Sales of the “Imported from Detroit” Chrysler 200 were a modest 2,319 in February. But during the same month a year ago, Chrysler sold 3,160 of the 200’s much-maligned predecessor, the Sebring.
And though the 200 has been in production since December, Chrysler spokesman Ralph Kisiel insists
It’s still in ramp-up mode, and we’ll continue to build volumes over this month and the next several months
But with the updated Avenger selling 3,477 units in the same month (without the benefit of an endlessly drooled-over Super Bowl ad), surely something is afoot here. To the numbers!
Remember the phrase “jobless recovery”? Well, the auto industry is having something of a “price dropping recovery.” The headline for February auto sales may have been “the buyers are back,” but beneath the big volume boosts there’s trouble a-brewing. According to TrueCar’s transaction price forecast (above), Hyundai CEO John Krafcik was right to warn of an industry price war, as the industry has lost .3% of its average transaction price during the last year of recovery. Over the last year, Honda, Kia, Toyota and GM have all seen declines in average transaction prices, led by GM’s staggering two percent drop. And falling transaction prices are just the beginning: as we explore after the jump, incentives are also remaining high, and yet another volume-boosting technique is enjoying a boom as the industry once again starts to redline its sales.
The problem is: The Chinese car market doesn’t seem to be able to read. It just doesn’t want to roll over. It had its big chance last month. China had been closed most of February in observance of the Chinese New Year. Most observers (including myself) had expected minus signs in front of the growth number for February.
First sales numbers are coming if for February, and there are good news and bad news. Read More >
“The consumer is back to the showrooms,” said Brian Johnson, an analyst with Barclays Capital to the Los Angeles Times. No kidding. The consumer is back with a vengeance. February new cars sales were up 27 percent on the year. The world’s two biggest automakers report sales increases we thought only possible in China. Read More >
It’s that time of the month again. Super-efficient Japan traditionally is first out of the gate with previous month sales numbers. Lately, there have been some who regret that efficiency. For the sixth straight month in a row, the Japanese new car market is tired, down, worn-out. Read More >
The analysts RL Polk prove just how hot All Wheel Drive is right now, demonstrating that over a third of all vehicles sold in October and November of last year were equipped with AWD. Even more interesting: last Summer didn’t see the typical seasonal drop in AWD-equipped model sales. Polk’s Tom Libby breaks it down
At the make level, every ongoing make except four enjoyed an increase in AWD/4WD penetration in the September – November 2010 time period when compared to the same time period in the prior year. And the five largest makes based on retail registrations (Toyota, Ford, Honda, Chevrolet and Nissan) all experienced increased AWD/4WD take rates, led by Nissan (up 25%) and Toyota (17%). Lastly, in the 11 months of 2010 for which registration data are available, the two makes with the highest AWD mix among all those that offer both cars and light trucks, Subaru and Audi, have substantially out-performed the industry, with retail registrations up 21% and 20%, respectively, versus the industry gain of 7%.
Everyone doesn’t need AWD, but plenty of people want it… and it’s no coincidence that the two brands most closely associated with AWD (Audi and Subaru) are on sales tears right now. But will AWD continue to climb? Gas prices could put a crimp on the AWD party, but assuming for a moment that gas prices stay flat, where would the AWD fleet mix top out? Will the AWD mix ever hit 50 percent? More?
Hyundai may have taken the unprecedented step of publicizing its sales-weighted Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) number, but as the Korean automaker itself has pointed out, CAFE numbers are based on unadjusted (non-EPA) numbers that do not reflect window sticker ratings. Into that gap step the auto data-philes at TrueCar, who have created the first index of sales-weighted EPA fleet fuel economy for the US market. According to TrueCar’s release
TrueCar is seeking to provide transparency and truth in average fuel economy, providing an alternative view to Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) ratings that can be confusing and misleading. TrueCar’s monthly average fuel economy helps keep in perspective what each manufacturer’s average miles per gallon per car sold using EPA’s window sticker.
Unsurprisingly, Hyundai takes the top average efficiency rating, at 26.6 MPG, while Chrysler trails the pack at 19.5 MPG. More surprisingly: Toyota’s car fleet became 1.6% less efficient in the last year but still held onto its lead at 28.7 MPG. Also, GM’s truck fleet actually became less efficient over the last year, even as Ford and Chrysler’s trucks improved 1.1 and .6 percent respectively. For more fleet average breakdowns by segment, just hit the jump.
Three usually reliable research organizations agree: When automakers release February sales this coming week, they will be strong. Analysts see a sales increase of about 20 percent, and a SAAR in the 12 million territory. Read More >
In January, car imports to Japan shot up 53 percent, reports Automotive News’ [sub]Asia Editor Hans Greimel from Tokyo. Quick, who do you think takes top honors? Read More >
Chrysler just filed its first SEC disclosure in over a decade, providing a peek under the hood of the smallest Detroit automaker. One of the most interesting items: a history of Chrysler’s fleet sales breakouts since 2006. And despite Chrysler’s vows to break its fleet addiction, 2010 saw the firm’s highest fleet percentage since 2006, at 36.1%. Back in the Cerberus days, they held the line at 30%, thank you very much. But then, ChryCo knows how to defend the fleet sales, arguing:
Although our vehicle sales to dealers for sale to retail customers are normally more profitable than our fleet sales, our fleet sales are an important source of revenue and can also be an effective means for marketing our vehicles. Further, fleet orders also help normalize our plant production because they typically involve the delivery of a large, pre-determined quantity of vehicles over several months. Fleet sales are also a source of aftermarket service parts revenue for us and service revenue for our dealers. In recent years, our fleet customers, particularly our commercial and government fleet customers, have tended to order vehicles that are smaller and are more fuel-efficient.
But the best thing about fleet sales? They conceal the steady erosion of consumer demand for your products and brands. After all, at 36.1% fleet mix, Chrysler only sold about 695,000 vehicles to actual retail consumers last year (100k-200k below what the firm’s five-year plan called for).
Dieseldriver.com broke down diesel sales for 2010, and found that December’ diesel sales (7,604 units) were about double the monthly rate for January of last year (3,855), although diesel’s overall market share is not growing at a commensurate rate. For vehicles available in both gas and diesel versions, the diesel take rate over the course of 2010 was 32%. Audi buyers chose diesel powertrains most often where available, with a 48% take rate on diesel versions of the A3 and Q7. Volkswagen had the second-highest take rate at 7%, with its Jetta Sportwagon leading the way with nearly five diesel versions selling for each gas version sold.
Why does Warren Buffett have a headache? For quite a while, China’s BYD had been nothing but a miracle. Now, the Buffett-backed wunderkind turns outcast. To move their cars, BYD slashes prices down to the bone. Read More >
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers finally has returned from the Chinese New Year festivities and got around to counting the real official sales number for China in January 2011. China’s auto sales in January rose 13.81 percent to 1.894 million units. Passenger vehicles did not rise 12.6 percent to 965,238 units in January, as prematurely reported by the Associated Press. Passenger vehicle sales in China rose 16.17 percent to 1.529 million units last month. Read More >
As a site dedicated to arming consumers, industry observers and enthusiasts with as much worthwhile information about the world of cars as possible, we have to give it up for TrueCar. At a time when some automakers are dialing back the amount of data they share with the media and public, TrueCar’s regular data dumps represent one of the best sources of free information about the current state of the car market. And not only is it based on the analysis of millions of transactions, but it’s presented in a format that even the most laid-back of industry armchair quarterbacks can quickly understand. You can find the entire February forecast here, or, check out the gallery below for a TTAC-curated tour of some of the highlights.
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