Twenty-four hours after Ford's PR man Mark Fields declared battery research a "national priority," the US Department of Energy (DOE) announced it's giving $30m in research money to General Motors, Ford and General Electric. (Don't despair Mopar fans, as GE is already working with Chrysler on a plug-in hybrid.) Each company will work on a different aspect of battery technology. GM will focus on lithium ion packs and their integration with vehicles and homes. Ford will attempt to tackle the manufacturing process. GE will concern themselves with "dual-battery" technology, whatever that may mean. While the DOE's grant isn't exactly the $500m Fields declared necessary to secure our technological borders, it's still a hefty chunk of change. Expect the initiative to bear PHEV fruit in 2016, some six years after the plug-in electric gas hybrid Chevrolet Volt's supposed debut.
Category: Industry
Commerzbank (Frankfurt, Germany) senior commodity analyst Eugen Weinberg joins the growing chorus of finance gurus predicting the popping of over-inflated oil prices. Weinberg sees oil dropping below $100 per barrel in 2009. His crystal ball also tells him that crude prices haven't yet quite hit their peak in this rally. He expects the price of oil futures contracts to collapse only after soaring to $150 and $170 in the next three months. Who's to blame? Weinberg say, "The trigger for this extremely fast-growing bubble is above all the poor performance of other investment classes, like stocks, bonds and property." (I swear, Herr Weinberg must read TTAC!) I guess this means that I'll keep my Jeep parked and drive the Honda until next spring. Over to you, Stein…
A couple of weeks ago, we reported that GM would be building a new small car at the Lordstown OH plant where they now build Cobalts and Pontiac G5s. Wards reveals the mystery car: the next-gen Chevy Optra, replacing the Cobalt/G5. The Optra (AKA Daewoo Lacetti, Suzuki Forenza and Buick Excelle) will be produced at GM-Daewoo's plant in Gunsan, Korea starting toward the end of this year. Production will expand to Ohio in 2010 "pending conclusion of GM's negotiations to obtain state and local investment incentives from Ohio authorities." The U.S.-spec Optra will feature a 1.4-liter turbocharged four-cylinder engine with "considerably upscale" and "sporty" styling. It'll be joined by a redesigned Aveo (Daewoo Gentra) in an "entirely new portfolio of Chevrolet small and compact vehicles." In a move akin to the "Chevy Classic," "Malibu Classic" and "Silverado Classic" games GM's played in the past, the Gunsan plant will continue to produce the current Optra "for certain export markets" along with the "dramatically different" new model. That "dramatic difference" better include dramatic improvements in materials and build quality if Chevy expects to sell it in what's becoming a highly competitive small car market.
TTAC burned a lot of metaphorical midnight oil trying to make heads or tails of plug-in EVs. Thankfully Ford's mouthpiece Mark Fields is here to set us straight about our energy independence, via the "It's important to note most battery supply is currently being developed in Asia," Fields told the Detroit News. "For those looking to plug-ins to answer our energy security concerns, we must ensure a domestic battery supply. Moving from imported oil to imported batteries clearly would not address this growing concern." I'm struggling to remember if that's a masked-man fallacy, a package deal fallacy of just plain old Ignoratio elenchi. Luckily (for Ford) politicians are completely immune to all forms of logic. If Fields keeps making arguments like this, Detroit might get the $500m of our tax dollars they so desperately crave for battery R&D. But, spades being spades, he's confusing the issue. At least.
ABC's decision to create a TV show based on the high drama of Detroit's auto tycoons is not particularly surprising. The backstabbing, corruption and alliances that you read about in these pages are often far more compelling than anything in the networks' lineups. But much like Detroit's interiors, Hollywood's high-concept pilots rarely hold up to more than a passing glance. The Prince Of Motor City is no exception. Rather than mining Detroit's rich, stranger-than-fiction heritage, the producers of TPOMC are erring on the side of hackery by simply transplanting the plot of Hamlet to the Motor City. Philosophy lecturer (yes, really) Billy Hamilton's father dies, leaving him in control of "Hamilton Motors," where he deals with uncle/mom entanglement, a ghost haunting the factory, a "spunky" girlfriend, and other eerie parallels to Disney's The Lion King. Ultimately, pilots rarely make it past that first episode– even if their scripts were written hundreds of years ago. ABC should ditch the Hamlet retread for some cheaper and far more entertaining Detroit-inspired reality television. Survivor: Detroit would sell itself, Extreme Makeover Chrysler Edition would tap into reality-show schadenfreude, and a show about Volt development could bring back the old Mission Impossible moniker. Then, there's always The Biggest Loser…
Dell Computers wants to sell you a car. According to Automotive News [sub], we're talking expensive cars. Even though high gas prices and a crippled economy have put the brakes on the high end car market, Michael Dell re-thinks different. He sees "opportunity all up and down the spectrum." Dell CEO and former Sonic Automotive President Jeffrey Rachor might just be planning to spend $500m on premium and import car dealerships. Why? "When people are panicking and don't really know what to do, that's probably the period of greatest opportunity from an investor's standpoint to make changes and do good things." OK, but why cars? The elephant in the room: Dell's straight to the customer sales paradigm. Is the long-awaited era of B2C mass customization upon us?
Edmunds Inside Line hears from mysterious "supplier sources" that the Blue Oval won't build new Mercurys after 2012. Why on earth would Ford kill a beloved brand with such a rich heritage? Maybe because Mercury sales are set to drop below Lincoln's for the first time since 1938. The Fusion-based Milan should be the last of its current models manning the ramparts, once the Montego and Grand Marquis hit the dust sometime in 2011 or early 2012. Looking down the road, the Mercury cup hardly runneth over, without even a version of Lincoln's Flexible MKT crossover or the 2010 Ford Taurus. Edmunds rests its case with this quote from Ford Presidente del Americas, Mark Fields: "We've laid out a strategy to focus a lot of our efforts going forward on the Lincoln side of the franchise. That's where a majority of our focus is going to be, and Lincoln will become the dominant portion of the Lincoln-Mercury franchise, which is a flip from the history." But if that sounds too grim, note that Fields told Automotive News [sub] that "[Mercury] is an important part of the stable of brands." In fact, FoMoCo would continue to invest in the nameplate. Is this a sign of internal divisions over Mercury's fate? All things being equal, it's probably just a ruse to generate faith in the brand, while it's being taken out back to be shot.
As goes ToMoCo, so Ghosn Nissan. Once truck-happy, Nissan is shifting its production away from not-so-good-on-gas trucks and SUVs and is instead building more cars. Nearly alone in the industry, Nissan's sales rose 8.4 percent in May. However, sales of the full-size Titan and Armada were off a 50 percent each. Nissan stayed afloat on the back on the Altima; the CamCord competitor saw its sales climb to 34,428 units (up 43 percent). By shifting around production at its North American plants, Nissan feels it can up production of the hot selling Altima, while decreasing production of the not big boys– without laying off any workers. The shift should yield an additional 2k Altimas a month. It doesn't mean Nissan is getting out of the truck business, though. The Titan will be replaced by a Mexican-built badge-engineered Dodge Ram while Nissan rebadges Frontiers as "Equators" for Suzuki. The plant currently building Titans will start building commercial vehicles.
After an abortive 1995 takeover attempt (co-starring "Captain" Kirk Kerkorian), former Chrysler CEO Lee Iacocca became persona non grata in Auburn Hills. With the DCX disaster fading into memory and current owners Cerberus thrashing around for something, anything that feels good, Chrysler is rehabilitating the Iaccoca legacy. Who better symbolizes the ballsy leadership needed to get Chrysler through its current, second-darkest hour, than the man who got the government to foot the bailout bill at the undisputed low point? Plus, since Bob Lutz made old feisty guys the official mascots of millennial Detroit, Chrysler had to rustle-up one of their own from somewhere. Accordingly, the Detroit Free Press reports that the Iacocca embrace will culminate at an Auburn Hills "employee rally" in Iaccoca's honor is planned for June 26. "This is a good idea," former Chrysler marketing chief Bud Liebler tells the Freep. "Cerberus is still kind of a question mark here in Detroit. And this says, 'We really care about Chrysler.' It will make employees feel good and dealers feel good." Which begs the question: how bad are things at Chrysler, if dealers and employees are really being cheered-up by 80's bailout nostalgia?
What if you threw a party for 20 million guests and over a billion said sure, they'd love to go! The AP [via Yahoo!] reports on Tracinda's offer to buy Ford Motor Company common stock for $8/share. Roughly half of the outstanding shares were tendered against the offer. The response reflects the pervasive pessimistic view of FoMoCo future; offer stockholders a little over the present trading price and they are so out-a-here. Maybe Kirk has a dastardly plan to buy up 10k Ford Explorers for $15m (fleet pricing), sell 'em to friends in Saudi Arabia, drive up the price of Ford stock, then dump his stock at a profit. Far fetched for sure. But what other explanation can we devise for Kirk Kerkorian's hots for Ford stock? Unless, of course, you have plans to seize control of the company.
The G8 economic ministers met this weekend in Tokyo to talk about the price of oil. Normally this meeting of the wealthiest nations ends with a call for the little fish of the world to do their part and pump more oil in support of the cheap oil-powered big boys. According to Reuters, they've changed their tune. There's "a growing acceptance that consumer nations must find ways to temper their own demand by focusing on technology, conservation and diversification rather than hounding OPEC to pump ever more oil." Lone old-school holdout: Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. Rudd urged the G8 to 'apply the blow-torch' to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman ain't buying it: "There are relatively few things we can do short term." Meanwhile, back in my home state of California, we have blown through $4/gallon headed for $5/gallon. Susanne Garfield, spokeswoman for the California Energy Commission blames refinery maintenance work. Hmm, we have been hearing about maintenance supply disruptions as temporary factors for many years now, but the prices keep going up. The $99 question is whether $5/gallon is the high point, or just a stop along the way.
"We, therefore, the undersigned citizens of the United States, petition the U.S. Congress to act immediately to lower gasoline prices (and diesel and other fuel prices)* by authorizing the exploration of proven energy reserves to reduce our dependence on foreign energy sources from unstable countries." The 450k e-signatures on this petition at americansolutions.com indicate that a large number of Americans favor punching holes in The Land of the Free to free us from dependency on foreign oil. Chuck Norris, last seen supporting presidential candidate Mike Huckebee, is down with that. He's signed, and sent a far less pithy message to our Texas elected lawmakers: "Congress, get off your gas, and drill!" The bullet points ('natch) list restrictions on domestic oil production and some side effects (e.g. American Airlines going out of business.) "If there isn't a conspiracy going on here, someone needs to make a movie about one!" Norris announces, pimping for work. At least he's conciliatory at the end "Congratulations Congress – you're completely failing us."
The Toyota Camry is one of four vehicles (including the Corolla) that now sells more prolifically than Ford's dethroned F150 full-sized pickup. At the same time, the new Toyota Tundra pickup is a drug on the market; sales fell 34 percent vs. May 2007. Do the math. ToMoCo have. The transplant's looking at using its famed production flexibility to replace excess Tundra capacity with Camry assembly. Automotive News [sub] reports that Toyota is switching its Princeton, Indiana plant from cranking-out slow-selling Tundra/Sequoia trucks and Sienna minivans to producing the Camry, which sold 51,291 units last month. Though Toyota has not officially responded to the reports of production shuffling, though the company does say it's "looking at a lot of things to balance production." With Tundra production already slowed at Toyota's second truck plant in San Antonio, there's no doubt that Toyota (like many automakers) is over invested in a product that dropped sales to the tune of 31 percent last month. Camry spent much of the 1990's at the top of sedan sales records, and with the battle for the best selling vehicle in America wide open, boosting Camry production could help Toyota's champion snag top-spot bragging rights.
In response to my manifesto on The Truth About High Gas Prices, a couple of people close to me confidentially told me that they thought I was nuts for predicting sub-$80 per barrel oil “in the not too distant future.” According to an economist at the Dallas Federal Reserve, I should have gone lower with my prognostication. Stephen Brown observes that cheap Saudi Arabian oil costs just $4 a barrel to produce. The most expensive oil on the market today, and the oil that set’s the world price, known as the “final barrel” or equilibrium price, is just $50 per barrel. Shawn Tully, CNNMoney editor, concludes, “It's even possible that, a few years hence, we could see a sustained period of plentiful oil supplies and low prices, meaning $50 or below.” But that doesn’t mean that it won’t get worse before it gets better. Today, the oil futures bubble inflated to a new record high above $135 a barrel, before settling back down to $134.35.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Michael Jackson is joining a growing chorus shouting "take your medicine." No it's not MJ handing a can of Coke to a young fan. It's the CEO of mega-dealer AutoNation, who thinks "high gas prices are good for the U.S. auto industry." Just as Scott McClellan trash-talking the Bush administration, Jackson is biting the hand that feeds. "We are highly skilled at selling size, horsepower and speed at a premium price, and giving away fuel efficiency," Jackson opines. "Now, going forward over the next 10 years we are going to have to convince consumers why they should pay more for a smaller engine, or some new technology, that is going to give them a tremendous benefit on fuel efficiency." Surely it's a new day in the US of A when the top car salesman in the land embraces the challenge of selling fuel efficiency. Who's bad?

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