Scotia Bank in Toronto has an insightful and resourceful car analyst, Carlos Gomes. Whatever he writes is worth reading. He expects car sales to rise and the “United States and the euro zone to climb out of their deep hole.” He also expects that the developed nations are ripe to be plucked and eaten by an upstart, roughhewn  crowd:

“In 2011, new car sales in China and the other BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will surpass the combined volumes of Western Europe and Japan, and account for roughly 30 per cent of global car sales.”

Here is his case: Read More >

German new car sales pierced the previous year line for the first time this year. In December, Germans bought 6.9 percent more cars than in December 2010. However, this is more due to a moderate December 2009 than to an overly strong December 2010. For the year, German new car sales are 23.4 percent below 2009. Read More >

GM China’s 2010 sales numbers did not disappoint. They expected more than 2.3 million cars for 2010 sold in the Middle Kingdom,  they got more than 2.3 million. 2,351,610 units, to be exact, up 28.8 percent compared to a very strong 2009. to a record in 2010. GM is the first global automaker to sell more than 2 million vehicles in China in a single year. And here is the breakdown: Read More >

When it comes to new cars, trucks and buses, Japan’s can look back at the first sales increase in seven years. Sales rose 10.6 percent in all of 2010, powered by the generosity of the Japanese government. The country will remember 2010 with woefulness. This year, the sales will be down hard. After 14 months of government-induced growth, Japan cut the buying incentives last September, and the market keeled over.

December sales gave a preview of sales not to come: Sales were down 28.3 percent in December, according to data provided by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association to The Nikkei [sub]. These numbers do not include mini (“kei”) cars and trucks.

Japan’s total new vehicle sales including minicars rose only 7.5 percent in 2010 from the previous year to a total of 4,956,136 units, the Mainichi Shimbun reports. The total was dragged down by the poorer (sales-) performance of the small cars. Mini vehicles sales rose only 2.3 percent to 1,726,420 units, the Japan Mini Vehicles Association said.

The way the incentive program was set up, it had an immense pull-forward effect. The program had a cash for clunker component, but that was hardly used. Japan doesn’t have the number of old cars like the U.S.A. or Europe. The extra cars bought in 2010 will be sorely missed in 2011. Compared with an artificially high 2010, Japanese domestic  2011 numbers will look very ugly.

As we wade through our year-end sales number reports, one of the important metrics that we’ll be looking at are incentive spending rates. Detroit continues to dominate both Edmunds’ True Cost of Incentives index (above) and TrueCar’s incentive forecast (after the jump), with little serious competition for their supremacy in this profit-sapping and brand equity-squandering category. Still, the foreign firms are increasing their incentives while Detroit has generally scaled back over the last year, so the incentive race is slowly getting tighter…

Read More >

It’s looking like 2010 will end with the auto industry selling 11.5m units in the United States, as the SAAR over the last quarter of the year rose to about 12.4m units. We’ll update our table of December sales results as they become available, and in the meantime we’re preparing some year-end reporting of sales by automaker in the year that was. Stay tuned…

Imaginary acceleration or measurable inattention to quality aside, Toyota’s delightfully arrogant march to world domination continues with the expected introduction of a “wagon-like” Prius at next week’s Detroit Auto Show and a bold statement from the company’s VP of sales.

We will end the decade with Prius being the number one nameplate in the industry… [Camry] will be a close second, and that’s not because there will be a drop in Camry sales.

Read More >

Volkswagen  extended Martin Winterkorn’s CEO contract for another five years, not that anyone doubted that they would do it. The now 63 year old Winterkorn has job security through 2016. In 2016, he’ll be 68, and if Volkswagen hasn’t caught up with Toyota by then, that will be the perfect time to go into retirement. After all, surpassing Toyota is scheduled for 2018. Or maybe not … Read More >

There’s a slightly used 1977 Peugeot 504 on the market, and the last bid stood at one million $.

One owner only: Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. His car was put on an international auction this Saturday, Iranian state media reported as per the Business Recorder. According to Iran’s official IRNA news agency, the bid came from an Arab country. Read More >

You have heard the whole year about the exploding Chinese car market. Surprise: Production growth in the U.S. appears to be stronger than China.  In a few days or weeks, we will have the 2010 sales numbers. In this economy, what’s more important than spending money is making money, and that means jobs. For that, we have to look at the motor vehicle production numbers by country. For those, we will have to wait many months until OICA gets around to tabulating them. Let’s make a best guess estimate for who’s on top and by how much. Read More >

Speaking to CNN, former Shell Oil President John Hofmeister warns that, although American oil consumption may have already peaked, high prices at the pump could come back with a vengeance over the short and medium term.

The issues that gave rise to high priced gasoline in 2007 and 2008 are repeating themselves, except the world demands even more oil in the next several years than before. Asian growth is continuing, e.g. 17 million new cars per year just in China, and will demand more oil. U.S. economic recovery has brought demand back to where it was before. Economic growth means even more demand. But the U.S. Government is prohibiting expansion of U.S. domestic crude oil production which puts upward pressure on global crude oil prices… If we stay on our present course there is no question but that prices will rise to the $5.00 gallon level by 2012 in my opinion.

With profits returning to the auto industry in large part thanks to rebounding sales of large cars and SUV/Crossovers, this is the kind of warning that should ring out in the headquarters of the major manufacturers. Gas prices have been on a subtle upward trend since bottoming out at just over $1.60 in December of 2008, and the national average seems to be creeping up to the level it was at before it skyrocketed to over $4/gal in the Summer of 2008. Which makes you wonder: will the automakers be better prepared to deal with a spike in gas prices this time around?

Read More >

Daimler is unimpressed by Beijing’s plans to limit new vehicle license plates to 240,000 next year. Daimler still expects double-digit car sales growth in China in 2011.

BMW is similarly sanguine. Read More >

Though the final numbers are not quite in yet, according to well-respected Brazilian car market journalist Joel Leite, writing for Brazilian car site webmotors.com.br, the big losers in 2010 are clear. I for one am quite shocked. Of all makers and importers in Brazil, only four lost share. The rest were all able to keep up with market growth and even gain share. Ready? Brazil’s losers are …

Fiat, Volkswagen, Toyota and Honda. Read More >

When GM tried to sell cars via eBay, 45 cars were sold in the first nine days. A month later, the idea was abandoned. Is the idea dead? Not in China. Read More >

Seoul’s Chosun Ilbo sees Hyundai-Kia taking the number 4 spot in global autos sales this year. The podium positions are already spoken for: Volkswagen will take third, the number one position remains a tight race between Toyota and GM.

The Seoul paper sees Hyundai-Kia “overtake the Renault-Nissan alliance to become the world’s fourth largest carmaker. Hyundai ranked fifth last year, with Toyota on top followed by GM, Volkswagen, and Renault-Nissan.”

The trouble is: It’s not true. Even more troubling Hyundai-Kia will most likely topple Ford. Read More >