CAFE standards could rise as far as 75mpg by 2030. So sayeth the director of the Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Transportation and Air Quality, speaking to (at?) the Society of Automotive Engineers. The Detroit News reports that Marge Oge told the assembled throngs that making a 50 percent (from 2000 levels) cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050– a widely-held goal amongst the green movement's chattering classes– would require steady improvements in vehicle efficiency. Ya think? She think. "The political, economic and regulatory landscape in the United States and globally has changed dramatically over the past year," said Oge. "The reality is the pace of change will not be letting up anytime soon." With one billion cars projected to be on the road globally by 2030, and oil demand by China and India set to double in the same period, Oge says the industry "needs to be thinking of those investments for the long term basis." Oge also revealed an internal EPA study which concludes that automakers will be able to meet the 2020 35mpg CAFE standard by 2018 with cost-effective measures, despite industry grousing. How's that then?

Part of the fun of this job: remembering what people said. For example, exactly one month ago, the Detroit Free Press was all about "in-sourcing." "'Due to recent UAW concessions,' [Merrill Lynch automotive analyst] John Murphy wrote in a recent note to investors, 'these tasks [parts design and manufacture] can now be sourced to internal workers at comparable costs and without significant investment in infrastructure… We are convinced that an insourcing trend is emerging.'" Anyone who's been watching the domestics rush to send work abroad– from Chinese-made engines in Chevy's Equinox to Indian programmers taking over Chrysler's IT work— would be forgiven for calling bullshit. And now the Freep's sister paper (The Detroit News) reports that "Auto suppliers will shoulder a bigger burden of research and development costs as automakers look to shift some of the billions of dollars in costs of developing high-tech features in future vehicles, executives said Monday at SAE International's 2008 World Congress." In fact, our man Don Walker of Magna, friend of the little guys, reckons auto suppliers' share of the carmakers' total R&D spend will jump from 40 to 60 percent by 2012. 

Let's recap. Chrysler builds pickup trucks for Mitsubishi. Chery is working on a U.S.-market subcompact for Chrysler. Chrysler is selling a rebadged Chery as a Dodge in Mexico. Volkswagen is selling Chrysler-built minivans in the U.S. Nissan is building small trucks for Suzuki to sell in the U.S. and Versas to be sold as Chryslers in Brazil. Chrysler has been talking with Great Wall Motors in China about something. Now, just in case all these relationships aren't confusing enough, The Detroit Free Press reports that Chrysler and Nissan announced Chrysler will build a version of the Ram pickup in Mexico for Nissan to sell in the U.S. In return, Nissan will build a North American-bound small car in Japan for Chrysler. In a way, all this makes sense, particularly the Chrysler-Nissan deals. After all, Chrysler has a well-established presence in the truck and van market while Nissan and Chery specialize in small cars. All they're doing is capitalizing on each other's strengths. However, the more Nissan and Chrysler snuggle-up together, the more it seems that Nissan is testing the waters for establishing an American partner– something Carlos Ghosn has promised, eventually. Don't be surprised if in the next few years you hear that Chrysler's building vans for Nissan or that Nissan's supplying Altima drivetrain components for the Sebring/Avenger. And when Cerberus starts the flip 'n strip with Chrysler, Nissan will be right there to pick up the pieces. You heard it here first.

Thus far, the New Chrysler's (domestic) turnaround strategy has been very emo: lots of cutting and complaining, and not much else. A press release indicates they hope to turn that image around.  Trumpeting a "barrage" of technologies and innovations, they purport to offer customers improved fuel economy, performance, flexibility and convenience. Increased internet connectivity is promised on "future model-year vehicles" via combined WiFi and 4G technologies which will "transform the vehicle into a 'hot spot' to deliver Internet and e-mail access, and movie and music download capability." Rear-cross and blind-spot monitoring systems will be offered on the company's minivans, an "in-class" exclusive says the release, piggy-backing on last weeks Ford announcement. Chrysler continues its game of catch up with Ford by offering improved voice-activated systems ala SYNC, throwing in iPod integration and a swivel-screen for the backseat in minivans. The only major bone tossed to enthusiasts is a new active transfer case for 2009 AWD 300 and Charger models. The new transfer case improves traction and fuel economy, while also allowing front-axle shutoff, creating a seamless transition between RWD and AWD modes. Hey, something is better than nothing.

India's auto industry currently accounts for five percent of the country's rapidly-expanding Gross Domestic Product (GDP). According to the Economic Times of India, the government has set the sector a new goal: quintupling its size by 2016 (the red-hot Indian economy is set to merely double in the same period). By then, the auto industry should be a $150b+ segment, making up ten percent of India's GDP. The Times says economic liberalization– allowing unrestricted Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and removing foreign currency neutralization and export obligations– has been the key to India's automotive boom. India currently builds 11m vehicles per year. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sees the car biz as ambassadors for "Brand India;" he's courting a further $35b – $40b in FDI for the industry. That's 16m Tata Nanos, in case you're wondering.

Bloomberg reports that Chrysler is finally going to execute the Jeep Commander. The Commander is/was the retro-styled (i.e. brick-shaped) gas-guzzling SUV whose packaging had RF proclaiming "Thanks to a foot well that's shallower than the British Royal family's gene pool, even polypeptide deficient three-year-olds sitting in the way back run the risk of giving themselves a pair of shiners with their knees (try explaining THAT to social services)." Jeep introduced the Commander,in 2005– just in time for the start of the fuel crisis. The slightly stretched and rebodied Grand Cherokee was supposed to give Chrysler an inroad to the three-row SUV market. Instead, it languished on the lots, selling only 88.5k in 2006. In 2007, sales dropped 29 percent. So far this year, sales are down 43 percent (large SUV sales are down 28 percent overall). Time of death: mid-2009. Tag it and bag it.

The ties between Tata Motors and Fiat are plentiful; Ratan Tata sits on Fiat's board, and the two firms run several joint manufacturing ventures in India. And with Tata's recent purchase of Jaguar and Land Rover comes an opportunity for Fiat's performance brand Alfa Romeo to piggyback on Jaguar's existing rear wheel-drive sedan architecture. Fiat development boss Harald Wester tells Auto Motor und Sport that the two firms are already discussing details of the possible platform share. "We have diverse worldwide cooperations with Tata," said Wester, "because of this, it makes sense for us to seek opportunities with Jaguar and Land Rover. Naturally, a properly-dimensioned rear-wheel drive platform would serve Alfa well, and we're working on that. But there are more options. One alternative is developing a unique platform for Maserati, Alfa and Lancia. Another is that Maserati would get a unique platform, while the other two brands would share with a partner (Jaguar)." A Jaguar XF in a sharp Italian suit with Alfa badges could be exactly what the brand needs when it launches stateside in 2010, while platform-sharing would help Jaguar improve its profitability.

Environmental issues have topped cost reduction as the major concern for the auto industry for the first time according to a survey by DuPont and the Society of the Automotive Industry (SAE) [via CNN Money]. The survey of automotive designers and engineers picked a basket of challenges– from CAFE standards to emissions controls– as the industry's top concern, unseating cost reduction after 14 years. Fifty-three percent of those polled selected environmental concerns vs. 32 percent who went with cost reduction, Some 54 percent also say consumers are most concerned with improvements in fuel efficiency; only 37 percent think improved comfort and convenience float purchasers' semi-metaphorical boat. In less surprising news, alternative fuel-powered vehicles were named as the technology with the greatest impact on the car industry for the fifth year running. Biofuels and weight reductions also climbed in importance in this year's poll, completing the snapshot of an industry in transition.

Remember Ford's promise to improve SUV fuel economy by 25 percent by 2005? Or the one about building a quarter-million hybrids by 2010? Well, the Detroit Free Press reports that The Blue Oval Boyz are at it again. FoMoCo's pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from its U.S. and European vehicles (no mention of Chinese or Australian models) by 30 percent by 2020. So what makes them think they can keep this promise? Better modeling, says Ford's VP for sustainability, environment and safety engineering. "We started this 'modeling' three years ago" Sue Cishcke reveals. "And that's given us confidence to be able to say what our thinking and blueprint and plan is, and how it's aligning with the regulations." Of course, meeting the new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards will increase fuel efficiency by 40 percent– and reduce greenhouse emissions drastically. And when do these new regs go into effect? Why it's 2020! What a coincidence.

Chrysler's forced summer vacation will not include all North American plants as previously reported. The Aurora Advocate reports that the Twinsburg Stamping Plant and the Windsor Assembly plant might stay open during the planned two-week idle, along with a possible third, unnamed factory. Chrysler Manager for Manufacturing Communications says the Windsor plant could continue making vans– if demand stays [?} high into the summer. "We will make adjustments to consumer demands," Ed Saenz announced. Meanwhile, some Chrysler employees have already used their paid vacation day; they'll be forced to take unpaid vacation days during the shutdown. Saenz proves that he is, at least a friend of a friend of the working classes. He reassured Chrysler employees that next year will be easier– they'll be aware of the fact that they have no choice as to when they'll take their vacation. Provided the company isn't already in C11.

Nissan is switching production at its Canton, MS factory from the Quest minivan and Infiniti QX56 SUV to light commercial vehicles (LCV). USA Today reports that the commercial-grade trucks will start rolling off the line in 2010, and that Nissan has yet to decide if the outgoing Quest and QX56 will be replaced. "When we get to the end of each vehicle's cycle, we look at the market" and decide the fate of each vehicle, says Nissan spokeswoman Frederique Le Greves. "The decision has not been finalized. The intention is to continue them, but we don't know where we will manufacture them." Parse the PR-speak, and you get "maybe we'll replace them if minivan and SUV sales pick up." Canton will continue to produce Titan pickups and Altima sedans, while the $118m production switchover takes place. New LCVs will be built for the US market in the eight-ton gross vehicle weight class, powered by 50-state emissions control compatible Cummins turbodiesel engines.

It's a testament to the roaring Chinese economy that A-listed automakers in the Middle Kingdom increased output and sales by about 22 percent but still didn't meet analysts expectations (damn those demanding analysts!). But Manufacturing Business Technology reports that profits didn't rise in concert with sales and production. This sets up the industry for a tough time as commodity prices are expected to rise substantially over the next several years. Runaway steel prices will cost Chinese firms an extra $1.5b this year, and low profit rates mean these costs will likely be handed down to consumers. Against a backdrop of rising inflation for everything from food to fuel, this development will probably hurt sales in China's value-oriented market. All this bad news likely spells industry reshuffling in the offing, as low utilization of production capacity in the automotive sector should fuel a flurry of mergers and acquisitions to allow companies to stay competitive during the projected two-to-three year lull.

"It's one of those rare businesses: when the economy struggles, Henry McCarty's work thrives," reports KHOU (via CNN). Henry McCarty's "work" is repossessing cars from those who've fallen behind on the payments. Just how good is the repo business in the Houston, TX area these days? "We're running 24 hours a day, seven days a week, just to keep up," says McCarty, who runs Citywide Lien Enforcements. McCarty says "There's a lot of people out there that fall on tough times," and default on car and truck loans. "They're bankers, they're police officers, they're… you know, even doctors." KHOU reporter Kevin Peters says that nationwide, about 1.5m vehicles were repossessed last year, up 15 percent from 2006. He adds that "experts" predict another "10-percent jump" in the number of repos this year. As for repo man McCarty, he says most folks don't try to stop him when he shows up to tow a vehicle away, in fact, most people expect it. "People are just givin' up these bigger cars because of gas prices, you know, they're going to the more economicals." English skills aside, McCarty's knows the good times for his business come at the expense of those less fortunate: "We're not out there to try and be the bad guys." In other words, don't take it personally- it's just business.

Buried in a Detroit News story about further disruption at GM– courtesy of the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike at American Axle (AA)– we learn GM has "found" enough parts to restart production in Oshawa, Ontario and Fort Wayne, Ind. (Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups). This after GM announced that they'd "found" enough Malibu parts to hold-off a shutdown for an "extra week." Turns out the fortuitous happenstance comes courtesy of American Axle's Mexican ops. "[GM Spokesman Dan] Flores wouldn't specify where the parts are coming from, though several analysts have said GM is likely using parts from an American Axle plant in Mexico. The move is evidence American Axle's ability to get parts from Mexico gives it leverage in the dispute with the UAW, said labor expert Harley Shaiken of the University of California Berkley [sic]." So… why aren't the United Auto Workers bosses screaming bloody murder and threatening to strike GM in support of their members at AA? Maybe it's because The Star-Telegram reports "GM leaders have decided to divert the Arlington plant's supply of truck axles to other plants in order to augment production of pickups affected by the ongoing UAW strike against American Axle." We report, we're confused.