpg by 2016 looms, and a component of that target should be EVs and plug-ins. Otherwise, carmakers may abandon the tech, leaving it stillborn to cynically massage their fleet numbers by importing small cars from foreign operations to North America—cars they know Americans will only grudgingly purchase and that may force the government to chuck the 35.5 requirement.

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Smart’s new President, former Saturn overseer/undertaker Jill Lajdziak, knows how the dying brand thing works. With Smart sales down a (barely) Chrysler-beating 41 percent on the year, the Penske-owned Smart USA is teaming up with Daimler Financial Services (Smart vehicles are produced by Daimler in Europe) for a good-old captive lease deal right out the old GM playbook. According to Automotive News [sub], Smart is offering

a 36-month lease for $169 a month, $999 down, a $595 acquisition fee and the first month’s payment due at the time of the lease.

That’s a lot more realistic than the the old deal they were offering ($3k down, $200/month) but we’re still talking about a 10k miles-per-year lease. On a car makes a Yaris seem luxurious, overpowered and confidence-inspiring. Incidentally, were you aware that the Smart ForTwo was first introduced way back in 1998? The more you know!

Chrysler’s sales fell 36 percent last year, as bankruptcy and some of the weakest products on the market conspired to keep sales and market share trending downwards. CEO Sergio Marchionne figures Chrysler’s slide has hit bottom, and indeed his turnaround hinges on considerable improvement over last year’s dismal numbers. How much improvement? Marchionne tells the Freep that ChryCo needs to sell 1.1m vehicles in the US next year, an 18 percent improvement on 2009’s number, in order to reach his break-even projections. Worldwide, Chrysler needs to sell 1.65m vehicles, or 27 percent more than last year. Given the downward sales and market share momentum, the overall uncertainty of the US market, and the lack of new products until the end of this year, reaching those volume numbers won’t be easy. Especially because Marchionne refuses to cut any corners.

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Speaking to Bloomberg yesterday, GM Sales Boss Susan Docherty called December’s sales results “very encouraging.” Her argument: heavy fleet sales in December 2008 explain why December 09 results look worse by comparison. But spinning sales results as the product of conscious fleet percentage reductions is just one longstanding GM tradition that Docherty indulged in: talking points touting falling incentives and improved inventory weren’t far behind. None of which is necessarily indicative of a satisfactory performance. In fact, if you dissect the spin, it’s clear that what lies beneath is not nearly as attractive as the PR would have you believe.

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According to Reuters, GM has sent a letter to its dealers offering $7,000 for every new Saturn or Pontiac they can move to a rental or service fleet between now and January 4. The plan would essentially make dealers the first buyer of the remaining Pontiacs and Saturns, which would then be operated as fleet vehicles or be sold as low-mileage used cars. In any case, the single objective is clear: get those dead brands off the books at all costs. With 7,900 vehicles left at Pontiac as of the 14th of December and upward of 5,000 left at Saturn as of the beginning of the month, the cost to GM could easily approach $100m. But as they say in the advertisements, their loss is your gain…. as long as you’re interested in one of the G6s or Auras that dominate the dead-brand straggler inventory. Where’s Oprah when you need her?

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Credit reporting agency TransUnion is forecasting a rise in auto loan delinquencies next year, adding to the list of factors that could slow a turnaround in auto sector sales and profits in 2010. 60-day auto loan delinquency has been rising throughout 2009, reports the WSJ, as tighter lending standards have increased the ratio of delinquencies in outstanding loans. Those tighter standards sill contribute to a slight downturn in delinquencies in the first half of next year TransUnion’s Peter Turek tells Automotive News [sub], but by halfway through the year those numbers should increase again. Nationwide, TransUnion reckons .92 of all auto loans will be in delinquency by the end of 2010, compared to .86 at the end of this year. The average national auto debt is $12,542, and the Freep reports that loan terms are falling and average credit scores for approved loans are rising.

While Ford is slowly but surely gaining traction in North America and China, Europe is storming ahead. Over at paddocktalk.com there’s report on Ford of Europe’s latest sales, which jumped 19.8% in November. This marks Ford’s sixth consecutive volume increase, resulting in a 9.1% year to date market share. “November was another month with outstanding volume gains for Ford of Europe”, said Roelant de Waard, Ford of Europe’s Vice-President for Sales. “Having the right products at the right time is paying off, and this is why we’re continuing to strengthen our position as the clear No.2 choice for customers in the European auto industry.” A key point included how 63% of their sales went to retail customers, which was an increase of 13%. Increase in sales? Increase in retail customers? Increase in market share? It all sounds great! Until you dig a little deeper.
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Well, we’ve been here before… about this time last year, to be exact. The Freep reports that Chrysler, which had to quit leasing for much of last year due to falling resale values and the credit crunch, is reinstating subsidized leasing for its 26,000 qualifying retirees. Under the terms of the plan, retirees could lease up to two 2010 Chrysler, Dodge or Jeep products with no down payment and free scheduled maintenance. The 36-month leases run from December 9 through June 30, 2010. According to the Freep, retirees will pay $100 per month less on average than Chrysler employees who have access to two-year leases. GMAC, which is financing the leases, is set to receive another government bailout of “less than” $5.6b on top of the $13.5b it has already received from the TARP program.

Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne isn’t bothered by his firm’s sliding market share, which have declined to the point where Honda will certainly surpass them to become the number four automaker in America. At least that’s what he keeps saying, and Automotive News [sub] went ahead and made it a headline. If dealers are “expecting us to call them up and give them a $6,000 check for every new vehicle, they won’t get the call,” Marchionne joked recently in the Detroit Free Press.

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From here on out, GM’s success in the US market comes down to two people: Susan Docherty and Mark Reuss. The two fielded their first joint sales conference call last week,  and it was clear that they were still settling into their roles. Listen to the whole hour of awkwardness here, or, for a quick summary check out the final questions of the session (from the WSJ’s John Stoll), and the prickly, defensive answers from Docherty and Reuss. When Stoll asks how Reuss and Docherty expect to change a culture when they’re a product of that culture, the tension is palpable. Then, when Stoll accuses Docherty’s sales organization of buying market share with incentives, the pair’s non-answer is “I guess that’s what you feel.” Meanwhile, Edmunds reports that GM has by far the highest incentives of any automaker, with a True Cost of Incentives of $4,270, over a thousand dollars more than number two Chrysler. Good thing we’re tackling those problems head-on then.

Despite already having some of the highest incentives in the game right now, Chrysler is joining GM in putting more cash on the hood to clear out year-end inventory. Automotive News [sub] reports that Chrysler will be adding $1,000 to $1,500 in incentives per vehicle, on top of October’s $3,219 per vehicle average (as calculated by Edmunds). According to the same Edmunds analysis, the average industry incentive is $2,468 per vehicle. This continued reliance on incentives contradicts a number of Sergio Marchionne’s statements at the presentation of Chrysler’s five year product and business plan, in which he argued that Chrysler could not rely on incentives to push volume. Marchionne claims to believe the incentive-based volume chasing is “insane,” but his commitment to a sustainable business plan is about to be tested. For Chrysler’s five year plan to succeed, its sales need to turn around fast, making 2009 the trough year indicated on this graph. But with no new product (and by new product, we mean refreshed product) due out until the fourth quarter of next year, such a turnaround seems impossible without huge incentives. And yet Chrysler also showed graphs projecting a direct relationship between volume and profit, meaning there is little to no wiggle room for profit-sapping incentives. Rock, hard place, I’d like you to meet Chrysler Group.

Well, we’ve already been warned that GM’s 4Q cash burn and financial results will be worse than the just-released 3Q results; now we have another reason why. Even though GM has been averaging just over $4,000 per vehicle in incentives, a traditional Red-Toe-Tag sale has been planned for year’s end, reports Automotive News [sub]. As in years past, the answer lies in shoddy inventory management. GM’s Susan Docherty explains:

All of our efforts will be to sell down our remaining 2009 inventory. We’ll have a little bit of carryover of that into the first quarter of 2010, but the objective is to keep our inventory somewhere between 425,000 to 450,000 units. I’d rather have very slow, incremental movement up [in market share] than the peaks and valleys we saw all over 2008 and of course in the first six months of the 2009 calendar year

Wait, there were peaks to go along with all the valleys in 2009? More to the point, how does Docherty’s desire for organic growth square with the decision to spike sales at year’s end with as-yet non-specific financing and cash incentives? The real irony is that GM is having an easier than expected time moving its remaining 10,000 Pontiacs and 8,000 Saturns; The Red Tag event is for Chevrolet, Buick-GMC gets the “Holiday Event” and Cadillac will hold a “Seasons Best” sale. Non-stop incentives on “core brands,” goes against much of the “sell the product, not the deal” rhetoric coming out of GM post-bankruptcy. And unless holiday sales blow up, the profit-sapping incentives will help justify GM’s 4Q loss warnings. The turnaround still has yet to show itself.

US sales of the not very Smart car have fallen off a cliff. The Financial Times reports that “Smart sold only 661 of its fortwo model in the US last month, more than two-thirds below October 2008 and the lowest for any month since the car made its debut in the US early last year.” Other analysts are blaming low fuel costs and the foolishness of US consumers who just don’t get the appeal of microcars. Not me, I blame the fact that the Smart car is an all around underwhelming vehicle which gives up too much capability in return for mediocre fuel economy. Note that the Smart brand is a failure in Europe as well. “Daimler’s decision to export Smart to the US was a critical part of its rescue plan for the brand. For all its pizzazz, the little car has been a financial millstone. Daimler came close to shutting down the brand in 2006, but opted instead for a €1bn ($1.5bn) restructuring aimed at making the business profitable by the end of 2007.” How anyone (let alone Roger Penske) thought a failed European microcar would be saved by exports to the US is beyond me. Smart’s new “Value Days” 1.9% financing promotion isn’t going to get the job done. Not even a Toyota-esque Saved By Zero campaign would do the trick.

I’m not going to tell you incentives are going away. They’re part of the game, but they can be better managed than they have been in the past

GM Sales maven Susan Docherty in the WSJ.