We noted earlier that Chrysler’s turnaround is dependent on Ram and other truck-based models to maintain the steady profit increases projected in its five-year plans. CEO Sergio Marchionne confirmed the importance of body-on-frame vehicles to Chrysler’s US lineup in a recent interview with Automotive News [sub]. “I think it will be very stupid for us to assume the same type of European style and sizing which has driven the automobile portfolio of Fiat Group will prevail in the U.S.” Marchionne tells AN’s Luca Ciferri. Marchionne says Chrysler’s US lineup of full-sized pickups, SUVs, large cars and minivans will see their fuel efficiency improve to keep up with pressures on the market, but that the US linup will not suddenly downsize or work away from its traditional strengths. Marchionne even aknowledged that the Ram brand would continue to be a crucial profit center, just as Fiat Professional-branded  commercial vehicles drive much of Fiat’s profit in Europe. But as another report in Automotive News [sub] explains, the truck market is continuing to erode underfoot. Chevrolet truck marketing executive John Schwegman explains that

in 2005, buyers who chose pickups “primarily for image” accounted for 200,000 to 250,000 annual sales. That fell to about 100,000 in 2008. This year, he says, only about 50,000 personal-use buyers will drive home full-sized pickups.

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Jim Lentz, president of Toyota Motor Sales USA, sure seems to think so. “I think long-term, Prius as a nameplate could even outsell Camry as a nameplate, into this next decade,” he tells Wards Auto. When asked if the Prius’s success would trade off with the Camry, he replied in the negative, saying “I think Prius will become just that much stronger.” But it’s been a long time since a Prius-sized vehicle, let alone a hatchback, has been the best-selling car in the US. And perhaps Lentz was merely making the case for a full line of Prius-branded vehicles, an idea he says has not been approved, but remains his “dream.” Prius will need something to push it past its larger sibling. Both models set their all-time annual sales records in 2007, when the Camry sold 473,108 units, while Prius sold only 181,221 units.

Ford analyst George Pipas reckons the recession is over; the U.S. economy is on its way to recovery. New car sales will, uh, stay the same. “I think that we won’t fall backward from October. How much November might advance from the October level it is too early to say . . . The fourth quarter will be stronger from an auto sales standpoint than a pre-clunkers level.” Translation: the U.S. new car market is bumping along at the bottom. Lest we forget, Pipas’ “pre-clunkers level” promised land was already significantly down from pre-crash volumes. Anyway, Pipas admits that Ford 2010 sales gains will be “modest” thanks to . . . wait for it . . . the perception gap. “[Unemployment] is a drag on consumer psychology. The recession may be over and the recovery may have begun, but for many, many consumers it may not feel like it’s over even 12 months from now.” The Detroit News reports that Pipas also predicts $4 a gallon gas by next summer, cementing the consumer shift towards smaller vehicles. What’s more, “Consumers in the future will be more careful about living within their means.” And if not, even better.

Look at Chrysler’s sales volume by model, and it’s clear that Ram is one of the few nameplates keeping Chrysler’s volume moving. Especially when you consider that pickups typically generate far more profit than car and crossover models. Which brings us to what may have been the most penetrating question of Wednesday’s question-and-answer period (which didn’t come from a journalist, but from investment bank Goldman Sachs). Namely: how does a retraction in the truck market would affect the linear relationship between volume and profit exhibited in Chrysler’s financial plan graphs? Oh yes, and what were Chrysler’s planning projections for energy costs? The answer was that every five percent shift from trucks to compact or mid-sized vehicles would result in a half-billion dollar reduction in EBITDA. Though the CFO added that in the future Chrysler would be better able to capture that shifting market, due to better offerings in the compact and mid-size segments, Marchionne made it clear that any losses in the truck market would be mitigated at best. Marchionne joked that his team would need a Ouija board to forecast energy prices, but the reply was that assumptions in the plan were for gas to be “somewhere in the $4 range.”

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Ferrari singled out their Swedish dealer Autoropa at the brand’s 60th anniversary in Maranello, lauding their high sales stats. A reporter asked CEO Filip Larsson how they managed to sell so many cars in such a small country. “Easy,” Filip said. “We sell two cars instead of one.” Enkel. Unless you pay WAY over the odds to jump the queue for a hot new Ferrari—a practice which would earn some serious ire—there’s always a wait for the latest example of Maranello magic. While customers count the days until their nuova bella macchina assumes its rightful place in their humidity-controlled garage, Filip sells him/her a used Ferrari as a placeholder. ‘Cause it comes to getting a new Ferrari, Ferrari prefers Ferrari owners to own a Ferrari. Or two. Or three. Or more. Meanwhile, over at Porsche . . .

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If the managers at Opel are feeling a little queasy today, this should have them running for the Alka Seltzer (or whatever Germans use). As if to throw (more) gas on the conflagration raging at Opel, Brent Dewar, vice president of Chevrolet, announced at the Reuters Autos Summit in Detroit that GM is targeting sales of 1 million Deawoo-Chevrolets in Europe, double the 500,000 vehicles sold in 2008. Read More >

Hybrid sales in October outpaced the market, increasing 11.4% over October 2008. The heavy lifter as usual, was Toyota, up 15%; Toyota’s hybrids now represent 77% of the total US hybrid market, which is 2.9% of the total market. The Prius continues to dominate the whole hybrid sector, with a 55% market share, and sales of 13,496 units. Prius outsold the Honda Insight by an 8 to 1 margin. Read More >

I just drove by a Tractor Supply Store. The owner festooned the store with a huge banner: “NEVER UNDERSOLD.” In certain states, the price claim must include the word “knowingly.” Which is another way of saying “We say we’ve got the lowest price but it’s your job to find out. If YOU can show us a lower price for an item, we’ll reduce our price to match it. Oh, do you have a written price quote? And you do realize that you’re not comparing apples to apples here. Our price includes our personal guarantee and . . . ” When it comes to this kind of malodorous marketing, car dealers rule. Here are some other examples.

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This graph is representative of a major assumption underlying the entire Chrysler Group turnaround plan: namely, that 2009 is a trough year and that (despite the lack of new mass-market product until 2012) 2010 will see Chrysler not only holding the line on plummeting sales, but actually increasing them dramatically. Where does this optimsim come from? In part, a projected rise in SAAR. Otherwise, the only rationale for this assumption is that the financial plan requires this kind of short-term growth to succeed. [Apologies for the giant images… like Chrysler, we’re doing what we can with what we have]

Edmunds, the site that’s so not going to be sleeping in Lincoln’s bedroom, has revealed their estimates for October sales incentives. Not surprisingly, the automaker that’s been hogging Honest Abe’s pallet and has been missing saying, “we’re number one [globally],” can claim this number one spot. GM spent $4,277 of somebody else’s dollars per unit to move the metal and help buy that 4% sales increase. Hey, don’t complain—they can afford it unlike those wimpy little guys at Honda, who could only cough up $508 per unit. What’s wrong with them anyway? Oh, they’re actually profitable. OK. Moving right along, let’s check in with the rest of the gang: Read More >

We’re a little short-staffed right now (always?), the boss is on the road, and I’m a little bleary from my first day at the helm, so instead of staying up all night building spreadsheets,I’m going to give all you number junkies the links to the various companies’ press releases and their own detail tables and charts. Please share your thoughtful analysis with the rest of us lazy bums.

GM Ford Chrysler Toyota Honda Nissan Hyundai Subaru Mitsubishi Suzuki  VW Daimler BMW

Update: here’s an excellent set of charts and data at WSJ

VW posted a 7% increase in October over the same month a year ago. The Rabbit’s fade-out led the negative column, with a 44% decline. The Jetta posted a solid 25% increase. The Passat, down 41%, is giving way to the CC, which is way up at +256%. The CC now outsells the Passat almost 3 to 1. Since the Passat is going away soon in favor of VW’s new USA mid-sedan, and the CC is going to stay, this trend is probably being engineered through incentives (and the lack thereof).

Audi was down 1% overall. 5 is the magic number for Audi: the A5 was up 28%, and the Q5 is already the second best seller in the lineup. Mid-sized crossovers to the rescue! The more larger/more expensive models, such as A8, R8 and Q7, are taking the biggest hits.

BMW Group was the big loser among the Germans, down 19%. Both the BMW brand (-19%) and Mini (-20%) took the hit equally. The 1 series is sinking, with sales down 57%. The new 7 posted a 10% increase. BMW light trucks (that’s a hard couple of words to type) were down disproportionately, especially the X3, down 86%. The lovely X6 managed a 39% increase.

Daimler overall was up 9%, but that was the result of the Smart’s maxi sized decline of 70%. Ouch! Mercedes was up smartly, with +21%, led by the new E-Class, +190%.

Porsche’s 15% increase in October helped reduce their year-to-date totals to -29%.

[NOTE: Picture above is not the original one posted with the story. If the comments confuse you, this is why.]

The Hyundai knockouts continued unabated in October. Sales in October were up 47% from ’08. Year-to-date totals are up a solid 5%. Total sales for the month were 54k, which is starting to get precariously close to Chrysler’s 66k total for the month. Post to be updated as soon as details for Hyundai and Kia brands are available.

In its first year-over-year sales increase since January 2008, GM posted a 4% increase in October, and estimates a 21% market share. The four core brands (Chevrolet, Buick, GMC, Cadillac), which now account for 95% of GM sales, were up 11.6%.  Year-to-date totals are down 34%.

Cadillac led the way with a 22% increase, reflecting a 280% increase of the new SRX. CTS was down 27%; STS: -44%; DTS: +19%.

GMC had the second highest increase, with a 20% increase. Terrain: +85%; Sierra: +6%; Acadia: +7%; Yukon/Yukon XL: +72%

Buick came in with a 19% increase, led by LaCrosse, beating its last year’s sales by 103%. Enclave: 38%; Lucerne: -28%

Chevrolet brought up the rear, with a 9% increase. Aveo is still lagging, down 54%. Impala also dragged, down 43%. Malibu was up 11%. Camaro sold just over 8k units, continuing its lead in the pony car field. The new Equinox was up 177%; Colorado: -32%; Traverse sold over 9k units. Silverado pickups held even; Tahoe: +111%; Suburban: +72%.