Big Cadillacs are an endangered species. Unnamed "people familiar with the situation" told Bloomberg that Caddy is adding more versions of the CTS and smaller SUVs while putting the replacements for updating the DTS and STS on hold. The Hamtramck, Michigan plant where the DTS is built alongside with the Buick Lucerne is scheduled to switch over to produce the Volt in 2010. What happens to the biggest of Cadillac's cars after that is pretty much up in the air. The future of the STS, which is built in the same plant as the CTS, is equally uncertain. While some industry experts say "it's the absolute right thing to do right now" because of declining sales of the big cars and stricter CAFE standards, they're missing an important point completely: when the DTS goes, Cadillac's last ties with its past also go – remember, DTS originally stood for "Deville Touring Sedan." It will mark the final step in taking Cadillac totally downmarket and mainstreaming a brand that once had a proud luxury heritage. Lincoln's done it and now Cadillac is doing it. Sad. Truly sad.

The Olympics kicked off Friday in Beijing, with a bright beige, smog-filled sky, intense pyrotechnics, and some incredibly impressive artistic performances by the Chinese. I missed nearly all of it due to preparation for my upcoming Iraq deployment, so  I ran into my apartment, threw my flight gear into the corner and flipped on the TV to grab what was left of the Opening Ceremonies, Instead, I watched a tribute to the GM brand in rabbit-eared-fuzzy glory. Brandi Carlile belted out "The Story" as the redundant seemingly endless range of GM vehicles paraded across the screen. I got choked up, not because of the truly good GM products they displayed (CTS, Enclave, Camaro), but because the Volt concept was shown, still with a debut date of 2010. As the tag line, "Something Shiny, Blue, and Beautiful" flashed across the screen under the GM logo, I wondered if GM still thinks a well-done commercial tugging our heartstrings and a vehicle powered by hope and pixie dust will actually restore faith destroyed by three decades of lousy products and service. Then immediately after, a local ad proclaiming $10k off new Suburbans blared out, blasting the Velcro patches off my flight suit. My sense of reality was restored. GM, you can do it. I've seen glimpses of it. I've driven it. But don't think you can erase all the bad times with sentimentality and soft-focus screen shots. Make it happen in cold, harsh daylight reality. But thanks anyways for supporting our Olympic athletes.

Even though Autosavant's J.S. Smith is "hardly a snarky, cheer-as-the-Titanic-sinks sneerful spectator," he's more than willing to lay into GM hard when they deserve it. And the decision that prompted Smith to assert that "trained monkeys could do better than the crumb-bums in the RenCen," is certainly worth the vitriol. Smith takes GM to task for deciding against bringing the Chevy Beat stateside. With Toyota bringing a five-door Yaris to the states, and Ford Euro-sizing, not bringing on the Beat "qualifies as less a business move than a bowel movement," says Smith channeling his inner Farago. He also notes that revealing the Beat in New York and asking Americans to vote for a favorite between the Beat and its Trax and Groove siblings was disingenuous at best. Considering that the Beat was handily the people's choice, the move is just plain suicidal. "Not only was GM being idiotic in its decision to not have the Beat available for sale in the US in its first generation when consumer demand for small, efficient vehicles is at a fever pitch, but the company was also dishonest about its intentions and plans for the small cars with the public… This is how you go from a 50% market share to under 20% in a generation." Well said, sir. And welcome to the "snarky, cheer-as-the-Titanic-sinks sneerful spectator" club.

After 70 years of doing business together, Chrysler and driveline supplier Dana appear headed for a nasty breakup. Automotive News [sub] reports that Dana has asked a U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York to allow it to end its business with Chrysler by the end of this year. Dana, which recently emerged from a two-year bankruptcy, is not divulging the exact causes for the rift. Increasing material costs are said to be a major reason. Dana buys steel and supplies driveline components for Chrysler's Jeep products, as well as its Dodge Viper sportscar, Nitro SUV and Ram pickup. "Our goal is to establish a mutually rewarding supply agreement with Chrysler moving forward," says Dana Chairman John Devine, in a statement asking the bankruptcy court to uphold an earlier agreement between Dana and Chrysler. If negotiations break down, Dana will abandon its business with Chrysler. This latest supplier conflict comes on the heels of Chrysler's nasty divorce from its bankrupt interior supplier Plastech, and reinforces Chrysler's (somewhat undeserved) rep as a notorious supplier abuser. On the other hand, you can't squeeze blood from a stone, and Chrysler's financial situation hardly allows it to practice far-sighted largesse with its business partners. Rock, meet hard place.

We've been hearing rumblings for some time that post-Ford Aston Martin has been talking about forming an alliance (The Axis of Axles?) with Mercedes. CAR Magazine claims to have the inside line on details emerging from the negotiations. Unsurprisingly, the cooperation seems to center on getting Mercecdes engines into future Astons, replacing the aged Ford-sourced motors currently on offer. This will supposedly include diesel and hybrid options, as well as AMG's 6.2-liter V8 which may power future Vantage models. alAston could so get Mercedes' eight-speed autobox. And there's even talk of "whole platforms to be shared by top-end models," and cooperation between Aston and Maybach (anyone remember Maybach?). In other words, no matter how hard they try, the British cann't seem to stop their most beloved brands from going German, one way or another. But, as Lieberman suggested the last time this rumor came around, all the identity politics in the world mean nothing if this cooperation makes Astons better, faster and more reliable. And if "whole platforms to be shared by top-end models" means Aston gets to drape the "death on a stick"-sounding AMG SLC in its trademark sex appeal, even Clarkson might forgo ze German jokes.

Aston Martin DBS - official promo video of the new

J.D. Power’s latest Vehicle Dependability Study (VDS) covers the relevant vehicles' third year of operation. [OEMs didn't want to pay for the fifth year study; by then the design is either out of production or almost out of production, so there's nothing they can really do with the results. Also, by then the warranty has expired, so they're not paying the costs of those repairs.] Once again, much media attention is paid to which brands did better this year (Saab), and which did worse (Buick). Once again, the public gets misleading brand scores rather than model-level results. (Brand averages can be heavily influenced by a single bad design, the introduction of a new design, or the lack thereof.) And then there’s the little matter of what counts as a “problem” in J.D.'s book. Apparently, it’s anything the survey respondent reports as a problem, rather than a manufacturer-related shortcoming. The VDS’ five most commonly reported problems include brake noise (get them serviced), pulling to one side (get your car aligned), and excessive window fogging. Window fogging? Maybe by the time the third year rolls around it’s time for customers to grab the glass cleaner.

The Detroit News' Scott Burgess describes Ford's 2009 model lineup as a "stop-gap." That means Ford's just treading water and hoping to hang on until that most magical of all years, 2010. That's when they'll finally introduce their turbocharged EcoBoost engine; we'll see a new Focus; the Escapariner gets a six-speed automatic with a new four-cylinder engine; a redesigned FusilanKZ goes on sale (complete with a hybrid model); and they introduce a redesigned Mustang. We can also expect the new Fiesta and restyled Taurus. "Fortunately, the 2010 lineup starts early next year and that has all of the makings of an All-Star Team." All they have to do is limp along for one more year and hope they can keep their head above water until then. But with all the new stuff in the pipeline, they may have problems selling the lame duck '09s.

Not only has the GM BOD not kicked Rick Wagoner out on his ass, they seem to actually, well, love him. "I can assure you that the board is unanimous in its support of Rick Wagoner and the management team to get through these difficult times. We truly feel we have the best management team to get this job done," board member George Fisher told the Detroit News. He also said the management team was "dealing with many problems they hadn't created." Uh… isn't this the same management team that's worked nowhere else but GM (save Lutz)? And hasn't Slick Rick has been in charge for the past eight years? Regardless. Fisher's confident that they have the answer. Just not right now. "The world is going to have to wait and see that we're right on this issue." When asked by the Detroit Free Press "how long a head coach can survive a string of negative results" he told them "until you're at a point when you don't think he's doing the job." So let's see… hundreds of billions of dollars down the toilet over the past few years, selling off everything that's not tied down, plummeting sales and market share– at just what point will they have their epiphany?

Do The Detroit News' headline writers have a daily cheerleading contest? Or is it more of an intellectual challenge thing: let's see if we can outspin the spinners? Why else would the Motown paper bury the fact that Ford's killed plans for a downsized version of their full-sized F-150 pickup in the text of an article titled "Ford high on fuel sippers?" Drug-related snickers aside, the meat of the matter arrives in paragraph seven, where we learn Ford reckons a more fuel-efficient, EcoBoosted F-150 obviates the need for the F-100. "The Detroit News has learned, the automaker has put aside plans to build the F-100, a smaller, lighter version of the F-150. The new truck was to have been built at the Michigan Truck Plant in Wayne, but Ford has decided to retool that plant to produce small cars. It could still build the F-100 at one of its other truck plants if it later determines there is a need for the product. Ford has also taken steps to ensure that it can quickly change its mind if it decides it needs to bring a new global version of the Ranger to the United States." Cost-cutting, smart move or cost cutting disguised as a smart move? "The small pickup segment doesn't really provide a lot of benefit," analyst Erich Merkle told the DetN. "You buy a pickup truck for bed space and towing. There really isn't much substitute for a full-size pickup. But it all depends on what happens to the price of fuel." Now I'm really confused…

Toyota is beginning to feel The Big 2.8's pain. The world's largest automaker released their first quarter financial results. No question: they got dinged. While ToMoCo's books are not in the same universe as GM or Ford, the Japanese carmaker's operating profit dropped 39 percent to "only" $3.8b. That's just over half of the $6.2b they showed for the same quarter last year. Toyota Exec VP Mitsuo Kinoshita attributes the losses to a number of factors, including the weak U.S. dollar and the soaring price of raw materials. He's not too concerned over lease residuals and dropping used car prices, though. "With Toyota's traditionally prudent approach in lending, together with its efforts to further strengthen the credit control and collection system, the percentage of credit losses has shown some stability. As for residual values, Toyota will continue to keep a close eye on the used car market and set suitable values in a timely manner." This is the second consecutive quarter their operating profit has dropped. [source: Toyota Press Release]

Click here for First Quarter Operating Results and First Quarter Financial Summary

Packard had a long, proud history of building head-of-state-worthy whips. But what's the long defunct company actually worth these days? Ask the man who owns one! Roy Gulickson has been president of Packard since he bought the company name in 1995, and now he's trying to sell it for a princely $1.5m. So for Veyron money you could own a classic luxury marque of your own, complete with engineering designs, tools, spare parts and supplier information… from 1958. But wait, there's more! Reuters says Gulickson will also throw in "a new Packard prototype that comes with an all-aluminum V-12 engine and a traditional chrome grille." And by "new" they mean it was built in 1998. If you are foolhardy bold and visionary enough to want to resurrect a once-proud American luxury brand, you might want to move soon on this. An analyst insists that four companies have expressed "serious interest" in buying the company. Gullickson does admit that "perhaps using a smaller engine or converting it to run on compressed natural gas" would make the prototype more attractive in the era of four dollar gas– but that's a problem for the buyer to figure out. Meanwhile, Packard purists insist the brand should be allowed to rest in peace.

Ford's PR machine is working overtime. Before 10 AM, FoMoCo sent out seven press releases. The first missive trumpets the fact that the 2009 Focus will be available in a SEL trim line with a lot of standard stuff that's optional on other Focii. And all Focii will now have electronic stability control (standard on the Hyundai Elantra). The next release tells the world that $1,995 buys you a glass roof panel for your 2009 Mustang. Release three: The Blue Oval Boys are moving up the introduction of an "industry-first innovation" (the Blind Spot Mirror) by a year, and making it standard on the 2009 Edge. Release number four reveals the pains to which FoMoCo goes– "driving, shaking, baking and freezing the vehicle"– to keep the Flex from living up to its name. Another news flash! The Lincoln MKS is available in luscious White Chocolate, Sangria and Cinnamon (dieters can delight in Tuxedo Black Metallic, White Suede, Brilliant Silver Metallic, Smokestone, Light Ice Blue and Dark Ink Blue). The penultimate press release brags that the MKS "outsold the Acura RL, Infiniti M35 and Cadillac STS" in July, thanks to "unique marketing and education efforts underway since the vehicle was introduced in November." Finally, Ford wants us to know that their powertrain lineup "underscores four key pillars of the company's 'Drive one' communications effort: Drive Green, Drive Smart, Drive Quality, and Drive Safe." Interestingly it says nothing about driving me crazy. And the day's not over yet…

While The Big D2.8 try to get their product-related shit together in a post $4-a-gallon world, their vulnerability in the still-shaky credit markets threatens to throw them into bankruptcy. Which is why Chrysler was so hell-bent on renewing its $30b credit facilities, regardless of the high costs of default protection. Automotive News [sub] reports that the facility has been rescued, although this time around Chrysler Financial could only hustle up $24b. No worries, say ChryFi spokesfolks. They claim that's all they need now that they've abandoned the leasing game. Some 90 percent of the new credit facility is being backed by banks that were part of the original financing, suggesting that financial firms are doubling down on the troubled automaker. Chrysler won't say exactly what interest rates are being charged on the facility. But given the high default risks of all domestic automakers, it's safe to assume that Auburn Hills isn't getting a charity handout. After all, that's the government's job, not Wall Street's. And until such time as government-backed cheap credit becomes available, Chrysler (et al) will continue to hemorrhage cash to keep credit lines like this one open. Like the poet said, mo' credit, mo' problems.

According to UniCredit SpA [via Bloomberg], one of America's three biggest automakers is almost certain to default within the next five years. Extrapolating from risk premiums on credit-default swaps, GM faces an 84 percent chance of default, while Ford is looking at "at least 75 percent risk." Jochen Felsenheimer, chief of credit strategy at UniCredit, says "The costs imply there is close to 100 percent probability that one of the big three will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy." And there's little the D3 can do to prevent default if the overall economic climate doesn't improve– and soon. "There might be a default at any time.'' It's the Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), stupid. A variant of the Structured Investment Vehicles that brought down the mortgage market, CDO's are securities that repackage pools of bonds, loans and credit-default swaps and divide their cash flow into notes of varying risk and returns, which are then sold to investors. Credit-default swaps on GM and Ford were included in more than 80 percent of CDOs created before they lost their investment-grade debt rankings in 2005, according to Standard & Poor's. Bottom line: if one of the domestics goes down, it's taking a whole lot of market with it. With GM paying $4.7m upfront plus $500,000 a year to secure each $10m in financing, it's not a question of if, but when.

In July, GM, Toyota, Ford, Honda and Chrysler accounted for almost 73 percent of new vehicle sales in the U.S. But individually, how are they doing? To answer that I'm going to start tracking their overall market share and comparing them to each other, plus trending their market shares for 2006, 2007 and 2008. In July, GM held onto 20.5 percent of the market and has a 21.6 percent average market share year to date. Toyota's nipping at GM's heels, though, with 17.4 percent of sales in July and is averaging 16.9 percent of sales so far this year. Ford slipped below Toyota in April, but they're managing to keep Honda at bay so far. Ford's share for July was 14.2 percent against Honda's 12.2 percent; year to date Ford hangs onto 15.3 percent of the market. Honda's 10.8 percent average market share so far this year is still below Chrysler's average 11.4 percent share, but Honda passed Chrysler in May and is well ahead of Chrysler's 8.6 percent share in July. Where will it all end up? Hard to say with today's volatile market, but we'll keep our eyes on it and let you know as and when the music stops.