Looks like fifty cars per day is all that is needed from the Trollhätten plant to satisfy world demand. Yes, you heard that right: fifty cars per day, two days per week. With Saab apparently refocusing their production target to 12,000-13,000 cars for 2009, they’re cutting back their already slow schedule of three production days per week to two in some sort of effort to say “hey, we’re not dead yet.” Meanwhile the separate (desperate) search for a buyer for the company continues with Deutsche Bank handling the deal. They’d better act fast: Teknikens Värld says Saab’s piggy bank will be totally empty this summer. So if you’re one of those fifty people that want this Swedish meatball, act fast before they are all försvunnen.

Bloomberg (and a lot of other good-news-hungry outlets) are reporting that a recent surge in used car prices indicates that new car sales may soon rise. The theory: a falling supply of used cars and a glut of new cars will lead buyers back to the new car F&I guy. Of course, that assumes that there’s a falling supply of used cars. For that assumption, the MSM turns to . . . new car dealers: “A survey by Wachovia Securities analyst Rich Kwas showed that 42 percent of dealers report ‘too little’ used-car inventory.” Yes, well, they would do, wouldn’t they? As new car sales plummet, franchised dealers’ supply of used trade-ins declines by, oh, roughly the same amount. Or more. 

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After Germany’s cash-for-clunkers sales surge, it was only a matter of time, and not much of it, before the US followed suit. The idea failed to make into the federal stimulus package (which is like calling an all-you-can-eat buffet a Weight Watchers’ Special). And so, a bill is born. CNNMoney says aloha, clunker-mania.

The bill, introduced Tuesday by Rep. Betty Sutton, D-Ohio, would provide on- the-spot vouchers between $3,000 to $7,500 to consumers who trade in older vehicles for new, more fuel-efficient cars and trucks. The size of the vouchers would vary, depending on the fuel economy of the car being purchased.

The older vehicles, required to have been built at least eight years ago, would be scrapped and their parts recycled, while the new vehicles would have to meet a certain fuel economy standard – 27 mpg on highways for cars, 24 mpg for light trucks, Sutton said. Consumers could also opt to receive a $3,000 voucher toward mass-transit fares.

Sounds great! How could that possibly go wrong? You know . . . other than all the unintended consequences?

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BMW is not doing so well lately. I know; it’s tough all over. But there’s tough and then there’s a 90 percent profit plunge (to €330M). Aside from disappearing revenue, BMW shares something else with America’s domestic manufacturers: denial. Just-auto [sub] reports that Bimmer’s CEO reckons the sun will come out tomorrow. Well, the end of this year, anyway. And then everything will be alright, exactly as planned, ja?

BMW is sticking to the long-term targets set out in its so-called Number One strategy despite the current challenging economic times, the automaker said as it announced a fall in 2008’s net profit of almost 90% on Wednesday.

“2009 will be a transitional year for which we cannot yet make any reliable forecasts. Nevertheless, our long-term profitability targets for 2012 remain intact. We want to preserve the independence of the BMW group,” chairman Norbert Reithofer told the annual accounts press conference in Munich.

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All recessions recede. Eventually. In the case of this recession, it may be the car driving us out of the economic bog. Pent up demand could soon stoke the car market and relieve the general dearth of demand putting downward pressure on the economy. You can see it in our turnover ratio: the total number of registered vehicles in the U.S. divided by the sales rate. As of this quarter it’s 23.9 percent. That’s the highest ever, because it’s ridiculous. Americans are not planning to replace their vehicles once a generation. It can’t be done. My father tried it and the salt-covered roads of upstate New York put holes in that plan. Rust always wins.

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The thesis that name and form are inseparable, a truth endorsed by both the Theravedan Bhuddist text Visuddhi-Magga and Paul Niedermeyer, has found new support in the recently-released Polk Loyalty Study (PDF) (via PR Newswire). Studying brand repurchase and defection rates in Q1 2008, Polk and Co found that 55 percent of owners whose model was discontinued prior to re-entering the market defected to another brand. That compares to 47 percent defection for owners of non-discontinued models from the same brand. The elder Niedermeyer was particularly prescient in pointing out how this dynamic has hurt GM in particular, thanks to its pathological renaming of mid-sized and smaller offerings. This “same name dividend” is as high as 12.7 percent for compact cars according to the report, but fades to a “negligible impact” for large cars and pickups. The Cavalier to Cobalt transition in specific is said by the report to have cost GM “millions in potential sales.”

Ford gets props from anti-bailout folks for being the only Detroit automaker to not seek TARP bailout loans. But as several stories today indicate, Detroit’s putative last man standing is still seeking government sugar, if only in less direct ways than its hapless competitors. Automotive News [sub] reports that Ford is requesting the German government to extend its cash-for-clunker rebate, threatening temporary plant shutdowns if the handout sunsets at the pre-arranged 600K unit mark. “The bonus is smart, simple, and it works,” says Ford sales poobah Ingvar Sviggum. “Here is my appeal to the German government: The bonus is good for the auto industry, the country and for the consumer. So please stay with it. If the scrapping premium is not extended, there will be a dramatic decline in demand in the second half of the year as a result.” Just over 200K of the rebates have been claimed, leaving about 400K still to be claimed in the measure’s original run. But, y’ know, extend it anyway. Or else.

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Germany’s Lidl chain of low-cost grocery stores has begun selling Opel Corsas and VW Polo Crosses online, reports The Age. In partnership with German distributor ATG-Automobile, Lidl is selling the subcompact commuters at about 25 percent below the suggested retail price (11K euros for the Corsa, 14K euros for the VW), offering Germans a new, low-cost way to cash in on Germany’s clunker-culling measure. Some argue that the online sales approach has been tried without success, as Germans prefer to do business with a dealership. “I think it will be very difficult for Lidl,” says Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer of Gelsenkirchen’s Center for Automotive Research. “People don’t want to buy high-value products from a discount grocery store.” Noting that Quelle, a German online marketplace, tried to sell cars online about five years ago, Dudenhoeffer says “it didn’t work, even though their site was visited fairly heavily.” As the automotive industry reinvents itself, however, OEMs will look to every possible sales outlet, transforming the dealer-only approach that has defined the business for years. Whether this approach pays off remains to be seen.

In a recent interview with AutoObserver, Chrysler’s Jim Press tries desperately to state the case that somehow things could be worse at Auburn Hills. In the process he piles on the layers of denial that keep the smallest Detroit automaker senselessly hanging on. “It’s hard to say things are good when sales were only down 25 percent [retail],” press tells AO’s Michelle Krebs. “That’s terrible, but it’s less terrible than the industry decline of 40 percent.” It’s also less terrible than the 44 percent overall sales drop that ChryCo endured last month, but then the fact that Press only mentions retail sales kind of says it all. Especially considering he made AO’s editors include [retail] in his otherwise misleading (or is that self-deluding?) quote. But, “things aren’t so bad,” concludes Press. “At 80,000 vehicles sold in February, we’re doing OK.” Apparently we will know things are bad when Press starts lying about sales rather than pathologically misrepresenting them.

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No, you are not hallucinating. Germany’s February car sales are out. Bottles of champagne will soon follow. Unbelievably, German cars sales rose in February by 21 percent. This is what the Verband der Automobilindustrie (VDA) told Automobilwoche [sub]. 278.000 units were moved. “These are the highest February sales numbers in the last ten years, ” VDA-President Matthias Wissmann said at the Geneva auto show. “For the first time in six months, registrations are growing. We expect that domestic sales of the complete first quarter will be above prior year numbers,” Wissmann said. It’s getting even better, much better:
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Yes, Chrysler LLC total sales were down 44 percent compared to February of 2008, but you wouldn’t know right away from reading Chrysler’s press release. The corporate spinmeisters have gone down the “retail sales” rabbit hole, mentioning only retail numbers in the entire release. The implication, of course, is that Chrysler doesn’t want fleet sales. Or, as Jim Press subtly puts it, “we see our retail number as a shining light of positive news.” More likely though, the fleets are beginning to abandon its ChryCo staples on fears (and experiences) of residual value hell. Ignoring the babble, the overall sales picture is atrocious.

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If you’re looking for uplifting, feel-good news about the auto biz, this is about as good as it gets. Subaru sales edged up about 1 percent compared to February of last year, carried by a staggering 101 percent increase in Forester sales. Subaru sold 5,978 of the recently redesigned, Impreza-based utes last month. All other models were down month-on-month, with Tribeca (−58 percent) and Outback (−37 percent) faring worst. Hyundai sales were down compared to last February, but only by 1.5 percent, a hell of an accomplishment in this market. Genesis is chugging along with 1,263 leaving dealer lots in February, but bread-and-butter Sonata sales are at about half of 2008 levels. Elantra sales are up by over 2k units though. SUV sales are taking an wholly unsurprising beating, while the Entourage sold nearly 2,500 units. Kia (via PRNewswire) is up a whopping .4 percent, with Sedona, Sorento and Amanti all seeing increases over last February. First-ever Kia Soul sales hit only 34 as the newest Kia hits dealerships.

All the bad news is available at GM’s media page. All of GM’s brands were down by at least 50 percent, except for Pontiac which squeaked out a 40 percent drop. Buick sold fewer cars this month than it sold LaCrosses in February of ’08. CTS was the only Cadillac that sold over 1k units this month, and at 3,259, it sold at over double the rate of all other Caddys combined. The Malibu has finally outsold the Impala, as ‘bu sales dropped 3.7 percent to the ’pala’s 67.7 percent. Pontiac sold only 80 G3 Aveo clones, although solid (down 4.8 percent) Vibe sales kept the division’s average at a 39.2 percent drop. Saab sold fewer than 500 vehicles, and the canceled Astra is the only bright spot in the Saturn lineup. Astra sales have increased since it was canceled in December.

Nissan’s sales, too, took a brutal pounding last month, with their trucks particularly leading the plunge. While the Versa held on (5045 this February compared to 5708 in Feb ’08), the Sentra fell 21% and the Altima took a header of 31.5%, falling to 16,002 from last February’s 23,363. The trucks were the true mess though, collectively down 51%. The Frontier collapsing from 4661 to 1617 in February (a 65.3% drop) and the Titan down to 1508 from 3794 (down 60.3%). The Xterra had a similar tragedy, from 3548 to 1105 units (−68.9%) and the Pathfinder, too, was down 60.2% to 1498 in February compared with 3765 in February 2008. The Rogue was a small bright spot, which actually was up a bit to 5500 sales, while the Murano fell from 10,074 to 4126 units. Infiniti limped along with gains from the new FX, but the crucial G sedan and coupe were down 47.5 and 45.7% respectively. That amounts to almost 2700 lost G sales versus last February. Ouch.

Honda took the industry-standard beating last month, emerging with “only” a 35.4 percent sales drop. Unsurprisingly, Honda’s hot Fit kept its head above water: sales increased 2.3 percent in February. Accord and Civic were both down over 30 points. In the SUV category, only the CR-V escaped 40 percent or higher year-on-year monthly sales loss numbers. Acura’s new TSX is up four percent. The rest of Honda’s luxury brand is way down. The attached Honda press release hopes against hope for a spring uptick in sales. The new Insight Hybrid could also revive sales. Meanwhile, Civic Hybrid sales tumbled 21 percent. But with bread and butter Accord and Civic sales down so sharply, Honda will be hurting until the mass market decides it wants new cars again.