At this morning’s press conference, GM CEO Fritz Henderson couched his decision to “choose” viability over jobs in terms of lowering GM’s break-even point. Like job cuts, UAW concessions and nearly every other recent viability-oriented reform goal, GM’s break-even point predictions have been consistently more optimistic than leading reality-based indicators. With every new viability scheme, GM’s assumptions about the demand for US-market new cars in 2009 have been revised downward. According to the NY Times, even though this is viability plan V3, GM may still have some reality embracing to do.
Or so says Automotive News [sub] Executive Editor, Edward Lapham, in a brief aside. According to Lapham, Chrysler is ramping up a major ad campaign (a fact that remains unconfirmed by Chrysler) that steals from the $5 billion supplier bailout fund. “Through its ad agencies,” writes Lapham, “Chrysler is lining up major media that are willing to accept a price cut of 2 percent in exchange for assured payment under the federally funded critical-supplier payment plan.” Because Chrysler wanted to see if its post-bailout supplier relations could possibly be worse. Although to be fair, those two percent savings do add up . . . to about 30 pieces of silver.
Dimmick, Chuck P. born December 29, 1958 in Riverside, CA passed away suddenly on April 18, 2009 while attending a NASCAR race to watch his favorite driver, Jeff Gordon. Chuck was the loving husband of Kristen and devoted father of Dillon. Chuck was the Director of Marketing for the Lund Cadillac Group. We are sure he would still want all to know that 0.9% financing is still available on all New 2008 Hummer H2’s. A mass celebrating Chuck’s life will be held at 11:00 AM on Friday, April 24th at St. Patrick’s Church – 10815 N. 84th St. Scottsdale, AZ. Arrangements handled by Hansen Desert Hill Mortuary 480-991-5800. In Lieu of flowers, contributions may be made to the Dillon Dimmick Donation Fund at any Bank of America.
Pop quiz time: how many viability schemes has GM touted since it began asking for bailout bucks? Including today’s announcements (actual plan not yet released) General Motors has submitted no fewer than three new business models since it began receiving Treasury funds in mid-December. And that doesn’t even include the first two “requests” which were rejected by Congress before GM cut out the middlemen and started dealing directly with the guys who print the money. The progression of this parade of plans illustrates a single major theme: the slow, reluctant acceptance of some approximation of reality. Which includes confronting the fact that GM’s bloated payroll trades off with its viability. The Detroit News reports that GM now understands that it pays 21,000 more employees than it can support, and that these positions will be terminated. That’s 7,000 more job cuts than the last (February) plan called for. The December plan (now lost to the GM memory hole, but hosted at TTAC here (PDF)) didn’t call for job cuts at all because the bailout was all about saving jobs back in those days. The cuts amount to a 34 percent decrease in hourly employment, with plans to stabilize employment levels at 38,000 by 2011. GM’s hourly labor costs will drop from $7.6 billion in 2008 to $5 billion in 2010, as GM seeks to “lower its break-even point” according to CEO Fritz Henderson.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot indeed. How could Toyota Prius, The Next Generation, not offer direct access to Apple’s technophile (technophobe?) gizmo? No USB paradise by the dashboard lights? True story, brought to you by PriusChat (motto: “Press our buttons”). “The USB integration won’t be available out of the factory until September, and it will only come with the Navigation option package that is available in the Prius III, IV, and V. Customers who buy their Navigation-equipped Prius before September will be able to have the USB kit installed at the dealer, but at their own expense. There are no specifics right now, but it looks like in September when the USB connectivity is added to the Navigation package, the price of the Navigation package will be going up. It hasn’t been established yet whether that price increase would be the same as the price a dealer will charge to install it, or if the dealer-installed USB will be more expensive.” It doesn’t take much Insight, or a Honda Odyssey without iPhone integration, to realize that this is a major marketing misstep by the ToMoCo. Did you know that Microsoft’s Zune can operate through your vehicle’s FM radio? Just sayin’.
The Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) dedicated last week to “Work Zone Safety Awareness” so that it could begin redeploying speed cameras on freeways. Bright orange publicity signs told motorists to “Give ’em a Brake” while fifty-six bright orange highway worker jackets hung from WSDOT offices as a reminder of the number of highway workers who have died since 1950. “The men and women who work on our state and local highways are often working in and near traffic, and we want everyone to go home to their loved ones at the end of their work day,” WSDOT Secretary Paula Hammond said in a statement. According to WSDOT’s own statistics, however, they do go home safely each night.
The New York Times reports (and GM CEO Fritz Henderson’s comments at this morning’s press conference confirm) that the US treasury has plans to “own” GM. If the current bondholder offer goes through, “the Treasury and the UAW would own up to 89 percent of the company’s outstanding shares, while bondholders would hold no more than 10 percent and current shareholders would hold 1 percent. The Treasury would hold more than half of G.M. on its own and therefore have control over the election of its board of directors and other matters requiring the approval of shareholders.” A reporter brought up the fact that bondholders’ $10 billion debt swap would buy them 10 percent of the new GM, while the unions would get 39 percent for their $10 billion haircut. Fritz declined to address this issue—probably because there’s not a damn thing he can do about it. Of course, the offer won’t go through. But the principle will be established. And then, according to The Wall Street Journal, consummated in federal bankruptcy court.
If 90 percent of GM’s bondholders don’t exchange, GM’s bankruptcy is a done deal. In other words, it’s a done deal. Or, as GM CEO Fritz Henderson said, it’s “more probable.” [Download pdf here.] How’s this for investor appeal? “If we seek bankruptcy relief, you may receive consideration that is less than what is being offered in the exchange offers and it is possible that you may receive no consideration at all for your GM notes.” And here’s a wrinkle TTAC’s Ken Elias has brought to our attention: the offer treats all bondholders the same, regardless of when their notes come due. “That’s because there’s no way to negotiate with different classes of bondholders outside of bankruptcy.” Ken reckons all of this is just window dressing: “They’re just softening-up the battlefield for a Chapter 11.” And here’s the really strange bit: GM’s stock went up 40 cents on the news. As Mandark would say, Haa ha haa, haa ha ha ha ha! Only, it’s not so funny, really.
GM’s new new new new new new pre-bankruptcy turnaround plan calls for a dealer cull to end all dealer culls. Until the next dealer cull. “Working with its dealers, GM anticipates reducing its U.S. dealer count from 6,246 in 2008 to 3,605 by the end of 2010, a reduction of 42 percent. This is a further reduction of 500 dealers, and four years sooner, than in the February 17 Plan. The goal is to accomplish this reduction in an orderly, cost-effective, and customer-focused way. This reduction in U.S. dealers will allow for a more competitive dealer network and higher sales effectiveness in all markets. More details on these initiatives will be provided in May.” Yes, how about those details? While “working for dealers” is clear code for a payday, there’s no way GM—and by that I mean you and me—can take the hit any such payoff would require. Or could they? The mind boggles.
GM has released its press release releasing [both] remaining fans of the Pontiac brand from the suspense surrounding its untimely (as in late) demise. “As part of the revised Viability Plan and the need to move faster and further, GM in the U.S. will focus its resources on four core brands, Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC. The Pontiac brand will be phased out by the end of 2010. GM will offer a total of 34 nameplates in 2010, a reduction of 29 percent from 48 nameplates in 2008, reflecting both the reduction in brands and continued emphasis on fewer and stronger entries. This four-brand strategy will enable GM to better focus its new product development programs and provide more competitive levels of market support.” Buick? “The revised plan moves up the resolution of Saab, Saturn, and Hummer to the end of 2009, at the latest.” GM CEO Fritz Henderson put a brave face on the news, ’cause that’s who he is and what he does.
Well, they would, wouldn’t they? Makes sense. Why be caught flat-footed when the inevitable occurs? What makes less sense is that this story, hailing from our good friends over at Automotive News [AN, sub], doesn’t mention Chrysler or GM until the eighth paragraph, and then only in passing. And not before the scribes take a swipe at the Japanese automaker for abandoning The Toyota Way: “The moves violate Toyota’s vaunted ‘just in time’ production philosophy,” AN writes. “which views warehousing as a symbol of muda, or waste and inefficiency.” But hey it’s muda out there!
“The UAW said it reached a deal with Fiat and the U.S. government.” Oops! I forgot the word “also”. I wonder how that happened. Because everyone knows Chrysler’s management is large and in charge, despite the fact that its existence depends entirely on the largesse of the American taxpayer and the success of a cockamamie scheme hatched by a struggling Italian automaker and an unelected quango known as The Presidential Task Force on Automobiles. The Detroit News provides the details of the agreement, which show that the UAW—wait . . . No they don’t. Motown’s hometown paper doesn’t provide any details of the union – Chrysler – Fiat – PTFOA agreement. All we get is this: “The settlement agreement, subject to ratification by UAW members at Chrysler, includes a revision of the 2007 health care deal, and members must approve the deal by Wednesday.” At best, we can assume some sort of health care obligation for equity swap involved. At worst, Uncle Sam will guarantee the union’s health care provisions, regardless of Chrysler’s ultimate fate (i.e., liquidation.) As the DetN recognizes, whatever the fine print, the union deal paves the way for American Leyland.
As the Motown meltdown rushes towards its not-so-final denouement, a clear meme is emerging: blame the bankers. Last week, Detroit News columnist Daniel Howes suggested that Americans will finger Wall Street suits for Chrysler’s collapse. It was an odd not-to-say-jarring proposition—given that Chrysler’s management has done just about everything it could do destroy the automaker’s rep save impregnating car seats with swine flu. Ditto GM. And there’s a darker side to this idea, which I’ve previously resisted mentioning. I believe this line of thinking raises the specter of ye olde “international Jewish banking conspiracy.” I know, I know. Call me a paranoid fantasist (I’ve been called worse). But try reading this Automotive News “analysis” from an anti-Semite’s perspective: “The debate over the U.S. government’s bid to reshape the American auto industry through bankruptcy comes down to this: the spreadsheets of a handful of former investment bankers pitted against the street sense of thousands of U.S. auto dealers fighting to survive.”
China’s Geely denied “its new top-of-the-line car was a copy of a Rolls-Royce, but the world renowned luxury brand said it was keeping its options open about taking legal action,” reports Gasgoo. At the Shanghai Auto Show, Geely showed their Geely GE—an abomination on wheels that looks like a spitting image of a holdover from the stone age, the Rolls Royce Phantom. The story is the talk of blogoville, so we spare you the gory details. Depending on who does the writing and their proficiency in fractional math, the price of the Phantom-twin is either “one sixth lower than” or “one sixth of” the original. Discount Rollers—most likely a reaction to Farago’s article on class warfare.
While “we-are-reviewing-all-our-options” BMW (owner of Roller) is talking to their lawyers, Geely is talking to the press. But not in a smart way.
Newsflash: the United Kingdom has just raised their top tax rate from 40 to 50 percent. That’s before (after?) the country’s 17.5 percent VAT on virtually everything a resident buys—save petrol, alcohol, cigarettes and other items covered by “sin taxes,” which are WAY higher. And council tax. And the rest. Which includes the tax on new car purchases. For company director types, that little item was calculated at 35 percent for the first £80K. After that, nada. But now, it’s 35 percent on the whole schmeer: the complete purchase price. The Times reports that “The move left some luxury-car makers fuming, in particular Bentley, which is owned by Volkswagen but has its factory in Crewe.”
Recent Comments