One of TTAC’s Best and Brightest sent us this little ditty from Credit Suisse re: U.S. new car sales for October. Needless to say, it’s a jug full of that sucks.

• We expect the October annualized light vehicle selling rate (SAAR) to land in a range of 11.5 – 11.8 million vehicles, the midpoint of which would be about 27% below the year-ago month pace of 16.0 million, and about 7% below last month’s pace of 12.5 million.

• We expect October unit volume (selling day adjusted) to be down in a range of 27% – 29% versus October 2007. The seasonal factors are slightly favorable this month (about 1%), which explains why our projected decline in the SAAR is not quite as deep as our projected decline in volume.

• We look for a modest decline in the truck mix in October, to about 49% from north of 50% in September, as much of the excess truck inventory has been cleared as automakers have cut production schedules and thrown big incentives at pickups, SUVs, and minivans.

• By maker, we see GM sales down in a range of 32% – 34% in October. Market share should suffer sequentially as GM experiences payback from its “employee discount for everyone” program that ran in August and September. We expect share of around 23%, down from 29% in September and 25% in the year-ago month.

• We look for Ford sales to tumble 33% – 35% in October, with market share bouncing to around 13.5%, up from about 12% in September (getting a boost as GM’s share comes back to earth), but down from nearly 15% in the year-ago month.

• We expect Chrysler sales to fall in a range of 32% – 34% in October, with market share coming in around 11%, down slightly from last month, and down about 80 basis points versus the year-ago month.

• Foreign brand sales should fall sharply in October as well, but will be supported by a 0% financing program at Toyota. We expect large sequential share gains for the foreign brands, to north of 52% from just under 48% in September.

• Assuming our sales forecasts are roughly correct for the month, we think inventories are likely to end October more overstocked than they were in September.

• Note that our year-end inventory forecast calls for overall improvement in dealer stocks between the end of Q3 and the end of Q4. But our year-end base case assumed a 13.0 million unit Q4 selling rate. To the extent the selling rate runs closer to 11 million units, fourth quarter production schedules at GM and Ford could be subject to further downward revision.

Huh. Did you know that Chrysler has a business plan, let alone a business plan based on a return to higher gas prices? If you believe everything you read, it does! “As a company, we are looking at a future of high gasoline prices,” Yvonne Malmgren, manager of global sales and incentive communications for Chrysler told Automotive News [AN, sub]. “That is what we expect, and we’re aligning our business plans with that idea in mind.” Don’t pass out, but GM spinmeister John McDonald is singing the same song. “GM is basing its product planning on higher fuel prices, not lower.” Ah, if only we’d heard those words ten years ago. Anyway, the media meme: the return of lower gas prices is stimulating sales of big rigs. In other words, stupid Americans! To be fair, AN is reporting this one fairly; pointing out that a) the rise represents a bigger slice of a MUCH smaller market b) profit-killing incentives have stimulated truck sales and c) the numbers aren’t actually out. (What’s the bet the nets don’t parse this one quite so well?) And just in case you gave ANY credibility to the story… “Says Joel Baker, owner of Baker Cadillac in Leominster, Mass.: ‘When gas was at $4 a gallon, we went for probably a 50-day period when we didn’t show any Escalades. When it hit $3.50, we started seeing some traffic again.'” Some traffic (not quantified), show (not sell). Works for me.

We’ve counted ourselves among the many who laughed bitterly when Volkswagen first announced that it was campaigning to overtake Toyota as the top volume automaker in the world. Well, Automobilwoche Editor Guido Reinking has penned a column for Automotive News [sub] arguing that VW’s Mission: Improbable might just stand a chance. Surprisingly, the column is not a paean to German sachlichkeit in the nationalistic mold of most mainstream German auto journalism. Instead, Reinking makes a bold claim: Toyota, long the 800 pound gorilla of global automakers, may be losing its aura of invulnerability. First he points unconvincingly to Toyota’s 32 percent drop in US sales for the month of September, “worse even than the fall taken by sickly General Motors.” Sure Guido, but keep in mind that those are previous-year percentages, not apples-to-apples…
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Ford truck marketing manager Doug Scott had a little chin wag with Automotive News [sub]. No surprise there, given that the Blue Oval Boyz have just unveiled the new F-150 (recently reviewed on TTAC by our own JB). Nor are Scott’s opening comments about Ford’s full-size pickup startling in any way, shape or manner. Improved access to the bedside (via steps), rear-hinged doors gone because nobody gave a flip about the old version’s flip-out doors, yada yada yada. And then Dougie launches a salvo at The General’s plans to introduce a gas – electric full-size pickup, after the dismal failure of its hybrid full-size SUVs. “It is a publicity stunt,” Doug says, firing the first barrel. “It is no different than what you are seeing with their large SUVs,” he clarifies, loosing the second chamber. Reload. “They are not selling any Tahoe and Yukon hybrids.” Bang. “It’s about something to advertise.” Bang. And now, the knife… “In our case, we chose to have a democratization of technology like EcoBoost. Get more fuel efficiencies out there in mass and volume to as many people as you can, rather than focus all this energy on a very limited application that isn’t going to be really appealing to many people.” So much for that, then.

The Financial Times reports that Toyota’s suffered its first quarterly sales decline “since the months after the September 2001 terrorist attacks, underscoring that even Japan’s biggest carmaker will not escape the worldwide motor industry slump.” Uh, shouldn’t that be the world’s largest automaker? Anyway, ToMoCo global sales were yanked downwards by America’s carmageddon, falling by 4.3 per cent to 2.236m vehicles. As you might expect, the aforementioned worldwide collapse has hit Toyota’s share price hard. The AP reports that Japanese stockholders holding shares in export-heavy domestics are running for the exits, propelled by a soaring yen. “The U.S. dollar… plunged below 93 yen, a 13-year low, as traders reacted to dismal U.S. jobs data that spurred speculation the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates. The combination of the two — the yen’s surge and Sony’s revision — unnerved investors in Tokyo, who dumped shares of exporters like Toyota, Sony and Panasonic.” On the positive side, Toyota’s U.S. Prius production is sending jobs stateside. The Clarion Ledger reports that Mississippi is getting ready to welcome its sixth Prius-related supplier. “Toyota Tsusho America will open a joint venture steel processing facility on the Toyota site.”

With U.S. new car sales set to fall below the most pessimistic of pre-metldown prognostications (ours at 12m p.a.), is it any wonder that Fiat has decided not to brings Alfa Romeo brand stateside? Our resident historians will be glad to recount the absolute ass-kicking Alfa endured in The Land of the Free, but again, this is the worst of all possible times to try and get something started in the American market. Strike that. Just BEFORE the collapse would have been the worst time. This is an excellent time to NOT import mass market Italian cars stateside. And so they aren’t. “Alfa’s U.S. return was originally planned by {Fiat Group and Fiat Group Automobiles CEO Sergio] Marchionne for the final quarter of 2009, then later delayed to the 2010,” Automotive News [sub] reports “In pushing that back another year, Marchionne told analysts, because ‘it would be simply crazy investing for returning Alfa in such a depressed U.S. market.'” And so… “Alfa’s return to the United States will be delayed by a year to 2011.” [TTAC tip: don’t hold you breath.] China after the jump.

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All of them. Including the M3, M5, M6, and Alpina B7. That would be 0.9% financing.

Minimum credit score is tier one (701+). From 24 months to 60 months. The program has been going since October 1, but was not heavily publicized (outside of the Sunday newspaper ads that are usually credibility-free anyway). We’ll be eager to see what the October sales stats look like. I’d imagine someone at BMW HQ will be eager to see them, too.

Glengarry Glen Ross: “We’re adding a little something to this month’s sales contest. As you all know, first prize is a Cadillac Eldorado. Anybody want to see second prize? Second prize is a set of steak knives. Third prize is you’re fired.” If you think times are tough, and they sure as Hell are, imagine being a car salesman. Wait! Imagine being a car salesman trainer. Someone like… Jack Bennett (find him at youshouldsellcars.com, although his mantra is “you can sell cars”). Jack writes a regular column for Dealer Sales & Marketing. So, I wondered how Jack would take the current, uh, “challenges.” “I remember a time when I was working at a dealership and a technician came to the showroom. A salesperson was standing at the window with his hands in his pockets. The tech said, ‘All you sales guys do is stand around with your hands in your pockets.’ The salesperson turned and said, ‘Sometimes my job is to stand here with my hands in my pockets.’ And you know he was right. This salesperson is trained to do one thing: serve people. So when the letters have all been sent out and the follow up calls made, sometimes he has to wait for the people to serve.” Read more? Well it could change your life.

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Bloomberg reports that Toyota has sold more cars in China than GM over the first nine months of this year. Sales at GM’s biggest Chinese venture, Shanghai GM, have been down two years in a row, while Toyota sales have grown at about triple the market average since opening a new Chinese Corolla plant last year. GM has long been the number two automaker in China, trailing only China pioneer VW/Audi for over a decade. (Quite an accomplishment when you consider war-born Chinese antipathy to all things Japanese.) The General’s ouster from the second highest sales spot couldn’t come at a worse time for GM. “China is very important to GM and losing share there makes life even more difficult,” said Daiwa Associate Holdings analyst Ricon Xia. “Japanese automakers know how to make cars for Chinese consumers and they have been expanding in China at a very steady pace.” Needless to say, passing GM in China means Toyota is that much closer to finishing the year as the top-selling automaker in the world, replacing GM after decades of dominance. With growth in the Chinese market slowing, GM will also have fewer opportunities to regain ground on Toyota, who opens yet another giant factory in Guangzhou province next year.

Reuters reports that Mercedes COO Rainer Schmueckle says his company is in a “full blown sales crisis.” In other words, he’s checking his pension plan and prepping his people for a big ass round of layoffs. “While it [Mercedes] has not yet discussed reduced working hours, it has already cut the number of temporary workers. As of the end of June, Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz Cars division that also includes its Smart badge of microcars employed a staff of 98,000 worldwide.” And as that’s about it for this one, how about a tidbit from the world of Mercedes onership, via Kenya’s The Standard? “Police have questioned High Court Judge GBM Kariuki over the stabbing of a motorist after a minor road accident in the city… Police said Justice Kariuki and Kamau were driving from opposite directions on Lower Kabete Road at about 8pm on Saturday when their vehicles were involved in a minor accident. The judge, who was driving his official Mercedes Benz car, was alone at the time of the incident, while Kamau had two passengers in his Toyota Corolla vehicle… The judge seemed disturbed when journalists arrived at the police stations to take his pictures. At one point, he shouted at them, saying they were free to ‘take even his buttocks.'” And do what with them, precisely?

While Buick has helped GM become one of the top-selling firms in China, Chrysler is struggling to sell its own brand of Americana in the Middle Kingdom. Automotive News [sub] paints a dreary picture of Chrysler’s China operations, describing dealerships in glamorous Shanghai with “a sun-faded advertisement for the 300C peeling off the glass,”  and a “rain-streaked shop sign above the main entrance (on which) the colors inside the Chrysler logo have washed out completely.” And between quotes from dealers bemoaning “not so good” recent sales numbers and the lack of Chinese production, AN finds plenty of blame to go around. Though Chrysler had an early inside line on the Chinese market thanks to its Beijing Jeep venture in the early 80s, the Daimler hookup proved disastrous to ChryCo’s Chinese ambitions. “Under DaimlerChrysler, Chrysler was only ever seen as the U.S. unit of a global company,” a Chrysler employee tells AN. “When it came to expansion into China, Chrysler’s needs took a back seat.” As a result, Chryslser sold only 8,207 300Cs, Sebrings and Caravans in China in the first six months of this year. Over the same period, General Motors China sold 261,443 cars and Ford Motor China sold 89,117.

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With GM’s resale values and stock price hovering at record lows, two Texas dealers have come up with one hell of a sales gimmick. Buy a GM vehicle at Frank Kent Motor Co. in Fort Worth, Texas by the end of the month and the owners will give you 50 shares in General Motors. The scheme is advertised as a celebration of GM’s 100th anniversary, but when asked by Automotive News [sub], Frank Kent Motors owners admit that the promotion was actually inspired by the depths to which GM stock had sunk. And while “50 shares of General Motors” sounds better than “$327” (based on GM’s $6.54/share price at the time of writing), the dealers see the stock as (get this) a hedge against depreciation. “Typically when a customer buys a car and they go to trade it in in two or three years, it has depreciated,” Frank Ken Motors owner Will Churchill said. “Hopefully in two or three years (the stock) will probably be worth more.” Or, as we are fond of saying around here, not. There are very few scenarios for GM’s next several years that involve good news for its stock holders, and quite a few that could see your “incentive” stock wiped out to zero. And then all you have is a massively depreciated Aveo (or whatever). And twice the buyers remorse.

No major surprises here, as ChryCo’s AWD option box is ticked on fewer than five percent of Caliber purchases and even less often on Avengbrings. “For the Avenger, the take rate was 1.5% for 2008, and for the Sebring it was at 0.7%.” Chrysler spokesman Jiyan Cadiz tells Ward’sAuto. “So obviously the bottom line is people want fuel economy, and the AWD modules are not profitable for us. That’s something we can get rid of as we’re consolidating products and finding what’s profitable.” And while we wish Chrysler the best of luck in their hunt for “what’s profitable,” AWD supplier BorgWarner has a case of sour grapes for Chrysler. “What we’re seeing in terms of market forecasting is that (AWD) in the B-, C- and D-segments is growing globally,” say BorgWarner’s product business director, Chris Cook, who calls Chrysler’s move an “aberration.” And Cook blames Chrysler’s Jim Press, lately of ToMoCo. “Press comes from Toyota (Motor Corp.), where they don’t have AWD on a lot of vehicles (in those segments),” Cook says. “So (the decision) was philosophical.” Or rational. Anyone who wants an AWD Caliber can always spring for a Jeep Compass, and AWD has always been an under-advertised afterthought on the Sebring and Avenger. In fact, Press’s Toyota roots don’t make him “anti-AWD.” Toyota’s partial ownership of Subaru proves that a dedicated AWD-peddling niche brand (hello, Jeep) allows the mainstream brand to focus on efficiency and affordability. And with CAFE bumps looming, offering AWD on every model “because you can” makes less and less sense every day.

I once made the mistake of asking Jim Dollinger to fax me over a list of all the GM incentives in play. I swear to God I threw away my fax machine afterwards; I ran out of that stupid carbon crap at 15 pages, and we’re talking about a non-mid-life compatible typeface size. Anyway, now that GM’s last– I mean “latest” Employee Pricing for Everyone Sale is done, the automaker’s amping-up the incentives to its last redoubt: GM employees. (If you doubt it’s a readoubt, read out this pdf re: GM North Central’s sales figures). Automotive News [sub] reports that the General’s offering the discounts to “GM employees and their extended family members, and employees of GM suppliers and GM dealerships — essentially anyone who knows anyone who knows someone who qualifies for the GM employee purchase price, said Jim Bunnell, executive director of GM’s channel support group.” Support group? Do they hold hands and sing Kumbaya? Anyway it’s an extra grand (The Chevrolet Malibu, Traverse and Avalanche; GMC Acadia; Saturn Outlook; Buick Enclave; Hummer H3; Cadillac CTS; and light- and heavy-duty versions of Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra extended-cab and crew-cab pickups) or two (Chevrolet Impala, Pontiac G6, Saturn Aura, Buick Lucerne, Saab 9-7X, Cadillac Escalade, Hummer H2 and light-duty versions of the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra regular-cab pickups) on the hood.

Just as Costco and WalMart are doing relatively well in difficult times, the Wall Street Journal reports that while Hyundai USA’s sales are down, their market share is increasing.  Industry wide sales in September were reportedly down 27% while Hyundai was “only” down 25%.  Technically that does add up to a miniscule market share increase, but hardly anything to write home about.  Hyundai has also just released the Genesis Coupe in Korea, taking aim at the likes of the Infiniti G37.  Considering how much Sajeev liked the sedan, we are looking forward to the March 2009 US availability of the coupe. (Though Berkowitz not nearly as much).  In their heydey the Thunderbird, Toronado, Eldorado and Mark VII were cars everyone aspired to; lately, not so much. But, with everything old suddenly new again perhaps there will be a revival of the luxurious coupe.  With a starting price under $25,000 the Genesis Coupe might just be onto something. Or not.