Never has there been so much confusion over the closely watched Chinese car sales than this month. A relatively unknown China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATRC), anointed by a report in Xinhua, had 40 percent growth for April. Then, all kinds of numbers came out. Chinese numerology was in an April disarray. Even TTAC’s in-house sales oracle, GM China became confused. First, GM reported a gain of 50 percent. A week later, the number was revised to 41.1 percent. (Which would indicate a Chinese market growth in the mid 30s.) We recommended caution. The last word on Chinese auto sales has the China Association of Auto Manufactures (CAAM). And the CAAM has spoken. Read More >
A study by Bosch, using R.L. Polk registration data [via GreenCarCongress], finds that fears of a diesel crash in the US might be overblown. The study found that vehicles offering diesel powertrains as an option recorded 30 percent diesel take levels. By comparison, ten percent or fewer chose hybrid versions of the Camry and Escape, although volumes of those vehicles are higher than the exclusively German nameplates that offer diesel options. In any case, these take numbers are certainly higher than the market had predicted. The diesel take rates by model are:
Chrysler crowed over its 9.1 percent market share in its Q1 results conference call yesterday, and though CEO Sergio Marchionne refused to be pinned down on an exact time frame, an IPO this year looks more likely than ever. Similarly, BusinessWeek reports that GM’s Ed Whitacre has hinted that a Q1 profit is likely, as is an IPO in Q4 of this year or early next year. This improvement in both bailed-out automakers was underlined by former Presidential Auto Task Force head Steve Rattner, who said the two firms were “meeting expectations,” at a Detroit-area conference. But Rattner also put his expectations into some context by saying
When we did this restructuring we never expected a full recovery of our investment. If it ends up costing us $10 billion we should consider it a success. For about $10 billion we avoided economic and human calamities… I would suggest that that’s a pretty effective cost of government stimulus
That assessment is down considerably from Rattner’s last prediction, which expected a taxpayer profit on the auto bailout.
Together with record breaking sales, April brings another surprise to Brazil. VW über alles! Bring out the warm beer and fried sausages, let’s party like it’s the 90s and 80s and 70s and 60s again! VeeDub on top! Not so fast. It depends how you look at it … Read More >
We live to serve here at TTAC, so when our faithful commentators requested a comparative graph of Chevy Suburban and Tahoe Sales from the heart of the SUV boom, who were we to say no? And sure enough, there are some interest lessons to be learned from the exercise. In 1999, as the SUV boom headed for the stratosphere, the ‘burban actually passed the Tahoe in terms of volume for one year. But the fad wouldn’t last: Suburban sales peaked in 2001, a year before the Tahoe topped out at nearly 209k units. The Suburban also fell further, suffering big year-over-year losses until a pre-gas-shock uptick in 2007, a year after the Tahoe recorded its first post-peak upswing. Counter-intuitively, the 2008 gas shock actually hurt Tahoe volumes even worse than Suburban, shedding over 50k units (or about 60 percent) compared to 2007 levels. Over the same period, the Suburban “only” lost 30k units of volume (about 55 percent).
Considering the Suburban so essentially captures the tenuous line between myth and reality in American life, it’s a pity we don’t have 75 years of sales data to put some hard numbers behind the nameplate’s 75 years of history. Luckily, our data does go back to 1995, when America’s whirlwind romance with the SUV was just beginning to get serious. Given that, as Paul points out in today’s history, Suburbans didn’t become popular as family haulers until sometime in the early eighties, it’s safe to assume that 1996-2004 represents the absolute high-water mark for the nameplate’s volume. And ye gods has that volume dropped off ever since.
The predominant critique of the cash-for-clunkers programs that have proven so popular in the US and Europe is that they cause unsustainable demand bubbles which cause sales to collapse after they expire. Sure enough, a look at the German market’s Q1 performance shows that the OEMs who most benefited from the program (primarily firms who focus on low-cost cars) are seeing far more significant declines than US-market firms have seen. In the first three months of this year, firms like Hyundai (-40%), Fiat (-58%), Suzuki (-54.6%) and Kia (-49.4%) have been suffering mightily from a hangover caused by the world’s most generous cash-for-clunker program. But the big news isn’t this small-car bust: it’s the fact that these firms’ success last year have caused the percentage of cars on German roads with electronic stability programs (ESP/ESC) to fall.
The Japanese new car market, long believed to be down, out, and a victim of the dreaded demographic bomb, remains on its steep upward trajectory. With a little help from Japan’s benevolent government. Japan’s domestic sales of new cars, trucks and buses increased 33.5 percent from a year earlier in April, the Japan Automobile Dealers Association said today as per The Nikkei [sub]. That’s up nine months in a row. One brand is especially happy. Name starts with a T. Read More >
To say that Chrysler’s 25 percent year-over-year sales increase last month came as a surprise would be pushing the boundaries of overstatement. Chrysler’s sales and market share have been in decline for a long time, but over the past several years, the tailspin seemed to have become terminal. So, how did the Pentastar (barely) make its 95k minimum volume level and increase sales by 25 percent over April 2009? Fleet sales, for one thing: according to The Freep, TrueCar.com estimates that a full 40 percent of Chrysler’s April sales went to fleet customers.No wonder made a big deal about publicly finding Jesus on the fleet sales issue… at the end of the month (to say nothing of the conspicuous absence of retail sales numbers in its April report and massive increase in Sebring sales). And the bad news doesn’t end there. Not only did Chrysler top all automakers in per-vehicle incentives last month according to Edmunds’ monthly True Cost Of Incentives index with $3,374 on the average Mopar’s hood, they’re actually increasing incentives even further.
One by one, European countries will scrap their scrappage incentives this year (if they haven’t already.) With predictable results: Without the governmental amphetamine, the market will be down. How much? Read More >
When German car sales exploded in 2009, fueled by government incentives, everybody knew there would be hell to pay in 2010. Sure enough, the market cratered in January and February. In March, new car registrations were down 26.6 percent, but at least, they had caught up with 2008 pre-carmageddon levels. So the thinking went: If the market continues that way, it might get back to its old normal, and the pull-forward theorists will be proven wrong. Then came awful April … Read More >
Imagine you’re an automaker which enjoys an unprecedented drivetrain technology advantage over all other manufacturers. Imagine you build a brand around that drivetrain that becomes a cultural touchstone, a symbol of your firm’s technical prowess and commitment to the environment. What do you do next? The obvious answer is to build a luxury version to help make the extra profits needed to pay for the drivetrain’s development, right? Well, Toyota did just that, piggybacking the Lexus HS250h on its strong Lexus brand and Prius technology. The only problem? It’s not working. Read More >
China’s ravenous appetite for new cars shows no signs of restraint. The Chinese news agency Xinhua quotes the China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATRC), which says that sales of domestically made vehicles hit 1.39 million in April, up 40 percent from the same period last year. Read More >
Arriving in Tokyo on a Tuesday noon, I find the Japanese delighted by the news of the rebounding U.S. auto sales.
To their utmost enjoyment, “Toyota’s sales grew at almost the same pace as Ford’s, rising 24.4 percent to 157,439 vehicles from a year earlier,” says The Nikkei [sub]. Read More >
The Volkswagen brand grew sales across all nameplates other than the Chrysler-rebadge Routan minivan, en route to a 42 percent overall volume increase. Audi maintained its momentum, with a 33 percent improvement over its 2009 sales, on strong sales from the A5 and Q5. The new E-Class drove the Mercedes brand to a 21 percent improvement, although Smart was down nearly 50 percent to 680 units. Despite 50+ percent drops in 5- and 6-Series volume, BMW managed to hang onto a nine percent volume increase, including a five percent improvement by the MINI brand. Ze Germans may be focused on China in the long term, but for now they’re back to methodically growing their US-market business.
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