Apparently, there’s no word for “yes” in Japanese. “Hai” means “I heard what you just said” not “I agree completely and will act accordingly.” By the same token, the word “no” lacks the Western sense of finality. So when Toyota used the opportunity of New GM’s birth to signal the media that it may close its GM joint venture in California, that means it may close its GM joint venture in California. Which is more than saying it definitely won’t shutter the UAW-staffed NUMMI plant, and less than saying it definitely will shutter the UAW-staffed NUMMI plant. Let’s check the official inscrutability index: “GM’s decision to abandon NUMMI and discontinue its production of the Pontiac Vibe have prompted a set of difficult and complex decisions for Toyota,” the Japan-based automaker said in a news release. “Under the current business circumstances, Toyota regrettably must also consider taking necessary steps to dissolve the joint venture.” Reading between the lines, NUMMI is toast. Unless Toyota decides otherwise.

The worst recession in half a century will be prolonged as consumers see their jobs go away and their home prices head south, economists Nouriel Roubini and Robert Shiller warn on Bloomberg. The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell by more than forecast to 64.6 from 70.8 in the prior month. And it may be time for some foreign automakers to evacuate crumbling Cartago, their countrymen caution.

Suzuki reported a precipitous 78 percent drop in US unit sales in June. Their first-half decline was 60 percent, the market’s worst. Mitsubishi is down 51 percent this year. Faltering since 2003, Mitsubishi doesn’t have far to fall. Mitsubishi “doesn’t make cars that are hot-sellers in the U.S.,” said CSM Worldwide analyst Masatoshi Nishimoto with polite Nipponese understatement. Sayonara?

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The official announcement was made earlier (see what happens when you play badminton with your daughter?). Here’s the memo sent to employees:

Dear Employees: Dodge is proud to announce the continuation of Dodge Viper SRT10® production beyond the 2009 calendar year! Originally slated to cease production in December 2009, the Viper business is no longer for sale, and the Connor Avenue Assembly Plant, the sole home of Viper production since 1995 will continue to produce the V-10 powered sports car. This is great news for our Company as well as for the dedicated team at the Conner Avenue Assembly Plant in Detroit who build this iconic American car. We at Chrysler Group LLC are committed to building great products that exceed the expectations of our customers and, over the years, the legendary Dodge Viper is the type of great product that has set our company apart.

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The House Appropriations Committee has passed a provision in the 2010 financial services spending bill that would require GM and Chrysler to work through state courts—instead of the federal bankruptcy court—to terminate dealerships. Rep. Steven LaTourette, R-Ohio, sponsored the amendment. Ignoring the fact that federal bankruptcy law trumps state bankruptcy law, LaTourette explained, “Car companies have used bankruptcy to run roughshod over state bankruptcy laws.” In reporting this, Automotive News made what has to be the understatement of the month, if not of the year: “GM opposes the House bill.”  Ya think???

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Bloomberg reports on Toyota’s pickle vis-à-vis Fremont, California-based NUMMI. New GM is leaving its NUMMI ownership share in the hands of Old GM. Thus, Old GM and Toyota together own NUMMI in a 50/50 joint venture. Old GM will be selling off its moribund assets over a period of a year or more as the long slow process of liquidating the discards and paying creditors pennies on the dollar plays out. (Old GM is looking like an economic stimulus program for a small band of lawyers, accountants and realtors.)

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Cars.com tackles the tough question of domestic content in its latest “American Made Index,” and comes away with a surprising result: Toyota’s Camry is the most “American” car on the market. Of course, making these distinctions in a global industry is fraught with difficulty. Though percentage of domestic parts content is tracked by the NHTSA for American Automobile Labeling Act compliance (PDF), those numbers count US and Canadian parts as being “domestic”. So Cars.com has created its own list which requires US assembly, at least 75 percent US-sourced parts content, and factors in sales numbers because “they correlate to the number of U.S. autoworkers employed to build any given model and to build the parts that go into those same cars.” Taking out vehicles that are being canceled with no clear replacement, the following vehicles make up their top ten “most American” automobiles.

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There are a few familiar faces on Chrysler’s newly complete board, which was announced over the weekend (via Chrysler Media). But not many. Chairman C. Robert Kidder, Sergio Marchionne and Fiat Powertrain CEO Alfredo Altavilla are the previously-announced, or otherwise-obvious picks. No surprises there. The other picks? Let’s take a look, shall we?

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You know this one is going to be good. Auto Motor und Sport says the two giants are having a little klatsch about platform and technology sharing, with typically crazy rumors flying out of the discussion. Mercedes hasn’t planned its next-generation A- and  B-classes yet, and Toyota is looking to rationalize its European production capacity. Could the Merc A/B end up sharing parts, platform or even production with future Toyota models? It sure looks like the possibility is on the table. But that’s not the weirdest rumor. There’s even talk of sharing costs between future generations of the Mercedes S-Class and Lexus LS. Plus Toyota is reportedly interested in Mercedes’ battery technology. Or is that Tesla‘s? As tempting as it is to simply dismiss this all out of hand as just another wild-ass rumor, the Aston Cygnet proves that Toyota is more willing to enter into ridiculous deals than you might imagine.

Chrysler press release: “Overall industry figures for June 2009 are projected to come in at an estimated 9.7 million SAAR. ”
Expected around 10 million . . . depending on who was doing the expecting.

Automotive News:

BMW Group –20.3 percent
Chrysler –41.9 percent
Daimler AG –26.4 percent
Ford Motor Co. –10.7 percent
General Motors –33.4 percent
Honda –29.5 percent
Hyundai Group not reported yet
Jaguar Land Rover not reported yet
Maserati –47.9 percent
Mazda not reported yet
Mitsubishi not reported yet
Nissan –23.1 percent
Porsche –66.0 percent
Subaru +3.4 percent
Suzuki –78.0 percent
Toyota –31.9 percent
VW -21.3 percent
Other –23.7 percent
TOTAL –28.4 percent

First six months 4,177,830 units sold, –37.2 percent

Update follows

Today’s the day automakers reveal their US new car sales numbers for June. For the last umpteen years, Chrysler has greeted the gloaming with a conference call with jobbing journos and anxious analysts: a spinmeisterfest wherein ChryCo would attempt to explain away their hemorrhaging bottom line with talk of The Next Big Thing (electric minivans!). Ah, but this is NEW Chrysler (a.k.a. Fiatsler). The Italian stallion running the US taxpayer-supported company has decreed the American part of his fiefdom should stay shtum on its stinking, sinking sales. (I guess he missed GM CEO Fritz Henderson’s transparency pledge.) In fact, Ohio.com reports that Chrysler’s  top suits have said anything about anything since the company emerged from bankruptcy. All except the boss, of course, who told Bloomberg that ChryCo’s cash burn is returning to simmer. Oh, Sergio!

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First, engine sludge in the Camry. Then, rusty frame rails on the Tacoma. Advertising Age (of all people) reveals the latest problem to tarnish Toyota’s solid gold quality image: the Prius’ HID headlights. A number of owners of Toyota’s green machine weren’t well pleased happy their high intensity headlights died after a few years. No surprise there; replacing them runs up a $1000+ parts and labor bill. Owners claim HID death is a “a dangerous but undisclosed safety defect” and that Toyota has “long been aware of Prius’ HID headlight problem” and is “concealing the problems from owners.”

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Will they or won’t they? First, the factory. GM’s announced they’re bailing on NUMMI. Bloomberg says Toyota may be considering the same thing. Once GM turns its door keys over to Toyota, the Fremont, California, plant becomes Toyota’s highest-cost factory and the only one manned by UAW workers. With other US plants’ excess capacity (including a mothballed Mississippi manufacturing facility) and lower operating costs, ToMoCo may well pull the plug on NUMMI. Problem: PR. Shutting down a plant in economically-challenged California (Toyota’s biggest market) and putting another 5K people out of work wouldn’t endear the Japanese automaker to the public or their politicians. (GM, of course, would get none of the blame.) Now about that GM – Toyota Synergy Drive deal . . .

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If the tea leaves of Edmunds, J.D. Power, CSM Worldwide and Deutsche Bank are correctly aligned, June SAAR (a.k.a. “seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate”) could be slightly above 10 million, Bloomberg reports. Based on a nearly completed month, J.D. Power estimates the June SAAR at 10.1 million. Deutsche Bank sees the June SAAR rise to 10.2 mil, and thinks the second half of the year will average 11 mil units. CSM reckons June will come in at 10.3 million SAAR.

While the faintest signs of economic turnaround have Detroit going back to optimistic prognosis mode, Toyota’s new boss isn’t ready to be caught guessing. Automotive News [sub] reports that Akio Toyoda is forecasting losses through March 2010, saying “we want to do everything possible to avoid a third consecutive year of losses.” Toyoda’s goal? Profitability using only 70 percent of his firm’s production capacity. Which means no plant shutdowns are planned. Keep breathing, San Antonio. Emphasizing the conservative approach is Toyota’s forecast of an $8.8 billion loss through March 2010. Analysts expect the loss to be closer to $5 billion, says AN. More autonomy for US operations and an emphasis on regionally marketed products are also major components of Toyoda’s revamp of the world’s largest automaker.

You may have been wondering—as I have—why Chrysler Ford and GM are restarting production, given that sales are down by over 30 percent. The answer’s buried in a recent report from notre amis a Credit Suisse. To wit: “Much has been made over the last several weeks about the production increase that should take place from Q2 to Q3. Indeed we expect output to increase more than 50% sequentially at the Big 3, and about 27% for the industry. But most of this is being driven by underbuild relative to demand in Q2, such that inventories should be below normal by June 30.” I know what you’re thinking: has it really come to the point where I understand/care about this kind of Inside Baseball stuff? If the answer is [a secret] yes, welcome [again] to TTAC’s The Best and Brightest! Which also means you’ll be interested in the rest of the report . . .

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