TTAC commentator bumpy ii now blesses us with Old GM new car sales data bounteousness. Click here for the Best and Brightest’s data dump. There’s lots to be gleaned from this raw data, but the one thing we know for sure: no matter how many of what GM sold over the last five years, they didn’t take in more money than they spent. Will New GM reverse the curse? If I was a gambling man unencumbered by my journalistic oath of independence, I’d short the stock. Oh wait . . .
For years GM’s inventory levels have been a major cause for concern. Falling market share lead to overproduction which lead to incentive addiction and falling profitability as GM tried to help its dealers clear their lots. But now that GM has cut production to the bone during its bankruptcy, dealers are beginning to complain to Automotive News [sub] that “right-sizing” is leaving them short on crucial truck and CUV models. GM’s summer shutdown ends on the 13th of July, but a rolling restart means some production won’t come back online until August. In the meantime . . .
The Department of Transportation’s (DOT) is administering the forthcoming Cash For Clunkers (a.k.a. CARS) program. Although the program’s popularity remains to be seen, one thing’s for sure: they’re going in with their eyes wide open. “We’ve spent more time on issues involving potential fraud than anything else,” Spokesman Rae Tyson told us. “If we discover any criminal acts, we’ll hand the cases straight to the Department of Justice for immediate investigation and prosecution.” To that end, the DOT is subcontracting to an as-yet-unnamed third party for an as-yet-unspecified fee to hire an as-yet-unspecified number of “spot checkers.” Hey, you try creating and administering a federal program in 30 days. Truth be told, with just seventeen days left before CARS goes live, the DOT’s still grappling with the basics needed to protect a billion dollars in taxpayer money.
“But, but,” I sputtered, gesticulating in a fashion I hoped was somewhere between acceptably friendly and usefully threatening, “when I reserved online, I specifically chose a Chevrolet Cobalt or similar.” “This is similar,” the smiling woman behind the counter assured me. “It’s very similar. It is also a Chevrolet, and it is the only intermediate we have left.” “Listen, lady,” I said, trying desperately to not sound like a crazy person, “the 1977 Cutlass Supreme Brougham was an intermediate. This is a tin box from Korea.” Despite its obvious absurdity, it was the last even vaguely rational thing I said. Bottom line: they were out of cars here at the Asheville airport. This was what they had left. Although I eventually received a four dollar and twenty-one cent credit to my account, there was no changing the fact that I would have to drive an automatic-transmission Aveo through the Great Smoky Mountains. Oh well. At least I could perform a top-speed test.
It is now. The June U.S. new car sales stats are in and we can see some definite general trends. Newsbusters.org busts some chops for us Inside Baseball auto folk. Chrysler is the biggest loser, shedding five almost six percent market share in the last two years. It would look a LOT more if this chart was chronicling retail sales; some ChryCo models are so fleet it Hertz. As ToMoCo’s also holding the line on incentives, and doesn’t want to look like the bad guy during Motown’s meltdown, they’re probably OK (ish) with a steady 25 percent. Ford gets a big ass bump and surprise! GM is doing better than it was two years ago. (So much for ex-CEO Wagoner’s “bankruptcy will kill us” meme.) Still, one wonders who’s going to get the goodies as Chrysler continues to tank, and GM follows suit.
Commentator dinu01 sent us some Canadian sales data (data day at TTAC) courtesy TheStar.com. “Booming Hyundai Auto Canada, which bucked the market trend this year, broke into the top five for the first time in June as sales surged 25.5 per cent to 10,104. Its sales have shot up 21.4 per cent to 52,454 in the first six months despite the industry’s sharp downturn.” The Korean automaker’s fortunes have soared even as GM and Chrysler Canadian sales have tanked. Hmmm. I wonder what that’s all about . . .
Hyundai has been a big winner in the European cash-for-clunker sweepstakes, and they’re preparing their US dealers for another boom. Bloomberg reports that Hyundai is advancing cash to dealers to “cover new-vehicle credits for consumers until the federal government completes rules for the program later this month and begins paying dealers.” And despite NHTSA warnings that “If a dealer chooses to structure a transaction before the final rule is issued, they will bear the risks associated with later demonstrating that the transaction meets all of the specifications of the final rule,” deals are already being done. A Virginia dealership has already sold the first vehicle under Hyundai’s offer, replacing a 1995 Ford Explorer with an Elantra Touring. With a $15,000 fine threatened for deals that don’t comply with the program’s final rules, this is being done without the approval of the National Automobile Dealers Association.
Toyota‘s sales last month fell 34.6 percent, moving 131,654 units. Bread-and-butter Camry and Corolla sales were down 39 and 54.6 percent respectively. In contrast to calls by the media and government for greater efficiency, sales of the frugal Yaris were down 40 percent, although Prius sales increased 6 percent to nearly 13,000 units. Scion nameplates were all down by 60 percent or more. RAV4 continues to be one of Toyota’s most resilient models, holding steady with a .6 percent increase to just over 10,000 units sold in June. Highlander held on with only a 3.8 percent drop in sales, but other SUVs were off by between 38 percent (Land Cruiser) and 80 percent (FJ Cruiser). On the Lexus front, the RX was up 21 percent and the IS dropped a mere 23 percent. Otherwise Lexus results ranged from mediocre (ES down 34 percent) to bad (GS, LX both down over 60 percent.)
“Retail improvements reflect increasing consumer confidence in GM’s long-term viability: Compared with May, 20 percent jump in cars, 13 percent boost in crossover deliveries.” Sure. I believe that. Consumers bought GM products because they thought, yup, New GM is here to stay! You know . . . when it gets here. Meanwhile, what the hell. We’ll buy a car from Old GM. Comparing June sales to May sales is, at best, disingenuous. (So much for Fritz’ Henderson transparency pledge to the Senate.) Last month was crap, this month is crap, but this month’s retail sales are less crap than last month’s. Anyway, the bottom line is still the bottom line: GM’s sales sunk 33.6 percent in June compared to last June, which, as I pointed out, was a horrible month in an of itself. Make way for the taxpayer-funded spin meisters!
But, like Ford, Chrysler is talking retail. As in Chrysler increased “retail market share more than 1 percentage point compared with June 2008.” Actually retail sales declined 16 percent, and combined with a 95 percent drop in fleet sales (despite selling nearly 3k vehicles to the feds in a single go), Chrysler’s overall sales are down 42 percent compared to June 2008. When sales were off 36 percent year-on-year. Talk about bad to worse.
Before the Friends of the Blue Oval get out their Woo-Hoos, it behooves anyone looking at any of June’s new car sales figures to remember that today’s percentages are all stated in relation to June 2008, which was a tremendously crap month for car dealers. Industry-wide, sales fell 18 percent, as gas prices rose and America’s economic bubble popped like a festering . . . you get the idea. If not, clock this factoid: June ’09 marks the 24th year-over-year monthly decline in the last 25 months. Rose tinted glasses crushed under the jackboot of reality, let’s continue . . . “Ford, Lincoln and Mercury sales totaled 148,153, down 11 percent versus a year ago, which is believed to be the month’s lowest decline among major auto manufacturers.” Yes, it’s that bad out there that doing less bad than the other guys is considered a major victory. Click here for full results. Jump for instant analysis (just add page views). Read More >
“A rapid emergence from bankruptcy creates the highest probability of avoiding the catastrophic and expensive meltdown in GM auto sales that virtually all industry observers predicted,” Harry Wilson of the Presidential Task Force on Autos tells Automotive News [sub]. Note the use of “auto sales.” Because bankrupt automakers don’t sell cars, right?
Automotive News [sub] reports that finals rules for America’s own scrappage scheme will be released on or around July 23rd. The notice comes with a warning to dealers that they are legally responsible for any trade-ins they structure prior to that date. Violators of the program’s rules could face a $15K fine per illegal transaction. And just to add to the mounting concerns about the effectiveness of scrappage schemes, consider the top-10 beneficiaries of the UK’s scheme, via Autoexpress. Hyundai/Kia is the big winner there, although of the vehicles on that list only the Yaris and Fit are sold in the US. Will US automakers benefit from this attempted subsidy considering their weakness in the budget compact segment? Don’t count on it . . .
On paper, the Audi A3 TDI is an exercise in futility. The model shares platform bits with a Golf Rabbit. It’s smaller than a Jetta Sportwagen. It carries a lofty price premium; the diesel-powered A3 “boasts” the same engine that can be had across the street at the Vee-Dub for thousands less. It’s not as fast, sporty or capacious as the rear wheel-drive BMW 335d. By any rational measure, the A3 TDI is an answer to a question that few Americans even thought about asking. Which is why it’s better to judge the A3 TDI “in the flesh.”
And I’m inclined to agree. Hyundai had some of the best sales numbers of 2008, and they rolled out some killer products like the Genesis and Kia Soul. Too bad Forbes based their whole article off of the JD Power Initial Quality Survey.
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