The new CR reliability reports are out, along with their projected reliability for 2011-model-year automobiles. Some of the results won’t be news to most of you: the Big Three from Japan are all near the top, Ford’s ahead of the other domestics, and the Koreans are climbing the charts.
If, on the other hand, you’re choosing between a Porsche and an Audi, you might want to take a moment to hear CR’s opinions…
In almost perfect contrast to Ford’s rapidly rising average transaction prices (previous post), Toyota is having to keep incentives and dealer discounts high in order to keep moving the metal. Automotive News reports that Toyota dealers, once money printing machines, are having to accept lower gross profits. Transaction prices on new 2011 models are the lowest, as a percentage of sticker prices, of all mainstream brands, according to TrueCar and Edmunds.com. And Toyota dealers aren’t denying it: Read More >
If you regret not buying Ford stock when it was $1, you might want to reconsider even at the current $14. Bloomberg reports that Ford may well report a record third quarter profit of some $1.37 billion, based on the projections of five analysts. Considering that the market is still depressed, some analysts see plenty of potential left on the upside, projecting a possible $20 share price within the next 12 months. The keys to Ford’s success? Here’s just one: the new Fiesta is fetching $3,000 to $4,000 above its $14k base price, because buyers are happily taking them loaded with options. The result is that average transaction prices for the Fiesta are higher than Honda Civics and Toyota Corollas. And the Fiesta is a class smaller. The small cars-can’t-be-sold-profitably-by-Detroit curse has finally been exploded. Read More >
As Japan stares in the abyss, things are looking up for the U.S. auto market. Traffic at dealers is up, people are buying, cautiously. Based on transaction data from more than 8,900 dealers in the U.S., J.D.Power projects that this October will be the year’s strongest month –but not by a whole lot. Read More >
It’s easy to see why Sergio is feeling mighty pleased with himself. Fiat is predicted to turn a €400 million profit this year (that’s about $556m) and Fiat is expanding in Brazil, a huge car market. So can some of this good fortune rub off onto Chrysler? Possibly 35 percent of it can, if Sergio has his way.
The Freep reports that Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Fiat and Chrysler, has told analysts that Fiat is planning to raise its stake in Chrysler from 20 percent to 35 percent by the end of next year “barring unforeseen circumstances”. A big vote of confidence, indeed. When Fiat took its initial stake in Chrysler, it was given the option to increase its stake by 5 percent tranches, provided it could meet certain goals. Read More >
The feared takeover of the world by Chinese cars so far was a non-starter. We’ve always said that cars built at Chinese joint ventures with Western (or Japanese) companies would be best suited to break that spell. But so far, the Western (or Japanese) joint venture partners wouldn’t play ball. Why invite a Chinese joint venture abroad where it competes in your markets? Now the first international brand will export a low-end car it developed for China to Latin America. For starters. Guess who? Read More >
Did we mention that there is a steady drumbeat by Japanese companies that openly think about, or deny (with huge qualifications) moving more and more production outside of Japan? Did we imply that a lot of this noisy thinking might be targeted at the current Japanese administration with which the carmakers are as much at odds as a carmaker can be with an administration that comes with full union backing and is full of former union officials? (Oops, never mind.) Anyway, Japanese carmakers are accusing their government of losing the war of the soft currency (led by the U.S. that lets its dollar slide while accusing others of manipulating their currencies – a good offense beats any defense.) Now the rhetoric is getting less circumspect. Read More >
America’s “jobless recovery” is a strange economic phenomenon: though businesses are returning to profitability, jobs are not trickling down to lift all economic boats. Though the causes and consequences of this economic conundrum are beyond the scope of a humble car blog, a snapshot of luxury/premium brand sales (via Truecar) show a similar dynamic at play in the world of car sales: luxury sales are recovering while year-to-date sales of mainstream standbys like Honda and Toyota are sitting flat (up 1.1% and 1.4% respectively). Of course the other dynamic at play in the first three quarters of 2010 is the recovery of domestic brands, but even among those successes, the luxury-premium brands are doing best (witness Cadillac sitting atop this chart, and Buick’s even faster recovery (up 57.5% YTD)). At least if you look at year-over-year percentage improvement rather than overall volume levels. Unlike past eras of economic and energy uncertainty, luxury cars, not spartan compact pickups and fuel efficient hatchbacks, are spurring recovery in the auto sector.
America has always been a land of extremes, and our automotive scene is no different. While current automotive debate obsesses over a high-efficiency halo car, our domestic auto industry is mounting a comeback largely on the back of pickups and large cars and crossovers. Meanwhile, we’re falling behind in the quest to make all cars more efficient with practical “bolt-on” systems like “stop-start” or “microhybrid” systems that turn off gas engines at stops. So what are we missing out on? According to a report from SeekingAlpha, stop-start systems provide
estimated fuel savings range from 5% in government mandated tests and 10% under real world city-highway driving to almost 20% in congested city traffic
Which would provide a hell of a lot more fuel savings than any high-price, limited-production eco-halo car. But, as Mazda has complained, the US EPA test cycle doesn’t provide any Monroney Sticker advantage to stop-start systems, even if they provide real-world improvements in fuel efficiency. Maybe instead of trying to keep EVs and plug-in halos on subsidy life support as long as possible, our government should be looking at ways of incentivizing across-the-board efficiency improvements like those offered by stop-start systems.
A report in Japan’s Kyodo news agency [via Reuters/Automotive News [sub]] must have raised a few eyebrows in Japan: thanks to a rising Yen, Toyota is reportedly eying an end to Corolla exports from Japan by 2013. Toyota has since emphasized that
it has made no decision to halt production in Japan of its Corolla automobiles for overseas sales but said it was always considering an optimum global production structure.
The yen hit 81 to the dollar today, both on Yen strength and dollar weakness. ( A Euro buys 1.41 dollars again – get ready for Eurotrash invading Manhattan.)
Toyota has already shifted the bulk of its Corolla production overseas: last year it built 815k Corollas outside of Japan, and only 235k in its home country (60 percent of which were exported). Still, Toyota has long considered stability in its Japanese workforce as core institutional value, and previous currency rises led to changes in design and quality philosophy rather than reductions in Japanese production levels. But then Toyota is no longer in a position to release currency pressure by targeting “fat” or “overquality” product the way it could in the early 90s. The “overquality” simply isn’t there anymore. Like everyone else, Toyota’s major competitive option is to move production closer to cheap labor and large markets.
Bloomberg reports that the credit rating firm Fitch Ratings has given GM a BB- credit default rating, the same as Ford Motor Credit. The difference: Ford has over $20b in debt, while GM is sitting on less debt and more cash. So why the identical rating? Fitch’s Stephen Brown explains:
Although they have similar ratings, you sort of get to them from different paths. GM doesn’t have a whole lot of debt, but they have very large pension obligations. Ford’s pension obligations are significant, but they’re lower than GM’s by quite a bit. But Ford has a lot of debt.
At the end of the first half of 2010, GM had $32b in cash and $8b in debt, while Ford had $22b in cash and $27b in debt. GM’s pensions, on the other had, are underfunded to the tune of $27b, while Ford’s are underfunded by $6.1b. Analysts have consistently suggested that GM’s IPO valuation should be in the neighborhood of Ford’s $40b market cap, and an identical credit rating seems to confirm the wisdom (or at least the popularity) of the comparison. Unfortunately, a $40b GM valuation would fail TTAC’s last standard for even marginal bailout “success.” After all, if GM is worth less than the $50b taxpayers put into it, there’s going to be no chance of spinning the IPO as a success.
Here is another myth that won’t die, as hard as we might be trying to debunk it: “Japan is a closed market for cars. They do everything to keep foreign cars out. Those Nips are unfair, and it’s time to do something about it.”
It’s baloney. Paul Niedermeyer debunked the propaganda, and said: “Want to import cars to Japan? It’s one of the easiest countries to do so.“ I did another story and showed, for those with reading comprehension problems, a picture of Japanese im- and exports. But the story won’t die. Ok, let’s try again to put it to rest. Read More >
With sales of its aging city car circling the toilet, Roger Penske’s Smart USA has reached a deal with Nissan to sell a Smart-branded version of a Nissan-developed four-door B-segment car, likely the Versa. Though Penske’s organization apparently pushed for and announced the deal, and the model will be exclusive to the US, the Detroit News calls the move “part of the growing cooperation between the Renault-Nissan Alliance and Daimler AG.” Penske says
We are proud to be a partner with both Daimler and Nissan, two companies focused on bringing high-quality, fuel-efficient products to the U.S. market
It was actually a “Dear John” letter! No surprise, since that’s my proper name, and that’s how I registered my SRT-4 six and a half long years ago.
Dear John,
My name is (blah blah), manager of (blah blah) Chrysler Jeep Dodge and I am contacting you today to inform you of a special offer available designed just for you. Over the last couple of weeks we have had several customers inquire about purchasing a reliable pre-owned Dodge Neon…
It is not an exaggeration to say that I laughed for a full thirty seconds.
Speaking of India, it’s about time that GM gets its act together on the subcontinent. If you aren’t somebody in India you are missing the boat. If the augurs augur right, the subcontinent will be the fastest-growing car market in the world. Read More >
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